Europe's construction sentiment plunges in September- CMCI

30 September 2016 11:09 Source:ICIS News

LONDON (ICIS)--Confidence in European construction markets fell in both the short and long term forecasts, according to ICIS chemical markets confidence index (CMCI) data on Friday.

Profitability and order book forecasts over the next 12 months were particularly negative, with the former falling into negative territory after being positive in August.

However, the index was down across the board, reflecting a deep drop in both long-term and short-term forecasts and putting most indications close to or below June 2016, a deeply pessimistic month.

This may be partially due to negative economic data and a poor outlook for the construction industry in July economic statistics, although September data released this week shows a more positive outlook.

It also contradicts a rising short-term trend in construction output seen in July.

Demand in some of the plastics markets used for construction such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and expandable polystyrene (EPS) was also seen as below par this month.

The pessimism in most categories was driven by traders, who were in negative territory for the majority of indicators with producers and traders more positive.

However, buyers and producers were also negative on profitability in both the short and long terms.

The most stable indications were in expectations for business conditions for the next 12 months, which fell by less than a percentage point. Expectations have fallen steadily in this index since ICIS began tracking data in May 2016.

The newly established ICIS Europe CMCI aggregates sentiment from hundreds of petrochemical market players actively involved in price negotiations across more than 60 different markets.

The Europe CMCI runs from +100, to -100, with zero on each index representing neutral, or uncertain conditions, a negative score indicating bearish expectations and a positive score representing bullish expectations. The indices also gather sentiment on the comparison between the current situation and the situation across the past 12 months to give a complete picture of current market conditions and confidence. The information is gathered in the third week of each month.  A full methodology is available on request.

For more details on the overall Europe CMCI data, click here


By Chris Barker