Energy and chemicals consulting

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on all imports from China provided importers with a new deadline, but not much relief, according to a survey of more than 100 small-to-midsized businesses. Conducted by online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos between 14-17 May, respondents to the survey said the pause has done little to ease their concerns. Small importers remain deeply anxious, are shifting behavior – including changing shipment timing or even considering winding down businesses – and are starting to adapt for the long term. “While some are assessing domestic manufacturing, very few actually have,” Freightos said when noting key takeaways from the survey. “Meanwhile, delays in shipments as a result of tariffs led to significant gaps that importers are struggling to fill,” Freightos said. Other findings include: 31% of respondents are more concerned now than in April; 48% are equally as concerned; 20% less concerned 42% of importers rated the degree to which their business was disrupted as a full 10/10 disruption score, with an average rating of 7.5/10; down from April, when a full 60% of importers rated their degree of disruption as a 10/10 Some respondents said that they were unable to import goods as the 30% tariffs were still too high for small businesses, that expenses shot up leaving importers upside down on some deals, and that they see no way to plan ahead amid what seemed like daily changes and confusion. ADAPTING Respondents said they have found ways to adapt to the changing environment, including: 47% paused shipments and are now increasing imports following the reprieve’s implementation 15% changed suppliers as a result of the changes 7% decreased imports as a whole Since many businesses delayed shipments in April and are now urgently shipping to restock, there is increased potential of bullwhip effects that lead to persistent disruptions regardless of tariff changes going forward, Freightos said. DOMESTIC SOURCING While one of the stated goals of the tariffs was to change US sourcing patterns, changes remain minimal – 30% of businesses are considering it and only 6% have actually done so, the survey showed. The slight shift in sourcing patterns and the pauses in ordering from China likely contributed to reduced traffic at the West Coast ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC), said the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are seeing fewer arrivals than normal. Only 92 container ships arrived in Los Angeles and Long Beach between 1-19 May, whereas 108 would be normal, Louttit said. He also noted about 40 container ship blank sailings that will skip Los Angeles or Long Beach through 5 July. Blank sailings are when an ocean carrier cancels or skips a scheduled port call or region in the middle of a fixed rotation, typically to reduce capacity to support freight rates. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Thumbnail image by Shutterstock

21-May-2025

Additional reporting by Andreas Schroeder, Eduardo Escajadillo and Ghassan Zumot CCS could prove a game-changer for Germany's long-term energy vision Easing of debt brake could stimulate demand in new sectors Debate around resurrecting Nord Stream may be unhelpful now LONDON (ICIS)–Germany’s long-term energy policies are likely to witness critical adjustments as the new government will be looking to strike a balance between climate action, security of supply and economic competitiveness. Speaking to ICIS, Timm Kehler, CEO of Zukunft Gas, Germany’s foremost gas advocacy group, said the new administration remains committed to the country’s 2045 climate neutrality target but the means to achieve the goals are likely to undergo a sea-change. The new government has already announced its decision to lift a long-standing opposition to nuclear production, which is set to ensure the technology is treated on a par with renewable energy in EU legislation. Another game-changer might be the approval of carbon capture storage which would allow Germany to carry out plans to import gas and build gas-fired power plants while being able to transport and export carbon dioxide. OPPORTUNITIES Kehler said there are discussions on lifting the current ban on CCS and aligning with the London Protocol, an international agreement regulating the export of waste including CO2, which will provide clear signals for Germany to use gas while remaining committed to climate targets. This would open the door to a variety of opportunities including securing natural gas supplies on a longer-term basis and continuing to burn the fuel in critical sectors if it is used as feedstock for clean blue hydrogen, with the resulting carbon dioxide stored in CCS. One area that will be under scrutiny will be the decarbonization of heating, the second largest gas consuming sector after industry, which burns around 254TWh (24billion cubic meters) annually. “The decarbonisation of the heating sector is an emotional and complicated issue,” Kehler said. “It was a major breaking point of the previous government and has created headaches in the business because it’s not clear how they would tackle issues. There is a campaign to get rid of gas-fired heating but it’s not clear what that means in practice.” STIMULATING DEMAND Kehler said the ability of the current government to ease the debt brake and pave the way for a multi-billion-euro stimulus for investments in infrastructure, including energy, would implicitly lift demand for natural gas and electricity. Several areas of growth could include the construction sector, where Germany has been falling significantly below targets to expand the housing stock. Another area would be defence. “We see a shift towards investments in defence which could have an impact on the German economy,” he said. “The Coalition Treaty [an agreement signed by Germany’s mainstream centre right and centre left parties CDU/CSU and SPD] focuses on lead markets where the state has influence and which could decarbonise quicker such as green steel and defence technology, which could be a driver for new economic activity,” he added. Kehler said some sectors such as the chemical industry which was severely hit by rising energy costs in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have seen a modest comeback but added that a share of the production that closed down or relocated may be lost for now. IMPORTS Despite the economic difficulties faced by Germany following the energy crisis of 2022, he questioned the viability of a possible regulated industrial price for electricity or gas that would help consumers to reduce costs. He said a more efficient option would be to reduce taxes to a minimum level rather than subsidise grid transmission tariffs to keep costs low. The expected surge in gas production globally could bring additional benefits to industrial consumers and Kehler believes that closer relations with the US, as the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, could be beneficial both economically and politically. He said current discussions on the potential return of Russian gas supplies via the idled Nord Stream 1 or 2 corridors were not particularly helpful. “From the point of view of supply we have lots of idle routes through Ukraine or Yamal [via Belarus and Poland] and before we have a discussion on Nord Stream we should put the focus on those transport routes in case Russian gas comes online. “However, we don’t see that [the return of Russian gas] happening, in fact we see the EU discussion moving in opposite direction [towards banning Russian gas imports],” he added. Kehler admitted that natural gas was very much part of the geopolitical discussions between the US and Russia and related to the future of Ukraine in a post-war scenario.

