Energy and chemicals consulting
Leveraging deep industry expertise to drive sustainable growth and innovation
Bespoke strategy and transactions advisory
Driven by the global shift towards cleaner energy and circular materials, sustainable practices are increasingly being adopted throughout the energy and chemical industries. With the shift towards low-carbon product life cycles, business operations and innovation are being fundamentally altered.
This transformation in both the business and regulatory landscape is challenging businesses to adapt without sacrificing competitive advantage, particularly in consumer sectors such as agriculture, textiles, automobiles, packaging, construction and personal care.
Lower your carbon footprint and improve resource and operational efficiency with specialist strategic consultancy. Our dedicated energy, chemicals and sustainability consultants specialise in corporate strategy and investment due diligence across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific and the Americas. We advise on all aspects of strategic planning, from accessing recycling materials or implementing more sustainable product development, to gas monetisation, refining integration, hydrogen or M&A and project finance.
How we can help you
With our deep understanding of the key trends shaping energy, chemicals and sustainability we can guide you through every aspect of strategic planning, from early-stage development to new investments and asset evaluations.
Energy transition
How can the chemicals industry achieve climate neutrality?
What is the role of hydrogen in low-carbon chemicals?
Which feedstocks will support the energy transition?
Strategy
How can a country develop its petrochemical industry?
Which products will maximise value from local feedstock?
Is a strategy robust enough in different demand scenarios?
Sustainability
What is CBAM’s impact on industry competitiveness?
What are the carbon emissions per tonne of a product?
Which technology innovations will drive recycling advancements?
Transactions
What are the project risks and mitigants for lenders?
Is a target asset a risky acquisition?
What opportunities for value creation does a transaction present?
Value chain integration
What strategy will best monetise gas feedstock?
How can a refinery mitigate demand risks?
Which solution will maximise refinery-petrochemical integration?
Industry intelligence
What strategy will retain cost competitiveness in global markets?
Which regions offer optimal investment opportunities?
How will future trade patterns impact profitability?
Our leadership
ICIS consultants are industry leaders who have been advising key energy and chemicals stakeholders on the energy transition, sustainability, strategy, transactions, litigation and expert witness services over the last three decades.
To get in touch with the team, please email consulting@icis.com.
Tin Nguyen
Global Head of Consulting, London
Stefano Zehnder
Vice President, Consulting, Milan
Dr. Nuno Faísca
Vice President Consulting, London
Bala Ramani
Vice President, Consulting, Singapore
Dr. Regan Hartnell
Principal, Consulting, Singapore
James Ray
Vice President, Consulting, Houston
Case studies
Here are a selection of case studies showcasing our consultancy expertise.
A European refinery wanted to evaluate strategic options along the energy and chemicals value chain, to mitigate the risks presented by the energy transition and sustainability policies, while increasing business resilience.
A global chemical association asked us to develop different pathways for the industry to achieve climate neutrality, factoring in uncertainty over future availability of key resources and the roll-out of alternative technologies.
A European recycling industry association engaged us to deliver several studies on collection, sorting and end-use applications of recycled plastics, exploring various scenarios within the announced EU legislative framework.
A Middle Eastern chemicals producer needed assistance in planning its next investment cycle to retain a competitive edge, focusing on proximity to primary consumption markets, with a clear understanding of costs and margins.
An Eastern European company with access to natural gas and regional refinery output partnered with us to develop an investment roadmap that would better monetise gas liquids and maximise value retention within the country.
An investment fund asked us to perform buy-side technical and commercial due diligence on a chemical recycling asset, determining an investment case against a backdrop of multiple technologies and routes under development.
Why use ICIS Consulting?
Single point of contact
Streamline processes with our specialised team combining a wealth of experience in the technical and commercial aspects of the energy and chemical industries. We work as one team to assess risks and opportunities for value creation.
Unrivalled industry intelligence
Gain a competitive edge, with accurate forecasting and strategic planning based on unparalleled industry expertise. ICIS has been a leader in chemical and energy industry intelligence for over 150 years.
Timely, in-depth insights
Act with confidence, knowing that our advice is based on daily, first-hand industry updates and analysis. Our global team of over 300 energy and chemical subject matter experts report on markets around the clock.
Local expertise across the globe
See the full picture across commodities, countries and regions with insights from our network of ICIS energy and chemicals subject matter experts embedded in key markets around the world.
Improved stakeholder credibility
Strengthen your negotiating position and build stakeholder confidence with a trusted advisor by your side. ICIS is recognised as a leading provider to the energy and chemical industries.
