Energy and chemicals consulting

Leveraging deep industry expertise to drive sustainable growth and innovation

Strategy & transactions advisory

Driven by the global shift towards cleaner energy and circular materials, sustainable practices are increasingly being adopted throughout the energy and chemical industries. With the shift towards low-carbon product life cycles, business operations and innovation are being fundamentally altered.

This transformation in both the business and regulatory landscape is challenging businesses to adapt without sacrificing competitive advantage, particularly in consumer sectors such as agriculture, textiles, automobiles, packaging, construction and personal care.

Lower your carbon footprint and improve resource and operational efficiency with specialist strategic consultancy. Our dedicated energy, chemicals and sustainability consultants specialise in corporate strategy and investment due diligence across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific and the Americas. We advise on all aspects of strategic planning, from accessing recycling materials or implementing more sustainable product development, to gas monetisation, refining integration, hydrogen or M&A and project finance.

How we can help you

With our deep understanding of the key trends shaping energy, chemicals and sustainability we can guide you through every aspect of strategic planning, from early-stage development to new investments and asset evaluations.

Energy transition

How can the chemicals industry achieve climate neutrality?
What is the role of hydrogen in low-carbon chemicals?
Which feedstocks will support the energy transition?

Strategy

How can a country develop its petrochemical industry?
Which products will maximise value from local feedstock?
Is a strategy robust enough in different demand scenarios?

Sustainability

What is CBAM’s impact on industry competitiveness?
What are the carbon emissions per tonne of a product?
Which technology innovations will drive recycling advancements?

Transactions

What are the project risks and mitigants for lenders?
Is a target asset a risky acquisition?
What opportunities for value creation does a transaction present?

Value chain integration

What strategy will best monetise gas feedstock?
How can a refinery mitigate demand risks?
Which solution will maximise refinery-petrochemical integration?

Industry intelligence

What strategy will retain cost competitiveness in global markets?
Which regions offer optimal investment opportunities?
How will future trade patterns impact profitability?

Our leadership

ICIS consultants are industry leaders who have been advising key energy and chemicals stakeholders on the energy transition, sustainability, strategy, transactions, litigation and expert witness services over the last three decades.

To get in touch with the team, please email consulting@icis.com.

Tin Nguyen
Global Head of Consulting, London

Tin is a senior advisor and business leader to a broad range of global clients within the energy and chemicals industry, with a track record spanning more than 20 years. He has a MEng in Biochemical Engineering from University College London.

Stefano Zehnder
Vice President, Consulting, Milan

Stefano has over 35 years’ experience in refining and petrochemical feedstocks, and leads on energy transition projections and scenario modelling. He supports strategy development for energy and chemical majors and the lending community.

Dr. Nuno Faísca
Vice President Consulting, London

Nuno specialises in project finance and M&A, with a focus on technical and commercial due diligence, technology evaluation and strategy development. He holds a PhD in Chemical Engineering from Imperial College London.

Bala Ramani
Vice President, Consulting, Singapore

With a degree in Chemical Engineering and a Global MBA, Bala specialises in thought leadership and strategic decision-making in the petrochemical sector. He covers project screening, investment evaluation and strategic roadmaps, focusing on sustainability and plastics circularity.

Dr. Regan Hartnell
Principal, Consulting, Singapore

Regan designed ICIS’ price forecasting methodology, and specialises in supporting chemical majors and the lending community on due diligence and strategy development. He holds a PhD in Chemistry from QUT, Australia.

James Ray
Vice President, Consulting, Houston

James’ expertise spans supply chain, purchasing advisory, litigation & expert witness for chemical majors and financial institutions. He has a particular emphasis on plastics, sustainability and recycling.

Case studies

Here are a selection of case studies showcasing our consultancy expertise.

A European refinery wanted to evaluate strategic options along the energy and chemicals value chain, to mitigate the risks presented by the energy transition and sustainability policies, while increasing business resilience.

A global chemical association asked us to develop different pathways for the industry to achieve climate neutrality, factoring in uncertainty over future availability of key resources and the roll-out of alternative technologies.

A European recycling industry association engaged us to deliver several studies on collection, sorting and end-use applications of recycled plastics, exploring various scenarios within the announced EU legislative framework.

