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SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the
latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections
by John Richardson: I used to say to
clients, when presenting charts such as the
main chart in today’s blog, “This is very
unlikely to happen”.
I would say, for example, that there was no
real chance that global high-density
polyethylene (HDPE) operating rates would
average 76% between 2023 and 2030 compared with
88% in 2000-2022.
My message was that project cancellations and
strong demand growth would quickly bring
markets back into balance.
Now I am not so sure because of the impact on
demand the end of the China property bubble,
its ageing population, ageing populations
elsewhere, sustainability and the effects of
climate change.
China could become almost completely
self-sufficient in all three grades of PE by
2030.
There are rumours of many
crude-oil-to-chemicals (COTC) investments in
the Middle East that have yet to be officially
announced. China’s push to balanced positions
in the above products is expected to receive
big support from COTC projects.
There’s also a big wave of new ethane crackers
being planned in the Middle East and North
America.
This business could end up being largely
dominated by oil and gas majors integrated
downstream into petrochemicals.
Even in a world of persistently very low
operating rates, the Supermajors may continue
to build new plants.
This is because the Supermajors would have
excellent cost-per-tonne economics – and they
may need to maintain oil production as
electrification of transport gathers pace.
There is a scenario this leads to a major wave
of capacity closures in Europe, Southeast Asian
and Northeast Asia that return operating rates
to normal.
Instead, though, what about jobs? In my 26
November post, I said that every one job lost
through a refinery or petrochemical plant
closure equalled six jobs lost downstream.
“More like 12,” I was told by a contact.
Even if petrochemical plants on a standalone
basis continue to lose money, we might see
government intervention to maintain employment.
Refineries may need to continue to run for
security of local fuels supply in a very
uncertain geopolitical world.
In countries such as South Korea and Thailand,
petrochemical companies are important for
broader economic growth.
Another argument supporting long-term low
operating rates is the scale of the shutdowns
required to bring markets back into balance.
Sticking to HDPE an example, and assuming
China’s demand grows at an annual average of 5%
between 2023 and 2030 (which is our base case),
global capacity would have to be an average
1.8m tonnes a year lower than our base case for
operating rates to return to their 2000-2022
average of 88%.
This demonstrates that the range and depth of
your scenario planning needs to be stepped up
to deal with the New Petrochemicals Landscape.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
05-Dec-2023
Brazil’s cabinet working to lower natgas prices, increase
chemicals competitiveness – vice president
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The Brazilian government is
working to reduce natural gas prices to help
the chemicals industry and aims to reduce the
so-called ‘Brazil cost’ of doing business in
the country, its vice president said on Monday.
Geraldo Alckmin, who also leads Brazil’s
Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and
Services (MDIC), added the cabinet presided by
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva since January is
“aware” of the difficulties the chemicals
industry faces due to high input costs and the
competition from more competitive imports.
Alckmin, currently acting president as Lula is
travelling in Europe after taking part in the
UN’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai, was
speaking to delegates at the annual assembly of
Brazil’s chemicals trade group Abiquim in Sao
Paulo.
NATURAL GASThe vice
president conceded the country’s high natural
gas prices, compared with the US, the other
large chemicals producer in the Americas, are a
drag for an industry he considered key to
rebuild Brazil’s industrial fabric, a target
set by Lula to create more manufacturing jobs.
“Lula established MDIC to focus on creating
industrial jobs and expand manufacturing. We
are aware we have a problem with energy costs
and natural gas costs in Brazil. In the US,
natural gas prices stand at around $4.5/MMbtu,
while in Brazil they stand at around
$12/MMbtu,” said Alckmin.
“Natural gas prices in Brazil have fallen
slightly and the government is working towards
achieving a larger fall.”
Brazil’s cabinet has a commanding voice in the
decisions taken by Petrobras, the state-owned
energy major, which is a large producer of
crude oil and natural gas.
However, Brazil’s gas needs are hardly covered
by domestic demand and the country is heavily
import dependent. Abiquim has for years been
saying that more domestic output of natural gas
and associated natural gas liquids (NGLs) is
key
to help the competitiveness of the
chemicals industry globally.
