News and analysis

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Taiwan's ethylene crackers are expected to run at 60-70% of capacity on average this year amid heightened regional competition and weak downstream demand, according to the Petrochemical Industry Association of Taiwan (PIAT). Economic uncertainty, US tariffs and geopolitical risk are pressure points for the industry, the industry body said in a report released at the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025 on 15-16 May in Bangkok. Taiwan’s ethylene capacity is about 4.0 million tonnes; while its propylene capacity is about 3.4 million tonnes, according to PIAT. Despite a potential short-term rebound in prices for Taiwan’s petrochemical sector in 2025, continued capacity extensions in China will “intensify market price competition”, PIAT said. For 2025, it forecasts a 2.7% growth for both supply and demand of ethylene, with a projected 61% surge in exports. Propylene, on the other hand, is expected to post a 2.2% contraction in both supply and demand, with exports expected to more than double. Ethylene (in tonnes) 2024 2025 (estimated) change Supply Production 2,596,243 2,650,000 2.1% Import 228,176 250,000 9.6% Total 2,824,419 2,900,000 2.7% Demand Domestic 2,818,820 2,891,000 2.6% Export 5,599 9,000 60.8% Total 2,824,419 2,900,000 2.7% Year End Capacity (tonnes/year) 4,005,000 4,005,000  Propylene (in tonnes) 2024 2025 (estimated) change Supply Production 2,315,130 2,363,700 2.1% Import 309,100 202,600 -34.5% Total 2,624,230 2,566,300 -2.2% Demand Domestic 2,566,418 2,400,500 -6.5% Export 57,812 165,800 186.8% Total 2,624,230 2,566,300 -2.2% Year End Capacity (tonnes/year) 3,370,500 3,370,500 Source: PIAT China is expected to increase its 2025 ethylene capacity by approximately 7.8 million tonnes, or by 15%, to 60.99 million tonnes. But ethylene derivative consumption is expected to grow at a slower rate of 12.6%, and ethylene demand is expected to rise by just 6%, PIAT said, posing a challenge for neighboring suppliers that have historically relied on exports to China. Taiwanese producers have either reduced operating rates or remained idle over the past three years, while ethylene exports to China dropped to zero last year. “Given weak downstream demand and regional competition, cracker utilization rates are expected to average 60%-70% in 2025,” PIAT said in the report. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s demand for propylene is expected to weaken further due to weak downstream demand, particularly for polypropylene (PP) and epichlorohydrin (ECH). China's ongoing capacity expansion also continues to pressure Taiwanese producers, said the PIAT. Since 2024, Taiwan’s propylene exports to China have been subject to tariffs, posing a challenge for accessing the Chinese market. According to PIAT data, major petrochemical production dropped 2.39%, exports were down by 4.3% and demand fell by 1.1% in 2024 from the previous year. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image At the port city of Keelung, Taiwan on 20 March 2025. (RITCHIE B TONGO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

19-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 16 May 2025. APIC '25: INSIGHT: Asia petrochemical industry facing “unprecedented crisis” BANGKOK (ICIS)–Asia's petrochemical industry leaders are navigating a complex global landscape marked by unprecedented challenges, with a renewed focus on sustainability, innovation, and regional collaboration, industry leaders said on Friday. APIC '25: INSIGHT: Thai petrochemical sector contends with low-cost overseas rivals BANGKOK (ICIS)–External factors continue to pressure Thailand’s petrochemical industry, driven by new capacity additions from low-cost producers, particularly those in the Middle East, according to a report by the Federation of Thai Industries, Petrochemical Industry Club (FTIPC). INSIGHT: US propane poised for China return on sharp cuts in bilateral tariffs SINGAPORE (ICIS)–High-level trade talks between the US and China on 12 May have yielded significant reduction in the level of newly imposed tariffs by both sides, boding well for operating rates at Chinese propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants. ICIS China April petrochemical price index slumps on tariff war SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ICIS China Petrochemical Price Index declined by an average of 5.6% in April from the previous month as the trade war with the US raged on and weighed heavily on Chinese exports and domestic demand China, US agree to lower tariffs by 14 May for 90 days SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US and China have agreed to de-escalate trade war with sharp cuts on tariffs by 14 May 2025, for an initial period of three months, according to a joint statement issued on Monday by the world’s two biggest economies. Saudi Aramco Q1 net income falls 4.6% on high cost, low crude prices SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Aramco's first-quarter net income fell by 4.6% year on year to Saudi riyal (SR) 97.5 billion ($26 billion), weighed down by a combination of higher cost and lower oil prices.

