SITGES, Spain (ICIS)–Chemical companies will find it easier to charge a green premium as the cost of carbon increases, fossil feedstock availability declines and customers realize the true value of the products they are buying. The cost of living crisis and poor profitability down industrial value chains mean that companies are resistant to paying more for low carbon and more sustainable products. But that will change as regulators push up the cost of carbon content in materials while the switch away from fossil fuels will make green alternatives more attractive, according to panel speakers at  the Fecc (European Association of Chemical Distributors) annual congress in Sitges, Spain. They argue that people will be willing to pay a green premium once there is regulatory support for carbon pricing, which will incentivize customers to take account of the savings low carbon products offer. Richard Jenkins, senior vice president for coatings solutions at France’s Arkema said: “The number of carbon credits will reduce, the number of companies seeking them will increase, and this will drive up the value of CO2 avoidance. So when I’m sitting in front of customers, I’m telling them they have to consider the whole cost of carbon – it might cost more per unit but overall you are saving on the costs of CO2.” The EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS) works under the principle of “cap and trade” where  companies are granted allowances for the maximum amount of CO2 they may emit from their facilities. They may buy and sell their allowances but the overall volume is steadily reduced each year in line with the EU’s climate targets. As they become more scarce, the price tends to increase. Georg Winkler, senior partner for consultants McKinsey & Company added: “If you decarbonize polyethylene (PE) packaging and then break down the actual costs, they are tiny – this should only change the price of the product by a cent or so. Also, if we have a single-use-plastics tax in Europe then we can point out the cost saving to our customers.” Ib Jensen, president and CEO of Swedish specialty chemicals group Perstorp said: “I don’t like the term green premium; I prefer the term fossil discount. Consumers are increasingly ready to pay a premium, especially in B2C (business-to-consumer), but also in B2B (business-to-business) they are appreciating [the need for a] green premium.” As the transition to low-carbon transportation accelerates, demand for diesel and petroleum will decrease, leading to the closure of more oil refineries. In turn this will reduce availability of petrochemical feedstocks for chemical production, potentially pushing up the cost of these materials. Arkema’s Jenkins said: “I don’t believe that today’s fossil-based chemistry will remain at the same scale and cost that it is today. We drive a lot less than we used to and some of my suppliers are telling me that some raw materials will be less available in the future. I think the old solutions may start to cost more, and as we get to scale the cost of new solutions will come down.” He added: “There is a lot of focus on energy efficiency so solutions which contribute to an overall cut in the cost of use are important. Now you’re talking about value rather than per unit cost – what it is doing and enabling and solving versus what it is, which is product push.” The Fecc annual congress takes place in Sitges, Spain from 11-13 September 2024. Focus article by Will Beacham Thumbnail photo source: Jeppe Gustafsson/Shutterstock

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: The soundtrack of my youth was the Canadian rock band, Rush. In the fabulous Tom Sawyer, the lyrics include: “His mind is not for rent, always hopeful yet discontent, he knows changes aren’t permanent, but change is”. Don’t let your mind be rented by anybody who tells you that the global chemicals industry isn’t going through the most profound set of changes in its modern-day history. Nobody knows all the details of the changes that will be permanent. Anybody who claims they do know will lead you down a path away from essential scenario planning. We do know that in this world of flux and chaos at a micro level, the following macro trends are here to stay: Sustainability, ageing populations across most of the G20, much more volatile geopolitics, ever greater economic, social and political disruptions caused by climate change and the end of debt bubbles. How will, for example, geopolitics and rising trade tensions reshape global polycarbonate (PC) trade flows, demand and trade flows? In today’s post,  I look at scenarios for China’s net imports or net exports of polycarbonate in 2024-2030 based on levels of trade tensions and its ability to export to third-party countries such as Mexico. These countries have become a means by which China is getting around the trade tensions by relocating export-focused manufacturing plants. The ICIS base case forecasts that China’s PC demand growth will fall to an annual average of 3% in 2024-2030 from 17% in 1992-2023. Assuming this 3% demand growth, capacity growth at 4% and an operating rate of just 47% in 2024-2030 (the 1992-2023 operating rate averaged 68%), ICIS forecasts that China’s PC net imports will be around 460,000 tonnes a year. Let’s imagine in a world of increased trade tensions, China decides it cannot afford to rely on large volumes of imports. Because of the trade tensions, it also cannot export significant quantities of PC to countries such as Mexico to make autos, etc. Under this outcome, let’s keep demand and capacity growth the same in the base case but raise operating rates to 55%. Average annual net imports fall to just 80,000 tonnes. What if, though, trade tensions are not that bad? If we again keep demand and capacity growth the same as the base case but raise the operating rate to 63%, China becomes a net exporter at an annual average of 460,000 tonnes between 2024 and 2030. I plan to attempt to build new demand and supply models today’s demographic, geopolitical, debt, sustainability and climate change realities. This is going to be immensely difficult. Failure will be a big part of any success. But given today’s events, do we have any other choice? Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Hurricane Francine charged through southern Louisiana and although it gave plenty of soaking rains to the communities and businesses it passed through, most of the fertilizer industry within Louisiana appears to have weathered the storm fairly well. With 100 mile/h winds, Francine was a Category 2 storm at landfall but as of late Thursday, was categorized as a post-tropical storm and was located south of Memphis, Tennessee, with winds down to 25 miles/h and moving north at 9 miles/h. Having a short window as Francine quickly developed and advanced in strength and speed, the domestic fertilizer participants and companies rapidly put their response plans into action over the first part of the week and prepared for the storm. The industry in the Gulf Coast region does have the experience of having to face these threats often, so they are familiar with the challenges and dangers presented but also have constructed facilities and other assets to withstand a tropical storm or hurricane. In New Orleans, there were winds measured at a top speed of 70 miles/h and there was tremendous amount of rainfall with an estimated total from Francine placed at 8.43 inches, with parts of Mississippi having received over 6 inches. Still even with the gusty winds, the city and the fertilizer infrastructure were not significantly struck considering past events faced by this community, with a market source saying that barge operations are seeing all cargoes accounted for. Over in Geismar, despite some reports that there were issues, Canadian fertilizer major Nutrien said it did not have any complications. “Fortunately, we had no impact at the Geismar nitrogen site. Our people are safe and the plants remain operational,” said a Nutrien spokesperson. Yet not all apparently fared as well because there was talk that producer Mosaic is understood to have its Faustina operations offline, but it has not confirmed any plant status. While in Donaldsonville, the power supply is understood to have been restored leading to expectations that there will be a resumption of production occurring soon. Producer CF, who has a large nitrogen complex in this location, has not responded to requests for comment about its storm preparation and has previously stated it will not comment on plant operations. The next big concern will be over how extensive the crops were damaged, which could take some time to determine. Yet with the fierce winds and strong downpours already experienced it is likely that vulnerable crops like cotton and corn would have been impacted. Although with the lesser severity of the storm, it is possible the impacts on other vital acreage like sugarcane and rice have not been as affected. There have already been concerns over farmers facing reduced income levels this year which has been heightened by crop price pressures and has weighed on fertilizer commitments. Combined, these factors make any prospects of lost yields and washed-away profits a real concern for both growers and fertilizer participants.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Chemical companies continue to assess the impact from Hurricane Francine on Thursday after the storm made landfall on Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane on the Louisiana coast. Ascension parish, home to Geismar and its many chemical plants, was among the regions hardest hit by Hurricane Francine, which has caused hundreds of thousands of power outages. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have downgraded Francine to a post-tropical cyclone that is continuing to produce heavy rainfall across parts of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida panhandle, as shown in the following image. Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC) CHEMICAL OPERATIONS Several chemical companies shut down their plants ahead of Francine’s landfall on Wednesday evening and are assessing damage on Thursday, while some are in the process of restarting. Shell’s refinery and chemical sites in Louisiana do not appear to have serious damage from Hurricane Francine, the producer said “at this early stage” on Thursday. Shell is conducting a thorough post-hurricane damage assessment at Geismar and Norco to ensure the integrity of its equipment, systems and processes. Downstream issues have caused Shell to curtail oil and gas production at Appomattox, Mars, Vito, Ursa and Olympus following Hurricane Francine, it said Thursday morning. Shell did not specify the downstream issues. Dow said its sites in Louisiana are safely resuming normal operations. It is unclear what steps it took in preparation for the storm and whether those steps had any effect on operations or production. BASF is assessing the impacts from Hurricane Francine at facilities located in the path of the storm, the company told ICIS in an update on