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ICIS Supply and Demand Database

Identify opportunities, mitigate risk and validate your growth strategies

An end-to-end view of supply and demand across multiple markets

Optimise sales planning, production and investment with a transparent view of the Chemicals supply chain showing capacity, balanced and integrated between upstream and downstream, as far ahead as 2050. Access supply, demand and trade flow data updated daily, with monthly and quarterly round-ups, for over 100 commodities in 175 countries.

Gain a clear understanding of the competitive landscape, with current and planned production capability segmented by plant, company, country or region. Import, export and consumption volumes are combined with short-term forecasts, margin analytics, pricing, plant cost evaluations and disruption tracking to help you stay one step ahead.

Identify new business opportunities with up-to-date information on plant ownership and technology, on a subsidiary and affiliate basis, from ICIS’ unrivalled network of chemicals experts embedded in key global markets.

Why use ICIS Supply and Demand Database?

Increase profitability and maximise ROI

Safeguard or increase margins and make better-informed purchasing decisions, with accurate and complete data on market dynamics and competitor behaviour.

Plan ahead with confidence

Discern long-term trends built on historical trade flow  data going back to 1978, and respond swiftly to market conditions if they change in unforeseen ways.

Optimise new business

Understand demand for your product, with a clear picture of competitors’ current and planned production capacity.

Validate targets with independent data

Support your investment decisions with ICIS’ reliable market data and insight.

Create agile purchasing strategies

Track changes in capacity, production and trade flows to keep ahead of market trends, and revise purchasing strategy accordingly.

Maximise efficiency

Save time strategy planning with all your market drivers, built on the latest outlook for supply and demand, visible in one place.

Quantify value

Understand value chain dynamics, with integrated analysis of upstream / downstream supply and demand.

Mitigate risk

Anticipate and minimise exposure to changes in imports, exports, supply and demand with forecasts and independent analysis.

ICIS News

Americas top stories: weekly summary

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 6 September. Brazil’s manufacturing sharply slows in August on higher costs, lower demand Brazil’s manufacturing PMI index for August sharply slowed down from July on the back of output falling for the first time in several months due to subdued sales, and elevated cost pressures, analysts at S&P Global said on Monday. INSIGHT: Brazil’s natgas overhaul to benefit chems but crude players push indispensable The Brazilian government’s decree changing natural gas regulations could potentially overhaul the market and, along the way, benefit the chemicals industry by providing it with cheaper energy and eventually with ethane-based feedstocks. INSIGHT: LatAm chemicals needs to be as plural as society to reach full sales potential For years, Latin American petrochemicals companies have been trying to increase diversity within to better represent the consumers they want to sell their products to – without much success. Canada government wobbles amid fallout from rail labor dispute Canada’s Liberal-led minority government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is paying a heavy price for its decision last month to end the labor dispute at freight railroads Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) through binding arbitration. SHIPPING: Union, USWC ports at impasse as strike deadline looms; container rates keep falling A strike by union dock workers at East Coast and US Gulf ports seems more likely after International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) Wage Scale Delegates voted unanimously at the end of their two-day meeting to support leadership’s intentions to walk off the job if a new labor deal is not agreed to when the contract expires on 30 September.

09-Sep-2024

Europe top stories: weekly summary

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 6 September. EU chemicals production gradually firming, short of recovery levels – Cefic Chemicals production in the EU has continued to firm through 2024, but weak demand is keeping output growth below recovery levels, with energy prices still substantially above US levels in the region, trade body Cefic said. Europe jet fuel prices hit new lows on supply overhang, crude softness Average European jet kerosene spot prices for cargoes fell 6% week-on-week while barge prices dropped 5% from the week prior as supply overhang and lack of demand continues to haunt the market. Europe markets slump on US, China demand worries, commodity shocks Europe chemicals shares and public markets slumped on Wednesday in the wake of sell-offs in Asia and the US on the back of growth fears and a crude oil sell-off. Europe August acetic acid contracts roll over Acetic acid contract pricing for August was assessed at a rollover in Europe amid balanced supply and seasonally low demand. Global spot index up on gains in NE Asia, NW Europe The global spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) was up for the first time in four weeks in the week ending 30 August, on the back of increases in northeast Asia and northwest Europe.