However, given the unmet demand in the
residential sector as well as the fertilizers
industry, some petrochemicals players think
the
sector would come last in the list of
priorities in the case of higher domestic
natural gas output.
Alckmin said there were “some good news” as
Brazil’s domestic output could increase
considerably in 2024 as Petrobras finalises the
long-running
construction of infrastructure to bring gas
from offshore fields to its Itaborai facilities
in Rio de Janeiro.
“In 2023, Brazil produced 50m cubic metres
[cbm] and this could increase in 2024 by more
than 15m cbm at Itaborai. Extracting gas in the
US is easier than here: they do it inland, we
do it 3km offshore and at 5km depth [in
pre-salt fields],” said Alckmin.
“Brazil can increase domestic natural
production and that will have a positive effect
in strategic industrial sectors such as
chemicals.”
Brazil’s polymers producer Braskem, Latin
America’s largest petrochemicals company, has
repeatedly said that more NGLs output at
Itaborai would allow
it to expand its facilities in Duque de
Caxias, Rio de Janeiro.
BRAZIL COST: LESS
REGULATIONThe so-called ‘Brazil
cost’ (Custo Brasil in Portuguese) refers to
the country’s barriers to doing business,
ranging from the regulatory and tax burdens,
the existence of cartels in several economic
sectors, corruption in public bodies, or a
complex fiscal legislation, among many others.
Alckmin said the government is working hard to
pass the fiscal reform currently being debated
in parliament, which would simplify the several
taxes Brazilian households and corporates have
to pay.
He said around 10% of the Brazil cost comes
from the regulatory burden, and he listed the
three key protectionist measures passed by the
government this year, all of them reversing
decisions taken by the prior Jair Bolsonaro
Administration.
“We are aware of the chemicals industry’s
competitive problems, not least with the global
fall in prices which have caused imports into
Brazil to rise sharply. That is why, in April,
we reverted the fall in
import tariffs in some polymers, and
did
so again in November,” he said.
“We have also
brought back REIQ [a tax break for some
chemical inputs], which is also to greatly help
the sector.”
Alckmin preferred to see the glass half full
when it came to Brazil’s economy, which this
year greatly surpassed
expectations thanks to a strong
agricultural season.
Inflation has
fallen since the 2022 peaks, which has
prompted the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) to
lower interest rates three times since August,
although “they remain high” at 12.25%, added
the vice president.
“However, we cannot rest in our laurels.
Improving the competitiveness of Brazil’s
economy remains our great challenge,” he
concluded.
Front page picture: Brazil’s vice president
Geraldo Alckmin at the annual assembly of
chemicals trade group Abiquim
Source: ICIS
04-Dec-2023
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 1 December.
US natural R-HDPE
prices return to 2022 premium over
virgin
The premium between natural post-consumer
recycled high density polyethylene (R-HDPE)
resin and its virgin high density polyethylene
(HDPE) counterpart has now fallen to levels not
seen since this time last year, a trend that
may incentivize demand.
Dow makes FID on
Canada net-zero cracker project, construction
to start next year
Dow’s board of directors has made a final
investment decision (FID) to proceed with the
“Path2Zero” cracker project at the company’s
site in Fort Saskatchewan in Canada’s Alberta
province, officials said on Tuesday.
US chemical
volumes to rebound slightly in 2024 with
destocking mostly over – ACC
economist
US chemical volumes are poised to rebound
modestly in 2024 as inventories are low and
destocking is largely done across most value
chains, said the chief economist of the
American Chemistry Council (ACC).
US ethylene
market long as crackers return from
outages
The US ethylene market remains long with
sufficient supply, weak demand and recent
operating rates in the high 70% range. Several
crackers have recently restarted which will add
length to supply.
Brazil’s polymers
players unfazed by import tariff hike,
producers upbeat
Brazilian petrochemicals sources have said the
slight hike in polymers’ import tariffs will
have little overall impact, although it is
expected to help shore up margins for domestic
producers.
US base oils
demand on track to hit 40-year lows with 19%
decline in 2023 – ICIS
US base oils demand has plunged this year and
is set to hit 40-year lows as the market
responds to consistently elevated prices amid a
relatively weak economy, ICIS experts said.