A Middle Eastern chemicals producer needed assistance in planning its next investment cycle to retain a competitive edge, focusing on proximity to primary consumption markets, with a clear understanding of costs and margins.

An Eastern European company with access to natural gas and regional refinery output partnered with us to develop an investment roadmap that would better monetise gas liquids and maximise value retention within the country.

An investment fund asked us to perform buy-side technical and commercial due diligence on a chemical recycling asset, determining an investment case against a backdrop of multiple technologies and routes under development.

Why use ICIS Consulting?

Single point of contact

Streamline processes with our specialised team combining a wealth of experience in the technical and commercial aspects of the energy and chemical industries. We work as one team to assess risks and opportunities for value creation.

Unrivalled industry intelligence

Gain a competitive edge, with accurate forecasting and strategic planning based on unparalleled industry expertise. ICIS has been a leader in chemical and energy industry intelligence for over 150 years.

Timely, in-depth insights

Act with confidence, knowing that our advice is based on daily, first-hand industry updates and analysis. Our global team of over 300 energy and chemical subject matter experts report on markets around the clock.

Local expertise across the globe

See the full picture across commodities, countries and regions with insights from our network of ICIS energy and chemicals subject matter experts embedded in key markets around the world.

Improved stakeholder credibility

Strengthen your negotiating position and build stakeholder confidence with a trusted advisor by your side. ICIS is recognised as a leading provider to the energy and chemical industries.

Deep techno-economic expertise

Navigate the impact of disruptive technologies on future supply and value chain competitiveness with a team skilled in evaluating intellectual property and techno-economic risks.

ICIS News

Mexico’s improved fortunes on US tariffs propping up petchems demand – Entec exec

