Image Description

ICIS Supply and Demand Database

Identify opportunities, mitigate risk and validate your growth strategies

An end-to-end view of supply and demand across multiple markets

Optimise sales planning, production and investment with a transparent view of the Chemicals supply chain showing capacity, balanced and integrated between upstream and downstream, as far ahead as 2050. Access supply, demand and trade flow data updated daily, with monthly and quarterly round-ups, for over 100 commodities in 175 countries.

Gain a clear understanding of the competitive landscape, with current and planned production capability segmented by plant, company, country or region. Import, export and consumption volumes are combined with short-term forecasts, margin analytics, pricing, plant cost evaluations and disruption tracking to help you stay one step ahead.

Identify new business opportunities with up-to-date information on plant ownership and technology, on a subsidiary and affiliate basis, from ICIS’ unrivalled network of chemicals experts embedded in key global markets.

Why use ICIS Supply and Demand Database?

Increase profitability and maximise ROI

Safeguard or increase margins and make better-informed purchasing decisions, with accurate and complete data on market dynamics and competitor behaviour.

Plan ahead with confidence

Discern long-term trends built on historical trade flow  data going back to 1978, and respond swiftly to market conditions if they change in unforeseen ways.

Optimise new business

Understand demand for your product, with a clear picture of competitors’ current and planned production capacity.

Validate targets with independent data

Support your investment decisions with ICIS’ reliable market data and insight.

Create agile purchasing strategies

Track changes in capacity, production and trade flows to keep ahead of market trends, and revise purchasing strategy accordingly.

Maximise efficiency

Save time strategy planning with all your market drivers, built on the latest outlook for supply and demand, visible in one place.

Quantify value

Understand value chain dynamics, with integrated analysis of upstream / downstream supply and demand.

Mitigate risk

Anticipate and minimise exposure to changes in imports, exports, supply and demand with forecasts and independent analysis.

ICIS News

ANALYST VIEW: Plummeting Japanese LNG storage lifts demand prospects for shoulder season

Reversal of hitherto strong power demand trend anticipated in April Nuclear availability forecast higher by double-digit percentage points in Q2 Coal-to-gas switching to have more limited effect compared to last yearSINGAPORE (ICIS)–A cold end to winter has pushed LNG stocks below average, indicating restocking demand of about 0.9m tonnes of LNG during the shoulder season. This is assuming power utilities aim to reach a similar inventory as last year before the cooling season starts in late June. Weak short-term demand will likely ease the restocking efforts as warmer weather in April sets in and nuclear availability remains strong. WEATHER OUTLOOK While the weather impact recedes into the shoulder season, current data still shows power consumption spiking on heating demand for the fifth consecutive week as of 28 March. However, the bullish trend should quickly reverse, as above-average temperatures are forecast to take hold before the end of the month. POWER DEMAND With March ’24 turning into one of the coldest in recent years, power demand has remained significantly higher compared both to last year and the 2018-22 average for more than four weeks. Demand in the week ended 24 March was up 17% year on year and 5% above the 2018-22 average. A similar trend was seen in the first half of the current week but should shift before the weekend. STORAGE LNG storage for power generation has been falling for four straight weeks, reaching 1.52m tonnes on 24 March. This is down by 0.8m tonnes from 26 March 2023 and 0.1m tonnes from 27 March 2022. It is also well below the 2018-22 average for the end of March: 2.14m tonnes. NUCLEAR Kansai Electric’s 1180MW Ohi 3 and 870MW Takahama 4 is returning from regular maintenance on 7 and 26 April. The latter outage was extended by three weeks because of damage to the steam generator. In Kyushu, the 1180MW Genkai 4 went offline for maintenance on 27 March and is scheduled to resume on 3 June. Nuclear generation is forecast higher by over 10% year on year through Q2 ’24, but only 2% higher in July and 8% lower in August. This is assuming a mid-month startup of Chugoku Electric’s 820MW Shimane 2, which remains unconfirmed. Japanese utility Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) applied for regulator approval to load nuclear fuel into reactor No. 7 at its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa power station starting 15 April, the company said in a 28 March news release. The company also requires a nod from the Niigata prefecture. COAL Coal plant availability is lower year on year for a sixth consecutive month and is expected to remain weak in April. JERA’s 1070MW Taketoyo 5 is still offline with no view on restart date after a fire incident occurred on 31 January. However, coal-fired generation is forecast slightly higher year on year, reflecting the unusually narrow price spread between Japanese LNG and coal imports in Q2 ’23, which favoured gas-fired generation for its greater thermal efficiency.

28-Mar-2024

AFPM ’24: Lubricant additives may recover in 2024 after severe destocking – LANXESS exec