21-May-2025

Hals Agro became the second company to inject biomethane into Ukraine’s gas grid Second plant in Kyiv to double capacity by end of 2025 amid planned first exports EU certification key to unlocking export potential LONDON (ICIS)– Ukrainian agribusiness “Hals Agro” plans to begin exporting biomethane to the EU and double its production output to 6mcm/year by the end of 2025. Speaking to ICIS Mariia Bielozerskykh, assistant to Hals Agro’s CEO Serhiy Kravchuk said that Ukraine’s gas transmission system served as a conduit for Russian gas flows to Europe, but “today that same infrastructure holds the potential to be repurposed for the delivery of domestically produced green gas to both Ukrainian and European markets.” BIOMETHANE PRODUCTION IN CHERNIHIV In December 2024, Hals Agro became the second Ukrainian company after Vitagro Group to inject biomethane of its own production to the Ukrainian gas transportation system and inject it into Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities. The company’s first plant in Chernihiv, launched in 2023, currently supplies around 3mcm of biomethane made from “manure, sugar beet pulp and corn silage” per year. A second plant, now under construction, in Kyiv, is projected to bring total output to 6mcm/year and “remains on schedule for commissioning by the end of this year, coinciding with our first exports of biomethane to the European Union,” the company confirmed to ICIS. Abundant feedstock supplies generated from cereal cultivation, sugar processing, dairy farming, and livestock allows Hals Agro to turn organic waste into renewable gas and digestate, which in turn returns to the soil as fertilizer. As such, biomethane presents the opportunity to “reduce dependence on imported fuels while fostering a truly circular economy.” SUPPLY SCALABILITY DEPENDS ON EU INTEGRATION Hals Agro’s planned production scale-up coincides with the initial wave of Ukrainian biomethane exports to the EU, as demand for renewable gases rises under the REPowerEU strategy. The company aims to begin exports to the EU by the end of 2025 but as Georgii Geletukha, head of the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine (UABIO) warned last week, further exports hinge on regulatory alignment and export certification. Namely integration into the EU’s Union Database (UDB) for renewable gases. “Certification through the Union Database will enable us to demonstrate the quality and sustainability of our product,” said Bielozerskykh, adding that a “robust and predictable market” must be developed to support Ukraine’s biomethane sector. To that end, “firm, long-term commitments from the EU concerning biomethane imports – together with streamlined certification procedures, cross-border trade mechanisms and reliable guarantees of origin,” are needed to “send a clear market signal and encourage investment,” according to Bielozerskykh. POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION Ukraine faces a record 4–6bcm gas import need this year due to production losses and low reserves. With forward contracts showing no summer softening, domestic biomethane could emerge as a valuable, sustainable alternative over dependence on fossil fuel imports, especially if producers such as Hals Agro can scale up. Looking ahead to Ukrainian reconstruction, Bielozerskykh stressed that “decentralized energy solutions will be essential for rebuilding rural communities and ensuring a reliable energy supply in areas where centralized infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed” by Russian missile attacks. At the Danish-Ukrainian agro-technological business conference in April, Oleh Ryabov, head of renewable energy at Hals Agro, emphasized that expanding biomethane production could shift the focus in Ukraine away from grain exports to food and feed production, turning “traditional agrarian regions [into] energy-profitable centers of a modern energy and agro-industry.” ICIS has expanded its coverage of the emerging biomethane market via the development of the topic page “European biomethane: data, news and analysis”. Click here to access

