The Outlook Ammonia is published monthly and covers the global market. Our reliable and trustworthy report gives detailed news and analysis on key drivers, price forecasts, demand and supply patterns, deals and visual data, as well as any other pertinent factors influencing the market at the time of publication. This information can allow you to make informed business choices by keeping you abreast of price movements that are likely to impact short-term trades and strategies over the next 12 months. These are produced by Integer Research on behalf of ICIS.
How we can help
The Outlook Ammonia news and market information products from ICIS
We offer the following regional The Outlook Ammonia analysis and news coverage to keep you informed of factors and developments affecting prices in the The Outlook Ammonia marketplace.
Price Reporting – More information about the price reports we publish on The Outlook Ammonia
Independent price assessments and market coverage by region
Price History – More information about the historical price data we publish on The Outlook Ammonia
Track historical price data
News & analysis
News & Analysis - News & market analysis specifically relating to The Outlook Ammonia
Breaking news of latest developments affecting the markets.
Insight and analysis of factors driving prices.
The Outlook Ammonia: Market overview
Updated to Q4 2018
All eyes are on the 660,000 tonne/year PAU plant in Indonesia, as the smooth running of that facility should more than cover Mitsubishi’s contract commitments throughout the wider region during the fourth quarter. Any hiccups at the facility would probably force the Japanese trader into the spot market, as seen by Indonesia’s Parna Raya which secured an Egyptian cargo to cover customers during a turnaround.
Little change in ammonia spot demand is expected quarter on quarter with no major activity seen for October arrivals. Korean group Namhae will perform various plant turnarounds that will reduce its spot requirement, a trend that likely repeated in Taiwan as CPDC carries out maintenance on downstream plants. FACT India has already secured spot cargoes for October and November arrival.
Export volumes from the Black Sea are expected to climb quarter on quarter, as Rossosh has exited a turnaround, and the signing of a new gas tolling deal by OPZ should see the troubled Ukrainian producer resume manufacturing activities during October or November. Loading schedules in early October were disrupted by pipeline maintenance and delays to vessels using the Turkish Straits.
No major change in ammonia demand is anticipated by market participants for the final few months of the year, with the devaluation of the Turkish lira limiting spot activity close to the Black Sea at the start of the fourth quarter. OCI will lift 11,000 tonnes acquired from Ameropa on a FOB basis for October lifting, with Trammo also expected to load spot volumes from Yuzhny.
With many of the ammonia plants in Trinidad and Tobago having completed turnarounds in quarter three, the only cloud on the horizon for producers for the fourth quarter is a hike in natural gas curtailments for 30 days from late October. Feedstock restrictions are expected to jump to at least 25% during November, meaning units will be unable to run at capacity.
No spot business for Q4 arrival in the US had been heard at the start of the quarter, with buyers’ requirements appearing covered by domestic supply, and imported volumes from the Caribbean. Venezuela’s Pequiven was heard offering around 16,000 tonnes for October or November arrival, but no deal has yet been confirmed.
News & analysis
The Outlook Ammonia news & analysis
ICIS price assessments are based on information gathered from a wide cross-section of the market, comprising consumers, producers, traders and distributors from more than 250 reporters world-wide. Confirmed deals, verified by both buyer and seller, provide the foundation of our price assessments.
Our in-depth market knowledge drives our specialist focus, as we recognise the importance of individual market dynamics and not a one-size-fits-all approach.
Over 25 years of reporting on key chemicals markets, including Ammonia, has brought global recognition of our methodology as being unbiased, authoritative and rigorous in preserving our editorial integrity. Our global network of reporters in Houston, London, Singapore, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Mumbai, Perth and Moscow ensures unrivalled coverage of established and emerging markets.
The Outlook Methodology
About The Outlook Ammonia
Ammonia is one of the main sources of nitrogen in fertilisers, as it contains 82% of nitrogen (N), which is essential for the life of plants. Ammonia (NH3) is produced through a chemical reaction (electrolysis). Most of the world’s ammonia production is based on the Haber-Bosch process which was developed by BASF in 1910.
It involves the reaction of hydrogen and nitrogen in the presence of a catalyst under high temperatures and pressures. The hydrogen is usually obtained by the steam reforming of natural gas (methane) but can also be made from the partial oxidation of naphtha and the gasification of coal. The nitrogen is usually obtained by the liquefaction of air.
This reaction requires a large amount of energy and, nowadays, this is provided mainly in the form of natural gas, as it is the most economic, but there are still some ammonia plants, for example in China and Japan, which operate based on naphtha and coal.
Since the 1970s, the production of ammonia, which was born in Europe, has gradually migrated to countries rich in cheap natural gas, such as Russia, Ukraine, Trinidad, Libya, Algeria, Egypt, the Arab Gulf and Indonesia .