SAN ANTONIO (ICIS)–Lubricant additives demand may recover this year following major destocking in 2023, said the head of LANXESS’ business. “What we hear from our customer end-use segments is that in most cases, destocking is over and inventories are at reasonably low levels. The general theme that’s playing out is that customers are manufacturing to the extent of what is potential real demand, and not restocking,” said Neelanjan Banerjee, senior vice president of Lubricant Additives at LANXESS. ICIS interviewed Banerjee on the sidelines of the International Petrochemical Conference (IPC), hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). “We saw that play out very strongly in Q1 in many areas, such as automotive engine oils, where there was the biggest collapse last year. So that’s been a decent comeback,” he added. However, given the volatility from geopolitical tensions, high inflation and high interest rates impacting consumer behavior, how that is going to play out in the coming quarters has to be very closely watched, he pointed out. One area of growth is in calcium sulfonate greases which are increasingly replacing lithium greases because of lithium’s extreme price volatility over the past two years tied to electric vehicles (EVs). LANXESS’ calcium sulfonate greases are used in passenger vehicle, heavy duty vehicle and marine applications. SURGE IN INDUSTRIAL LUBRICANTSThe company is also seeing higher demand for sustainable industrial oil additives that also offer high performance, he said. “This is driving innovation in the industry by suppliers who have the ability to conduct R&D and offer the molecules that meet the highest safety standards – favorable HSC profile, low VOC emissions and low carbon footprint,” said Banerjee. “We also expect there to be consolidation in the industry for players that cannot meet these requirements,” he added. In the US, increased investment from the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the CHIPS Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) has spurred increased demand for industrial lubricants, said the executive. This includes additives and packages for metal-working fluids, hydraulic fluids, gear oils, compressor oils, greases, as well as increasing demand for formulated calcium sulfonate complex greases. “As a result, we are increasing our resources dedicated to providing solutions to industrial customers and applications in the Americas,” including sales, technology and potentially laboratory support in the US, said Banerjee. EV TRANSITION IMPACTThe EV transition is expected to happen but more slowly than initially anticipated in the US, with 16.3% of total US light vehicle sales being EVs in 2023 – up from 12.9% in 2022, he noted. However, EVs comprised just 1.2% of the US car parc (number of vehicles on the road) in 2022, he added. In the internal combustion engine (ICE) market, lubricant sales are primarily driven by the replenishment and maintenance market, and this continues to dominate, the executive pointed out. EV fluids will more likely be filled one time for the life of the vehicle and primarily sold to OEMs, and it will be years before the impact of EV fluid volumes becomes significant, Banerjee said. The industry is working to understand and develop specifications for a variety of fluids required by EVs such as driveline fluids, hybrid engine oils, specialty greases and immersion cooling fluids, and LANXESS has active solution development under way for all these EV fluids. Regulations and legislation could drive EV adoption higher, but the trajectory is highly uncertain as automakers and consumers may not be ready, he said. “I still feel ICE technology will be there for years to come… Regulations are a topic that has to play out with governments worldwide,” said Banerjee. Challenges for the EV transition include price volatility in battery materials, retraining of the automotive workforce, and overall high prices for EVs, he noted. “People were very excited about the possibilities, but the harsh reality today is that even with all the new regulations in play, the cars are getting heavier and more expensive,” said Banerjee. “The world has to get that right – it’s not that easy,” he added. COOLING FOR DATA CENTERSAn emerging growth end market is data centers which enable cloud, AI, autonomous driving and cryptocurrency mining capabilities. “The lubricants industry has been busy positioning their basestocks as suitable immersion cooling fluids for both EVs and data centers,” said Banrjee, who noted that LANXESS has developed two families of cooling fluids based on synthetic basestocks and formulated with antioxidants, yellow metal inhibitors and antifoams. “We believe a sizeable market will develop for these cooling fluids in the next few years,” he added. Unlike in EVs, direct immersion cooling of data centers is being applied today. LANXESS is developing both single-phase and two-phase immersion cooling solutions. “Once you dunk a computer into a liquid, materials compatibility is a design requirement, and one key trend is also to move away from fluorinated hydrocarbon coolants due to PFAS health effects,” said Banerjee. Interview article by Joseph Chang Front page picture source: LANXESS   Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC took place on 24-26 March in San Antonio, Texas.