Deep techno-economic expertise
Navigate the impact of disruptive technologies on future supply and value chain competitiveness with a team skilled in evaluating intellectual property and techno-economic risks.
ICIS News
Shell Singapore site divestment deal to be completed in Q1 2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shell expects the deal to sell its energy and chemicals park in Singapore to Chandra Asri and Glencore will be completed by the first quarter of 2025, a company spokesperson said on Thursday. Shell assets will be key to Chandra Asri’s growth strategy Chandra Asri plans for second petrochemical complex still unclear Closing of deal originally scheduled for end-2024 The energy major on 8 May announced the sale, which includes the physical assets and commercial contracts in Singapore, to CAPGC – a joint venture majority-owned by Chandra Asri with Glencore holding a minority stake – for an undisclosed fee. The transaction was initially scheduled to be completed by the end of 2024. “The divestment is subject to regulatory clearance and other customary closing conditions,” the spokesperson said. “Subject to regulatory approval, the transaction is expected to complete by the first quarter of next year.” Shell and CAPGC have also signed crude supply and product offtake agreements that will come into effect following completion. A new entity under CAPGC called Aster Chemicals and Energy will operate the facilities and handle its crude oil purchases and fuel sales, newswire agency Reuters said in a 13 November report, citing unnamed sources. The Shell Energy and Chemicals Park (SECP) in Singapore comprises its integrated refining and chemicals assets on Pulau Bukom and Jurong Island. The Pulau Bukom assets include a 237,000 barrel/day refinery and a 1.1 million tonne/year ethylene cracker. It was Singapore’s first refinery in 1961. SECP KEY TO CHANDRA ASRI'S GROWTH PLANSChandra Asri in a 4 October statement said that its move to acquire the SECP assets aligns with its growth strategy of “going global” as it seeks to expand in the energy, chemical and infrastructure sector not only in Indonesia but also abroad. “Through SECP, which is one of the largest oil refineries and trading hubs in the world, Chandra Asri Group will source petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel, gas oil, and bitumen to support various industries in Indonesia,” the company said. “Additionally, Chandra Asri Group will help fill gaps in the supply of chemical products, such as monoethylene glycol (MEG), polyols, and ethylene, propylene, and styrene monomers, to support manufacturing processes in the country,” it said. “This will ensure that the country’s energy supply is secured as well as reducing dependencies on foreign entities.” In a presentation to investors in early August, Chandra Asri said that it will establish offtake agreements for both fuel and chemical products, utilizing Glencore's extensive trading network to “secure beneficial arrangements”. Chandra Asri currently operates Indonesia's sole naphtha cracker in Cilegon, which can produce 900,000 tonnes/year of ethylene and 490,000 tonnes/year of propylene. The new assets in Singapore will boost Chandra Asri’s overall production capacity from around 4.2 million tonnes/year currently to more than 18 million tonnes/year by 2026. The company is also the sole domestic producer of styrene monomer, ethylene, butadiene (BD), MTBE, and butene-1, with a new world-scale chlor-alkali ethylene dichloride (EDC) plant development on the horizon. The company’s planned second petrochemical complex, dubbed CAP2, in Cilegon includes a chlor-alkali plant that is expected to produce 420,000 tonnes/year of caustic soda and 500,000 tonnes/year of EDC. The chlor-alkali plant is expected to be completed by the end of 2026 but Chandra Asri has not yet provided a firm timeline of the other proposed plants previously announced for CAP2. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: Chandra Asri’s olefins plant in Cilegon, Banten province (Source: Chandra Asri official website)
14-Nov-2024
Fire at Indian Oil’s Mathura refinery injures eight people
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Eight people were injured at a fire that broke out at Indian Oil Corp’s (IOC) Mathura refinery in the northern Uttar Pradesh state on the evening of 12 November, the energy company said in a statement. The blaze erupted at about 07:00 GMT (01:30 GMT) on 12 November during start-up of a crude distillation unit (CDU) at the site after a planned maintenance, it said. Located along the Delhi-Agra National Highway about 154 kilometers away from Delhi, the Mathura refinery has a capacity of 8 million tonnes/year. “Three of the injured have been admitted to Apollo Hospital, Delhi, while the others are receiving medical care locally,” IOC said. “All injured individuals are stable, and their recovery is being closely monitored,” it added. The blaze was extinguished with no disruption to refinery operations, it said. “The plant and machinery have not suffered any damage, and refinery activities are continuing as usual,” IOC said. The Mathura refinery incident happened a day after a fire hit IOC’s Gujarat refinery in western India on 11 November and killed two people.