09-Sep-2024

Asia top stories – weekly summary

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 6 September 2024. Strong regional currencies weigh on Asia recycling exports The weakening of the US dollar against major currencies in Asia since August will continue to strain exports of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET), recycled polyethylene (R-PE), and recycled polypropylene (R-PP). Asia refined glycerine market stagnates on stand-off between buyers and sellers Asia’s refined glycerine market may likely continue to remain tepid in the near term due to a persistent stand-off between buyers and sellers. UPDATE: Oil falls by $1/bbl, Asia petrochemical shares tumble on global growth worries Asian petrochemical shares slumped on Wednesday as regional bourses tracked Wall Street’s rout overnight on poor data from both the US and China, with crude prices shedding more than $1/bbl in late Asian trade. At the close of trade in Tokyo, Mitsui Chemicals fell 3.07% and Sumitomo Chemical tumbled by more than 4%, with the Nikkei 225 index down 4.24% at 37,047.61. Asian PX hits fresh year low, levels last seen in December 2022 Asian paraxylene (PX) prices hit a fresh year low, amid a lack of buyers' confidence and overnight losses seen in upstream crude markets. INSIGHT: China-Canada trade frictions may affect MEG trade flows Trade frictions between China and Canada have intensified recently following the Canadian government’s decision to impose tariffs on imports of electric vehicles (EVs) as well as steel and aluminum from China starting 1 October. INSIGHT: Qatar to emerge as PVC exporter next year when $279 million plant comes online Qatar will become an exporter of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) as early as next year when commercial operations start at its first plant, because its 350,000 tonne/year capacity will be more than 10 times the state's annual imports. Asia titanium dioxide Sept key drivers to be stock levels, exchange rates While the titanium dioxide (TiO2) spot price in Asia is likely to find support with the start of the traditional demand season in September, a large-scale revival now seems unlikely.

09-Sep-2024

SHIPPING: Union, USWC ports at impasse as strike deadline looms; container rates keep falling

HOUSTON (ICIS)–A strike by union dock workers at East Coast and US Gulf ports seems more likely after International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) Wage Scale Delegates voted unanimously at the end of their two-day meeting to support leadership’s intentions to walk off the job if a new labor deal is not agreed to when the contract expires on 30 September. The ports, represented by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), contend that the offer on the table “demonstrates a willingness by our members to reach a new deal before the end of this month,” and that it remains committed to reaching a new deal before the current agreement expires. Last week, both parties submitted documents with the US Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS) informing the agency of a dispute between the parties, as required by law. The looming work stoppage would have major impacts on the US economy, and the National Retail Federation (NRF) has urged both sides to resume negotiations. Union delegates from the 13 port areas included in the current agreement received a strike mobilization plan from ILA Executive Vice President Dennis A Daggett during the two-day meeting that will be implemented if a new agreement is not reached in time. USMX said in a statement posted to its website that “the ILA continues to strongly signal it has already made the decision to call a strike and we hope the ILA will reopen dialog and share its current contract demands so we can work together on a new deal, as we have done successfully for nearly 50 years”. USMX said its offer includes industry-leading wage increases, retention of the existing technology language in the current agreement, which already formalizes that there will be no fully automated terminals and no implementation of semi-automated equipment or technology/automation without agreement by both parties to workforce protections and staffing levels, increases to retirement account contributions, higher starting wages and continuation of premier health care coverage. The ILA is seeking better pay, including container royalty. Market participants have said a strike by dockworkers would not have much of an impact on liquid chemical tankers. One reason is that most terminals that handle liquid chemical tankers are privately owned and do not necessarily use union labor. Also, tankers do not require as much labor as container or dry cargo vessels, which must be loaded and unloaded with cranes and require labor for forklifts and trucks. But more liquid chemicals are being moved on container ships in isotanks. CONTAINER RATES Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US fell again this week and global average rates continued to fall at a faster rate, according to multiple analysts. Supply chain advisors Drewry in its World Container Index showed average rates down by 8%, as shown in the following chart. The decrease in rates from China to both US coasts is shown in the following chart from Drewry. Despite the looming threat of a port strike in the US, transpacific Eastbound freight rates have seen a slight dip this week, Drewry said. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said the looming strike may be pushing more volumes to the West Coast, supporting some rebound in rates since mid-August, but prices are nonetheless 15% below their high for the year reached in mid-July. “Some of this rate decline is likely also due to capacity increases, including from opportunistic carriers who launched transpacific services when rates were spiking earlier in the summer,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID CHEM TANKER RATES STABLE Rates for chemical tankers ex-US Gulf were unchanged this week on trade lanes assessed by ICIS. Rates firmed on the USG to Mediterranean, and to Mexico’s East Coast. The firming is due to a lack of available tonnage amid more inquiries and fixtures along these trade lanes. However, rates to both Asia and India are facing downward pressure, especially for stainless steel vessels. The downward pressure is likely to hold into next week. Overall, throughout September the spot market should remain soft as there is open partial space in the US Gulf and as most owners continue to depend on contract tonnage. Bunker fuels in the USG were slightly lower following the weaker energy complex. PANAMA CANAL MAINTENANCE The Panama Canal will be conducting maintenance from 10-25 September on the center wall culvert of the Gatun Locks but is not expected to limit transits, according to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA). Although the culvert maintenance will increase the time required to fill and empty the chamber in both lanes at Gatun Locks, this should not affect significantly the capacity of the Panamax Locks to warrant a booking condition change. Since the culvert outage is at Gatun Locks, Neopanamax vessels should not be affected as result of this maintenance. The PCA added an additional booking slot effective 1 September, bringing the total number of passages allowed per day to 36, almost at par with the 36-38 transits/day seen before a drought forced the PCA to limit transit for the first time in its history. There are 10 slots for Neopanamax vessels, 20 for supers and six for regular vessels. The better conditions at the canal are likely to improve transit times for vessels traveling between the US Gulf and Asia, as well as between Europe and countries on the west coast of Latin America. This should benefit chemical markets that move product between regions. Wait times for non-booked southbound vessels ready for transit are 2.6 days for northbound vessels and 0.4 days for southbound vessels on 6 September, according to the PCA vessel tracker. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Thumbnail image shows a container ship carrying cargo on its way to Antwerp Harbour. (Olivier Hoslet/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock).

