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Crude Oil13-Feb-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–The UK economy showed little
growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 with GDP
rising just 0.1% after trending down throughout
the year.
Services sector output grew by 0.2% in Q4,
construction was up 0.5% while production fell
by 0.8%, the Office for National Statistics
(ONS) said on Thursday.
Economic growth tailed off through 2024 with
GDP growing 0.8% in Q1, 0.4% in Q2 and 0.0% in
Q3.
The Bank of England cut
interest rates again last week as it tries
to balance low growth against relatively high
inflation.
The eurozone’s economy also struggled in Q4 with
GDP flat at 0.0% growth from the previous
quarter.
Petrochemicals13-Feb-2025
MUMBAI (ICIS)–India may offer the US tariff
cuts on various products, including electronics
and automobiles – major downstream sectors of
petrochemicals – to avoid US President Donald
Trump’s “reciprocal duties”, which may deal a
big blow to the south Asian nation’s exports.
India PM Modi in US for state visit on
12-13 February
Tariff cuts incorporated in India budget
for year to March 2026
India braces for impact from US’ 25%
tariffs on all steel, aluminium imports
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to
meet with Trump in Washington on Thursday –
their first meeting since Trump assumed office
for a second term.
The US has not imposed any direct tariffs on
India yet. However, the world’s biggest economy
is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on
any countries with tariffs on US goods.
India’s tariffs on agricultural, mining and
manufacturing products from the US were in
double-digits, while US tariffs for the same
products from India were in the low
single-digit levels.
The south Asian country, which is a giant
emerging market in Asia, is expected to offer
tariff cuts on more than 30 goods, as well as
increase the purchase of US defence and energy
products, according to analysts at Japanese
brokerage firm Nomura, in a research note on 10
February.
India’s national budget for the next fiscal
year starting April 2025 contained provisions
reducing import duties on some goods including
electronics, textiles, intermediate goods used
for technology manufacturing and satellites,
synthetic flavouring essences and motorcycles,
which are expected to benefit US-based
companies.
It was largely seen as a pre-emptive move to
thwart reciprocal tariffs from the US under
Trump.
India may consider further tariff reductions on
luxury vehicles, solar cells, and chemicals, as
part of its strategy to maintain smooth trade
relations, according to analysts from Nomura.
“We are analysing the announcements made by the
US on increasing tariffs,” an official from
India’s Ministry of Commerce said.
“We are also asking our industry how these
tariffs are going to affect them positively or
negatively and are looking at the impact of the
tariffs that have already been imposed,” he
said.
DIALING DOWN ON PROTECTIONIST
STANCE
India has much higher tariff rates compared
with other countries in Asia. Amid threats of
reciprocal tariffs from the US, India is being
forced to backtrack on its protectionist
policy, at least where the US is concerned,
while maintaining a tough stance on rival Asian
giant China.
In year to March 2024, the US was India’s
largest export destination and accounted for
nearly 18% of the country’s total merchandise
exports of $437.10 billion, official data
showed.
Key Indian exports to the US include industrial
machinery, gems and jewellery, pharmaceuticals,
fuels, iron and steel, textiles, vehicles, and
chemicals.
US’ exports to India, meanwhile, accounted for
just 2% of total US shipments abroad in
January-December 2024.
A mutually beneficial tariff regime could be
struck between then as India seeks to further
boost exports to the world’s biggest economy.
The US’ recent tariff hikes on China opens up
opportunities for Indian exporters to increase
their share in the US market.
For instance, India’s exports of auto
components to the US are currently very low,
accounting for only 2% of the US market,
underscoring scope for expansion.
Between April and September 2024, the country’s
total exports of auto parts stood at $11.1
billion, a third of which – or $3.67 billion –
were shipped to the US, according to the
Automotive Component Manufacturers Association
of India (ACMA).
Over the past few years, India has adopted
trade measures like import certification under
the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), increased
antidumping duties on various products,
including petrochemicals, to limit imports and
boost domestic production.
While some of these policies apply globally,
some of them are directed at China, which is a
major exporter of goods to India.
While the tariffs are worrisome, certain
sectors like auto components, mobiles and
electronics, electronic machinery, apparel,
leather and footwear, furniture, pharmaceutical
and toys could see an increase in demand from
US buyers, the commerce ministry official said.