Argentina bracing
for ‘very tough’ H1, but healthier growth could
follow – Anastacio CEO
Argentina is to have a “very, very tough” first
half of 2024 as President-elect Javier Milei
implements a shock therapy for the beleaguered
economy, but a healthier country should emerge
from the trauma, said the CEO at Brazilian
chemicals distributor Quimica Anastacio.
North America ICE
car parc to decline very slowly through 2030 –
ICIS economist
The North America car parc – the number of
vehicles on the road – for internal combustion
engine (ICE) vehicles is expected to peak by
2025 and only decline slowly through 2030,
supporting demand for lubricants, said an ICIS
economist.
04-Dec-2023
NEWSBrazil’s Braskem
monitoring Alagoas mine as collapse risk
emergency declared
Braskem continues “to be mobilized and
monitoring” the situation at mine 18 of its
facilities in Alagoas, north Brazil, after the
municipality declared an emergency due to the
imminent risk of collapse, the Brazilian
petrochemicals major said on Friday.
Mexico’s manufacturing
expands strongly in November
Mexico’s manufacturing sectors continued
expanding in November at a healthy rate as
output and job creation rose on the back of
healthy demand, analysts at S&P Global said
on Friday.
Brazil’s manufacturing
contracts again in November but ‘positive
pockets’ spring up
Brazil’s manufacturing sectors remained in
contraction territory in November, but a few
“positive pockets” appeared with job creation
steady, more positive sentiment and softer
falls in sales and production, analysts at
S&P Global said on Friday.
Argentina bracing for
‘very tough’ H1, but healthier growth could
follow – Anastacio CEO
Argentina is to have a “very, very tough” first
half of 2024 as President-elect Javier Milei
implements a shock therapy for the beleaguered
economy, but a healthier country should emerge
from the trauma, said the CEO at Brazilian
chemicals distributor Quimica Anastacio.
Brazil’s polymers players
unfazed by import tariff hike, producers
upbeat
Brazilian petrochemicals sources have said the
slight hike in polymers’ import tariffs will
have little overall impact, although it is
expected to help shore up margins for domestic
producers.
Brazil’s Grepar to take
legal action against Petrobras after refinery
sale cancelled
Grepar will take legal action and seek
compensation from Petrobras after the Brazilian
energy major unilaterally cancelled the sale of
its Lubnor refinery, the prospective buyer said
late on Monday.
Brazil’s chemicals trade
deficit expected at $47bn in 2023
Brazil’s chemicals trade deficit is expected to
reach $47bn this year as imports continue by
far outpacing exports, the country’s chemicals
trade group Abiquim said on Monday.
PRICINGArgentina political
scenario may change PET imports in the short
term
The Argentine polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
market continues to face challenges in
bringing feedstock to the country, which
slightly limits PET resin availability in
November. Prices for PET are flat; however,
potential price fluctuation remains possible
based on the future political scenario in the
country.
Lat
Am PP domestic, international prices steady on
high feedstock costs
Domestic polypropylene (PP) prices were
assessed as steady across Latin American
countries on the back of stable international
prices and high feedstock costs.
LatAm
international PE prices stable to soft on lower
US export offers
International polyethylene (PE) prices were
assessed as stable to soft across the
region on the back of competitive offers from
the US.
04-Dec-2023
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s high levels of
chemicals imports are a “sensitive” issue
because while they bite into domestic
producers’ market share, smaller players
require the “competitive” prices offered by
cheaper overseas material, according to the CEO
at Brazilian chemicals distributor Quimica
Anastacio.
Jan Krueder added that this issue remains a
“key challenge” for the government of Luiz
Inacio Lula da Silva as it tries to balance out
the interest of domestic, large producers and
those of players down the value chain who, in
his view, are the ones with more impact on job
creation and the expansion of manufacturing
Lula advocates for.
Earlier in November, Brazil hiked import
tariffs for some polymers after intense
lobbying from domestic producers, represented
by chemicals trade group Abiquim. Sources on
other sides of the market such as distribution,
however,
were less enthusiastic about a measure
which is to increase their costs slightly.