27-Mar-2024

TOPIC PAGE: Sustainability in the fertilizers industry

Updated on 27 March. On this topic page, we gather the latest news, analysis and resources, to help you to keep track of developments in the area of sustainability in the fertilizers industry. LATEST NEWS HEADLINES New urea application rules to be implemented in England from 1 April By Deepika Thapliyal 27-Mar-24 LONDON (ICIS)–In England, famers will only be able to apply solid or liquid urea that is treated with an inhibitor from 1 April, according to new regulations from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) that come into force next month. UPM Biochemicals launches new range of bio-based plant stimulants By Sylvia Traganida 27-Mar-24 LONDON (ICIS)–UPM Biochemicals has launched a new range of bio-based plant stimulants which is an alternative to fossil raw materials-based products, the Finnish paper and renewable chemicals firm said on Tuesday. Mabanaft signs letter of intent for supply of green ammonia from Canada By Sylvia Traganida 19-Mar-24 LONDON (ICIS)–Germany-headquartered energy firm Mabanaft has signed a letter of intent (LOI) with US-based Pattern Energy for the supply of green ammonia to Mabanaft. Yara Growth Ventures invests in electrolysis technology for low-cost renewable hydrogen By Sylvia Traganida 08-Mar-24 LONDON (ICIS)–Norwegian fertilizer major Yara has invested in Danish electrolysis technology company Dynelectro through its corporate venture capital team Yara Growth Ventures. Yara signs agreement with Acme Cleantech subsidiary on green ammonia By Sylvia Traganida 01-Mar-24 LONDON (ICIS)–Norwegian fertilizer major Yara has signed an agreement with GHC SAOC for supply of ammonia with reduced carbon emissions from Acme to Yara on a long-term basis. Idemitsu to join US clean ammonia project By Stefan Baumgarten 27-Feb-24 LONDON (ICIS)–Idemitsu Kosan has agreed to join a 1.2 million tonne/year clean ammonia project that Mitsubishi Corp and Proman plan to develop at Lake Charles, Louisiana, US, it said on Tuesday. Germany’s Heraeus invests in Japanese ammonia tech company By Stefan Baumgarten 22-Feb-24 LONDON (ICIS)–German technology group Heraeus has invested an undisclosed amount in Tsubame BHB, a Japanese company that has developed a precious metal-based technology for decentralized ammonia production. Malaysia’s PCG, Sarawak Petchem agree to study low-carbon ammonia and urea plant By Nurluqman Suratman 21-Feb-24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s PETRONAS Chemicals Group (PCG) and methanol producer Sarawak Petchem on Wednesday signed an agreement for a joint feasibility study aimed at establishing a low-carbon ammonia and urea production facility in Bintulu, Sarawak. Egypt’s Helwan signs agreement to produce black urea By Deepika Thapliyal 20-Feb-24 LONDON (ICIS)–In Egypt, Helwan has signed an agreement with SML-INNO UK Ltd to set up the world's first vertical integrated unit to produce black urea, with a capacity of 130,000 tonnes annually, the company said today. EU eases climate proposals after widespread farmer protests By Chris Vlachopoulos 07-Feb-24 LONDON (ICIS)–European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Tuesday that the EU has agreed to ease key demands in its climate proposal plans, following intense protests from farmers. Tecnimont awarded engineering contract for Portugal green hydrogen, ammonia plant By Graeme Paterson 05-Feb-24 LONDON (ICIS)–Tecnimont has been awarded an engineering contract to develop an integrated green hydrogen and green ammonia plant at Sines, Portugal, its parent company Maire said. EU CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM (CBAM) EXPLAINED What is it? The risk of carbon leakage frustrates the EU’s efforts to meet climate objectives. It occurs when companies transfer production to countries that are less strict on emissions, or when EU products are replaced by more carbon-intensive imports. This new mechanism would counteract this risk by putting a carbon price on imports of certain goods from outside of the EU. How will it work? EU importers will buy carbon certificates corresponding to the carbon price that would have been paid, had the goods been produced under the EU's carbon pricing rules. Conversely, once a non-EU producer can show that they have already paid a price for the carbon used in the production of the imported goods, the corresponding cost can be fully deducted for the EU importer. This will help reduce the risk of carbon leakage by encouraging producers in non-EU countries to make their production processes greener. A reporting system will apply from 2023 with the objective of facilitating a smooth roll out and to facilitate dialogue with non-EU countries. Importers will start paying a financial adjustment in 2026. How is the fertilizer industry affected? The fertilizer industry is one of the sectors to fall under the CBAM. The more energy-intensive nitrogen fertilizers will be affected most in the sector by the mechanism. NEW UREA APPLICATION NORMS IN ENGLAND The UK’s Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) has imposed new regulations on urea application in England. Famers will only be able to apply solid or liquid urea that is treated with an inhibitor from 1 April. The move is aimed to reduce ammonia emissions, and would increase costs for farmers by an estimated £40/tonne. The new rules apply to any fertilizer that contains 1% or more of urea nitrogen, with applications of solid urea or liquid (urea ammonium nitrate) fertilizer from 1 April having to include a urease inhibitor Untreated solid urea or liquid UAN fertilizer can be applied between 15 January to 31 March each year. Untreated liquid UAN fertiliser can be applied after 1 April if agronomic justification is provided by a certified fertilizers advisor, mentioning ammonia losses will be at or below the level of when a urease inhibitor is included. Foliar urea applications targeting the crop, using normal spray nozzles do not require a urease inhibitor. The implementation of the Defra regulations was delayed by two years due to higher fertilizer prices and lack of supply following the covid pandemic and the Ukraine war. PREVIOUS  NEWS HEADLINES EU proposes relaxation in policy following farmer protests Biden Administration invests $207m in domestic fertilizer and clean energy endeavours Brazil’s state of Ceara, Bp sign MoU for green hydrogen site  Atome Energy in talks with buyers for green fertilizer from Paraguay unit Sweden's Cinis targets Asia potash market with Itochu partnership Helwan selects Eurotecnica's Euromel G5 technology for new melamine facility in Egypt India’s Adani Group plans $24bn green energy park; RIL to commission giga complex INPEX and LSB pick technology for US ammonia project Bayer partners with energy firms on hydrogen cluster in Germany S Korean group picks KBR tech for Malaysian green ammonia project Abu Qir signs MoU for green ammonia project in Egypt Yara aims to launch first container ship to run off clean ammonia India’s Odisha state approves green hydrogen, ammonia, methanol projects ADM announces launch of regenerative agriculture program in Brazil Fertiglobe completes first renewable ammonia shipment with carbon certification Allied