19-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Asia-US container rates surged this week as trade between the US and China is expected to surge amid the 90-pause on reciprocal tariffs between the two nations. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos showed minimal increases in the low-single digits, but rates from supply chain advisors Drewry showed significant increases of 19% from Shanghai to New York and 16% from Shanghai to Los Angeles, as shown in the following chart. Following the latest US–China trade developments, Drewry expects an increase in Transpacific spot rates in the coming week due to shortage in capacity. Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said the 90-day pause is expected to lead to a surge of activity, where spot rates will peak and then flatten as carriers redeploy capacity to match demand over the next two to four weeks. “The US-China announcement on the temporary lowering of tariffs fired the starting gun for shippers to rush as many imports as they can during the 90-day window of opportunity,” Sand said. “There is no time to waste for these shippers and the rush of cargo will put upward pressure on spot rates on Transpacific trades.” But Sand said that a deeper dive into data shows shippers paying prices towards the market mid-high for rates agreed post the US-China announcement, while legacy agreements struck before 12 May will continue to keep a lid on the bubbling market averages for a short time. The following chart shows Xeneta’s rates from North China to the US Gulf. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, also expects to see a surge in imports. “We are likely to see a significant demand rebound in the near term as shippers replenish inventories that may have started to run down in the past month and as many Chinese manufacturers have high levels of finished goods already ready to ship,” Levine said. With an August deadline for the possible return of higher tariff levels, it is also likely that the near-term ocean demand rebound will mark the start of more frontloading, Levine said. “If so, it would also mark the early start of this year’s peak season, which could end earlier than usual as well for the same reasons,” Levine said. TANKER RATES STABLE TO LOWER US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were stable to lower this week with rates for parcels from the US Gulf (USG) to Asia dropping once again. Rates from the USG to Asia ticked lower both for smaller parcels and larger parcels. Overall, market activity is weaker for most destinations to Asian ports, prompting owners to reposition tonnage to bridge the gap between southeast Asia and northern destinations. Overall, along this route there is very little quoted, aside from the usual contract of affreightment (COA) volumes there has not been much activity, besides the usual methanol and monoethylene glycol (MEG) cargoes. From the USG to Brazil, the market COA volumes remain steady as there were some inquiries and much less space is available for May for part cargoes, as COA nominations appear completed for the month. According to one ship broker, “owners are reporting very limited parcel space available”. The usual mix of caustic soda and methanol seems to be most visibly seen quoted in the market. For the USG to Rotterdam, there are some bits of cargo space still available for May. Most of the outsider vessels that were on berth have already sailed, and only the regulars remain at this time as they push tonnage availability which is all but full. However, there were steadier quotes styrene, methanol and caustic seen in the market this week for June loadings. Freight rates are now expected to remain steady for the time being. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