It was the third protectionist policy towards
chemicals taken by the Brazilian government
this year. In April, it had
already hiked
import tariffs on certain polymers and
rubber and, earlier in November, a tax break
for the sector that was withdrawn by the
previous Administration, known as REIQ,
was reinstated.
“Domestic producers are having to deal with
tough competition coming from Asian material,
which obviously they don’t like. It is true
that these companies are big investors, and are
strategic for Brazil to have healthy basic
chemicals industries,” said Krueder.
“But I have a more liberal view [regarding
protectionism]. We must pay attention to the
competitiveness of small and medium companies:
they create thousands of jobs, and these firms
need competitive raw materials. Equally, it is
in the downstream chain where manufacturing
adds value by reaching end consumers both at
home and abroad, increasing exports.”
Krueder went on to say that this dichotomy will
be one of Lula’s recurrent challenges in coming
years, not only in chemicals but in other
industrial sectors where large and domestic
producers dominate the market.
“It is a very sensitive discussion. We will
need to find a balance which enables these
[large, domestic] companies to stay in business
with all the challenges they face on high input
costs and so on. But you also must pay
attention all these other smaller companies
have access to competitively priced raw
materials,” he said.
“This is one of the biggest challenges for the
government: to find the middle ground in this
difficult issue.”
LULA 3: CLEARER POLICY
NOWIn a prior
interview with ICIS in June, Krueder said
the new Administration of Lula – in office
since January – remained an unknown when it
came to economic policy.
By now, the CEO said things are becoming
clearer but said the government should put more
efforts onto undertaking structural reforms in
Brazil which could prop up investments and job
creation.
“Perhaps Brazil’s DNA is sightlier more
conservative than other Latin American
countries, and governments will never be able
to go too much to the right or too much to the
left. We have a strong Congress to
counterbalance the Executive, a strong legal
system, and an independent central bank,” said
Krueder.
“They say they want to reduce the budget
deficit, and that is good, but the problem I
see is an unwillingness to implement important
administrative and structural reforms to reduce
the size of the state. All in all, the new
government is not as good as it could be, but
it is not as bad as some people had feared,
either.”
Interview article by Jonathan
Lopez
04-Dec-2023
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Petrochemicals producers in
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are facing
strong earnings headwinds as a result of the
global downturn in demand, which has pressured
production margins and earnings growth this
year.
The slow growth environment also casts a shadow
over planned sustainability projects as part of
a wider push towards decarbonisation and green
chemicals.
However, a more positive global economic
outlook driven by easing inflation and expected
interest rate cuts is driving new hopes for the
petrochemicals sector in 2024, said Jassim
Al-Jubran, the head of sell-side research at
Saudi-based brokerage AlJazira.
The GCC petrochemical sector profitability is
likely to improve after a weak performance this
year due to global economic concerns,
inflationary pressures, and high interest
rates.
“The recovery in product prices is likely to
receive support from higher oil prices,
expected acceleration in China’s recovery
underpinned by government support, lower
feedstock costs, reduced shipping costs and
normalised supply chain issues,” Al-Jubran
said.
“Prices are now close to the COVID-19 level and
substantially below historical averages. Thus,
we believe there is limited further downside
risk and recovery may kick off during 2024,” he
added.
In Saudi Arabia, major producers reported sharp
earnings losses for the first nine months of
this year as lower product prices outweighed
generally improved production volumes.
Chemicals giant SABIC filed a net loss of Saudi
Saudi Riyal (SR) 1.04bn for the first nine
months of this year versus the SR16.2bn profit
in the same period of 2022 as sales dropped by
25%, while Sahara International Petrochemical
Co (Sipchem) posted a 67% drop in net income.
The stagnation in global demand for chemicals
led to a decrease in average selling prices and
a decline the value of sales by SR7.3bn Saudi
riyals in the third quarter, SABIC said.
In the UAE, polyolefins major Borouge reported
a 39% year-on-year decline in its nine-month
net profit to $713m despite a 2% increase in
revenue.