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Mexico’s chemicals fortunes seem to be turning for the better after the country was spared from the most punitive US’ import taxes, according to an executive at chemicals distributor Entec. Pedro Escalona, sales director at Entec Polymers, a subsidiary of global distribution major Ravago, said demand for most polymers has notably picked up in the past weeks, which were on hold now flowing to more optimistic customers. Among the main polymers, only polypropylene (PP) remains in the doldrums, said Escalona, haunted by low prices for the monomer. Overall though sentiment is on the up and has been so especially since 2 April, when the US announced sweeping tariffs but spared its trade partners within the USMCA free trade zone, Mexico and Canada. Prior tariffs in some sectors, however, remain, and Escalona said automotive seems for now the most problematic sector. “For the rest, people seem to start assuming Mexico will be spared from the worst possible scenario,” said Escalona. WHAT ONE MONTH CAN CHANGESpeaking to Escalona, practically everything seems to have changed in one month, with exception of PP. In an interview with ICIS during the plastics trade fair Plastimagen in Mexico City in mid-March, the Entec executive painted a doom-and-gloom picture of both chemicals and wider manufacturing, with falling prices and domestic and overseas woes mounting. As of Thursday, 24 April, this is what he had to say: “Even a month ago, or even less, even two weeks ago, there were a lot of people holding orders, saying they were unsure whether they would need the product for May, or even for June. Some large clients, while not cancelling any orders, were starting to say they may need to lower consumption going forward,” said Escalona. “But in the last few weeks, there is more confidence in general, and people are already confident in going out to make purchases. Everyone seems to be more optimistic in that we don't think anything will finally happen that will significantly affect Mexico’s economy.” A stone on the positive story, however, remains the large, petrochemicals intensive automotive sector on which US President Donald Trump had imposed tariffs prior to 2 April. Analysts have said the tariffs, in their current form, could greatly dent the sector’s competitiveness. But sources in chemicals remain optimistic Mexico could use this chance to increase its USMCA compliance, mostly related to rules of origin which would at the same increase its manufacturing stance and integrate it even more with the US economy. As the US tries to contain China’s formidable rise in global supply chains, other sources have said the US would shoot itself on the foot going against Canada and Mexico, economies which are now well integrated within the North American free trade zone. The battle should be, they said, North America as a block versus the other large trading blocs. “Automotive still has over its head a lot of uncertainty, because there are some issues that haven't been fully defined yet regarding automotive components. That's the only one that still has some uncertainty,” said Escalona. “Demand is not the best it could be, but it is not too bad either. PP is still suffering from low prices for the monomer, which is expected to fall further. But for the rest of plastics, PE [polyethylene], PS [polystyrene], and for PET [polyethylene terephthalate] there has been some notable price rises.” Escalona said that US companies must have done their important bit of lobbying to the Trump administration about how harming tariffs on Mexico could be for them, as well. The absence of Mexico and Canada on the board Trump exhibited on 2 April quickly raised the prospects that, behind the scenes, renegotiation of the USMCA deal is well underway, an assessment Escalona deemed possible. But equally, he said there may be starting to be a realization within the Trump administration that punitive, sudden import tariffs to certain countries – not least China – would deprive the US of key markets it needs to sell materials of which it is oversupplied. “[Very punitive tariffs on Mexico] Just wasn't convenient for the US. We’ll need to see what happens, but I think the US is also going to have to sit down and negotiate with China. The US is full of raw materials it exports to China – monomers such ethane, propane, benzene… That’s why prices are falling,” said Escalona. “There are many things they plan for, and the initial strategy was to renegotiate with tariffs as a pressure measure. But clearly, they are going to have to reconsider this and fine-tune several aspects.” DOMESTIC FRONT: LESS OPTIMISMWhile most analysts think Mexico has done good progress on issues key for Trump, such migration at the border and stricter measures to control fentanyl trade – a powerful drug which has caused havoc across the US – the domestic policies of President Claudia Sheinbaum remain a red flag for many chemicals players. With a declared intention to expand the welfare state, Mexico may be turning into the ‘nanny state’ which does not incentivize competitiveness, some sources said at Plastimagen. Moreover, fiscal policy has been loose under Sheinbaum’s predecessor, also from the left-leaning Morena party. The expansion in the welfare state was mostly funded by debt, and fiscal deficits were recurrent. Sheinbaum has promised to remedy that and seems more open to the necessary private investments needed in Mexico to propel it to be a key part in the nearshoring trend – North American companies bringing manufacturing facilities closer to home. But Sheinbaum has ploughed through other measures in parliament which are worrying business. Thanks to the supermajority of two thirds of seats in Parliament voters granted Morena in June 2024 – and propelled Sheinbaum to the top with 60% of popular vote – the government approved a judicial reform, which most analysts agree is to weaken the rule of law, in a country much needed of stronger rule of law. A key measure in the bill was that judges would be elected by voters, which has sparked fears the well-funded and strong organized crime will have it easier to silence the judiciary. Escalona, not impressed, said those elections for judges have started and told how he feels weird seeing advertisements by candidates on boards or media outlets. Seeing adverts to vote for judges clearly does not feel right, he came to say. “We have had plenty of politicians who were not prepared or educated for the positions they were chosen for. While it’s not optimal, it can be expected in a democracy. But the job of a judge, and in country like Mexico, is a completely different matter,” he said. “And, invariably, you can see all kinds of people running to be judges. It’s tremendous. We’ll need to see how this pans out, but everyone seems to agree that this will weaken the rule of law – and that is not good for economic development and stability." Interview article by Jonathan López

24-Apr-2025

Chems in longest slump in decades as tariffs stifle demand – Dow CEO

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The chemical industry is facing demand-stifling tariffs just as it is in one of its longest downturns in decades, the CEO of US-based Dow said on Thursday. Dow expects Q2 sales will be about $10.4 billion, down from $10.9 billion reported in Q2 2024. The company has intensified its cost cutting measures, announced 1,500 job cuts and delayed its Path2Zero project in Canada. "The reality is our industry is in one of the most protracted down cycles in decades, facing the third consecutive year of below 3% GDP growth," said Dow CEO Jim Fitterling. He made his comments during an earnings conference call. "This has been further exacerbated by geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns, which are weighing on demand globally." Dow highlighted tariffs, which will delay when the chemical industry returns to mid-cycle earnings, said Jeff Tate, Dow chief financial officer. Those tariffs could change trade flows, and could squeeze Dow's margins. Tighter margins could partially offset the benefits from demand, which Dow still expects will rise. TARIFFS DELAYING PURCHASES, STIFLING DEMANDThe tariffs have caused customers and consumers to delay purchases, Fitterling said. "We're just in an environment right now where in the marketplace, if you look at downstream demand, it doesn't matter if it's a consumer or one of our customers or somebody in the B2B world, they're all just kind of taking a wait and see approach. And that has that has an impact on what we think the long term," he said. "Right now, all this activity on tariffs is just stifling the demand." HIGH US MORTGAGE RATES DELAYING HOUSING RECOVERYElevated interest rates for home loans have made housing less affordable for consumers. As a result, home sales have remained depressed, and has dragged down demand for paints, coatings, polyurethanes and other chemical products used in house construction. The slump in house sales is also lowering demand for appliances, furniture and other durable goods because consumers tend to buy these when they move. Fewer home sales mean fewer moves. Tate noted that March marked the 14th consecutive month of year-on-year declines in building permits. SLOWER GROWTH IN AUTO DEMANDGrowth in automobile demand and the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) are slowing, said Karen Carter, Dow chief operating officer. The spike that took place in the US in March was the result of consumers making purchases before tariffs kicked in. China is relying on incentives to prop up its market. In the EU, February new car registrations fell by their largest amount since September 2024. PHARMACEUTICALS, DATA CENTERS REMAIN BRIGHT SPOTSDow continues to see pockets of growth in pharmaceuticals and data centers. Electronics and personal care applications have proven to be resilient end market for the company's Performance Materials & Coatings segment. Q2 OUTLOOKThe following table summarizes Dow's Q2 outlook. (Thumbnail shows polyethylene, a product made by Dow. Image by ICIS.)