Thursday. Louisiana is home to just above 25% of the total ethylene capacity in the US, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. It also has close to 50% of the country’s vinyls chain capacity – for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), chlorine, ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and caustic soda. Other significant exposures close to 50% of total US capacity include methanol, ethylbenzene (EB), styrene and low density polyethylene (LDPE). UTILITIES More than 262,000 customers in Louisiana were without power as of Thursday afternoon, according to the website poweroutage.us. The total was higher than 350,000 earlier in the day. There were more than 38,000 without power in Alabama, 13,000 in Mississippi and 11,000 in Tennessee. Ascension and Assumption parishes as well as the coastal parts of Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes appear to be among the hardest hit, said Entergy, a power company. OIL AND GAS The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) suspended all marine operations on 11 September, according to its website. An estimated 41.74% of current US oil production and 53.32% of US natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in as of Thursday, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). PORTS The US Coast Guard has not yet activated Port Condition Recovery at the Port of New Orleans, but pilots are understood to be ready and able to start moving traffic once cleared. Lake Charles is also currently closed awaiting the Coast Guard to survey the channel, which may happen early on Friday. Operations at Pascagoula, Florida, and Mobile, Alabama, have also been suspended due to adverse weather, according to GAC Hot Port News. RAILROADS Railroads are telling customers to expect delays as they assess damage from the storm. BNSF issued an embargo impacting traffic between Beaumont, Texas, and New Orleans, Louisiana, including Amelia, Texas. The embargo affects interchanges at Amelia, Beaumont and New Orleans. While the embargo is in effect, permits may not be issued until the storm’s impact has been assessed. CSX is closely monitoring the remnants of Hurricane Francine as it moves north-northwest, potentially affecting the CSX network. While no service areas are currently impacted, customers with shipments through the CSX Southeast and Southwest regions could experience potential delays. Leading up to the storm, CSX implemented measures to protect its employees, customers and communities. “Our team is working diligently to ensure minimal service disruptions while maintaining the highest safety standards,” CSX said. Norfolk Southern is operating as scheduled and a market participant told ICIS the railroad said it will work with connecting carriers to utilize alternative gateways where possible. The New Orleans Public Belt Railroad said on Thursday that it resumed operations at 14:00 local time (19:00 GMT) following damage assessments. With the Port of New Orleans shut down, railroad companies warned customers of delays as traffic will be diverted following the port’s flood-gate closure. Additional reporting by Tracy Dang, Al Greenwood, Stefan Baumgarten, Emily Burleson, Bryan Campbell and Melissa Wheeler Track the latest updates on Hurricane Francine and its impact on chemicals on the Topic Page: Storm Season 2024.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Energy producers have shut in almost 42% of US oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because of Hurricane Francine, a regulator said on Thursday. The following table summarizes the platforms and rigs that were evacuated, and oil and gas output shut in. Total % of US Gulf Platforms evacuated 169 45.55 Rigs evacuated 3 60 Total Shut-in Percentage of GOM Production Oil, barrels/day 730,472 41.74 Gas, million cubic feet/day 991.68 53.32 Source: Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) The US Gulf accounts for 14% of US crude oil production and 5% of total dry gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Meanwhile, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) suspended all marine operations on 11 September, according to its website. Francine made landfall on Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane on the US coast of Louisiana. Track the latest updates on Hurricane Francine and its impact on chemicals on the Topic Page: Storm Season 2024.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Green hydrogen company Ohmium International has announced a strategic partnership with clean ammonia firm Ten08 Energy, which will have Ohmium’s electrolyzer solutions supply Ten08 Energy’s project in Texas. The Texas project, located on the Gulf Coast, aims to produce 1.4 million tonnes of clean ammonia annually, using a combination of blue ammonia, produced from natural gas and carbon capture, and green ammonia, generated from renewable energy. It is envisioned as a significant step towards decarbonizing the ammonia industry and providing a sustainable and cost-effective solution to meet cleaner energy sources demand with the clean ammonia shipped to customers in Europe and Asia. “We are looking forward to leveraging the efficiency, cost effectiveness and high purity of the hydrogen produced by Ohmium’s PEM electrolyzers for this exciting project,” said Jean Perarnaud, Ten08 Energy CEO. “As grid and renewable energy capacity continue to expand, our project’s phased approach and Ohmium’s scalable solutions are poised to meet the growing demand for sustainable energy solutions.”

