Non-OPEC oil supply in 2014 to increase by 1.31m bbl/day

12 March 2014 13:32 Source:ICIS News

LONDON (ICIS)--Non-OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil supply in 2014 is forecast to increase by 1.31m bbl/day over last year to average 55.49m bbl/day, OPEC said in its March monthly oil market report on Wednesday.

The current supply expectation indicates an upward revision of 60,000 bbl/day to total non-OPEC supply from January to February 2014, while anticipated growth for the rest of the year was revised up 30,000 bbl/day from OPEC's previous report, on the back of strong output growth from OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) members in the Americas.

“In addition to historical revisions, there were a few offsetting adjustments to the 2014 non-OPEC supply forecast. The total US and Canada oil supply forecast for 2014 is a respective average of 12.02 mb/d and 4.14 mb/d. Growth was revised up by 30,000 bbl/day and 10,000 bbl/day, respectively, compared with the previous MOMR [monthly oil market report],” OPEC said.

OPEC NGLs natural gas liquids production is forecast to average 5.95m bbl/day in 2014, following output of 5.80m bbl/day in 2013, unchanged from the last report.

OPEC's February production rose by 259,000 bbl/day to average 30.12m bbl/day. “As a result, preliminary data indicates that global oil supply increased 440,000 bbl/day in February to average 91.3m b/d,” OPEC said.

World oil demand growth in 2014 is expected to be around 1.14m bbl/day, representing an upward adjustment of 50,000 bbl/day from last month’s figures, to reach 91.1m bbl/day.

World oil demand growth for 2013 was also revised up, increasing by 70,000 bbl/day to stand at 1.05m bbl/day. “Upward revisions were seen in OECD Americas and Europe, reflecting stronger-than-expected seasonal demand for 4Q13,” OPEC said.

The report also stated that in February, cold weather, supply disruptions and geopolitical factors helped to push oil markets higher, with the WTI front-month contracts rising $5.82 to average $100.68/bbl, while the ICE Brent Futures rose $1.72 to $108.84/bbl. The OPEC Reference Basket stood at $105/bbl for the month.

OPEC also revised its economic forecast for China and Brazil in its monthly report. China will register one decimal point less of growth (7.6%) while Brazil sees its forecast cut by 0.4% to 2.3% in a general “downturn” in emerging markets.

By Jonathan Lopez