06-Sep-2024

EU chemicals production gradually firming, short of recovery levels – Cefic

LONDON (ICIS)–Chemicals production in the EU has continued to firm through 2024, but weak demand is keeping output growth below recovery levels, with energy prices still substantially above US levels in the region, trade body Cefic said. Sector output increased for the fourth consecutive quarter in the April-June period, increasing 1.2% compared to the first three months of the year and 4.3% from the same period in 2023. The second quarter last year may stand as the low point for chemicals production going back to before the pandemic, Cefic added, but the 4.3% annual improvement for the same period this year does not yet represent a pronounced recovery. Second-quarter 2023 productivity had plummeted over 12% compared to the same period in 2022. “Given the lack [of] demand growth, the European chemical industry production volumes are still far from the pre-COVID levels,” the group said. Despite gradually firming output, demand remains depressed, and capacity utilisation declined slightly during the quarter, to 75.2%, with that trend continuing into July. Despite capacity rates substantially below the long-term average of 81%, the longstanding destocking trend in the sector may have come to an end in March, with July standing as the fourth consecutive month of increasing stocks. The sector outperformed general industrial productivity in the first six months of 2024, Cefic said, which saw a 3.6% decline year on year. This is having a knock-on effect on chemical company order books, while energy prices continued to be 4.7 times higher than in the US in July. Gas prices in the first half of the year were 70% above the 2014-2019 average in Europe, Cefic added. Thumbnail photo: Part of BASF's Ludwigshafen, Germany, site on the banks of the River Rhine (Source: Lilly/imageBROKER/Shutterstock)