14-Nov-2024
Canada ports prepare to resume operations, but timeline still unclear
TORONTO (ICIS)–The Port of Vancouver and other Canadian West Coast ports as well as the Port of Montreal were preparing on Wednesday to resume operations, but the exact timeline remains unclear, officials said in updates. The government on Tuesday directed the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to order the resumption of all operations at the ports and to settle pending labor disputes through binding arbitration. It may take a couple of days before operations at the ports resume, according to the country’s labor minister. The CIRB is an independent agency with its own procedures. The Port of Vancouver acknowledged the government intervention but said that a timeline for full resumption of impacted operations has yet to be determined. The Port of Montreal said that cargo handling activities would gradually resume over the coming days, subject to when the CIRB issues its order. It would take several weeks to clear terminal backlogs and restore the fluidity of supply chains, it added. Labor disruptions at Vancouver and the other West Coast ports were at their 10th day on Wednesday, and at Montreal they were at their 14th day. In the chemical industry, trade group Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC) welcomed the government intervention. More than Canadian dollar (C$) 22 million ($15.7 million) of chemistry and plastic products was traded through Vancouver and other West Coast ports each day in 2023, for a total of C$8 billion for the year, CIAC said. This includes products that go into making chlorine and related products for municipal drinking water and exports of organic chemicals and resins to global markets, it said. The government needed to do more to avoid “harmful disruptions to our trade infrastructure”, said CIAC president and CEO Bob Masterson. Canada has a limited number of ports that are capable of handling large container ships that are capable of shipping goods to foreign markets, he said. “Continued disruptions signal the wrong message to our trading partners and companies who want to invest in Canada: that Canada cannot be relied on to get their products where they need to go,” he said. Meanwhile, the unions representing the port workers said they would challenge the government’s intervention in the disputes in court. Earlier, another labor union, Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC), filed a court challenge against the government's move in August to intervene and end a freight rail labor dispute. That case has not yet been decided. The unions argue that the government interventions violate workers' rights to strike. ($1=C$1.4) Thumbnail shows containers that are commonly handled in ports. Image by Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
13-Nov-2024
INSIGHT: European cracker shutdowns could open market to US ethylene exports
HOUSTON (ICIS)–European ethylene producers could be planning more cracker shutdowns, with the lost capacity being replaced by imports from the US. US ethylene export capacity is being expanded. Midstream companies are adding more US capacity to process the feedstock used to make ethylene. Outside of chemical feedstock, midstream companies see potential growth from energy demand from data centers. EUROPE MAY SHUT DOWN MORE CRACKERSUS-based midstream company and ethylene exporter Enterprise Products hinted that more shutdowns were possible beyond the ones announced this year by ExxonMobil, SABIC and Versalis. "We've heard from a lot of the chemical companies that they are doing strategic reviews of their European assets," said Christopher D'Anna, senior vice president, petrochemicals. He made his comments during an earnings conference call. "So, we expect to see some closures, and we expect that to lead to additional ethylene exports going that way," D'Anna said. Among the region's crackers that rely predominantly on naphtha, most produce less than 700,000 tonnes/year of ethylene, which prevents them from benefiting from economies of scale, according to ICIS data. Europe's elevated energy costs pile on the problems faced by these smaller naphtha crackers. US INCREASING ETHYLENE EXPORT CAPACITYUS ethylene exports surged in 2020 after Enterprise Products and Navigator Gas started shipping material out of their joint venture terminal at Morgan's Point, Texas. That terminal can export 1 million tonnes/year of ethylene. By the end of 2024, the two will complete an expansion project that can handle ethane or ethylene. If dedicated to ethylene, the expansion can export up to 500,000 tonnes/year of ethylene, bringing the total to 1.5 million tonnes/year. By the end of 2025, Enterprise and Navigator will complete another expansion at Morgan's Point, which will add even more flexible capacity. If dedicated to ethylene, this expansion could export up to 1.5 million tonnes/year of ethylene. In all, the Morgan's Point terminal could export up to 3 million tonnes/year of ethylene if it chooses to dedicate all of its flexible capacity to ethylene. As new Enterprise ethane capacity comes online during 2025 and 2026, additional flex train capacity can be utilized for ethylene. In addition, Navigator has ordered two carriers that can each carry 48,500 cubic meters of liquid ethylene, with delivery scheduled for March 2027 and July 2027. The carriers have the flexibility to carry ethane, ammonia or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). EXPORTS AND US ETHYLENE BALANCEIf Enterprise and Navigator decide to maximize ethylene exports at its Morgan's