India is a major exporter of pharmaceutical
products to the US but relies on China for 70%
of raw material called active pharmaceutical
ingredients (API).
The US accounted for over 31% of India’s total
pharmaceutical exports of $27.9 billion in year
to March 2024.
IMPORTS OF US LNG TO GROW; US’ TARIFFS
ON STEEL, ALUMINIUM WORRY INDIA
The south Asian country is expected to increase
its petroleum product imports from the US, to
alleviate trade imbalances.
For the fiscal year 2023-24, India imported
$12.96 billion worth of petroleum oil and
products from the US, according to official
data.
India’s state-owned oil and gas companies,
including Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Gas
Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) and Bharat
Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL), are in active
discussions with American suppliers to import
more LNG from the US, petroleum secretary
Pankaj Jain said on 10 February.
The recent announcement of 25% tariffs on all
steel and aluminium imports into the US could
heavily impact India.
While Indian steel exports to the US are
relatively small, the US tariffs could cause
exporting nations to redirect their goods to
the Indian markets.
India is both a major exporter as well as
importer of steel, on which a basic customs
duty of around 7-8% apply – much lower than the
US’ 25% – raising fears of supply flooding the
south Asian country.
With the US shutting its doors to global steel,
the surplus will inevitably be redirected to
India, threatening our domestic industry with
market distortions, price crashes, and unfair
competition, Indian Steel Association (ISA)
Naveen Jindal said said in an official
statement on 11 February.
“The US, a major steel importer, has
historically imposed strict trade restrictions,
with over 30 remedial actions in force against
Indian steel – some for more than three
decades,” Jindal said.
“This latest tariff is expected to slash steel
exports to the US by 85%, creating a massive
surplus that will likely flood India,” he
added.
While only 5% of the total steel exports from
India go to the US, the country accounts for
nearly 12% of India’s aluminium exports.
Both steel and aluminium industries use
chemicals like caustic soda and soda ash during
the production process.
Insight article by Priya
Jestin
With contributions from Nurluqman Suratman
and Pearl Bantillo
Polypropylene13-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Anti-Dumping Committee of
Indonesia (KADI) has recommended anti-dumping
duties (ADDs) ranging from 7.17% to 29.01% on
polypropylene (PP) block copolymer imports,
according to a document obtained by ICIS on
Thursday.
The final ADD recommendations on the material
with HS code 3902.30.90 are still subject to
approval by relevant authorities, with no
timeline for implementation, as yet.
Market participants expect a final decision to
be announced in the next one to two months.
The final ADDs suggested for imports from South
Korea range from 7.17% to 19.58%, down from
previously proposed rates of up to 82.83%,
according to the document.
For imports from Vietnam, the UAE, Malaysia and
Singapore, the recommended rates are 11.40%,
21.02%, 13.45-29.01%, and 11.60-13.06%,
respectively.
KADI initiated the antidumping
investigation on PP block copolymer resins
imports in 2023, following a request from
Indonesian PP producer Chandra Asri.
PP block copolymer is widely used in packaging,
automotive parts, electronic devices and other
goods that require enhanced toughness and
flexibility.
(Adds details throughout)
Infogram by Nurluqman Suratman
Thumbnail image: At the Tanjung Priok port
in Jakarta, Indonesia on 19 June 2024. (BAGUS
INDAHONO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

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Polypropylene13-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Anti-Dumping Committee of
Indonesia (KADI) has recommended anti-dumping
duties (ADD) ranging from 7.17% to 29.01% on
polypropylene (PP) block copolymer imports,
according to a document obtained by ICIS on
Thursday.
The proposed ADDs on the material with HS code
3902.30.90 are still subject to approval by
relevant authorities, with no timeline for
implementation, as yet.
Market participants expect a final decision to
be announced in the next one to two months.
Gas12-Feb-2025
Additional reporting by Ed Cox
LONDON (ICIS)–The 2022 energy crisis has left
the EU between a rock and a hard place.
Record gas prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine
war combined with costly climate policies to
deal a heavy blow to industrial production,
triggering widespread plant closures and an
economic downturn.
