OPEC revises up its forecast for 2014 non-OPEC oil supply

LONDON (ICIS)–OPEC on Thursday revised up its forecast for non-OPEC oil supply in 2014 on the back of expected growth in the US, Canada, Brazil and the Sudans.

In 2014, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 1.27m bbl/day, up by 70,000 bbl/day from OPEC’s previous assessment, to average 55.38m bbl/day.

“Growth is seen coming mainly from the US, Canada, Brazil and the Sudans, while Norway, UK and Mexico are seen declining in 2014,” OPEC said in its latest monthly oil report for January.

“The upward change to total non-OPEC supply was due to the carryover of some revisions introduced to 2013 supply estimates, particularly preliminary output in December, as well as to various updates to individual supply profiles,” it added.

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2013 is estimated to have averaged 54.11m bbl/day, a rise of 1.24m bbl/day over 2012 and up by 50,000 bbl/day from OPEC’s previous report, driven by strong growth from OECD [organisation for economic co-operation and development] Americas.

The supply of OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional oils in 2014 is projected to average 5.95m bbl/day, an increase 150,000 bbl/day over the previous year and unchanged from the previous report.

World oil demand growth in 2014 is expected to be around 1.05m bbl/day, up by a marginal 10,000 bbl/day from OPEC’s previous report, to reach 90.91m bbl/day.

World oil demand growth for 2013 was revised up by 70,000 bbl/day by OPEC, to stand at 940,000 bbl/day compared with the year before. This means world oil demand averaged 89.86m bbl/day in 2013.

“The upward revisions in OECD Americas and Europe reflect the most recent data,” OPEC said.

Demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 29.6m bbl/day in 2014, a decrease of 400,000 bbl/day from 2013, unchanged from the previous report.

OPEC retained its growth estimates for the global economy in 2013 and 2014 at 2.9% and 3.5% respectively.

“The OECD economies are recovering and are expected to grow in 2014 at 1.9%, compared to 1.2% in 2013, unchanged from previous month’s forecast. China’s growth remains unchanged at 7.8% for both 2013 and 2014, while India’s forecast remains at 4.7% and 5.6%,” OPEC said.

Additional reporting by Kawai Wong