Jan polyolefins CMCI – short term positive, long term negative

LONDON (ICIS)–Short-term indicators for polyolefins are positive in Europe for January whilst future predictions are more negative, according to the ICIS Chemical Markets Confidence Index (CMCI) on Thursday.


(Forward-looking data for December was for next 12 months, while from January onwards, forward-looking sentiment will be based on the next six months)

This represents a slump compared to the bullish situation in December, and may reflect a reversion to a more normal outlook for the market.

The uncertainty surrounding factors such as rising populism in the eurozone, the future of the UK in relation to the EU and protectionism in the US may have contributed to the more negative outlook this month.

Despite the decrease, the index remained mostly in positive or neutral territory except for profitability which remained below zero.

The weaker sentiment with regards to future business conditions and order books was mostly driven by producers and traders.

The newly established ICIS Europe CMCI aggregates sentiment from hundreds of petrochemical market players actively involved in price negotiations across more than 60 different markets.

The Europe CMCI runs from +100, to -100, with zero on each index representing neutral, or uncertain conditions, a negative score indicating bearish expectations and a positive score representing bullish expectations. The indices also gather sentiment on the comparison between the current situation and the situation across the past 12 months to give a complete picture of current market conditions and confidence. The information is gathered in the third week of each month.  A full methodology is available on request.

For more details on the overall Europe CMCI data, click here