24-Apr-2025

Saudi Arabia, India plan to jointly build two oil refineries

MUMBAI (ICIS)–Two oil refineries will be built in India as part of Saudi Arabia’s $100-billion investment pledged to the south Asian nation which would cover cooperation in multiple areas, including energy and petrochemicals. High-level joint task force finalizes plans for joint cooperation in multiple sectors Both countries to develop supply chains, projects linked to energy sector Green hydrogen infrastructure collaboration plans on The projects, which will be built in partnership with the Indian government, and agreements to enhance cooperation with the world’s biggest crude exporter across various industries were announced on 22 April, during a state visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Saudi Arabia. Collaborations are also planned in the pharmaceuticals, infrastructure, technology, fintech, digital infrastructure, telecommunications, manufacturing and health sectors, among others, according to a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) of India on 23 April. In 2023, the two countries agreed to set up a joint committee to expedite Saudi Arabia’s $100-billion investments in India which was announced in February 2019. A high-level task force set up by the two countries has now finalised plans in multiple areas which will allow both countries to begin work soon, the PMO stated. The countries will also work towards developing supply chains and projects linked to the energy sector, it added. The two nations have agreed to enhance cooperation in the supply of crude oil and its derivatives, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the government statement said, adding that collaborations in the field of green hydrogen, including developing hydrogen transport and storage technologies, would also be explored. Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth largest trading partner and is the third largest exporter of crude oil to the south Asian country. In the fiscal year ending March 2024, India’s goods imports from Saudi Arabia stood at $31.4 billion, while exports to the nation were at around $11.6 billion, official data showed. Its major exports to Saudi Arabia include petroleum products, engineering goods, rice, chemicals, textiles, food products while imports from Saudi include crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), fertilisers, chemicals, plastics, among others. RATNAGIRI MEGA REFINERY PROJECT IN QUESTION About seven years ago, Saudi Arabia signed a deal with Indian refiners to build a mega refinery and petrochemical complex in the west coast of India, but the project hit a snag. The 60 million tonne/year project in the Maharastra state which was estimated to cost $44 billion to build was supposed to be commissioned by 2022, faced delays due to land acquisition problems. Opposition to the project continues and there has been no breakthrough in discussions with villagers in the area. There was no official announcement from the central government on the fate of the proposed Ratnagiri mega-refinery and petrochemical project. Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, in a February 2025 interview at an Indian daily Economic Times, had said that instead of one mega refinery project, three small ones will be built – one in Ratnagiri and the other two will be in two other states in southern India. The refineries will each have a 20 million tonne/year capacity, he said. Indian petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri in January this year announced plans to build smaller refineries at different locations in the country. Focus article by Priya Jestin

24-Apr-2025

BLOG: Companies have less than 90 days to plan for the Trump 2.0 Tariff War

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at what companies need to do to prepare for Trump’s tariff war. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

24-Apr-2025

Italy’s Eni extends chemicals operating loss in Q1 on macro headwinds

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Eni’s chemical business reported an adjusted operating loss of €243 million in the first quarter of 2025 on a continuing downturn in the European chemical sector amid economic headwinds and pressures from US and Asian players, the Italy-headquartered producer said on Thursday. Chemicals € million Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Proforma adjusted EBIT – 334 – 53 Eni's chemicals business is managed by Versalis. Sales of chemical products fell by 7% year on year in the first quarter amid lower demand and plant shutdowns. Plant utilization rates averaged 54% year on year in the first quarter, a 5% drop from the same period last year. Margins remained weak across the board as commodity prices could not offset feedstock and energy input expenses, “due to European headwinds, sluggish economic activity, and competitive pressures from players with better cost structures”, the company said.

