OPEC revises up its forecast for 2013 non-OPEC oil supply

10 December 2013 12:12 Source:ICIS News

LONDON (ICIS)--OPEC on Tuesday, in its latest monthly oil report for December, revised up its forecast for non-OPEC oil supply to increase by 1.20m bbl/day in 2013 to average 54.11m bbl/day.

This revision came in the second half of 2013 because of higher-than-expected output during the third and part of the fourth quarters, although it was partially offset by a downward revision to its first-quarter supply estimate, OPEC added.

“The supply profiles of the US, Russia, China and Egypt were revised up, while the production outlooks for Canada, Brazil, Brunei, other Latin America, other FSU, Colombia and Azerbaijan were revised down. However, the total upward adjustment more than offset the downward revisions,” it said.

“The continued strong growth from US tight oil production as well as Russian and Chinese oil supply supported the upward revision. Various unplanned outages in addition to political factors are among the main reasons behind the downward revisions,” OPEC added.

In 2014, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.20m bbl/day in 2014 to average 55.32m bbl/day, remaining relatively unchanged from the previous monthly oil report.

OPEC said output growth in 2014 is expected to come mainly from the US, Canada, the Sudans, Kazakhstan, Russia, Australia, China, Malaysia and Colombia, while oil supply from Norway, Syria, the UK, and Mexico is seen declining.

World oil demand is expected to reach 89.79m bbl/day in 2013, an increase of 870,000 bbl/day over the previous year, and almost unchanged from OPEC’s last monthly report.

“Looking ahead to 2014, world oil demand is projected to increase by 1.04m bbl/day, unchanged from the previous month, to average 98.84m bbl/day,” OPEC said.

“The bulk of the growth will come from non-OECD [organisation for economic co-operation and development] demand, projected to rise by 1.2m bbl/day, while OECD demand should continue to contract by 200,000 bbl/day, an improvement over the previous year,” it added.

OPEC also said the current outlook is strongly dependent on the pace of economic recovery in major OECD economies, China and India.

By Franco Capaldo