Green Ammonia picks Topsoe’s tech for Australia project Germany’s VNG looks to secure offtake from Norwegian low carbon ammonia plant Gentari enters into agreement with AM Green to invest into a green ammonia delivery platform ITOCHU Corporation, Orascom Construction sign MOU for development of ammonia bunkering in Suez Canal India developing port infrastructure for green hydrogen exports S Korea, Saudi Arabia firms sign 46 pacts, includes blue ammonia project INSIGHT: CBAM reporting begins, fertilizer exporters to EU challenged to account for carbon KBR to supply green ammonia tech to Madoqua Power2X site in Portugal Germany’s SOM to build green hydrogen, ammonia facility in Brazil’s Piaui state US ADM and Syngenta sign MoU to collaborate on low carbon oilseeds to meet biofuel demand Tecnicas Reunidas, Allied Green Ammonia to build green hydrogen and green ammonia plant in Australia Australian fertilizer producer Orica accelerates climate change targets Nestle, Cargill and CCm Technologies launch joint UK trial on sustainable fertilizer EnBW acquires stake in planned Norwegian ammonia plant  Yara Germany signs agreement for decarbonisation of cereal cultivation using green fertilizers Hyphen, ITOCHU ink MoU to explore potential Namibia hydrogen collaboration  INSIGHT: BASF grapples with demand trough, slow road back SABIC AN ships low-carbon urea to New Zealand US Cargill and John Deere collaborate to enable revenue for farmers adopting sustainability Canada’s Lucent Bio announces approval of biodegradable nutrient delivery patent Aker, Statkraft’s 10-year PPA to spur European renewable ammonia push further BASF, Yara Clean Ammonia to evaluate low-carbon blue ammonia production facility in US Gulf Coast Yara Clean Ammonia, Cepsa to launch clean hydrogen maritime corridor EU details CBAM reporting obligations Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden exports its first low-carbon blue ammonia shipments to China US Bunge and Nutrien Ag announce alliance to support sustainable farming practices Maire subsidiary Stamicarbon wins US green ammonia engineering contract India’s IFFCO launches liquid nano-DAP fertilizer EU Parliament backs CBAM, emissions trading measures OCP granted €100m green loan to build solar plants at Morocco facilities EU unveils plans to tackle greenwashing India’s IFFCO and CIL to manufacture nano DAP for three years USDA awards Ostara funds to boost sustainable phosphate fertilizer output Canadian prime minister confirms fertilizer emission goal is voluntary US fertilizers industry increases carbon capture in 2021 – TFI Indian president calls for reduction in chemical fertilizer use IFFCO plans to export nano urea to 25 countries Amman selects Elessent Clean Technologies for Indonesia sulphuric acid plant Lotte Chemical forms clean ammonia consultative body with RWE and Mitsubishi Corporation Global 2020-2021 specialty fertilizer demand growth led by north America, Asia BASF and Cargill extend enzymes business and distribution to US Saudi Aramco awards sulphur facilities overhaul contract to Technip India sets green hydrogen targets for shipping, oil & gas, fertilizer sectors Germany misses climate target despite lower energy consumption TFI reacts to US Congress passing the Water Resources Development ActHelm becomes a shareholder in UK bio-fertilizer company Unium Bioscience Yara inks deal to deliver fossil-free green fertilizers to Argentina Canadian firms plan fuel cell generator pilot using green ammonia Deepak Fertilizers awards contract to reduce emissions, increase productivity Saudi Aramco launches $1.5bn sustainability fund to support net zero ambition CF Industries and ExxonMobil plan CCS project in Louisiana Canada’s plan to cut fertilizer emissions is voluntary – minister Canada’s fertilizer emission goal raises food production concerns Uniper, Vesta to cooperate on renewable ammonia site in the Netherlands German Uniper to work with Japan’s JERA on US clean ammonia projects ADNOC ships first cargo of low-carbon ammonia to Germany US Mosaic and BioConsortia expand collaboration to microbial biostimulant IMO deems Mediterranean Sea area for sulphur oxides emissions control Canada's Soilgenic launches new enhanced efficiency fertilizers technology for retail Austria's Borealis aims to produce 1.8m tonnes/year of circular products by 2030 European Parliament rejects proposed carbon market reform IFA ’22: southern Africa looks to bio-fertilizer as cheaper, sustainable option IFA '22: Indian farmers will struggle to embrace specialty fertilizers – producer Canadian Nutrien plans to build world’s largest clean ammonia facility in Louisiana Japan's JGC Holdings awards green ammonia plant contract to KBR Bayer to partner with Ginkgo to produce sustainable fertilizers Australia Orica and H2U Group partner on Gladstone green ammonia project Canada sets tax credit of up to 60% for carbon capture projects UK delays urea restrictions to support farmers as fertilizer costs at record high EU states agree to back carbon border tax Yara to develop novel green fertilizer from recycled nutrients USDA announces plans for $250m grant programme to support American-made fertilizer Canada seeks guidance to achieve fertilizer emissions target Fertilizer titan Pupuk Indonesia develops hydrogen/blue ammonia business India launches green hydrogen/ammonia policy, targets exports Canada AmmPower to develop green hydrogen and ammonia facility in Louisiana US DOE awards grant to project to recover rare earth elements from phosphate production Fertiglobe, Masdar, Engie to develop green hydrogen for ammonia production Czech Republic’s Spolana enhances granular AS production India’s Reliance to invest $80bn in green energy projects Yara, Sweden’s Lantmannen aim to commercialise green ammonia by 2023 Novatek and Uniper target Russia to Germany blue-ammonia supply chain Fertz giant Yara goes green with electrification of Norwegian factoryCanada Arianne Phosphate exploring use of phosphate for hydrogen technology FAO and IFA renew MoU to promote sustainable fertilizer use Sumitomo Chemical, Yara to explore clean ammonia collaboration Sri Lanka revokes ban on imports Tokyo scientists convert bioplastic into nitrogen fertilizer Aramco plans Saudi green hydrogen, ammonia project China announces action plan for carbon peaking & neutrality Saudi Aramco targets net zero emissions from operations by 2050 Fertiglobe goes green with Red Sea zero-carbon ammonia pro Australian fertilizer major Incitec Pivot teams up for green ammonia study INTERVIEW: BASF to scale up new decarbonisation tech in second half of decade – CEO India asks fertilizer companies to speed up production of nano DAP Japan's Itochu set to receive first cargo of blue ammonia for fertilizer use Norway's Yara acquires recycled fertilizers maker Ecolan Bayer Funds US start-up aims to cut nitrogen fertilizer use by 30% BP: Green ammonia production in Australia feasible, but needs huge investment Origin and MOL explore shipping green ammonia from Australia India’s IFFCO seeks to export nano urea fertilizer Sri Lanka reinstates ban on import of chemical fertilizers Nutrien to cut greenhouse gas emissions 30% by 2030 RESOURCES IFA – Fertilizers and climate change  TFI – Sustainability report 

