Non-OPEC crude supply forecast for 2014 revised upwards

13 May 2014 12:12 Source:ICIS News

OPECLONDON (ICIS)--The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday revised up its forecast for non-OPEC crude supply in 2014 by 30,000 bbl/day to 1.38m bbl/day, to average 55.58m bbl/day, on the back of better output from the main producers as well as the startup of new projects this year.

OPEC said better-than-expected output during the first quarter of 2014 in non-OPEC members, including the US, Canada, Norway, the UK, Australia, Malaysia, Brazil, Bahrain, Egypt and Azerbaijan, had all helped push up the forecast for 2014.

New projects scheduled to start up this year could also add to, or keep production growth steady in 2014, OPEC added in its Monthly Oil Market Report for May.

“The revision [upwards in non-OPEC countries] comes despite the pushing back of the Kashaghan field in Kazakhstan to 2016 from the originally planned 2014. The upward adjustment to total non-OPEC supply was partially due to the carry-over of some revisions introduced to 2013 supply estimates, particularly regarding output from Bahrain and Egypt,” said OPEC.

The report added that non-OPEC countries registered in April a small decrease in production of 10,000 bbl/day month on month, but it was offset by an increase in OPEC member output.  

OPEC said its own members had registered an increase in output in April of 131,000 bbl/day to average 29.59m bbl/day (32.6% of the global supply), on the back of an improvement in output coming from Iraq. Globally, April saw oil supply increasing by 160,000 bbl/day month on month to average 90.80m bbl/day.

It expects output of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventionals within its members t stand at 5.81m bbl/day in 2014, up 150,000 bbl/day compared to 2013.

OPEC kept its forecast for global demand in 2014 unchanged at 91.15m bbl/day, up by 1.14m bb/day year on year, and said nearly half of the global demand will come from China and the Middle East. The demand for OPEC crude is projected to be 29.8m bbl/day in 2014, representing a decrease of 400,000 bbl/day from the previous year.

Its world economic growth forecast was left unchanged at 3.4% for 2014, up from the 2.9% registered in 2013, although OPEC revised upwards its growth forecast for the eurozone economy by 0.2 percentage points to 1% growth, while it lowered US growth to 2.4% growth, down from the previous 2.7%.

The lower growth in the US will come, said OPEC, on the back of a weak first quarter of the year, with growth just at 0.1%, while the eurozone’s upwards revision was due to the “tenderly improving output growth” registered in the region.

Russia’s growth forecast for 2014 is also lowered from 1.0% to 0.9% on the back the crisis in Ukraine and its financial consequences.  

OPEC concluded that although developed economies keep recovering, “risks became apparent recently with industrialised economies also potentially facing some headwinds” like US’ slow Q1 growth or how Japan will cope with a sales tax increase which could affect an already weak domestic consumption.

“Moreover, deceleration in the emerging economies continued with Russia being negatively affected by large capital outflows due to the latest geopolitical developments, and output was also slowing in China and Brazil. India, on the other hand, continues to recover from last year’s considerable slow-down,” said OPEC.

By Jonathan Lopez