Point terminal, it would likely tighten the US market, since the new crackers being proposed and built are integrated with downstream units. But D'Anna's comments raises an interesting scenario. Europe may be willing to import ethylene to preserve its downstream units and its manufacturing base. In the future, US chemical producers could add ethylene capacity to serve a global ethylene market. Growing supplies of low-cost feedstock ethane in the US could make such a global ethylene market possible. ETHANE SUPPLIES CONTINUE GROWING IN THE USEthane produced from natural gas processing plants should reach 2.74 million bbl/day in 2025, steady from 2024, according to the Short Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). US oil and natural gas production should also continue increasing, with oil reaching 13.54 million bbl/day in 2025, and dry natural gas reaching 104.62 billion cubic feet/day, according to the EIA. As oil and natural gas production is set to rise steadily over the next two years, ethane output from processing plants is also projected to increase, according to Kojo Orgle, feedstock analyst for ICIS. Orgle monitors the US markets for ethane and other petrochemical feedstock. With limited growth in domestic ethane consumption as a petrochemical feedstock, additional supply will need to be directed toward exports. Consequently, the ethane market will rely heavily on expansions in US waterborne NGL export capacity. Ethane supplies hit record highs this year and may continue to grow if new outlets do not keep pace with production. OTHER MIDSTREAM DEVELOPMENTSEnterprise noted future demand for natural gas from data centers being built in Texas and from new power plants being developed under the recent Texas Energy Fund. Energy Transfer Partners is pursuing similar opportunities for power plants and data centers throughout its natural gas network, from Arizona to Florida and from Texas to Michigan. Energy Transfer received requests to connect to about 45 power plants in 11 states that could consume gas loads of up to 6 billion cubic feet/day. For data centers, Energy Transfer received requests from 40 that could consume gas loads of up to 10 billion cubic feet/day. EnLink Midstream said data centers could represent at least 7.5% of US electricity consumption by 2030, up from 2.5%. With rising natural gas demand from data centers and continued capital discipline among producers, natural gas prices are projected to rise in 2025 and in 2026, Orgle said. Such demand growth could provide support for natural gas prices, which could raise prices for ethane. If US ethane export capacity does not grow fast enough to drive substantial ethane disposition, increased ethane rejection may occur as higher natural gas prices boost ethane’s fuel value, Orgle said. MIDSTREAM PROJECTS The following table shows some of the midstream projects being developed in the US. Company Project Type Capacity Units Location Startup Brazos Midstream Sundance I Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Martin County Oct-24 Brazos Midstream Unnamed Gas plant 300 million cubic feet/day – H2 2025 Delek Unnamed Gas Plant 110 million cubic feet/day Delaware H1 2025 Durango Midstream Kings Landing, Phase I Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Eddy County, NM Q4 24 Durango Midstream Kings Landing, Phase II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Eddy County, NM na Energy Transfer Frac IX Fractionator 165,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q4 26 Energy Transfer Badger Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware mid 25 Energy Transfer Permian processing expansions* Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Permian Energy Transfer Expansion of Nederland NGL terminal Terminal Up to 250,000 bbl/day Nederland, Texas mid 25 Energy Transfer Expansion of Orla East Gas pPlant 50 million cubic feet/day Orla, Texas Q3 24 Entergy Transfer Lonestar Express Expansion Pipeline 90,000 bbl/day 2026 Enterprise Fractionator 14 Fractionator 195,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q3 25 Enterprise Mentone West (Mentone 4) Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q3 25 Enterprise Mentone West 2 Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware h1 26 Enterprise Mentone 3 Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware in service Enterprise Leonidas Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Midland In service Enterprise Bahia NGL pipeline Pipeline 600,000 bbl/day Q3 25 Enterprise Neches River Terminal (NRT), phase 1 Terminal 120,000 ethane, 900,000 refrigerated tank Q3 25 Enterprise Neches River Terminal (NRT), phase 2 Terminal add 60,000 ethane to raise total to 180,000, Propane 360,000 H1 26 Enterprise Ethylene Export Expansion* Terminal 550,000-2m tonnes/year Q4 24 & Q4 25 Enterprise Orion Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Midland Q3 25 Enterprise Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal (EHT) LPG expansion Terminal 300,000 bl/day Houston Ship Channel end 2026 Gulf Coast Fractionators JV * GCF Fractionator Fractionator 135,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu 24-Nov Moss Lake Hackberry NGL Project Terminal 315,000 bbl Calcesieu Ship Channel NA Moss Lake Hackberry NGL Project Fractionator 300,000 bbl Calcesieu Ship Channel NA MPLX Preakness II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware started up MPLX Secretariat Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware H2 25 MPLX Harmon Creek II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Marcellus started up MPLX Harmon