27-Mar-2024

AFPM ’24: Europe must take action to stop deindustrialization – Huntsman CEO

SAN ANTONIO (ICIS)–The EU must take action on industrial policy instead of just talking about it, to stem the tide of deindustrialization, the CEO of Huntsman said. While the US is boosting its manufacturing base with programs such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as imperfect as it may be, the EU has yet to implement any meaningful policies to support manufacturing, according to Huntsman chief Peter Huntsman. “One thing the IRA does is transmit to the rest of the world is that the US is open for business, or trying to be open for business… whereas Europe is sending a sign that it’s really not open for business,” he said. Huntsman spoke at a breakfast meeting at the International Petrochemical Conference, hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). Recalling recent conversations with EU prime ministers, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and industry CEOs, he expressed disappointment at the outcome from these meetings. “All I heard during the entire meeting was, ‘We need to talk about it’,” said Huntsman. ‘BEYOND THE POINT OF TALKING’“It’s beyond the point of talking. When you start to see the rapid deindustrialization with plants shutting down”, it is not readily reversible, he added. Companies that decide to invest in chemical projects elsewhere are not going to suddenly come back to Europe if it ever regains competitiveness, he said. “You’re not going to get companies coming back to Europe. You’re just [trying] to stop the bleeding and that’s what Europe should be focused on right now – and I don’t believe that is happening, unfortunately,” said Huntsman. The US needs a strong Europe – economically, militarily and diplomatically, he pointed out. “The world is at a loss when Europe is meandering in the dark, unsure what to do with its industrial policy,” said Huntsman. “I’m not here bashing Europe – I’m here begging Europe… I’ve spent almost half my time in Europe, especially in the last 12 months. I’ve met more politicians and have spent more time lobbying in Europe than I have in my entire career combined,” he added. UNREALISTIC ENERGY EXPECTATIONSPlans to rapidly transition away from hydrocarbons and towards renewables are not well thought out, he said. Huntsman supports the Antwerp Declaration for a European Industrial Deal but said it needed stronger policy around hydrocarbons and the use of oil and gas for industrial development. Powering Europe’s cement, steel, electric vehicle (EV) and chemical industries – just those industries along – by 2050 would require around 500,000 onshore wind turbines on an area the size of Spain, or solar panels covering an area the size of Ireland, or 836 nuclear plants, he said, citing a study by Accenture. “Do policies take this into account?” Huntsman asked. The International Energy Agency (IEA)’s projections on rapidly declining oil, natural gas and coal supply through 2050 for Europe as well as the rest of the world are completely unrealistic, he said. “The problem is that people are making policy around this” and companies believe they will be penalized if they don’t meet these targets, said Huntsman. “This is going back to the Stone Age, and nobody seems to care. They are making policy around this,” he added. The fall in Europe’s energy consumption in the past several years and the more recent fall in costs are not so much due to conservation or sound policy but to deindustrialization, he contends. “That is not an incentive to invest. It’s quite the opposite,” said Huntsman. Deindustrialization is being reflected in the stock prices of European chemical stocks, which are trading at around a 15% discount to their US-based counterparts on an EV/EBITDA (enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) basis, the CEO pointed out. Europe also has to determine if it will fight more effectively in trade against dumping from other countries – not just China, as well as how it implements carbon taxes on imports, he said. ENERGY AND REGULATORY PRESSURESHuntsman said he is “comfortable” on the position of its assets in Europe today but wants to see how energy and industrial policy plays out in the next year or so. While European energy prices have subsided recently, they are still high and subject to the vicissitudes of international trade until Europe decides to secure its own energy future, he said. And on the regulatory front, a third-party study commission by Huntsman found that EU regulations will cost the company an additional €75-80m over the next 8-10 years, nearly half of its payroll in the region. “To offset that, we either have to raise prices, which makes Europe that much less competitive, or cut the workforce,” said Huntsman. As this is simply unsustainable for companies like Huntsman, Europe has to decide if they want industry or not. Offshoring supply chains and thus also CO2 emissions, will only worsen competitiveness as well as harm the environment, he said. “A lot more is being said than done. I’m not terribly optimistic there will be any [shift in] industrial policy in Europe. But perhaps the upcoming election will do something,” he added, referring to the EU Parliamentary elections in June. Europe will land on its feet – it’s just a matter of how much it will cost before it does so, he noted. “We’ve got to be able to work together as an industry. We’ve got to be able to speak more loudly and advocate for what we all know to be true, and mot worry about being cancelled,” said Huntsman. Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC took place on 24-26 March in San Antonio, Texas.