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ascension parish, home to Geismar and its many chemical plants, was among the regions hardest hit by Hurricane Francine, which has caused hundreds of thousands of power outages. UTILITIESNearly 350,000 power outages were reported in Louisiana, according to the website poweroutage.us. Ascension and Assumption parishes as well as the coastal parts of Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes appear to be among the hardest hit, said Entergy, a power company. CHEMICAL OPERATIONS Several chemical companies shut down their plants ahead of Francine’s landfall on Wednesday evening. On Wednesday, BASF idled operations at Geismar, North Geismar and Vidalia, it said. The company is conducting safety assessments, and operations will resume once those are completed. Roehm is taking its methyl methacrylate (MMA) plant in Fortier, Louisiana, offline. Meanwhile, Dow said its sites in Louisiana are safely resuming normal operations. It is unclear what steps it took in preparation for the storm and whether those steps had any effect on operations or production. Louisiana is home to just above 25% of the total ethylene capacity in the US, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. It also has close to 50% of the country’s vinyls chain capacity – for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), chlorine, ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and caustic soda. Other significant exposures close to 50% of total US capacity include methanol, ethylbenzene (EB), styrene and low density polyethylene (LDPE). Upstream, an estimated 38.56% of current US oil production and 48.77% of US natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in as of Wednesday, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). OIL AND GASHurricane Francine caused liquefied natural gas (LNG) loadings to drop 22% this week. If disruptions to LNG loadings last long enough, it could cause an increase in domestic gas supplies, which could cause prices to fall. That, in turn could lead to a decline in prices for ethane, the predominant feedstock that US crackers use to produce ethylene. The ports of Cameron and Lake Charles in Louisiana remained closed, according to the US Coast Guard. That halted access to the Cameron LNG plant and Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG. The Sabine channel near US Sabine Pass LNG, however, was open, though no cargoes have departed the plant since 10 September. Oil future prices rose by more than a dollar in late morning trading. LOGISTICSThe New Orleans Public Belt Railroad said on Thursday that it will resume operations at 14:00 local time (19:00 GMT) following damage assessments. The Port of New Orleans has shut down, and railroad companies warned customers of delays as traffic will be diverted following the port’s flood-gate closure. BNSF has issued a temporary permit embargo affecting all traffic originating or destined to move through the area. STORM UPDATEFrancine has weakened into a tropical depression, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 35 miles/h (55km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The following map shows Francine’s projected path. Source: National Hurricane Center Earlier, the storm made landfall on Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane, with maximum sustained wind speeds of about 100 miles/h, according to the NHC. Additional reporting by Emily Burleson, Bryan Campbell and Joseph Chang Thumbnail shows Francine. Image by National Hurricane Center Track the latest updates on Hurricane Francine and its impact on chemicals on the Topic Page: Storm Season 2024.

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India has approved a two-year scheme with an outlay of rupees (Rs) 109 billion ($1.3 billion) to provide incentives for increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) as the south Asian nation works to reduce transportation’s environmental impact and improve its air quality. Two-wheelers account for 56% of 3 million registered EVs in India EV sales jump 45% in fiscal year ending March 2024 Annual sales could hit 10 million units by 2030 The new scheme called PM Electric Drive Revolution in Innovative Vehicle Enhancement (PM E-DRIVE) was given the “go” signal at the Union Cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 11 September. “Subsidies worth Rs36 billion have been provided to incentivize e [electric]-two-wheelers, e-three-wheelers, e-ambulances, e-trucks and other emerging EVs,” India’s Union Cabinet said in a statement. The scheme is expected to support about 2.48 million electric two-wheelers; 316,000 e-three wheelers; and 14,028 e-buses. Electric cars and hybrid vehicles have been excluded from the scheme. Penetration of four- wheeler EVs in the Indian market is very low, with over 95% of the sales coming from two- to three-wheelers. In the fiscal year ending March 2024, passenger vehicles accounted for about 18% of total domestic vehicle sales, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). EVs provide growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing specialty polymers and adhesives for the environment-friendly vehicles. Under the PM E-DRIVE scheme, the government has allocated Rs43.91 billion for the procurement of e-buses by state-owned agencies. These buses will be