Creek III Gas plant 300 million cubic feet/day Marcellus H2 26 MPLX Harmon Creek III de-ethanizer 40,000 bbl/day Marcellus H2 26 MPLX BANGL pipeline** Pipeline expansion from 125,000 to 250,000 bbl/day Q1 25 ONEOK MB-6 Fractionator Fractionator 125,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu year end 24 ONEOK West Texas NGL Pipeline Expansion Pipeline increase to 740,000 bbl/day year end 24 ONEOK Elk Creek Pipeline Expansion**** Pipeline increase to 435,000 bbl/day Q1 25 ONEOK Medford Fractionator rebuild Fractionator 210,000 bbl/day Medord, Oklahoma Q4 26, Q1 27 Targa Train 9 Fractionator Fractionator 120,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu started up Targa Train 10 Fractionator Fractionator 120,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu started up Targa Train 11 Fractionator Fractionator 150,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q3 26 Targa Greenwood Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q4 23 Targa Greenwood II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland started up Targa Wildcat II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 24 Targa Roadrunner II Gas Plant 230 million cubic feet/day Delaware started up Targa Bull Moose Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 25 Targa Pembrook II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q4 25 Targa Daytona NGL Pipeline Pipeline 400,000 bbl/day Completed Targa LPG Export Expansion Terminal 1m bbl/month Q3 23 Targa Galena Park LPG terminal expansion Terminal 650,000 bbl/month H2 25 Targa Falcon II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 26 Targa Bull Moose II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q1 26 Targa East Pembrook Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q2 26 Targa East Driver Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q3 26 Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail photo: Polymer pellets (source: Shutterstock)
13-Nov-2024
INSIGHT: China hydrogen investments to gain momentum on Energy Law
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s Energy Law that will take effect in January 2025 is expected to drive investments in the domestic hydrogen sector as it will provide further policy support, and enable technological developments aimed at expanding the scope of hydrogen applications. Under the law, hydrogen will no longer be classified as a dangerous chemical product, thus, removing restrictions around its applications, production and storage. China’s hydrogen sector is currently in the demonstration phase, mainly focusing on commercial vehicle application. When the new legislation kicks in, hydrogen production and refuelling stations and storage facilities will be allowed outside designated chemical parks, and that is expected to address infrastructure gaps in the sector. Hefty transportation cost due to lack of hydrogen refuelling stations and long-distance pipelines has been one of the key bottlenecks that impede hydrogen adoption in China. Storage and transportation account for about 30% of end-use hydrogen costs, limiting hydrogen applications in urban public transport and long-haul sectors. With the new energy law, development of the Chinese hydrogen sector is expected to gain pace between 2026 and 2030. (See ICIS Hydrogen Topic Page for details) The China Energy Law was approved on 8 November at the 12th session of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislature. It fills a legislative gap since China – despite being the world's largest energy producer and consumer – had long lacked an overarching energy law. Currently, there are several standalone energy-related laws and regulations in the country, including the Electricity Law, the Coal Law, the Energy Conservation Law, and the Renewable Energy Law, but lacked a legislation that covers the whole energy industry until now. The recently launched Energy Law will provide a much-needed framework for strengthening the legal foundation of the energy sector, ensuring national energy security and promoting renewable and low-carbon transformation. The law includes nine sections, covering stipulations on energy planning, development and utilization, energy market systems, energy reserves and emergency measures, energy technology innovation, supervision and management, legal responsibilities, supplementary provisions. Insight article by Patricia Tao and Yu Yunfeng
13-Nov-2024
Asia petrochemical shares fall on strong US dollar, uncertain trade policies
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia extended losses on Wednesday, tracking weakness in regional bourses, amid a strong US dollar and uncertainty over trade policies of US President-elect Donald Trump which could fuel inflation. At 04:00 GMT, LG Chem fell by 4.75% in Seoul, while Mitsui Chemicals and Asahi Kasei were down by 2.90% and 0.88%, respectively, in Tokyo. Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) was down 1.79% in Taipei, while Sinopec Corp slipped 0.47% in Hong Kong. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 Index was down by 1.01% at 38,978.11; South Korea's KOSPI Composite fell by 1.91% to 2,435.04; and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slipped by 0.63% to 19,721.58. Sentiment toward Asian equities has shifted to caution following Trump's re-election on concerns that his policies will drive up inflation and prevent the US Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates further. The broad dollar index (DXY) rose further on 12 November to its highest since November 2022, according to Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research. The DXY, which measures the greenback against six peers, inched up 0.05% on Thursday to 105.97. A stronger US dollar makes imports more expensive for Asia, fueling inflation, and higher borrowing costs for the region. Japan and China rely heavily on imports for their energy and raw material needs. The South Korean won continued to slide against the greenback on Thursday, hovering above the psychologically important level of won (W) 1,400 at W1,406.57 to the US dollar. The Japanese yen (Y) also touched a fresh low since 30 July on Thursday and was trading at around Y154.8 to the US dollar. Thumbnail image: US dollar banknotes, 19 September 2024 (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