“The overall polyolefins market remains
challenging, with pricing expected to operate
within a narrow band of volatility throughout
the fourth quarter of 2023,” the company said
in an earnings statement on 30 October.
In its latest half-yearly earnings report in
August, Kuwait’s EQUATE Group said that its net
income after tax fell 83% year on year in the
January-June period to $89m, with sales down by
32%.
The EQUATE Group includes EQUATE Petrochemical
Company (EQUATE), The Kuwait Olefins Company
(TKOC), as well as a number of subsidiaries
such as MEGlobal and Equipolymers.
Commenting on the results, Naser Aldousari,
President and CEO of EQUATE Group, said:
“EQUATE continues to maintain a distinguished
operational performance although it has
experienced lower year-over-year sales and
earnings due to ample supply and sluggish
market conditions.
In Oman, state energy firm OQ reported a 48.8%
decline in its half-year net profit to $1.09bn,
with revenues weighed partly by a decline in
the downstream segment amid lower refining
margins.
“Chemicals products experienced distress as a
result of market turbulence in Europe, and
elevated feedstock gas prices,” it said in
presentation slides for investors.
LONG-TERM COMMITMENT TOWARDS GREEN
GOALS REMAINS STRONGDespite the
near-term challenges to their bottom lines,
several chemical producers across the GCC have
furthered their sustainability efforts via
carbon reduction projects, as well as advanced
recycling and recovery.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia, in particular, have
set ambitious goals for the production of
decarbonized hydrogen and serving the global
hydrogen market.
In Saudi Arabia, Aramco, TotalEnergies, and
SABIC in July announced that they have for the
first time in the Middle East and North Africa
successfully converted oil derived from plastic
waste into ISCC+ certified circular polymers.
The plastic pyrolysis oil, also called plastic
waste derived oil (PDO), was processed at the
SATORP refinery jointly owned by Aramco and
TotalEnergies, in Jubail, Saudi Arabia.
It was then used as a feedstock by PETROKEMYA,
a SABIC affiliate, to produce certified
circular polymers.
In Geleen, the Netherlands, SABIC – in a joint
venture with technology firm Plastic Energy –
is currently building its first pyrolysis-based
chemical recycling plant, which will use mixed
plastic waste as feedstock. The plant is due
for start-up in Q4 2023.
In October, Borouge announced that it has
signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with
India’s APPL Industries Ltd (APPL), to develop
polymer compounds that will incorporate
recycled content, marking its first venture
with an Indian compounding partner to create
products with recycled material.
Global and regional chemical players are
gathered for the 17th Gulf Petrochemicals and
Chemicals (GPCA) Forum with carbon neutrality
issues continuing to be high on the agenda amid
an upcoming wave of new downstream regional
capacities in the next couple of years.
The GPCA Forum will take place for the first
time in Doha, Qatar from 3-6 December 2023,
with the theme “Mobilizing Chemistry for
Impactful Transformation”.
Thumbnail photo shows the logo for the 17th
Annual GPCA Forum to be held in Doha, Qatar on
3-6 December (Source: Gulf Petrochemicals and
Chemicals Association)
Insight by Nurluqman Suratman
04-Dec-2023
LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the
latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy
by Paul Hodges, which highlights how central
banks are beginning to realise that
demographics are destiny for the economy.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of
consultants New
Normal Consulting.
04-Dec-2023
MUMBAI (ICIS)–State-owned Indian Oil Corp
(IOC) has pushed back completion of its Panipat
Refinery and Petrochemical Complex expansion by
more than a year to 2025, with the project cost
raised by 10% to rupees (Rs) 362.3bn ($4.4bn).
The refinery’s capacity is being expanded to
25m tonnes/year from the current 15m
tonnes/year and build a 450,000 tonne/year
polypropylene (PP) plant among other downstream
units at the site.
IOC now expects to complete the expansion
project by December 2025, against its earlier
target of September 2024, the company said in a
disclosure to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)
on 1 December.
The company did not provide any reasons for the
extension in the completion deadline.
In July, IOC selected engineering and
construction firm McDermott for the
expansion project, which includes phase II
expansion of the naphtha cracker at the site,
along with downstream PP and new ethylene
derivative units.