The ensuing need to respond to industrial
decline while also stemming social and
political turmoil caused by soaring energy
costs prompted lawmakers to adopt a
controversial wholesale gas price cap, which
expired at the end of January.
Although prices have fallen since the record
levels seen in 2022 they remain stubbornly high
by historical standards and have recorded a
sustained increase so far in 2025. This has
further heightened calls from large consumers
to push for urgent measures to curb energy
costs, fearing the imminent collapse of
industrial production.
And the concerns are legitimate. Europe faces
geopolitical volatility and growing competition
from China and the US.
However, reports that the EU may now consider
introducing a new gas price cap to stave off
industrial decline should come under public
scrutiny because of serious risks.
A first risk relates to the fact that a price
cap would impair the market’s ability to
attract more supply if needed.
Such a risk would be both short- and long-term
as European buyers have secured only a fraction
of the LNG volumes already contracted by Asian
companies.
In January 2025, LNG covered almost 37% of EU
and British gas supply, according to ICIS data.
However, putting a figure on the percentage of
Europe’s contracted LNG relative to future
demand is challenging. This is in part due to
great uncertainty over Europe’s gas demand
alongside the complexities of LNG contracts.
But the underlying message that Europe only
contracts a portion of its LNG demand – and is
heavily dependent on market prices to attract
remaining supply – is correct.
The need for a robust, market-based TTF
reference price in reflecting Europe’s LNG
demand relative to other markets will only
increase in line with a dependency on US LNG
imports, and in the event that Russian pipeline
gas does not return.
Beyond 2023, the majority of LNG contracts with
European companies are for supply from the US
on a free-on-board basis, meaning there is no
contractual commitment to deliver to Europe.
Price signals from buyers in Europe, Asia,
South America and the Middle East play a key
role in determining the destination of these
cargoes. Europe has only received sufficient
LNG in recent months to cover gas demand
because the TTF has pulled supplies inwards,
and away from other global buyers.
Large future LNG contracts are also in place
with Qatar, but they typically contain
diversion rights. It has not been the policy of
the EU, nor of European LNG buyers, to commit
to large, fixed-destination contracts given the
expected long-term drop in Europe’s gas demand.
In any case, few sellers would commit to such
business with the prospect of a price cap and
with other global buyers potentially more
attractive.
And there are other risks related to financial
stability and the credibility of EU markets as
they would no longer accurately reflect the
bloc’s supply-demand balance.
An artificially capped price could lead to
higher margin requirements but would also put a
strain on the EU’s overall budget, leading to
soaring debt. This is because of the gap
between regulated and free market prices, which
would ultimately have to be borne by EU
taxpayers.
The EU might consider other options such as
reducing regulations and red tape, or ensuring
companies have all the flexibility they need to
attract more supplies.
Although the EU has a fine line to tread –
preserving the bloc’s competitiveness while
ensuring security of gas supply – introducing a
gas price cap would have a deeply harmful
impact on markets.
Ethylene12-Feb-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–German chemical producers’ trade
group VCI wants the country’s new government,
to be formed after early elections on 23
February, to maintain the so-called “debt
brake” (Schuldenbremse).
Debt brake ensures fiscal discipline
Economy weak, but fiscal position strong
Reform may drive investments to boost
economy
A dispute over government spending priorities
contributed to the collapse of the coalition
government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz in
November.
Under the constitutionally enshrined fiscal
rule, structural budget deficits cannot exceed
0.35% of GDP. The rule can be suspended in
times of emergency, as it was during the
pandemic and the start of the Ukraine war.
In the current election campaign, political
parties are now debating whether to retain,
ditch, or reform the fiscal rule.
Critics of the Schuldenbremse say that it
hinders public investments, needed to help
revive the country’s economy, which has been
weak since 2018. GDP shrank in both 2024 and
2023.
However, VCI’s position is clear: The
Schuldenbremse has proven itself as it managed
to halt the trend of growing debt/GDP ratios,
the group said in a position paper this week.
FISCAL DISCIPLINEThe
fiscal rule, anchored in the constitution,
ensured that spending does not exceed means and
that the current generation does not live at
the expense of future ones, VCI said.