13-Nov-2024
Nissan 20% production cuts add to chem auto woes
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Warnings from chemical companies about upcoming auto shutdowns are becoming true, with Nissan becoming the latest automobile producer to announce reductions in its workforce and global production capacity after slashing its forecast for operating profits during its current fiscal year. Chemical producers have warned that automobile producers had started taking unscheduled and prolonged downtime in the third quarter, and the trend will continue in the fourth quarter. For Celanese, the downturn was sudden and painful, especially for its Engineered Materials segment, contributing to a big Q3 miss in its earnings and a decision to temporarily idle plants in the fourth quarter. Trinseo, which also makes engineered materials, expects a lot of its customers will shut down operations during the fourth quarter. The latest ICIS auto forecast still expects builds to increase in 2024. The rate of growth will slow in 2025. Automobiles represent a key end market for plastics and chemicals because nearly every component has some chemistry. The latest data indicate that polymer use is about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle. Chemicals are also used to make antifreeze and other fluids, catalysts, coatings and adhesives. AUTO CUTBACKS SO FARNissan plans to cut global production capacity by 20% and reduce its workforce by 9,000. The move is part of a plan to reduce fixed costs by 300 billion yen and variable costs by 100 billion yen when compared to its fiscal 2024, which will end on 31 March. Nissan has slashed its outlook for fiscal year 2024, as shown in the following table: Revised FY 24 Outlook Previous FY 24 Outlook Revenue 12,700.0 14,000.0 Operating profit 150.0 500.0 Source: Nissan Stellantis is cutting 1,100 jobs at its US plant in Toledo, Ohio, which produces Jeep vehicles, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal, a business publication. In the late summer, it reported Stellantis's plans to lay off 2,450 workers in Michigan state after it decided to end production of a truck model. Volkswagen has called for a 10% pay cut for workers in Germany in order to ensure its competitiveness and safeguard jobs. According to media reports, the auto major may close three of its 10 plants in Germany and cut thousands of jobs. Additional reporting by Stefan Baumgarten Thumbnail shows automobiles. Image by Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock.
12-Nov-2024
Mexico in strong position to renegotiate USMCA, tariff panic premature – Braskem Idesa exec
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–A potential US import tariff of 10% on Mexican goods is looming large on the country's export and petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing sectors, but it is early days and the worries are premature, according to the head of institutional relations at polyethylene (PE) producer Braskem Idesa. Sergio Plata, who is also the president of the Association of Industrialists of Veracruz State (Aievac), home to a large petrochemicals hub, added that Mexico is not only a supplier to the US – the country exports around 80% of what it produces to the US – but it is also a key consumer of US goods. Plata said this will be a crucial factor that will allow Mexico to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) from a position of strength when it is up for renewal in 2026. Although the focus in the past week has been on how Mexico could be hit by tariffs when Trump becomes US president – with some analysts forecasting a negative impact of 0.5-1% of GDP in a full year – Plata made a call to stay calm and carry on – for now. He argues that the tariffs will not be imposed overnight, saying that such topics are likely to be addressed within the context of the USMCA renegotiation, in more than a year’s time. Moreover said Plata, in Donald Trump’s first term, he ended up dropping some campaign promises under pressure from different lobby groups, not least businesses which could see input costs spike if new tariffs are implemented. “These [proposals would be] important challenges for Mexico, and I believe 2026’s USMCA renegotiation will be key for the entire North America so we can continue being and become more competitive,” said Plata. “Regarding tariffs, at this time we can only wait until the parties sit at the negotiating table, so we can have a dialogue with the US government. What I can certainly say is that NAFTA first and now USCMA have greatly served the three countries, a success which we should not measure only based on the trade balance.” The US trade balance – or deficit – is a key theme running through Trump’s tariff proposals as he wants to re-invigorate the US manufacturing sector, and produce as much as possible domestically. Indeed, the