24-Apr-2025

S Korea, Vietnam clamp down on illegal transshipment, origin fraud amid US talks

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea and Vietnam are stepping up efforts to clamp down on illegal transshipments of goods to the US from third countries, amid US concerns that third-country shipments are being used to circumvent tariffs imposed on China. The Korea Customs Service has established an investigation team to crack down on illegal transshipments to align with US tariff policies, it said in a statement on 21 April. 145% tariffs on China by the US has led to suppliers seeking to move trade elsewhere, but cases of origin fraud were detected South Korea. The agency identified multiple cases where Chinese goods were transshipped through South Korea, falsely labeled as Korean-made, and exported to the US to evade high tariffs, including anti-dumping duties, the statement said. It highlighted 75% of detected cases in early 2025 involving exports to the US, with a focus on high-value goods, particularly batteries and raw materials, used in production and export. One highlighted case involved a Chinese-established company in South Korea for the import of 1.2 million Chinese-made batteries, valued at Korean won (W) 74 billion that were falsely labelled as Korean-made. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) issued a directive on 15 April focusing on strengthening the management of goods’ origin to counter fraud and protect the country’s reputation as an exporter, the government website reported. It highlighted more stringent checks at customs to comply with free trade agreement (FTA) origin criteria, maintain trade benefits, and avoid anti-dumping or anti-subsidy investigations. Strict penalties will be issued to those that attempt to circumvent tariffs via illegal transshipments and origin fraud, the directive stated. Vietnam has been slapped with 46% “reciprocal” tariffs by the Trump administration, while South Korea received 25% tariffs, with both currently paused until early July. Both countries are currently engaging in urgent talks with US trade representatives as the tariffs threaten to harm global economic growth significantly. South Korea’s GDP contracted by 0.1% year on year in the first three months of 2025 amid political chaos and a trade war between the US and China, the Bank of Korea (BoK) said on Thursday. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy

24-Apr-2025

S Korea Q1 economy contracts on weak consumption, exports

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea's economy shrank by 0.1% year on year in the first quarter as domestic consumption remained in the doldrums amid a prolonged political crisis, while exports fell on US tariffs, central bank data showed on Thursday. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first three months of 2025, shrinking for the first time since Q2 2024, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said in a statement. Goods exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy slipped by 0.8% year on year in the first quarter, reversing the 2.6% growth in Q4 2024. Latest data for the first 20 days of April point to further weakness for South Korea's exports, falling by 5.2% year on year. South Korea is a major importer of raw materials like crude oil and naphtha, which it uses to produce a variety of petrochemicals, which are then exported. The country is a major exporter of aromatics such as benzene, toluene, and styrene. Private consumption, accounting for roughly half of the country's GDP, increased by 0.9% year over year in the first quarter, lower than the 1.6% growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2024. Manufacturing expanded at a slower pace of 0.4% year on year in the first quarter, from the 2.2% growth in the last three months of 2024. South Korea's economy is facing headwinds on multiple fronts. The country is still reeling from the political chaos triggered by former President Yoon Suk Yeol's surprise martial law declaration on 3 December, which lasted just a few hours, and ultimately led to his removal from office on 4 April. South Korea will hold a snap election on 3 June to replace Yoon after the country’s Constitutional Court unanimously upheld a decision by the legislature to impeach Yoon. The trade-dependent economy is also grappling with the impact of the US' broad tariff scheme. A 25% US reciprocal tariff announced for South Korea that was supposed to take effect on 9 April was suspended by US President Donald Trump for 90 days. During this temporary suspension, South Korea is subject to the 10% baseline tariff and its auto industry remains affected by a 25% tariff on automobiles, which is separate from the reciprocal tariff and not paused. The central bank forecasts a slower GDP growth of 1.5% for South Korea this year, after posting a 2.0% growth in 2024. BoK governor Rhee Chang-yong on 17 April, however, said that the growth forecast might still be too optimistic, citing Trump's tariff policy and its sectoral tariffs, as well as levies on China, which is South Korea’s biggest market. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image: At a container pier in South Korea's southeastern port city of Busan on 1 November 2023.(YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

