ICIS long-term power analytics

Price forecasts up to 2030, real-time insight, pre- and post-development impact analysis

Power markets are liberalising to varying degrees whilst remaining heavily interconnected. For example, a change in German fossil generation impacts Norway’s power price by several Euros even though Norway is powered by over 99% renewable sources. In comparison, the impact on Poland is marginal. You’re expected to stay on top of each new development and advise on how to react to them. However, it can be difficult to monitor changes and assess the impact of developments in a rapidly changing market.

The unique ICIS long-term power model shows where power prices in 28 European countries are heading, how they are impacted by fuel prices, capacity changes, falling renewable costs and coal phase-outs, so that you are aware of what these changes mean for your business.

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The solution

Our long-term power analytics solution is fed from 964 million data points and forecasts the power price for 192.720 hours in 29 European countries. We provide:

  • Fundamental power price forecasts for the 28 EU countries, as well as Switzerland and Norway
  • Hourly granularity of forecast until 2030
  • A wealth of scenarios around fuel prices, capacities, interconnectors, regulatory decisions and carbon price fluctuations
  • Super-quick ad-hoc scenario analysis (over several hours) of the impact of any big news for all 29 markets with hourly resolution up to 2030
  • Optimal dispatch of generation across all hours
  • Cross border flow forecast
  • Interactive marginal costs/merit order data and visualisations
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How ICIS is different?

  • Granular EU wide coverage: Consistent modelling of the EU 28+ Switzerland and Norway means you can compare data, run scenarios and foresee the impact of cross-border developments.
  • The only reliable carbon price forecast: A powerful link with the ICIS market leading carbon model means interdependencies and correlations between power and carbon are fully accounted for.
  • A different view of the markets: The ICIS curve looks very different from any other fundamental power forecast – so if you need to be aware of upside and downside risks, we offer unique insights.
  • Market updates with defined impact: Our quantitative models are completely in sync with our news coverage. We automatically translate all major news into the price curve, which means we don’t just report the news – we show the impact analysis of big developments.
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The benefits to you

We assess each change as it happens. Our joined-up, consistent and continually updated view identifies the relevant market developments that will affect your business.

See the potential impact now and look forward as far as 2030.

By integrating our expert viewpoint and forecasts with yours, you see the complete picture as it changes and evolves, not only for individual countries but for the whole European power marketplace. Now you can respond quickly and with confidence to relevant changes, maximising opportunities and protecting your profits, ensuring you do not lose out in the short or long term. The ICIS long term Power Horizon model is the only power price forecast with a market leading carbon model intertwined in it, fully capturing the correlations of these commodities every hour up to 2030.

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What's offered?

Insight & analysis

Our experts understand what has happened, why and what difference it will make in the short and long term. We report the key information – and the impact – within hours.

Consistent and comparable coverage for all European power markets

Using the same methodology and presented in English – all of which means information can be evaluated and decisions made without additional processing.

Assessment of policy risk

We build deep understanding of the details behind the policies that determine power market success or failure – so you can focus on the actions required to build profits.

Better analysis by improved data inputs

Carbon and other fuels have a strong correlation with power markets. Our solution connects to the market leading TIM agent based model, giving you a more integrated view on the energy sector.

A different view of the markets

As well as the opportunity to discuss your assumptions and probabilities with our analysts, you also have access to a wealth of pre-defined scenarios which offer alternative viewpoints.

Meet the team

Philipp Ruf

Director of Global Power & Carbon Analytics

Philipp is the director of the global Power & Carbon Analytics team.

Marcus Ferdinand

Head of European Carbon & Power Analytics

As head of European Power & Carbon Market analytics, Marcus provides qualitative and quantitative analysis in the rapidly changing energy markets in the EU.

Matthew Jones

Senior analyst – EU Carbon & Power Markets

Matthew provides quantitative and qualitative analysis of a range of European power markets, with a focus on EU regulatory developments and the UK.

Anise Ganbold

Senior analyst – EU Power and Carbon Markets

Anise provides quantitative and qualitative analysis on European power markets for our power analytics solutions. Previously, Anise was a European gas and power analyst with S&P Global Platts and Eclipse Energy Group.

Vija Pakalkaite

Analyst – EU Power & Carbon Markets

Vija Pakalkaite specialises in the Nordic, Baltic and central-eastern European power markets and renewable energy regulatory frameworks, as well as renewable energy auctions across Europe.

How ICIS can support your business

  • Respond to change: No need to wait days or weeks for a consultant or lawyer’s view on legislative or regulatory changes. We report the key information, along with the impact, within hours.
  • Focus on policy: Understanding the detail behind the policies that determine power market success or failure is what we do best. Our experts get to grips with the practical impact of evolving policies, which means that you can concentrate on the actions required to build profits.
  • Providing context: We ensure that the latest policy developments across European power markets are put into context for your business. Use the insight for your advantage, respond quickly to changes and maximise opportunities to protect your profits.
  • Expertise: Boost your capacity across the entire European power market-place and use the insights from our power market experts, to provide third-party analysis to back up your view.
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Access free resources from ICIS

Germany's coal phase-out: scenario analysis for the German power price to 2030

Earlier this year, a German coal commission was formed by the government and tasked to put forward a timeline for exiting coal generation.

This ICIS analysis provides insight into the working principles of the commission and evaluates four coal phase-out scenarios with regards to their impact on capacity development and German power prices up to 2030.

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The Automation Generation: How Automated Trade is Changing Europe's Energy Markets

Automated trading is booming on the European intra-day power markets and is about to take off on the intra-day gas markets. Power and gas companies are looking into more automated trade of long-term products too.

Will automation take over energy trade? This insight looks into reasons and ways to automate power and gas trade, the share of automated trade, its regulatory framework and future trends.

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European Power Summer Outlook Snapshot 2018

Wholesale electricity prices are set to remain on the high side in most European markets this summer, but the risk of price spikes will be mitigated in several countries by better hydropower stocks compared to the previous year.

This Power Summer Outlook Snapshot provides a brief overview of the drivers likely to influence power prices this summer, and an idea of what to expect in the coming months.

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