McDermott is also executing IOC’s 120,000 tonnes/year
maleic anhydride project at the complex.
Other chemicals including butanediol (BDO) used
to produce engineering-grade plastic and
biodegradable fibres, and tetra hydro furan
(THF) used in adhesives and vinyl film will
also be produced in Panipat.
IOC is also building a 60,000 tonnes/year
polybutadiene rubber (PBR) plant and a
387,000 tonne/year
styrene monomer unit at the site.
($1 = Rs83.33)
04-Dec-2023
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories
from ICIS Europe for the week ended 1 December.
INSIGHT: COP28 pushes
climate emergency, chemicals regulation up the
agenda
With the COP28 climate summit in Dubai now
underway, there is a renewed focus on the
climate emergency – what has (or has not) been
achieved so far and what steps need to be taken
on the road towards a net zero carbon future.
Eurozone inflation tipped
to fall closer to ECB target in
November
Eurozone inflation continued to fall closer to
the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target,
according to flash data released by the EU’s
statistics agency Eurostat on Thursday.
Energy crisis drives 45%
increase in efficiency spending since 2020 –
IEA
The energy crisis brought about by the
Russia-Ukraine war has driven a sharp increase
in energy efficiency demand and policies, with
growth in heat pump and electricity vehicle
(EV) purchases helping to drive the
improvements, according to the International
Energy Agency (IEA).
INSIGHT: New packaging
waste regulation draft could prove
controversial
The latest draft of the Packaging and Packaging
Waste Regulation (PPWR) – which passed its
plenary vote in the EU Parliament on Wednesday
22 November – brings further sweeping changes
to the proposed legislation, some of which are
likely to prove controversial.
Europe automotive sector
faces up to prospect of mandatory recycling
targets
The European Commission’s draft end-of-life
vehicles (ELVs) directive could force the
automotive industry into the world of recycled
plastic content targets – and the struggle to
find adequate feedstocks that comes with it.
04-Dec-2023
DOHA (ICIS)–Global demand for petrochemicals
will continue to grow at a rapid pace even as
the industry ramps up decarbonisation efforts
to meet climate change goals, Saudi Arabia’s
energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman
said on Sunday.
“Petrochemicals are here to stay, and the
hydrocarbon sector will continue to generate
income and generate money for investors,”
Abdulaziz told delegates at the annual Gulf
Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA)
in Doha, Qatar.
Globally, the fast growth in the petrochemical
sector will be reflected in greater demand for
hydrocarbons as a feedstock, he said, adding
that the industry is expected to grow by more
than 50% to around 1.2tr tonnes/year by 2040,
with demand for basic chemicals such as
ethylene and propylene growing by more than
60%.
“To capture this global growth and play a role
in meeting the future demand for
petrochemicals, Saudi Arabia’s strategy in
petrochemicals aim at maximizing added value,
while minimizing the carbon footprint… by
focusing on liquids to chemicals and upgrading
low value streams that being burned as fuel to
feedstock for petrochemicals,” he said.
The industry is now advancing through
leveraging innovative and emerging technologies
to maximise the yield of crude oil and
conventional fuel into petrochemicals,
Abdulaziz said.
Given that green and low carbon chemicals are
at the heart of the Kingdom’s sustainability
goals, Saudi Arabia is assessing production of
sustainable and low carbon chemicals, such as
e-methanol and clean urea by building a carbon
dioxide utilization hub, he said.
E-methanol is produced with renewable energy.
“We envision the hub will maximise the value
for carbon dioxide and enable a new green
industry in the Kingdom’s planned clean energy
economy.”
Saudi Arabia is expanding its portfolio with at
least four projects coming online in the next
few years, and many more that focus on liquids
to chemicals, the minister added.
The country, which is the world’s biggest crude
exporter, is the de facto leader of oil cartel
OPEC.
The 17th Annual GPCA Forum runs from 3-6
December.
Thumbnail image: Saudi energy minister
Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman at GPCA in Doha,
Qatar. (Source: GPCA)
04-Dec-2023
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