24-Apr-2025

Fitch Ratings lowers global auto outlook due to tariffs, forecasts 6.7% fall in US sales

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fitch Ratings lowered its global automotive sector outlook to “deteriorating” from “neutral”, and lowered its US sales forecast by 6.7% to 15.2 million from 16.3 million because of US tariffs on auto imports. “Tariffs are likely to lead to production cuts and increased costs, potentially driving issuers’ profitability,” the ratings agency said. On 26 March, the US imposed a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and certain auto parts, which went into effect on 2 April despite a 90-day delay on other announced tariffs. “This measure poses a significant risk for automakers importing vehicles manufactured in Mexico, Canada, Japan, Korea and Germany to the US,” Fitch said. Patrick Manzi, chief economist at the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), said that if tariffs go into effect as planned, he expects vehicle prices to increase, sales to decrease, and production to fall – although the degree is difficult to quantify. US March sales of new light vehicles jumped 11% on a seasonally adjusted basis from February as buyers rushed to make purchases ahead of the automotive tariffs. ICIS senior economist for global chemicals Kevin Swift said the surge was likely from consumers and fleet owners pulling forward purchases to beat the new tariffs. Some respondents in the US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book agreed with Swift’s assessment. Some auto dealers in the Cleveland Fed region reported that the threat of tariffs drove customers to make purchases before potential price increases. “Several retailers had difficulty forecasting the impacts of policy and economic uncertainty on consumer demand, and they worried that consumer spending would pull back further,” the Cleveland Fed said. The Beige Book is a summary of US economic activity during the past six weeks among the 12 Federal Reserve districts with data for the most recent report collected before 14 April. Fitch’s action comes just after the ratings agency cut its GDP growth assumptions for the US by 0.4 percentage points in March and a further 0.5 percentage points more recently in a special update to its quarterly outlook. “Although we expect direct tariff implications to vary among automakers, depending on their production footprint, pricing power and supply chain configuration, no issuer will be fully immune to declining consumer confidence and lower automotive demand,” Fitch said. Fitch expects global automakers to increase selling prices to account for the tariffs, with some that are unable to raise prices sufficiently making “painful adjustments” to production and sales plans. AUTO PARTS SUPPLY CHAINS Fitch said impacts of tariffs on auto parts suppliers are less transparent because of complexities in their supply chains, including productions hits from delays. This impact will be partially offset as tariffs are currently delayed for imports that are compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. Fitch estimates that about 60% of auto parts are USMCA-compliant. Tariff-related uncertainties may lead to fluctuations in production volumes, which could weigh on chemicals demand. CHEMS USED IN AUTOS Demand for chemicals in auto production comes from, for example, antifreeze and other fluids, catalysts, plastic dashboards and other components, rubber tires and hoses, upholstery fibers, coatings and adhesives, Swift said. Virtually every component of a light vehicle, from the front bumper to the rear taillights, features some chemistry. The latest data indicate that polymer use is about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle. EVs and associated battery markets are an important growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for EVs. Visit the ICIS topic page Automotive: Impact on Chemicals Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail image shows autos on a lot in Colorado. Photo by David Zalubowski/AP/Shutterstock

23-Apr-2025

EU chemicals trade balance outgrows other segments in Feb

LONDON (ICIS)–Chemicals imports and exports to and from the EU increased in February, according to the latest data released by Eurostat on Wednesday. The segment for chemicals and related products recorded the highest growth  in trade balance of those outlined in February compared to a year prior. While imports rose by 16%, exports increased by more than a third compared to February 2024. Table shows monthly change in €billions compared to the previous year.Source: Eurostat European chemicals producers have been struggling to remain competitive with other regions, due to a complex regulatory landscape and higher energy prices. The increase in exports demonstrates resilient demand for specialised materials made in Europe, especially if those products cannot be manufactured elsewhere. This builds on the growth in January, when the chemicals segment was the only one to record an increase compared to the previous year. Eurostat’s initial estimates is that the overall EU trade balance in goods with the rest of the world stood at a surplus of €23.0 billion in February, compared to €21.8 billion a year prior. Data from Eurostat is subject to revision following publication.