16-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Businesses in the chemical-heavy US state of Texas expect a partial but swift pass through of the costs they expect to bear from the nation's tariffs, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said on Friday. The Dallas bank is one of 12 regional branches of the nation's central bank, and it based its findings on the Texas Outlook Surveys it conducted for the first quarter. More than half of Texas businesses said they expect to pass through costs within a month of the tariff proposals and announcements, as shown in the following chart. Passing through costs was the most common response to the tariffs among Texas businesses, especially among manufactures, as shown in the following chart. Chemical companies discussed similar strategies during their recent earnings conference calls. Passing through all of the costs of the tariffs is unlikely because Texas business are pessimistic about the outlook of the economy, the Dallas bank said. The new order indices turned negative in April for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) and a composite of the surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve. Services slowed according to the Texas Business Outlook Survey and other surveys from the regional banks of the Federal Reserve. Although tariff pass throughs will be partial, Texas businesses still expect they will happen, and that should increase inflation, according to the Dallas bank. Thumbnail Photo: The flag of the US state of Texas, which is home to many refineries and petrochemical plants. (By Westlight)

16-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Asia benzene prices saw an uptrend early week. However, by Friday, these gains were erased by a drop in crude prices. Market gets boost from US-China trade breakthrough Early week increases of over $50/tonne eroded by oil drop at week's close Caution over sustainability of uptrend amid incoming European cargoes In this chemical podcast, Asia benzene editor Angeline Soh discusses the situation and some insights from the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025, held in Bangkok, Thailand.

16-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Over the past week, Asia ethylene players arrived in Bangkok, Thailand, to reflect on the industry’s drift towards oversupply, and probe opportunities for continued survival as supply-demand balance changes enter the horizon. Feedstock cost competitiveness, ethane conversion considerations on the table Consolidation a complex question, but looking more necessary for survival New SE Asia supply may cause supply-demand balance changes for Indonesia In this chemical podcast, ICIS editor Josh Quah discusses some insights gleaned from the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025, held in Bangkok, Thailand.

16-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Northeast Asia ethylene and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets have seen a slower-than-expected tempo of spot talks for June cargoes, with the main driver of uncertainty being unclear start-up timelines from new ethylene derivative expansions, particularly from Chinese PVC. Around 1.5 million tonnes/year of new PVC supply may face start-up postponements Import discussions on ethylene slow pending clearer demand picture PVC demand clouded by India-Pakistan tensions amid pre-monsoon season In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Jonathan Chou and Josh Quah discuss their findings from the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025, held in Bangkok, Thailand.

16-May-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–European acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and acrylonitrile (ACN) markets are facing ongoing demand weakness in 2025, as well as uncertainty in global supply and the potential impact expected from US tariffs. In this latest podcast, Europe ABS market editor Stephanie Wix and markets editor for the Europe ACN report, Nazif Nazmul, share the latest developments and expectations ahead. Demand expected to remain stable at a weak level through 2025 Macroeconomic challenges persist, players monitor US tariff situation Impact of ongoing antidumping investigation on ABS imports from South Korea, Taiwan ABS is the largest-volume engineering thermoplastic resin and is used in automobiles, electronics and recreational products. ACN is used in the production of synthetic fibers for clothing and home furnishings, engineering plastics and elastomers.

16-May-2025

BARCELONA (ICIS)–The agreement to pause steep tariffs between the US and China for 90 days allows normal business to resume, but chemicals CEOs still need to plan for structural changes to global trade. US-China tariff pause allows trade to resume between nations Will benefit chemical companies around the world But business leaders still need to plan for a more protectionist world Trade resumption could see huge spike in demand, snarling up logistics SABIC reportedly appoints banks to prepare for sale of European assets Sale could make strategic sense from a cost perspective But sale would reduce footprint in the EU with its 450 million citizens Upgrade and restart of SABIC’s Wilton cracker reportedly delayed In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS insight editor Tom Brown. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here. Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

16-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s tariff on US LPG has been cut from 125% to 10% for 90 days. ICIS analysts Shihao Zhou, Wang Yan, and Lilian Ren discuss what this means for US cargo flows, China's propane import prices and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) operation, and why market players remain cautious despite the relief. US cargoes regain competitiveness in the China market PDH run rates show signs of recovery CFR China propane prices may soften, but PDH demand offers support Market remains cautious amid temporary policy Related article: Our April analysis on the tariff hike

16-May-2025