06-Sep-2024

BLOG: The China story is consistent even in higher-value polycarbonate

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: If this wasn’t so critically important, I’d be getting bored by now in telling the same old story. As today’s blog confirms it is the same story in the engineering or higher-value polymer polycarbonate (PC), as it is many other in chemicals and polymers. In 1992, China, with a 22% share of the global population accounted for 3% of global demand. By the end of this year, we expect China to be responsible for 47% of global demand from an 18% share of the global population. Here we go again: Events in China (demographics, debts, its geopolitical relationship with the West and the rise in China’s chemicals and polymers capacity) mean that today’s chemicals world is very different from the past. Are you still not convinced? Then consider these ICIS PC data points: During the1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle, China’s demand growth averaged 17% per in year. In 2022-2030 we are forecasting this will drop to 3%. In 1992-2023, China accounted for 76% of global net imports of PC among the regions and countries that imported more than they exported. China's percentage shares of global net imports have been falling since 2021, the year of the Evergrande Moment. The ICIS base case predicts China’s net PC imports will average just 460,000 tonnes a year in 2024-2030 compared with 1.1 million tonnes during the peak years of 2010-2023. But 460,000 tonnes assume an operating rate of just 47% compared with the long-term average of 68%. Raise operating rates closer to 68% and you end up with China as a net exporter. There is, however, a scenario where China struggles to directly export chemicals and polymers where it is not already an established player. This could apply to PC. In 2023, 83% of Taiwan’s PC production, 41% of Thailand’s production, 34% of South Korea’s production and 26% of Japan’s production was dependent on exports to China. A valid question therefore seems to be: What should these countries do next? What would it take to return to the very healthy average global PC operating rate of 83% in1992-2023? Assuming no change to our base case assumption on production (the same as demand), global capacity would have to fall by an average 138,000 tonnes per year versus our forecast that capacity will instead grow by 153,000 tonnes each year. What might be the answer for producers in countries such as South Korea? Becoming more differentiated than their Chinese competitors as they emerge as winners in the fourth industrial revolution: Sustainability. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

06-Sep-2024

Strong regional currencies weigh on Asia recycling exports

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The weakening of the US dollar against major currencies in Asia since August will continue to strain exports of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET), recycled polyethylene (R-PE), and recycled polypropylene (R-PP). Fewer September deals expected as buyers resist changes in currency conversion Importers of recycling feedstock benefit from weakening of US dollar Asian recyclers wary of interest cuts by the US Fed Asian recyclers were largely relieved to see downward correction on container freight costs in August, but the ease in transportation costs were countered by foreign exchange fluctuations. Exporters of recycled polymers from key markets such as Japan, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have struggled to close deals for September loading. Buyers were resisting the strengthening of major Asian currencies against the US dollar, resulting in an impasse in spot negotiations. A strong currency makes exports less competitive as buyers continue to use the US dollar for transactions in both term and spot commitments. As of 02:05 GMT, the Thai baht and the Indonesian rupiah registered the biggest month-on-month gains against the US dollar among four currencies of major Asian exporters. Exchange rates versus $1 Currencies 6 Sept (As of 02:05 GMT) % appreciation (month on month) Japanese yen (Y) 143.29 2.5 Thai baht (Bt) 33.56 5.8 Indonesian rupiah (Rp) 15,389.10 4.6 Malaysian ringgit (M$) 4.34 3.4 Source: www.xe.com Recyclers, on the other hand, have been unwilling to lower their prices amid high production costs and eroded margins. Due to this, majority of recyclers in the region expect September spot negotiations to be lower than that of August. “Our buyers [of R-PET flakes] within Asia were strongly resisting higher prices and they prefer to halt negotiations than to shoulder the foreign exchange fluctuations,” a Thailand-based R-PET producer said. A few buyers hedging their exposure to foreign exchange volatility were still able to secure spot quantities, but majority of buyers are not hedged. On the other hand, Asian recyclers which purchase US dollar-denominated feedstock benefited from the exchange rate fluctuations. Asian recyclers expect export volumes to remain dampened and are concerned about interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. As regional recyclers continue to position themselves as net exporters of R-PET, R-PE and R-PP, currency fluctuations and decisions by the Federal Reserve retain great implications to overall trade from Asia. Focus article by Arianne Perez Thumbnail image: A 10,000-Japanese yen note and $1 US dollar notes, 3 July 2024. (Taidgh Barron/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock)