21-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s overall chemical exports rose by 4.9% year on year to yen (Y) 1.05 trillion in April, even as automobiles and other imports to the US slipped amid US tariffs, official data showed on Wednesday. Exports of medical products, categorized broadly under the chemicals segment, rose by 13.2% year on year to Y119.1 billion, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) said in a statement. Overseas shipments of organic chemicals fell 3.0% year on year to Y177.8 billion in April, while exports of plastic materials rose by 4.9% to Y298 billion. By volume, shipments of plastic materials fell by 2.9% year on year to 451,274 tonnes. Japan’s total exports rose by 2% year on year to Y9.16 trillion in April, while imports slipped by 2.2% to Y9.27 trillion. This resulted in a trade deficit of Y115.8 billion. By destination, total exports to the US – the country's largest export destination – fell by 1.8% year on year in April, while overall shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) were up by 1.9%. Japan's overall exports to China declined by 0.6% year on year in April, and shipments to the EU fell by 5.2% year on year. Sweeping US tariffs, which include a 25% tariff on automobiles, steel and aluminium, and a further 10% baseline tariff rate on most countries, have spooked Japan, an automobile powerhouse. Japan also faces further 24% “reciprocal” tariffs beginning in July unless it can negotiate a trade deal with the US.

21-May-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the fortnight ended on 16 May. NEWS Brazil’s Braskem swings to profit in Q1 but global petchems issues remainBraskem swung to a net profit in the first quarter, year on year, but sales and earnings fell slightly as the global petrochemicals downturn continues, management at the Brazilian polymers major said on Monday. Braskem-Idesa launches its ethane import terminal in MexicoBraskem-Idesa (BI) officially launched the Terminal Quimica Puerto Mexico (TQPM) on Wednesday, according to a notice from the company. Brazil's Unipar Q1 metrics show start of recovery, but further protectionism needed – execsUnipar’s Q1 sales and earnings rose strongly, year on year, despite the prolonged global petrochemicals downturn, weather-related disruptions at its Argentine operations, and lower self-generated energy availability in Brazil due to grid operator restrictions, executives the Brazilian chemicals producer said on Friday. Brazil’s Unigel small earnings save day in Q1; deal with Petrobras imminent ‘at no cost’ Unigel’s Q1 low earnings at Brazilian reais (R) 23 million ($4.0 million) represented, however, a recovery from negative earnings of R29 million in the same quarter of 2024, the Brazilian styrenics and acrylics producer said on Friday. Brazil’s Unigel still planning exit from fertilizers but may mull Petrobras plans for northern facilitiesUnigel could evaluate plans set out by Petrobras for the fertilizers plants in the northern states of Bahia and Sergipe which were leased to the Brazilian chemicals producer until this month, a spokesperson for Unigel said to ICIS. INSIGHT: Mexico’s automotive tariffs raise specter of recession, rest of LatAm more resilientMexico remains the potential largest victim of the change in US trade policy, but practically no country in the world would be spared from an impact, analysts said this week. INSIGHT: Brazil’s Lula visit to China bears fruit with multi-billion dealsBrazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had already got several investment deals in the bag midway through his five-day state visit to China – among others, Envision Group has committed $1.0 billion in Latin America’s largest economy to produce sugarcane-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). MOVES: Mexico’s trade group ANIQ appoints Jose Carlos Pons as presidentMexico's chemicals trade group ANIQ has appointed Jose Carlos Pons as president for the 2025-2027 term amid intensifying pressures from trade disputes with the US and broader regional challenges. Mexico’s chemicals Q1 output down 1.4% amid wider industrial fallsMexico’s chemicals output fell by 1.4% in the first quarter (Q1), year on year, but production of plastics and rubbers rose healthily, the country’s statistical office Inegi said. Argentina’s fall in inflation further boosts Milei’s cause, but sustained success harder to come byArgentina’s annual rate of inflation fell further in April to 47.3%, down from 56% in March, according to the country’s statistical office Indec, in another boost to President Javier Milei drastic economic measures. IFA '25: Brazil Potash pushes to 'lock-in funding this year'Muriate of potash (MOP) mine developer Brazil Potash continues its pursuit of investors at the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) annual conference in Monte Carlo. Colombia’s fiscal woes to grow on lower crude prices, hit Petro’s pre-election spending plansPotentially lower crude oil prices in coming months will dent Colombia’s Treasury ability to collect proceeds from the key income-generator sector, which is dominated by state-owned Ecopetrol.  PRICINGLatAm PP domestic, international prices unchanged on sufficient supply, stable to soft demandDomestic and international polypropylene (PP) prices were unchanged this week across Latin American countries. LatAm PE domestic, international prices steady on stable demand, ample supplyDomestic and international polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as steady this week across the region. LatAm PE domestic prices fall on the back of competitive imports from the USDomestic polyethylene (PE) prices fell across Latin American countries on the back of competitive offers from the US. LatAm PP domestic prices steady to lower on cheaper imports and feedstocksDomestic polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed as steady to lower across Latin American countries on the back of lower feedstock costs and competitive offers from abroad.