27-Mar-2024

PODCAST: A tale of two olefins – diverging trends in Asia's olefins markets

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's ethylene (C2) market will see northeast Asia supply in Q2  remain ample on the back of relatively high run rates at northeast Asian crackers. Similarly, propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units in the region are also expected to sustain current run rates for Q2. In this podcast, ICIS market editors Josh Quah  and Julia Tan discuss Asia's olefins flows, with a forward view on the Q2 market. NE Asia C2 supply ample, SE Asia C2 supply tight NE Asia and SE Asia C3 supply ample Deep-sea movements as arbitrage windows open

27-Mar-2024

PRC '24: PODCAST ICIS recycled plastics experts highlight key topics, trends for week ahead

GRAPEVINE (ICIS)–The Plastics Recycling Conference is underway in Grapevine, Texas, and Senior Market Editor Emily Friedman and Senior Analyst Andrea Bassetti break down the key topics among discussions and presentations at the show: US R-PET market experiencing a divergence from historic trend, as well as stark regional differences Chemical recycling capacities still set to grow through 2028 Recycling markets facing virgin, import price pressure and sluggish demand in H1 2024 To learn more, ICIS recycled plastics experts Emily Friedman and Andrea Bassetti will be giving a presentation "Insights from the Analysts" on Wednesday, 27 March at 10:00AM CST. The Plastics Recycling Conference (PRC) takes place on 25-27 March in Grapevine, Texas. Please reach out on LinkedIn to connect with us at the show!

26-Mar-2024

CDI Economic Summary: US Fed expects to stay on course with three rate cuts

NEW YORK (ICIS)–The US Federal Reserve is sticking to its forecast of three quarter-point rate cuts this year and is now planning to soon slow the pace of its quantitative tightening (QT) program of draining liquidity from the financial system to the tune of $95 billion a month – all good news for the overall economy and the chemical sector. Economists are becoming more sanguine on the outlook with upward revisions to 2024 GDP forecasts, though inflation expectations are also ticking a bit higher. ICIS projects US GDP growth of 2.2% for 2024, down from 2.5% in 2023 – a year in which every economist forecast a recession. However, growth is expected to slow from the surprisingly strong 3.3% pace in Q4, bottoming out at 1.2% in Q2 and Q3. US GDP forecasts – a soft landing Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, ICIS forecasts Inflation is easing, but the road will be bumpy with services pricing remaining sticky and goods prices potentially slowing in their pace of decline. On the services side, rents have been stubbornly high. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February was up 3.2% year on year with core CPI (excluding food and energy) up 3.8% – still too high for rate cuts. Forecasts for the timing of the first cut are coalescing around the summer with June a distinct possibility. US retail sales came in weaker than expected, rising 0.6% month on month in February and up just 1.5% from a year ago. Notable year-on-year gains were in ecommerce (+6.4%) and bars and restaurants (+6.3%). Declining categories were led by furniture and home furnishing stores (-10.1%), building material and garden equipment dealers (-6.1%) and gas stations (-4.5%). The labor market remains healthy with the unemployment rate at 3.9% and wage gains continuing. While the US economy overall has proven resilient, the manufacturing sector is still in recession. The ISM US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in February fell to 47.8 from 49.1 in January, its 16th consecutive month in contraction (below 50). On the other hand, the Services PMI has seen 14 consecutive months of expansion. The chemical industry is off to a tepid start to 2024. Dow reiterated its forecast of flat Q1 sales versus a better-than-expected Q4 that was bereft of the usual seasonal destocking, as inventories had already been drawn down. Indeed destocking in the chemical sector is now largely done. LyondellBasell sees “modest improvement” in Q1 with solid demand for polyethylene (PE) domestically and in the export market. The outlook for two key end markets is brightening somewhat. ICIS projects housing starts to rise from 1.42 million in 2023 to 1.47 million in 2024 and 1.50 million in 2025. Light vehicle sales are expected to rise from 15.5 million units in 2023 to 15.9 million in 2024 and 16.4 million in 2025 – still below pre-pandemic levels of 17.0 million in 2019. US housing starts in February jumped 10.7% to a 1.52 million pace – up 5.9% year on year, with January figures also revised higher. Light vehicle sales rebounded 6.0% to a 15.81 million unit pace in February. Meanwhile, geopolitical turmoil and disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea will continue to be a headwind for the global economy. With major elections worldwide this year, including in the US, the chemical industry is on watch for policy shifts in regulations as well as trade. The reshoring/deglobalization trend is on the ascent – hand in hand with protectionism as global competition intensifies.

