Americas Chemical Industry Outlook for 2014
ICIS Editorial
07-Jan-2014
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The following OUTLOOK ’14 stories were published by ICIS news between Monday, 23 December 2013 and Monday, 6 January 2014. Please click on the headlines to read the full versions.
OUTLOOK ’14: US benzene supply
expected to follow global
trend
With 2013 coming to a close,
a large majority of US benzene market participants have said
they expect the market to be long for much of 2014. Many
trade participants added that they expect supply demand
balances to be similar for 2014.
OUTLOOK ’14: US styrene expected
to be more tied to market
conditions
US styrene trade
participants expect 2014 to see supply remain tight alongside
moderate growth in some consumer areas. In addition, some
suppliers expect to see more of a disconnect between the
styrene market and feedstock benzene costs.
OUTLOOK ’14: Benzene continues to
be wild card in US PS, EPS
pricing
Volatile benzene pricing
will continue to be the driver for US polystyrene (PS) and
expandable polystyrene (EPS) pricing in 2014, with flat to
only slight growth anticipated for both markets, sources
said.
OUTLOOK `14: North America TiO2
pricing power unlikely until
H2
North American TiO2 market
supply will be plentiful heading into the new year, sources
said, but although there is little talk of continued
oversupply, pricing power is not expected to return to the
market anytime soon.
OUTLOOK ’14: US acetyls to see
price hikes, turnarounds in Q1,
Q2
The US acetyls chain should see
more price increases and significant maintenance activity in
the first and second quarters of the new year.
OUTLOOK `14: US phenol rates will
continue to limit acetone
supply
The US acetone market in
2014 will be balanced to tight in the first half of the year,
most sources said, aggravated only slightly in the first
quarter because of the absence of some volume after a
mid-December unplanned outage at Blue Island
Phenol’s 26,600 tonne/year plant in Illinois.
OUTLOOK ’14: Methanol watchers
look for price drop in
January
Methanol veterans expect
spot barge prices to drop in the first few months of 2014
because of more production coming online in the US.
OUTLOOK ’14: US solvents could see
roller coaster of activity
The
first quarter could bring mixed results for solvents in the
US petrochemicals markets. While propylene-driven
petrochemicals such as isopropanol alcohol (IPA) and methyl
isobutyl ketone (MIBK) could see price increases based on
higher raw materials costs, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) prices
could remain flat to soft.
OUTLOOK ’14: US oxo-alcohols,
plasticizers face market shift
The
US oxo-alcohols and plasticizers markets are enjoying
accelerating growth heading into 2014 as a rebound in housing
and construction activity pushes downstream demand for
polyvinyl chloride (PVC), paints and coatings and a wide
number of consumer and other products that demand flexible
plastic and transparent film.
OUTLOOK ’14: US soda ash faces
challenges in consumption,
competition
If 2013 marked the
return of the US soda ash industry to near its previous peak,
2014 promises to be the year in which the industry sets new
production and sales records.
OUTLOOK ’14: US etac, butac
activity to rebound for coatings
season
The US ethyl acetate (etac)
and butyl acetate (butac) markets – which are ending 2013
somewhat quiet and flat – could see quite a bit of activity
the first quarter of 2014.
OUTLOOK ’14: Group III base oils
reach event horizon
The year 2013
ushered in the advent of significant changes to global base
oils, primarily led by increasing production and use of Group
II stocks. The year 2014 is likely to be the event horizon
for Group III base oils.
OUTLOOK ’14: US fatty alcohol
price sentiment remains flat
Price
sentiment for US fatty alcohols going into 2014 remains
largely flat, with routine demand and growing Asian supply
underpinning that perspective.
OUTLOOK ’14: Oleochemical markets
eyes US biodiesel sector’s
fate
Global oleochemical players
are closely watching the fate of the highly politicized US
biodiesel industry as a gauge for what 2014 holds in store.
OUTLOOK ’14: North American
sulphur prices headed up for
now
The North American sulphur
market will likely see price increases in Q1 2014 reflecting
tightening in the international market. Whether these
increases are sustainable is an open question, as there are
concerns about unpredictable speculator activity in China and
whether phosphate prices will continue to recover.
OUTLOOK ’14: Additional capacity,
margins will be key to US
ethylene
Continuing battles for
margin between US ethylene producers and derivatives
producers and additional capacity expected to hit the market
will be the biggest drivers in the US ethylene market for
2014.
OUTLOOK ’14: US EG increase
anticipated at start of new
year
US ethylene glycol (EG)
contract prices are poised to rise in January on the back of
producer-led price increases.
OUTLOOK ’14: US propylene could
start strong before big fall
With
US propylene prices expected to start 2014 strong, there
could be nowhere to go but down for much of the rest of the
year.
OUTLOOK ’14: Coatings could boost
MMA; epoxy set to struggle
The US
spring coatings season can’t arrive fast enough for the US
methyl methacrylate (MMA) and epoxy resins markets, but is
likely only to save one.