deployed in nine cities across the country. To curb air pollution, the government has set aside Rs5 billion for replacement of traditional trucks with e-trucks. Additional incentives will be given for scrapping old trucks. As a new initiative, the government will also provide Rs5 billion for the adoption of e-ambulances. The scheme will promote installation of public charging stations in cities with high EV penetration and on selected highways. A Rs20 billion budget was allocated to install 22,100 chargers for electric four-wheelers; 1,800 for electric buses; and 48,400 chargers for two and three-wheelers. Meanwhile, Rs7.8 billion was earmarked to help modernise government operated testing agencies to deal with new and emerging green mobility technologies, The new scheme replaces two earlier initiatives called Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid and) Electric Vehicle (FAME) scheme and the Electric Mobility Promotion scheme. While EV penetration in the country is currently less than 7%, demand for environment-friendly vehicleas has been rising over the past few years, according to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA). Affordability and limited charging infrastructure are major hurdles in the faster adoption of electric vehicles. The primary objective of the new scheme is to “expedite the adoption of EVs by providing upfront incentives for their purchase, as well as by facilitating the establishment of essential charging infrastructure for EVs”, the Union Cabinet stated. The government expects to see annual EV sales of 10 million units by 2030, said Nitin Gadkari, India’s minister of road, transport and highways said on 10 September. Focus article by Priya Jestin ($1 = Rs83.97)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco has signed new agreements to advance separate expansion plans with Chinese petrochemical producers Rongsheng and Hengli. Signing conducted during China Premier Li’s state visit to Saudi Arabia Deals with the Chinese firms part of Aramco’s downstream expansion Aramco moves closer to acquire 10% of Hengli Petrochemical Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman on 11 September discussed cooperation in energy, investment, and trade, according to state news agency Saudi Press Agency (SPA). In a separate meeting with GCC secretary general Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi in Riyadh, Li called on China and Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) countries to align their development strategies and “speed up free trade agreement negotiations”, according to Chinese state media Xinhua. Li is in the Middle East on 10-13 September for state visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both members of GCC. The four other members of GCC are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. PLANS WITH RONGSHENG The new agreements follow a previously signed framework agreement with Rongsheng Petrochemical for a potential joint-venture expansion of Saudi Aramco Jubail Refinery Company (SASREF) facilities. SASREF operates a 305,000 barrel/day refinery complex in Al-Jubail, Saudi Arabia with downstream aromatics units that can produce 260,000 tonnes/year of toluene and 275,000 tonnes/year of benzene, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. Aramco now owns 10% of Rongsheng Petrochemical, bought for $3.4 billion, with further plans between the two companies to take stakes in each other’s subsidiaries. Rongsheng Petrochemical manufactures and distributes a range of petrochemical and chemical fiber products, including purified terephthalic acid (PTA), polyester yarns, polyester filaments, and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). The Saudi oil giant intends to acquire 50% of Ningbo Zhongjin Petrochemical (ZJPC), which is fully owned by Rongsheng, with plans to upgrade existing assets and jointly develop a new materials project in Zhoushan. The proposed Chinese yuan (CNY) 67.5 billion Zhoushan new materials project would produce polyethylene (PE), propylene oxide (PO), styrene, ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA), polyolefin elastomer and bisphenol A (BPA). Rongsheng, in turn, would acquire a 50% stake in Aramco’s SASREF, which operates a refinery in Jubail. POTENTIAL DEALS WITH HENGLI With Hengli, talks have advanced relating to Aramco’s potential acquisition of a 10% stake in the Chinese group’s petrochemical arm, subject to due diligence and required regulatory clearances.’ The two companies had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the proposed transaction in in April 2024. Hengli Group operates across the entire production chain of oil refining, petrochemicals, polyester film, and textiles. It is one of the biggest PTA producers in China. “China is an important country in our global downstream growth strategy,” Aramco downstream president Mohammed Al Qahtani said. “These agreements reflect our collective intention to elevate our relationships in vital sectors to advance our downstream objectives.” Aramco is targeting a fourfold increase in its crude oil-to-chemicals conversion capacity to four million barrels/day by 2030. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and co-chairs the Fourth Meeting of the High-Level Chinese-Saudi Joint Committee with him at Riyadh’s al-Yamamah Palace in Saudi Arabia on 11 September 2024.