06-Sep-2024

Canada government wobbles amid fallout from rail labor dispute

TORONTO (ICIS)–Canada’s Liberal-led minority government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is paying a heavy price for its decision last month to end the labor dispute at freight railroads Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) through binding arbitration. The left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) on Thursday confirmed that it cancelled a “supply and confidence agreement” from 2022 under which it supported the Liberals, which hold only a minority of parliamentary seats. The NDP is close to labor trade unions and had warned Trudeau repeatedly not to intervene in the dispute. In a televised press conference on Thursday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said the government’s intervention added to “mounting evidence” that the Liberals were “too beholden to corporate interests”, making it impossible for the NDP to continue supporting them. Singh alleged the railroads had “colluded” to set up a scenario in which both companies were in a labor dispute at the same time, and that they had negotiated in “bad faith”. Instead of allowing the dispute to be settled through the collective bargaining process, the government, by ordering binding arbitration, awarded the companies for their conduct, he said. After a four-day freight rail shutdown at both CN and CPKC last month, the government directed a labor tribunal to end the shutdown and settle the dispute through binding arbitration. Freight rail service resumed on 26 August. From now on, the NDP’s voting in parliament would be case-by-case, based on what the party deems best for workers and families, Singh said. Voting non-confidence would be "on the table” and an early election was now more likely, he said. If the NDP joins the Conservatives and other opposition parties in voting against the government on the next confidence measure, the government will fall and an election has to be held. Seats in parliament (total: 338): Liberals Conservatives Bloc Quebecois NDP Others 154 119 32 24 9 Political commentators said that the NDP cancelled the agreement as it needed to distance itself from the Liberals, who after nine years in government are unpopular and are far behind the Conservatives in opinion polls. Singh rejected suggestions that by ending the agreement with the Liberals he was opening the door to a Conservative government. The NDP would be running against both Liberals and Conservatives, he said. Trudeau would “always cave to corporate greed”, and the Conservatives, if elected, would be worse, he said. The Conservative Party, which is supportive of Canada's oil and gas industry, has pledged that if elected it would immediately abolish the consumer carbon tax implemented by the Liberals. There is a possibility that the Liberals may now look to opposition party Bloc Quebecois (BQ) for support – the BQ is advocating for Quebec to secede from Canada and become an independent nation. Rail labor union Teamster Canada welcomed the NDP’s decision to stop supporting the Liberals. The union has filed court challenges against the government decision to end the labor dispute through binding arbitration. Meanwhile, total Canadian freight rail traffic – intermodal and railcars – fell 5.8% year on year for the week ended 31 August. Industry officials have said it may take weeks for supply chains to normalize after last month’s shutdown. The following table by the AAR shows total Canadian freight rail data for the week ended 31 August and for the first 35 weeks of 2024: In Canada's chemical industry, producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail. Thumbnail photo of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meeting students at college in Ontario in May; photo source: Government of Canada

05-Sep-2024

Moldovan gas TSO under sharp criticism over tariff hike

European traders asked to pay difference for capacity booked prior to a sharp tariff increase The increase could wipe out transit on Trans-Balkan route Ukrainian TSO GTSOU says the latest increase could lead to a revenue reduction for Moldova LONDON (ICIS)–Traders have lashed out at the Moldovan gas grid operator Vestmoldtransgaz (VMTG) for being asked to pay higher transmission tariffs for capacity booked prior to the price hike on 1 September. At least ten companies active regionally and local traders who booked monthly or quarterly capacity for gas sourced in southern Europe and transiting Moldova to Ukrainian storage have been asked to pay the difference between the old and the new tariffs. Traders say the increase is wiping out the competitiveness of one of the most attractive regional transit routes and will block Moldova and Ukraine’s access to non-Russian gas supplies in southern Europe. An international trader told ICIS that beyond hurting the economic viability of the route the decision would also put a major burden on Moldovan consumers, who will have to face ever soaring bills. Another trader said the increase would hit the entire region. He questioned why VMTG increased tariffs by 50% since it hadn’t made any recent investments and the transmission assets it now operates have long been amortised. MOLDOVAN LOSSES In a letter sent to the Moldovan regulator, the ministry of energy, VMTG and the Energy Community and seen by ICIS, the Ukrainian gas grid operator GTSOU said reverse flows along the Trans-Balkan route linking southern Europe to Ukraine had ‘significantly facilitated cross-border trading opportunities in the region.’ VMTG, a company majority-owned by the Romanian grid operator, Transgaz, took over Moldova’s transmission operations in September 2023 following a government and regulator push to divest transmission from incumbent Moldovagaz. The transfer of operations via the lease agreement was pushed through after Gazprom, Moldovagaz’ majority owner, repeatedly requested the delay of transmission unbundling. Immediately after the switchover, VMTG requested a tariff increase, which was approved by the Moldovan regulator. This year VMTG has requested a further rise, with entry tariffs increasing from Moldovan Lei 20.9/MWh/h (€1.08/MWh/h) to Moldovan Lei 30.7/MWh/h (€1.59/MWh/h) on 1 September. Exit tariffs have also risen from Moldovan Lei 22.3/MWh/h to Moldovan Lei 35.5/MWh/h (€1.85/MWh/h). GTSOU said in the letter that the sharp tariff increase requested by VMTG combined with an increase in transmission tariffs in neighbouring transit country Romania has led to utilisation rates for the route dropping from 83% in 2023, prior to VMTG’s takeover, to 10% in 2024. The Ukrainian operator calculated that prior to the first VMTG tariff transit costs to ship gas from Greece to the Grebenyky on the border with Ukraine were around €3.00/MWh. Following the first rise, the overall cost rose by 67% to €5.00/MWh, while now it has increased to €6.7/MWh, with Moldova being the most expensive transit country in the region and possibly across Europe, traders say. The Ukrainian grid operator said the latest increase would ‘worsen’ the situation and lead to a revenue reduction for Moldova. A source close to GTSOU said VMTG could alleviate the situation by introducing comparatively cheaper short-haul tariffs bridging cross-border points. ANRE, Transgaz and VMTG did not reply to questions by publication.