OUTLOOK ’14: Tight supply expected
to support US polyolefins
pricing
While positive economic
signs are bolstering sentiment about improved demand in the
US polyolefins sector in 2014, tight supply of feedstocks and
polymers in the first half of the year is expected to lend
support to pricing.
OUTLOOK ’14: US PET price
direction uncertain due to
feedstock
Price direction in the
US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market heading into
2014 has become uncertain on the back of
difficult-to-settle feedstock.
OUTLOOK ’14: US chlor-alkali
export options strong for
2014
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US
chlor-alkali export options look strong going into 2014, as
lower natural gas and overall energy costs in the US offer
good ECU (electrochemical unit) margins.
OUTLOOK ’14: Transformations
to spark chemical M&A
activity
The global chemical
mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market is set to get an
extra kick in 2014 as chemical companies become more
aggressive on transformations, shedding non-core assets to
focus on key growth areas. The financing market for deals is
also expected to remain strong, along with buyer interest
from both strategic and financial players.
OUTLOOK ’14: US butadiene
market at mercy of consumer
habits
US butadiene (BD) market
players feel that consumer choices and gasoline prices will
go a long way toward determining their 2014.
OUTLOOK ’14: US SBR expecting
slow recovery as tyre demand picks
up
While the slow recovery in the
replacement tyre market has made the US
styrene-butadiene-rubber (SBR) industry cautious about
the outlook for 2014, some believe there is room
for optimism with demand slowly picking up as the economy
continues to improve.
OUTLOOK ’14: Steady-to-soft PVC in
LatAm on balanced
supply/demand
Industry
participants are projecting steady to soft polyvinyl chloride
(PVC) domestic markets in Latin America in early 2014 on
balanced fundamentals in the region.
“”>OUTLOOK ’14: Currency volatility,
imports to influence LatAm
PE
Polyethylene prices in Latin
America have been influenced by many factors such as the cost
of raw materials or changes in availability of resins, but
the factor that has had the greatest impact in 2013 has been
volatility in currency fluctuations, which is expected to
continue in 2014.
OUTLOOK ’14: LatAm PP plants
could benefit if PDH plants
proliferate
Availability of raw
materials will continue to be the key for polypropylene (PP)
production in Latin America during 2014.
OUTLOOK ’14: LatAm PS prices
to keep moving in a narrow
band
Latin American polystyrene
(PS) markets have varied little all year and have not shown
great differences from country to country, trends that are
expected to continue in 2014.
OUTLOOK ’14: US gasoline
prices more influenced by bearish
oil
US gasoline prices this year
may not reach the highs seen in 2013 as increased production
rates and a greater influence from bearish crude oil prices
will heavily influence the commodity.
OUTLOOK ’14: US spot propane
prices gain strength as supplies
dwindle
Supplies of propane
heading into 2014 are not keeping pace with demand despite
projections of increased production of the natural gas liquid
(NGL), lending strength to prices.
OUTLOOK ’14: US fuel ethanol
industry recovers on robust corn
harvest
Despite improved margins
in 2013, the future of fuel ethanol production in the US may
be ultimately in the hands of lawmakers in 2014.
OUTLOOK ’14: US biodiesel
uncertain as politics take center
stage
The highly politicised US
biodiesel industry looks uncertain going into 2014 amid
stagnant US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) blending
mandate proposals and doubt in the sector that the $1/gal
federal tax credit will be renewed.
OUTLOOK ’14: US economy to build
on new energy, global
recovery
Driven by abundant new
energy supplies, a strengthening global recovery and
increasing domestic consumer demand, the US economy is widely
expected to reach or come very close to normal growth rates
in 2014.
OUTLOOK ’14: Industry hopes
for action on TSCA, CFATS
The US
chemicals industry hopes to get congressional approval in the
new year for a long-needed modernisation of rules governing
control of chemicals in commerce and an as-is extension for a
federal mandate for plant site security – but both have to
happen by mid-year or else get mired in the midterm election
mess.
OUTLOOK ’14: US chem, refiner
stock prices end year on high
note
Stock prices for several
North American petrochemical producers and refiners ended the
year near 52-week highs.
OUTLOOK ’14: Smaller projects
presage gas-fueled plant boom
The
new year will have mostly smaller projects coming on line
before the surge of activity begins in the second half of the
decade.
OUTLOOK ’14: Energy reform
may lift Mexico economy out of
doldrums
Mexico’s economy could
grow by as little as 0.9% this year, but the prospects of
energy reform could give the country a much needed boost.
OUTLOOK ’14: Economic
prospects darken for
Brazil
Economic prospects continue
to darken for Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy.
INSIDE VIEW: Safety, trade,
energy top ACC 2014 agenda
The
business of chemistry was one of the bright spots in the US
economy in 2013, and it is clear that the best is yet to
come.
INSIDE VIEW: Industry
challenges, opportunities for
2014
Forgive me for using what has
become an overused saying, but as I look ahead to 2014, it
seems like déjà vu all over again.
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