US consistently runs a large trade deficit with China and Mexico, its two main sources of manufactured goods. In 2022, Mexico exported goods worth $452 billion to the US, according to data from Comtrade via Trading Economics; the US, in turn, exported goods worth $323 billion to Mexico – a difference of nearly $130 billion. According to Plata, nothing is written about tariffs, at least within the USMCA, and issued a reminder of what happened when the USCMA was first signed, as a successor to NAFTA after Trump’s first administration demanded changes to a free trade deal it deemed disadvantageous. Despite the furore, tariffs were kept off the table because the US government eventually saw that tariffs within the USCMA would also negatively affect its own companies. Whether an emboldened Trump, with a clear popular mandate to implement his promises, will also give in this time remains to be seen. “We would be going too far ahead of ourselves if we already think a 10% tariff on Mexico will be imposed. We Mexicans must now make it clear to the US that the commercial relationship should not only be measured on the trade deficit, but rather on what Mexico gives to the US as well, and not just the other way around,” said Plata. “Because Mexico also generates North America-wide economic development. I can speak for what I know best and only in this region, only in the south of the state of Veracruz, we import from the US around 1.3 million tonnes/year of chemicals and petrochemicals, resulting in billions of imports. The figures are important both ways and this will be brought to a potential negotiating table.” SHEINBAUM AND TRUMPA fascinating aspect for the years to come will be the personal relationship between the US and Mexican presidents, if any – Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum could not be more different ideologically. Sheinbaum’s backing of a supermajority in parliament of two-thirds may cause further friction going forward on top of that caused by the approval on 11 September of a controversial judicial reform which is opposed from many fronts. The US ambassador to Mexico has publicly sounded the alarm about Morena’s judicial reform (see statement here), as did the US chemicals trade group the American Chemistry Council (ACC) and nine other industrial peers who wrote to the US cabinet to “convey their concern” about the proposals. “Regarding the judicial reform, we have the basis for the state of law in the Constitution, and that is a framework that provides certainty,” said Plata. “The devil is in the details, and in coming weeks and months we’ll evidently have to pay attention in the secondary stages of the reform’s debate in parliament, which must be open to listen to the specialists,” said Plata. The Braskem Idesa executive preferred to bring the conversation back to Mexico’s 2026 challenge. One-party Morena reforms allowing, Plata said the current Mexican cabinet would head into a potential USMCA renegotiation in a strong position. “We are in a good position to negotiate, now more than ever, and this is because as a country we are in much better place than we were at in 1994, when Mexico signed NAFTA. At the time, the US and Mexico did not have the solid trade relationship they have today,” he said. “On the Mexican side, many things have changed for the better. Since the 1990s, we have signed more than 50 free trade agreements (FTAs) and the state has now excellent trade negotiators. As an industry and as a country, we are well prepared to sit at the table and reach a good outcome in 2026.” – ICIS will publish on Wednesday (13 November) the second part of this interview, focusing on Sheinbaum’s domestic policies towards chemicals. As President-Elect, she approached the industry and travelled to its Veracruz hub, gaining praise from Plata as well as other industrial groups. As President, is she keeping up that focus on fostering chemicals? Plata said she is – Read this Insight article for wider analysis on how new trade policies in the US could hit the Mexican economy Interview article by Jonathan Lopez
12-Nov-2024
German economic outlook bleaker in November after government collapse, Trump victory
LONDON (ICIS)–Germany’s economic outlook grew more pessimistic in November following the collapse of the country’s coalition government and Donald Trump’s victory in the US election. An assessment of the current economic situation in Europe’s largest chemicals producer was also bleaker, economic research group ZEW said on Tuesday. Its November, economic sentiment indicator fell by 5.7 points from the previous month to 7.4 points. ZEW’s indicator for the current situation was also down, by 4.5 points to -91.4 points. “Economic expectations for Germany have been overshadowed by Trump’s victory and the collapse of the German government coalition,” ZEW president Achim Wambach said in a statement. “Economic sentiment has declined – and the outcome of the US presidential election is likely to be the main reason for this. The fact that economic expectations for the USA are clearly rising, while economic sentiment for China and the eurozone is falling, supports this view,” Wambach added. The ZEW president also pointed to some optimism with expectations of improving economic prospects for Germany due to upcoming snap elections after the collapse of its coalition government on 7 November. For the eurozone, the group’s economic sentiment indicator fell by 7.6 points to 12.5 points, while the current situation index remained in negative territory at -43.8 points, down by 3.0 points from the previous month.