26-Mar-2024

Saudi Aramco eyes further chemical investments in China with local partners

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has a "vitally important" place in Saudi Aramco's global investment strategy, with the energy giant actively developing additional investment opportunities with its Chinese partners in the chemicals sector, Aramco president and CEO Amin Nasser said. The global oil major’s strategic goals in chemicals are “well-aligned” with China’s, he said in a keynote speech at the China Development Forum in Beijing on 25 March, noting that the country “is already a powerhouse representing 40% of global [chemical] sales”. Aramco, through its chemicals arm SABIC, is planning to increase its liquids-to-chemicals throughput to 4m barrels per day by 2030, Nasser said. Saudi Aramco accelerated its push into China’s refining and petrochemical sector last year with strategic investments that are aligned with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 diversification goals. This includes the 10% stake acquisition in Rongsheng Petrochemical Co for $3.4bn last year. Saudi Aramco, together with Chinese partners Norinco Group and Panjin Xincheng Industrial Group (PXIG), is also building a 300,000 bbl/day refining and ethylene-based steam cracking complex in Panjin City, in northeast China's Liaoning province at a cost of around $12bn. The Liaoning project is expected to come online in 2026. “We are also pleased that SABIC’s partnership in Fujian is on-track to commence construction of a major chemicals facility at an estimated cost of $6.4 billion,” Nasser said. The Fujian complex will include a mixed-feed steam cracker with up to 1.8m tonne/year ethylene (C2) capacity and various downstream units producing ethylene glycols (EG), polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polycarbonate (PC), among other products. SABIC’s other major investments in China include three compounding plants in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chongqing; a joint venture with Sinopec in Tianjin; a technology centre in Shanghai and a customer centre office in Guangzhou. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Demand for lower greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) materials – especially advanced composites and non-metallics in general – is growing rapidly, Nasser noted. Aramco’s research efforts in developing GHG materials are consistent with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s stance that sustainable development is the “golden key” for future success, he said. “We agree with China’s pragmatic and prudent approach to energy transition…I believe there are wide-ranging opportunities to jointly develop advanced GHG emission reduction technologies.” China has distinct strengths in renewables and critical materials, while Aramco and Saudi Arabia have a clear interest in solar, wind, hydrogen, and electro fuels, Nasser said. “These areas have great long-term potential, and combining our strengths could match our ambitions,” he added. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

26-Mar-2024

AFPM ’24: INSIGHT: UN global plastics treaty a ‘historic opportunity’ for chemical industry

SAN ANTONIO (ICIS)–The UN global plastics treaty has the potential to be a watershed moment for the chemical industry, changing the way waste is managed and valued, and catalyzing investment in ecosystems to foster greater circularity. This was the key theme at the International Petrochemical Conference (IPC) hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). With negotiations and work to take place through 2024, the UN is set to approve a legally binding agreement in early 2025 for 175 nations to curb plastic pollution – an end goal the AFPM supports wholeheartedly. Three key pillars the industry deems critical to addressing plastic waste are waste management, recycling and financing. FOCUS ON WASTE MANAGEMENT “These negotiations present a historic opportunity to improve outcomes and effectively address mismanaged plastic. First, we must improve our waste collection and management systems. 3 billion people around the world lack access to even the most basic waste management,” said Chet Thompson, CEO of the AFPM. “This has to change. If we’re going to solve this problem, we need to create waste management systems that are accountable – where we can track where the money’s going – and that actually work for the regions they serve,” he added. “This is the problem we need to solve. There has to be basic waste management infrastructure in place. And then you move to more circular solutions,” said Kerri Reyer, director of Plastics Life Cycle at ExxonMobil, recalling a trip to villages in Indonesia lacking such systems. CLARITY ON RECYCLING Recycling must be a key part of the solution, with acceptance and clarity for mechanical and especially chemical (or advanced) recycling. By being technology neutral, each waste stream can be matched with the most effective recycling technology to ultimately offer customers a wider range of circular products, said the CEO of a global plastics producer. The most effective way to end pollution is to increase circularity, he said. The US plastics recycling rate is just 9% – a level the AFPM’s Thomson calls “unacceptably low” for a country with its capabilities and resources. This compares to around 40% in the EU. A UN global plastics treaty with clarity on the issue could “supercharge” investment in plastics recycling, said Rob Benedict, AFPM vice president of Petrochemicals and Midstream. Clearly there is massive investment required to develop waste management systems – a figure in the trillions of dollars according to one executive – as well as recycling infrastructure and capacities. Who will pay for this is the tricky part. EPR AS A FINANCING MECHANISM Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) systems as well as mandates on recycling content can be essential components in financing. EPR is an important tool to fund the build-out of recycling infrastructure and boost recycling rates, said the industry CEO, pointing to Europe’s high recycling rate because of effective EPR systems. EPR is a policy approach where producers take responsibility in managing their products at the end of their useful life. The responsibility can be financial or operational, or a combination of both. The AFPM has not specifically endorsed EPR, but is exploring this approach through the UN negotiations. “If people are going down the route of EPR, there are certain parameters we would want to see such as ringfencing the money so that it goes towards waste management and is not used for everything,” said Rob Benedict, AFPM vice president of Petrochemicals and Midstream. And in terms of creating value for the waste, “the easiest, most effective way to do that is to have recycled content mandates… That is a very significant policy enabler the treaty must embrace,” said Tracey Campbell, EVP of sustainability and corporate affairs at LyondellBasell. “As an industry, we cannot collect enough plastic waste to meet customer demand for recycled content. The market is there, so we have to be able to stand up the infrastructure to enable the market to work,” said Greg Skelton, head of Americas government relations at SABIC. GLOBAL FEEDSTOCK ECOSYSTEM BUILT ON TRADE And thus comes the issue of trade, involving the movement of plastic waste, will be a key component to boosting circularity and reducing waste. Language in the current UN ‘zero draft’ is punitive to trade, and the Basel Convention put restrictions on the movement of plastic waste, Skelton pointed out. “If you think about difficult to recycle materials from non-producing nations or underdeveloped nations, and even in developed nations, we need cross-border appreciation of the materials that need to move back and forth,” said Campbell from LyondellBasell. Liquid crackers that can process feedstock from hard-to-recycle plastic waste are not located everywhere, she added. NARROWING SCOPE IS KEY Narrowing the scope of the negotiations solely to ending plastic pollution rather than changing existing regulatory programs is what the industry seeks. “So far, too much of the discussion has been centered around curbing production and the use of plastics,” said the AFPM’s Thompson. "Plastic has no place in the environment and we are doing something about it. However, some negotiators have mistaken plastic itself as the problem and are advocating to cap plastic production," said Karen McKee, president of ExxonMobil Product Solutions and the recipient of the Petrochemical Heritage Award at the IPC. "All the negotiators need to remember that the nations of the world are counting on them to remember sound science as they work on a global plastics treaty," she added. Production caps and bans would mostly hurt middle class consumers and underserved communities by making essential products more expensive, an industry CEO argued. “Everybody that comes to the table is here for the same reason – we want to end plastic pollution. But we sometimes get lost in the weeds about the things we can’t agree on… If we can narrow that scope… we can actually have a global framework that works,” said LyondellBasell’s Campbell. To paraphrase an industry CEO, we are facing a multi-generational challenge to address plastic pollution. And the chemical industry is uniquely positioned to make a meaningful difference. Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC takes place on 24-26 March in San Antonio, Texas.

