LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which highlights the risk of empty shelves in US retail stores as Trump’s tariff war continues. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 25 April. INSIGHT: Europe chems players move to the side lines on tariff upheavalThe market volatility following the intensification of tariff threats has cast a pall over European chemicals sector activity, with players avoiding committing to long-term orders if possible in the face of demand uncertainty and currency volatility. TotalEnergies to shut oldest Antwerp cracker due to oversupply in EuropeTotalEnergies will turn off its oldest steam cracker in Antwerp, Belgium by the end of 2027, the producer announced on Tuesday. Tariff fears slow eurozone private sector growth in AprilFears over the impact of tariffs on trade slowed private sector momentum in the eurozone and pushed the UK sector back into contraction as new orders slowed and confidence waned across Europe. Dow expands Europe asset review, delays Canada cracker projectDow is to widen its strategic review of European assets and delay work on its planned Canada net-zero cracker project on the heels of a first-quarter net loss. INSIGHT: Pricing gap between Europe and other regions continues to widenEver since the announcement of a series of tariffs against selected countries from the US, the eyes of chemicals market players have been firmly fixed on how trade patterns will evolve between key regions such as northeast Asia, northwest Europe and the US Gulf.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 25 April. China PC import prices near five-year low on poor demand By Li Peng Seng 21-Apr-25 12:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Import prices of polycarbonates (PC) in China sank to their lowest in nearly five years recently and the bleakness will linger as demand will stay slow due to trade wars and ample supplies. US LPG supply diverted from China triggers sharp propane price fall in Japan, South Korea By Jiayi Chang 21-Apr-25 19:50 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US-China tariff dispute has severely disrupted established global energy trade flows. The abrupt suspension of US liquid petroleum gas (LPG) exports to China, a key trade route, has led to a sharp collapse in propane prices across Japan and South Korea. INSIGHT: China PP capacity expansion to peak in 2025; trade war to hit supply By Lucy Shuai 22-Apr-25 11:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Global and Chinese polypropylene (PP) capacity additions will peak in 2025 and then slow down, with the US-China trade war expected to affect overall supply. S Korea’s Apr export decline point to rising challenges from US tariffs By Nurluqman Suratman 22-Apr-25 12:05 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s exports fell by 5.2% year on year in the first 20 days of April, an indication of the significant impact of US tariffs on Asia’s fourth-largest economy. US tariffs enlarge woes in Asia chemical freight market By Hwee Hwee Tan 23-Apr-25 15:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vast uncertainty stemming from the US’ tariff moves has squashed hopes of any near-term recovery for Asia chemical tanker market. Cost push, tight supply buoy up few Asia petrochemicals amid general slump By Jonathan Yee 23-Apr-25 16:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–While the US-led trade war has roiled Asia’s petrochemicals market, sending prices of some on free fall, a selected few products have bucked the trend due to rising feedstock cost and tightening supply, but the support may be temporary amid global economic headwinds. PODCAST: Asia propylene market seeks balance in tariff chaos By Seymour Chenxia 23-Apr-25 16:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s propylene (C3) market is likely to see tighter short-term supply as China’s propane dehydrogenation (PDH) producers now face surging propane import costs because of US-China tariff hikes. Downstream demand and end-user consumption could be negatively impacted by tariff barriers. INSIGHT: Sluggish demand weighs on Asia C3 despite propane hikes By Julia Tan 23-Apr-25 22:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Tighter supply from end-May onwards is likely to support near-term Asia propylene (C3) pricing on expectations that tariffs levied on US-origin propane will make it untenable for Chinese PDH units to sustain existing operating rates. Saudi Arabia, India plan to jointly build two oil refineries By Priya Jestin 24-Apr-25 17:05 MUMBAI (ICIS)–Two oil refineries will be built in India as part of Saudi Arabia’s $100-billion investment pledged to the south Asian nation which would cover cooperation in multiple areas, including energy and petrochemicals. Asia ACN sentiment turns bearish on weak China market By Corey Chew 25-Apr-25 12:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s domestic acrylonitrile (ACN) market has weakened as Shandong Yulong’s new capacity resulted in an oversupply amid weak demand. INSIGHT: Trade tensions to hasten Canadian low carbon ammonia exports to Asia, hitting prospects of US projects By Bee Lin Chow 25-Apr-25 15:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Canadian ammonia exports are exempted from the prohibitively high levy imposed on Canadian exports to the US, thanks to the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from southeast Asia and Vietnam have risen above rates from China to the US as tariffs – and a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs – are already shifting global trade patterns. Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said he is now seeing the shifting global trade patterns caused by the tariffs play out in ocean freight rates. “Falling demand out of China has coincided with shippers rushing imports out of Vietnam, which is subject to a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs,” Sand said. “Seeing the relationship between these two trades turn on its head is an early indication of the potential for tariffs to shift global trade on its axis.” Sand, using Xeneta data, said importing into the US West Coast from China was more expensive than importing from Vietnam on 16 March. But by 25 April, Vietnam has become the more expensive of the two trades, as shown in the following chart. In another example, the spread in rates between China and southeast Asia trades into US West Coast has widened from $7/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) on 31 March to $181/FEU on 25 April (with southeast Asia the more expensive). “As shippers stopped or slowed exports from China due to the tariffs, they have accelerated exports from southeast Asia countries, which has caused the spread in freight rates on these trades to widen,” Sand said. AVERAGE GLOBAL RATES TICK LOWER Average global container rates edged lower by 2% week on week, accord to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects rates to continue to decline in the coming week due to uncertainty stemming from reciprocal tariffs. Blank sailings have surged again this week as carriers strive to maintain rates or at least stop the slide. Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said the impact of the trade war has led shippers to pause, or outright cancel, shipments. “This in turn reduces demand for capacity on container vessels, to which carriers respond by cancelling sailings,” Murphy said. Murphy said this level of escalation in blanked capacity illustrates a dramatic change in the market. “Partly from the perspective of the magnitude of the blank sailings, which are more akin to what we tend to see seasonally following Chinese New Year in January/February and Chinese Golden Week in October,” Murphy said. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos also fell over the week, with rates to both US coasts down by 5%. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said some vessels are leaving China only half full because of canceled orders. Levine said some retailers have inventory from front-loading deliveries over the past few months and are taking a wait-and-see approach. PORT CHARGES TARGETING CHINA-LINKED SHIPS Levine said revised guidelines from the US Trade Representative (USTR) targeting China’s dominance in the maritime industry should not lead to the significant port call omissions and congestion that many feared would result from the original per port call proposal. Market intelligence group Linerlytica said that although port fees on Chinese operated and Chinese-built ships are retained, carriers will be able to circumvent the fees by swapping out all of the affected ships in the next 180 days as the fee will no longer apply on the operators’ fleet composition or prospective orders but only on ships calling at US ports on a per voyage basis. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES HOLD STEADY US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady this week with rates remaining unchanged from last week despite rates continuing to be pressured downward for several trade lanes. There is downward pressure on rates along the USG-Asia trade lane as charterers are still in wait-and-see mode, and besides contract of affreightment (COA) cargoes there is very little seen in the market. The tariffs and uncertainty continue to dampen the spot market, weighing on rates. The usual spot cargoes of methanol from Jose to China are the only ones reported, leaving methanol requirements from the region active to Asia. Similarly, rates from the USG to ARA and all other trade lanes also held steady. The spot market to Europe gained momentum with a relatively good number of inquiries following the Easter holidays.  Despite the increased interest rates remain unchanged as the clean petroleum products (CPP) market continues to remain soft, leaving those vessels to participate in the chemical sector. From the USG to Brazil, this trade lane had seen more inquiries, but there is plenty of available space for May lending downward pressure to spot rates and leaving most owners still trying to fill up prompt part space to both South American coasts for 1H May. Rates are soft and have lost some ground. The USG to India route has seen an uptick in inquiries over the last week with no confirmed fixtures. Market talk of a trade deal between the US and India have sparked some interest leaving the rates flat for the time being and expected to remain unchanged in the near term. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling Matt Tudball discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Upwards pressure on NWE colourless bales, colourless and mixed coloured flake Buyers in eastern Europe seek lower bale prices Asian food-grade pellet imports cheaper on weaker dollar

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A subsidiary of Sweden-based fashion retailer H&M, Syre, has announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Binh Dinh province in Vietnam to build a circular textile recycling plant, the company said on Friday. Syre, a joint venture between H&M and technology investment firm Vargas, announced plans to build a Gigascale recycling plant in Binh Dinh, which will produce up to 250,000 tonnes of high-quality polyethylene terephthalate (PET) chips from textile waste. “Syre has an ambition to support Vietnam in its green transition and as a global leader in the circular textile industry,” said Dennis Nobelius, CEO of Syre. “The partnership with the Binh Dinh Province will, with the right conditions in place, be a great opportunity to jointly lead the textile shift,” Nobelius added. Investment details have not been finalized, Nobelius said. “Binh Dinh offers an excellent investment environment, being a hub for clean energy … with synchronized infrastructure … and favorable climate conditions,” said Vietnam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on 23 April. Syre is a circular textile-to-textile recycling firm with one plant in North Carolina in the US under construction, to be operational in mid-2025. The North Carolina plant will have a capacity of up to 10,000 tonnes/year of circular polyester. In 2024, Syre raised $100 million in funds to construct its plants in North Carolina and other locations such as Vietnam.