05-Sep-2024

Europe markets slump on US, China demand worries, commodity shocks

LONDON (ICIS)–Europe chemicals shares and public markets slumped on Wednesday in the wake of sell-offs in Asia and the US on the back of growth fears and a crude oil sell-off. Stock exchanges in Asia and the US crashed on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for the second time in less than a month after another market rout, with weak economic data from the US and China once more ringing alarm bells. BEARISH US INDICATORS As was the case during the early August rout, bearish economic data from the US stoked market fears of a slowdown in the country, which has proven the most resilient large mature economy during the slump of the last few years. The US manufacturing sector contraction deepened in August, according to purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data collected by S&P Global, showing a drop from 49.6 in July to 47.9, with future indicators pointing to potential further deterioration ahead. “There is a worrying narrowing of the pockets of strength,” said ING chief international economist James Knightley, commenting o the numbers. “Just 22% of industry is experiencing rising orders and just 17% are seeing rising production. Historically, this weakness in output and orders points to a sharp slowing in GDP growth,” he added. The August figures are the latest warning signal on economic momentum in the country, following an unexpected decline in manufactured goods orders in June, according to the US Census Bureau in early August, the most recent data available. As was the case in last month’s market crash, tech stock slumps led the US declines on Tuesday.  While sector declines last month had been driven by growing scepticism over the potential of artificial intelligence, Nvidia saw one of the sharpest falls declines this month. The chipmaker reportedly received a government subpoena as part of an antitrust investigation wiped over 9% off its market value, a loss estimated at $279 billion. ASIA SLUMPS With global microchip supply chains strongly connected to Asia, the Nvidia sell-off also ripple through the region’s technology stocks, with core players including Samsung, Tokyo Electro and Taiwan Semiconductor suffering sharp losses by Tuesday’s close. Economic data for China released late last week showed the first decline in export orders in eight months, while the manufacturing sector I the country remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month in August, and house prices seeing the slowest pace of growth in 2024 so far. Industrial indicators for Europe, where manufacturing has been on recessionary footing for over two years, new order volumes are continuing to decline, potentially signalling a period in autumn where manufacturing demand is shrinking in US, China and the eurozone. OIL SUPPLY LENGTHENSCrude oil prices also slumped, falling to the lowest level in  to the lowest levels of the year, on the back of expectations that the OPEC+ coalition will begin to unwind their 2.2 million bbl/day production cuts next month. Expectations that Libya will begin to restart crude production and exports after a political agreement was reached. These two factors point to a substantial increase in supply despite ongoing sluggish demand, driving Brent and WTI futures down to $74.19/bbl and $70.79/bbl respectively in midday trading on 4 September. The US Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices closed down 1.51%, 2.12% and 3.26% respectively on Tuesday evening, while Japan’s Nikkei 224 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bourses concluded trading down 4.24% and 1.10% on Wednesday. In Europe, Germany’s DAX index was down 0.84% in midday Wednesday trading, while France’s CAC 40 and the STOXX Europe 50 index had lost 0.97% and 1.19% respectively. Aggregate chemicals sector losses were more modest, with the STOXX 600 index for the sector down 0.15% as of 13:29 BST. EMS-Chemie and Umicore had suffered the sharpest declines as of that time, dropping 1.49% and 1.31%. Linde and Yara shares both dropped 0.97% compared to Tuesday’s close, while Brenntag, Bayer and OCI saw falls of over 0.50%. Focus article by Tom Brown. Thumbnail photo: Traders in Seoul, South Korea, on 4 September, The South Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) closed down 3.15% on the day. Source: Jeon Heon-Kyun/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

04-Sep-2024

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