26-Mar-2024

Dow, ExxonMobil among chems picked in US $6 billion CO2 cutting program

HOUSTON (ICIS)–A $6 billion industrial decarbonization program by the US will fund many chemical projects being developed by Dow, ExxonMobil and other companies, featuring projects as diverse as using carbon dioxide (CO2) as a feedstock, recycling plastic and burning hydrogen as a fuel, the Department of Energy (DOE) said on Monday. The following describes the seven chemical projects chosen by the US. ExxonMobil is developing the Baytown Olefins Plant Carbon Reduction Project in Texas. The project will use new burner technologies to combust hydrogen instead of natural gas for ethylene production. The project should cut more 2.5 million tonnes/year of carbon emissions, or more than 50% of the cracker's total emissions. The project will receive up to $331.9 million from the government. A subsidiary of Orsted plans to build a 300,000 tonne/year e-methanol plant on the Gulf Coast in Texas. The subsidiary, Orsted P2X US Holding, expects the e-methanol will be used as fuel for marine shipping and transportation. E-methanol is made with CO2 with green hydrogen. Orsted is already developing such a project in Sweden. The Texas project will receive up to $100 million from the government. BASF plans to develop a project in Freeport, Texas, that will convert liquid byproducts into synthesis gas (syngas) using plasma gasification and renewable power. Syngas is a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide (CO). BASF will use the syngas as feedstock for its operations in Freeport. The project will receive up to $75 million from the government. LanzaTech and T.EN Stone & Webster Process Technology plan to develop a project on the US Gulf Coast that will capture CO2 emissions from crackers. It will then use green hydrogen and a biotech-based process to convert the captured CO2 into ethanol and ethylene. LanzaTech has developed strains of bacteria that ferment CO2 using hydrogen as an energy source. The name of the project is Sustainable Ethylene from CO2 Utilization with Renewable Energy (SECURE), and it will receive up to $200 million from the government. Ashland's subsidiary, ISP Chemicals, plans to replace natural gas boilers with electric heat delivered by a thermal battery at its plant in Calvert City, Kentucky. Other partners in the project include the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and Electrified Thermal Solutions (ETS), which is supplying its Joule Hive system. The project will receive up to $35.2 million from the government. Dow's project will be developed on the US Gulf Coast and it will capture up to 100,000 tonnes/year of CO2 from ethylene oxide (EO) production. The project will then use the CO2 to produce chemicals used in electrolyte solutions to make domestic lithium-ion batteries. The project will receive up to $95 million from the government. Eastman is building a chemical recycling plant in Longview, Texas, that will use its methanolysis technology to break down waste polyethylene terephthalate (PET) into dimethyl terephthalate (DMT) and monoethylene glycol (MEG). The plant plans to use thermal energy storage combined with on-site solar power to reduce the carbon intensity of its process heating operations. It will receive up to $375 million from the government. DETAILS ABOUT THE US PROGRAMThe US expects the program will cut more than 14 million tonnes/year of emissions of CO2 from 33 projects. On average, each of the projects will cut carbon emissions by 77%. Out of the $6 billion, $489 million will come from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and $5.47 billion will come from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The fund will target the following: Seven chemical and refining projects. Six cement and concrete projects. Six iron and steel projects. Five aluminium and metals projects. Three food and beverage projects. Three glass projects. Two process heat-focused projects. One pulp and paper project.

25-Mar-2024

Specialised analytics

Optimise outcomes with ICIS specialised analytics tools, seamlessly integrated into your workflows and processes via Data as a Service (DaaS). Or gain access to recycled plastics with our innovative Mechanical and Chemical Recycling Supply Trackers.

Contact us

Partnering with ICIS unlocks a vision of a future you can trust and achieve. We leverage our unrivalled network of industry experts to deliver a comprehensive market view based on trusted data, insight and analytics, supporting our partners as they transact today and plan for tomorrow.

    We would like to keep you up-to-date with what’s happening at ICIS* and tell you about our latest products and other services. We may email you about information we think you’ll be interested in, including selected articles and reminders about forthcoming events. If you do not wish to receive such information please tick the box to opt out of these emails