World oil demand is projected to increase at an annual average rate of 1%, between 2013 and 2030, based on results from the latest ICIS Supply and Demand database release. Two opposite trends, however, will continue to characterise global developments, as mature markets in OECD member countries confront with rising requirements in the emerging economies.
OECD oil consumption will continue on its declining trend reflecting mainly penetration of alternative cleaner energy sources, economic growth slowdown and improving vehicle efficiency. A different scenario is expected in the rest of the world, with non-OECD Asia to account for the largest part of incremental demand.
Factors like increasing urbanization rate, growth of the consumer class and economic policy liberalization will be key drivers. By 2030 oil demand projections indicate a decline of about 100 million tonnes per year in OECD countries and a gain of almost 900 million tonnes in the rest of world.