19-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 16 May. China, US agree to lower tariffs by 14 May for 90 days The US and China have agreed to de-escalate trade war with sharp cuts on tariffs by 14 May 2025, for an initial period of three months, according to a joint statement issued on Monday by the world’s two biggest economies. US chem shares surge on tariff pause US-listed shares of chemical companies surged on Monday after the US and China agreed to a 90-day pause on the tariffs they imposed on each other since 2 April. INSIGHT: US-China 90-day pause a huge relief for US chemicals, to catalyze strategic rethinking The US-China agreement to substantially take down tariffs during a 90-day pause while negotiations on a trade deal resume is a big relief for US chemicals and plastics producers, especially those with meaningful exports to China. Canada’s Alberta province freezes industrial carbon price, cites US tariffs The government of Canada’s oil-rich Alberta is freezing the province's industrial carbon price at Canadian dollar (C$) 95/tonne ($68/tonne). INSIGHT: US propane poised for China return on sharp cuts in bilateral tariffs High-level trade talks between the US and China on 12 May have yielded significant reduction in the level of newly imposed tariffs by both sides, boding well for operating rates at Chinese propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants. INSIGHT: Brazil’s Lula visit to China bears fruit with multi-billion deals Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had already got several investment deals in the bag midway through his five-day state visit to China – among others, Envision Group has committed $1.0 billion in Latin America’s largest economy to produce sugarcane-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Saudi Aramco, US companies sign deals worth $90 billion Saudi energy and chemical giant Saudi Aramco has signed 34 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) and agreements potentially worth about $90 billion in total, with major US companies. INSIGHT: US auto, metal tariffs persist, threaten chem demand The tariff deal that the US has reached with China did not eliminate the duties on steel, aluminium and auto parts, all of which could lower automobile production and reduce demand for the plastics and chemicals used to make the vehicles. Texas firms expect partial but swift pass through of tariff costs Businesses in the chemical-heavy US state of Texas expect a partial but swift pass through of the costs they expect to bear from the nation's tariffs, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said on Friday.

19-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical exports in April rose 1.4% year on year to Singapore dollar (S$) 1.13 billion ($868.6 million), amid continued overall frontloading activities by exporters, official data showed on 16 May. Petrochemical exports rise 1.4% April NODX rises 12.4% year on year 2025 NODX outlook raised to 2.0-4.0% – UOB April non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew by 12.4% year on year, up from the 5.4% growth in the previous month, Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) said in a statement. Meanwhile, NODX grew by 5.6% in the first four months of 2025. Non-electronic NODX, which includes pharmaceuticals and chemicals, rose by 9.3% year on year in April. NODX to eight of Singapore's top 10 export countries expanded in April 2025, but NODX to China, and Malaysia contracted, EnterpriseSG said. OUTLOOK While a de-escalation of a trade war between the US and China that began on 14 May came as a surprise, risk may now be “asymmetrically skewed” towards higher tariffs following the 90-day expiry on reciprocal tariffs on the rest of Asia, said economists at Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research. Economists revised up Singapore’s full-year 2025 NODX forecast to the range of +2.0-4.0%, from -4.0% previously, noting that the situation remains fluid. “There are likely to be some payback effects from front-loading,” UOB added, noting it could result in an even more protracted downturn in trade activity, possibly in 2026. Focus article by Jonathan Yee