23-Apr-2025

Cost push, tight supply buoy up few Asia petrochemicals amid general slump

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–While the US-led trade war has roiled Asia’s petrochemicals market, sending prices of some on free fall, a selected few products have bucked the trend due to rising feedstock cost and tightening supply, but the support may be temporary amid global economic headwinds. Oxo-alcohols to lead April price gains in April – ICIS forecast Trade war weighs on demand, economic growth China warns countries against striking US trade deals at its expense Spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were tracking gains in feedstock propane as production in China is being curtailed by high cost. About a third of China’s propylene production is produced via the propane dehydrogenation (PDH) route, but imports of feedstock propane from the US are now subject to hefty tariffs amid the renewed US-China trade war. Meanwhile, spot prices of oxo-alcohols such as 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH), dioctyl phthalate (DOP), and n-butanol (NBA) have risen as constrained production tightened supply. Supply-side pressures have allowed them to outperform despite weakness in the broader market. For epichlorohydrin (ECH), prices were largely stable, supported by limited availability, with plants in northeast Asia running at below 50% of capacity. Meanwhile, restocking was taking place in China ahead of the week-long Labor Day holiday in early May. ECH is a chemical intermediate used in the production of synthetic rubbers, resins, and pharmaceuticals, among other industrial uses. Downstream epoxy resins prices are also stable amid restocking following price falls in March. In the fatty alcohol mid-cut market, prices are rising on tightened supply and elevated cost of feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) in Indonesia. Two regional plants – one in Malaysia and another in Indonesia – are currently shut for scheduled maintenance, while another plant in Malaysia remains shut due to an unplanned outage in early April. The Malaysian plant was shut at the start of the month due to a fire incident. Generally, demand has remained soft as buyers adopt a risk-mitigation strategy to better navigate the uncertain market, ICIS analyst Ann Sun said. The majority of chemical prices are forecast to decline in tandem with falling oil prices, weighed down by recessionary fears, Sun added. Amid uncertainties surrounding markets, traders – notably those in China – are searching for alternative paths away from the US towards regions with lower tariffs such as southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Some US goods bound for China are also being re-routed to other countries like India amid high tariffs. OUTLOOK The volume of world trade is expected to fall by as much as 1.5% if US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs are back on the menu after a 90-day suspension lapses, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Meanwhile, the US and China appears to be on an all-out trade war, having imposed tariffs exceeding 100% on each other. Export front-loading is taking place globally as markets seek to avoid further complications wrought by future tariff announcements by the US. But not all countries have posted export growth. South Korean exports fell in the first 20 days of April by 5.2% year on year – the first signs that US tariffs are beginning to hit global trade hard, said Min Joo Kang, senior economist for South Korea and Japan at Dutch financial institution ING. In southeast Asia, Malaysia’s gross exports in March grew by 6.8% year on year, led by front-loading ahead of Eid ul Fitr festival, Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research economists said in a note on 21 April. Eid ul Fitr marks the end of Ramadan, the Muslim fasting month. But UOB predicted a dimmer external trade outlook ahead for Malaysia, depending on how tariff negotiations with the US pan out. Malaysia, along with other ASEAN member nations such as Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, is sending a trade delegation to the US on 24 April. The southeast Asian country was slapped with 24% tariffs by Trump on 2 April prior to the levies’ 90-day suspension. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 4.4% year on year between January-March amid worries of lower growth outlook for 2025. Markets in southeast Asia, which were some of the hardest-hit by Trump’s tariffs, are anxiously waiting for the results of trade negotiations with the US before the 90-day suspension is up in July. Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged southeast Asian governments to unite against “unilateralism” during his recent tour of Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. Separately, China warned countries against striking deals with the US at its expense, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said on 21 April. “Sacrificing others’ interests to obtain so-called exemptions for temporary selfish gains is akin to negotiating with a tiger; it ultimately leads to failure for both parties and harms everyone involved,” it said. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Additional reporting by Matthew Chong, Izham Ahmad, Claire Gao, Helen Yan, Josh Quah, Aswin Kondapally and Julia Tan Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

23-Apr-2025