12-Nov-2024
Trump to bring limited tariffs; higher growth, rates – economists
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Under US President Donald Trump, US chemical companies will unlikely see the full-blown tariffs that he has proposed during his campaign, but they will operate under a faster growing economy with higher inflation and interest rates that will settle at an elevated rate, economists at Oxford Economics said on Monday. Oxford is forecasting what it calls a limited Trump scenario, under which his administration will not fully adopt the policies he proposed during his campaign. Tariffs will be limited, targeted and phased in, while Congress will limit growth in the government deficit by restraining some of his tax cuts and spending measures. Oxford's baseline scenario for 2025 does not change much because it is assuming that Trump will focus most of his first year in office on extending the tax cuts of his earlier administration, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist for Oxford Economics. He made his comments during a presentation. The consultancy's forecast for 2025 GDP is a tenth of a point higher versus its estimate in October, he said. Inflation will rise by a tenth of a point in 2025. Trump is inheriting a strong economy, so there is little risk of recession. In these initial years, the biggest effect on the US economy will be tax cuts, and these should increase growth in GDP, said Bernard Yaros, lead US economist for Oxford. After 2026, Oxford assumes Trump will adopt some of his immigration restrictions, and it is expecting GDP growth to fall below its earlier forecast. Stricter immigration policies will reduce the supply of labor and slow down the consumption of goods and services. LIMITED TARIFFSOxford expects the Trump administration will not impose the widespread tariffs it proposed during its campaign, which included 60% duties on Chinese imports and baseline tariffs of 10-20% on all imports. Yaros said these campaign proposals were likely negotiating tactics. Sweet expects that Trump will require Congress to pass some of his tariffs, and legislators will not pass such high rates, Sweet said. In other cases, advisors and trade representatives will restrain Trump. For China, Trump will likely impose tariffs of 25% on major categories, such as machinery, electronics and chemicals, Yaros said. For the EU, Canada and Mexico, Trump will likely impose very targeted tariffs on steel, aluminum, base metals and motor vehicles, Yaros said. For Canada and Mexico in particular, Trump will unlikely adopt measures that will threaten the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade agreement that his administration signed during his first term. That trade deal was one of the signature achievements of Trump's administration, so he will not want to pursue policies that will threaten the upcoming renewal of that agreement, Yaros said. While the tariffs will be limited, they will still be a drag on the economy by nudging inflation higher, reducing real consumer income, tempering consumer spending and encouraging the misallocation of resources, Yaros said. LIMITED TARIFFS REDUCE RETALIATION RISK FOR CHEMSOxford's scenario will limit the risk of countries imposing retaliatory tariffs on US exports. US chemical producers were vulnerable to such tariffs because they purposely added capacity for export over the years, particularly for polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The magnitude of these exports and the existence of a global glut in plastics and chemicals would make US chemical exports a likely target for retaliatory tariffs. On the import side, the US does have deficits in key commodity chemicals, such as benzene. Targeted tariffs could carve out exceptions for benzene was well as other chemicals in which the US has a trade deficit, such as methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and melamine. Targeted tariffs will likely rule out duties on imports of oil. US refineries rely on imports of heavier grades of oil to optimize the operations of some of their units. US shale oil makes up nearly all of the growth in the nation's crude production, and that oil is made up of light grades. Meanwhile, tariffs could shield some chemicals from competition, such as epoxy resins. CONGRESS MAY LIMIT GROWTH IN DEFICITOxford pointed out that some moderate Republicans could restrain some of Trump's tax and spending proposals to limit growth in the government deficit, Yaros said. Other economists have expressed concerns that the US will issue larger amounts of government debt to fund the growing deficit. That would lead to a cascade effect that could ultimately increase rates for US mortgages, which would slow down the housing market and the plastics and chemicals connected to that market. Still, all of Oxford's scenarios forecast a rise in the government deficit. SLOWER RATE CUTS BY FEDOxford expects Trump's policies will be inflationary, which will prompt the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of cuts on their benchmark federal funds rate. It expects the federal funds rate will settle at 3.125%, versus its forecast of 2.75% that was made in October. TRUMP WILL PRESERVE MOST RENEWABLE TAX CREDITSTrump will likely preserve most of the tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) because most of them benefitted states controlled by his party, the Republicans, Yaros said. These include tax credits on renewable fuels, renewable power, hydrogen and carbon capture. The exception will include incentives for electric vehicles (EV), which Trump had singled out during his campaign, Yaros said. OXFORD'S FORECASTThe following chart shows Oxford's new baseline forecast and compares it with a scenario under which the policies of the previous administration are maintained. The following chart shows Oxford's forecast that assumes Trump will fully adopt all of his campaign proposals. This is not the consultancy's baseline forecast because it does not expect such a full-blown Trump scenario will happen. Thumbnail shows the US Capitol. Image by photo by Lucky-photographer.
11-Nov-2024