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Canadian ammonia exports are exempted from the prohibitively high levy imposed on Canadian exports to the US, thanks to the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. However, the trade tensions would inevitably motivate Canada to be less reliant on its closest neighbour market and accelerate diversification of its ammonia exports to Asia from the Prince Rupert Port in western Canada. Stronger push for Canada to diversify ammonia exports despite US tariff exemption Prince Rupert Port – an emerging low carbon ammonia export and bunkering hub US Gulf Coast low carbon ammonia projects to face strong competition Prince Rupert Port has the shortest shipping distances between North America and Asia hence its direct shipping route to Asia stands to undermine the competitiveness of low carbon ammonia exports from the US Gulf Coast. Besides comparatively longer shipping distances, shipments from the US Gulf Coast to Asia have also been faced with seasonal congestions at the Panama Canal. Key industry stakeholders in Japan and South Korea have been in talks with US companies to jointly produce low carbon ammonia in the US Gulf Coast States of Texas and Louisiana for export to Asia. Among the announced US projects, the joint venture between Japan’s largest energy company JERA Company (JERA), global investment and trading company Mitsui & Company and US fertilizer producer CF Industries have progressed to Final Investment Decision. The first ammonia exports from Prince Rupert Port to Asia are likely to be low carbon trades spearheaded by two of Japan’s largest trading houses Itochu and Marubeni. Low carbon ammonia exports from Prince Rupert Port would position Canada as a key stakeholder in an emerging low carbon commodity ecosystem comprising major bunkering hubs such as Amsterdam, Algeciras, Singapore and Port Zayed, key exporters including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Egypt, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia and the US, and importers including countries in Europe, Japan and South Korea (please see map below). Note: Includes proposed and ongoing investments Low carbon ammonia supplies via the Prince Rupert Port will also facilitate development of a low carbon marine fuel bunkering service that could potentially be in direct competition with the proposed low carbon bunkering services at the US ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Demand for low carbon ammonia bunker fuels on the US west coast is expected to be driven by car-carrying vessels calling at Port Bernicia and container vessels at Port Oakland. The Canadian government has been inviting foreign investments to develop a new liquid chemicals export route from the Prince Rupert Port as the port has been seeing declining trades volumes in recent years due to shifting global trade flows and competition with other North American ports. AltaGas and Royal Vopak are jointly building an export facility on the Ridley Island, British Columbia, that includes a large-scale liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and bulk liquids terminal with rail, logistics and marine infrastructure. As vessels can be configured to alternate between LPG and ammonia cargoes, ammonia can be one of the outbound trades to benefit from the export facility at Ridley Island. While diversifying overseas markets to pre-empt risks, including tariff or non-tariff trade barriers, would make sense for any exporters, it is particularly crucial for ammonia producers as stringent safety standards for the transportation and handling of ammonia means alternative export channels are not easily set up. Canada exported about 1.08 million tonnes of ammonia to the US last year, around 19% of its total annual ammonia capacity of about 5.62m tonnes, and almost all Canadian ammonia exports have been for the US market at least since 2020, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand database. With contributions from Kieran Cosgrove, Song Hea Beom and Sylvia Traganida INSIGHT article by Chow Bee Lin

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China is considering exempting some chemical imports from the US, including ethane, polyethylene (PE) and styrene polymers, from tariffs, according to an unofficial document obtained by ICIS on Friday. Based on the document titled “First Batch List of Reciprocal Tariff Exempted Commodities”, ethane, other acyclic hydrocarbons, linear low-density PE (LLDPE) imports from the US, will be exempted from China’s announced additional 125% levies. Other proposed exemptions are PE, ethylene polymers and styrene polymers in their primary shapes. The itemized list has 131 products, including drugs, vaccines, motors and some electronic components. The list, which started making rounds in the Chinese markets late on 24 April, could not be confirmed with China Customs at the time of writing. Additional reporting by Fanny Zhang Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Two fatty alcohol plants in Selangor in the western coast of Malaysia are shut for nearly a month due to disruption of gas supply caused by a pipeline fire in the area on 1 April, market sources said on Friday. Edenor Technology’s 80,000 tonne/year fatty alcohol plant and KLK OLEO’s 300,000 tonne/year plant suffered unplanned outages because of the incident, they said. According to gas distributor Gas Malaysia Energy Services (GMES), gas supplies to a total of 192 plants in Selangor were cut off after a blaze raged at PETRONAS Gas Bhd’s (PGB) main pipeline near Putra Heights for more than seven hours on 1 April, Edenor Technology, in a letter to its clients dated 22 April obtained by ICIS, said that the push-back of gas supply restoration in Selangor “has further affected our production facility in Telok Panglima Garang … and it will lead to further delays in some of our upcoming deliveries”. Edenor stated that gas distributor GMES indicated that full restoration of natural gas supply will be delayed to 1 July from an earlier estimate of 20 April. Meanwhile, KLK OLEO, the oleochemicals manufacturing division of Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (KLK), has yet to respond to ICIS’ queries on the issue at the time of writing.