19-May-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at what’s happening to US interest rates as the bond vigilantes return. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

19-May-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 16 May. INSIGHT: Markets rally as US, China de-escalate tariffs stand-offMarkets and chemicals stocks rallied on Monday in the wake of an agreement by the US and China to dramatically cut reciprocal tariff rates for 90 days, signalling the first step in a de-escalation of trade tensions. INSIGHT: Limited improvements in demand for toluene and downstream sectors in EuropeNo significant growth is expected for toluene consumption in the near future, with long markets for certain isocyanates, a disappointing start to the summer driving season and tepid benzene demand stymying near-term growth hopes. INSIGHT: Sale of SABIC assets in Europe could make strategic senseA sale by SABIC of its European petrochemical assets could make strategic sense as the company has production in the Middle East, US and China, which benefit from much lower production costs. Europe butac sellers voice concerns over cheaper Chinese imports amid weak demandButyl acetate (butac) sellers in Europe have grown increasingly concerned about competitively-priced imports from China. As spot buying appetite in the continent is already subdued, domestic sellers are facing intense competition to offload material. European OX market flatlines as construction demand struggles, tariff uncertainty continuesHopes for a pick-up in European orthoxylene (OX) demand for the rest of 2025 are fading among downstream phthalic anhydride (PA) producers, as orders from the key construction sector remain flat year on year in the early stages of the warm season.

19-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Taiwan's ethylene crackers are expected to run at 60-70% of capacity on average this year amid heightened regional competition and weak downstream demand, according to the Petrochemical Industry Association of Taiwan (PIAT). Economic uncertainty, US tariffs and geopolitical risk are pressure points for the industry, the industry body said in a report released at the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025 on 15-16 May in Bangkok. Taiwan’s ethylene capacity is about 4.0 million tonnes; while its propylene capacity is about 3.4 million tonnes, according to PIAT. Despite a potential short-term rebound in prices for Taiwan’s petrochemical sector in 2025, continued capacity extensions in China will “intensify market price competition”, PIAT said. For 2025, it forecasts a 2.7% growth for both supply and demand of ethylene, with a projected 61% surge in exports. Propylene, on the other hand, is expected to post a 2.2% contraction in both supply and demand, with exports expected to more than double. Ethylene (in tonnes) 2024 2025 (estimated) change Supply Production 2,596,243 2,650,000 2.1% Import 228,176 250,000 9.6% Total 2,824,419 2,900,000 2.7% Demand Domestic 2,818,820 2,891,000 2.6% Export 5,599 9,000 60.8% Total 2,824,419 2,900,000 2.7% Year End Capacity (tonnes/year) 4,005,000 4,005,000  Propylene (in tonnes) 2024 2025 (estimated) change Supply Production 2,315,130 2,363,700 2.1% Import 309,100 202,600 -34.5% Total 2,624,230 2,566,300 -2.2% Demand Domestic 2,566,418 2,400,500 -6.5% Export 57,812 165,800 186.8% Total 2,624,230 2,566,300 -2.2% Year End Capacity (tonnes/year) 3,370,500 3,370,500 Source: PIAT China is expected to increase its 2025 ethylene capacity by approximately 7.8 million tonnes, or by 15%, to 60.99 million tonnes. But ethylene derivative consumption is expected to grow at a slower rate of 12.6%, and ethylene demand is expected to rise by just 6%, PIAT said, posing a challenge for neighboring suppliers that have historically relied on exports to China. Taiwanese producers have either reduced operating rates or remained idle over the past three years, while ethylene exports to China dropped to zero last year. “Given weak downstream demand and regional competition, cracker utilization rates are expected to average 60%-70% in 2025,” PIAT said in the report. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s demand for propylene is expected to weaken further due to weak downstream demand, particularly for polypropylene (PP) and epichlorohydrin (ECH). China's ongoing capacity expansion also continues to pressure Taiwanese producers, said the PIAT. Since 2024, Taiwan’s propylene exports to China have been subject to tariffs, posing a challenge for accessing the Chinese market. According to PIAT data, major petrochemical production dropped 2.39%, exports were down by 4.3% and demand fell by 1.1% in 2024 from the previous year. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image At the port city of Keelung, Taiwan on 20 March 2025. (RITCHIE B TONGO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

19-May-2025