As a result, Germany has a relatively low level
of debt and low debt service obligations –
giving it the financial capacity to react in
times of crisis, whereas higher-indebted EU
countries needed to rely on the solidarity of
their neighbors or eurobonds, the group said.
VCI acknowledged that the Schuldenbremse is
being questioned in light of the current
“massive economic downturn and the immense
investment backlog,” and it said that the rule
was “not perfect”.
However, the country’s current problems
reflected the “political deficits” of the past,
when government neglected necessary investments
in infrastructure, security, education, and
research and development, it said.
REFORM
VCI would not rule out a “moderate reform” of
the Schuldenbremse, allowing for temporarily
higher deficits, as long as the debt-to-GDP
ratio remains below 60%, it said.
Reforming the debt brake could buy time until
investments and reforms start to pay off,
said VCI chief economist Henrik Meincke.
The government’s priority, however, must be “to
clearly prioritize expenses and focus on
investments”, he said.
Meincke urged a “fundamental course correction”
in industrial policy, with a focus on the
government’s core tasks, a sharp reduction in
bureaucracy, and “tax revenue invested in
security, education and infrastructure, as a
priority”.
Any reform of the debt brake must not be “a
quick fix” as that would not solve the
country’s structural problems, the economist
said.
Analysts at ING said the current political
debate about public finances in Germany may
create the impression that the country was
close to bankruptcy, which was not the case at
all.
German government debt had stabilized slightly
above 60% of GDP and was expected to stay there
until 2026, analysts said.
“Germany has by far the lowest government debt
ratio of the larger eurozone countries,” they
added.
Thumbnail photo of Friedrich Merz, head of
the opposition conservative Christian
Democratic Union (CDU), which leads in opinion
polls. The CDU favors retaining the
Schuldenbremse, but Merz has said he may be
open to discussions about reforming it. Photo
source: CDU
Polyethylene Terephthalate12-Feb-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for Recycling
Matt
Tudball asks Carolina
Perujo Holland, senior analyst for
Plastics Recycling, and Travis
Klein, senior analyst for PET how the
markets in Europe compare with other regions in
terms of competitiveness, impact of regulations
and feedstock costs.
Carolina and Travis also give a brief
description about their presentations at the
ICIS PET Value Chain Conference, which takes
place 6-7 March in Amsterdam.
Click
here to register and see the full
agenda.
Hydrogen12-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Trump administration
swiftly withdrew financial support for its
hydrogen sector, while China is accelerating
hydrogen expansion with strong policy backing.
In this podcast, ICIS hydrogen analysts
Patricia Tao and Anita Yang discuss how these
developments could gradually shift the global
hydrogen market’s center of gravity over the
next three to five years.
US hydrogen competitiveness in global
market weakens
China integrating hydrogen into its
national energy strategy
Global hydrogen market is likely to shift
in the next three to five years.
Speciality Chemicals11-Feb-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The International
Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) wage scale
committee voted unanimously to approve the
tentative agreement between the union and US
Gulf and East Coast ports, setting up a vote by
the full membership later this month.
An ILA strike was averted in January
when a tentative deal was reached between the
two parties with both sides agreeing to work
under the existing pact while awaiting the
ILA’s full wage scale committee and the
scheduling of a ratification vote from the full
membership.
The wage scale committee consists of more than
200 ILA union locals from Maine to Texas.
The new agreement and all its benefits are
retroactive to 1 October 2024, and, if ratified
by ILA members, will be in effect until 30
September 2030.
ILA rank-and-file members will receive details
of the agreement approved by the wage scale
committee at local meetings over the next two
weeks and then participate in the ratification
vote on 25 February.
The specific details of the agreement will not
be made public.
The two sides agreed on the financial part of
the deal in early October, ending a three-day
strike, with
commitments to continue negotiating on other
issues, specifically automation and
semi-automation at ports, which the union
opposed because of the threat of losing jobs
previously done by humans.
The labor issue would have had no impact on
liquid chemical tanker traffic in and out of
ports as they typically serve private terminals
and do not require the same labor as container
ships.
Container ships and costs for shipping
containers are relevant to the chemical
industry because while most chemicals are
liquids and are shipped in tankers, container
ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene
(PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in
pellets.
They also transport liquid chemicals in
isotanks.
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