Europe petrochemical producers to hike naphtha use in crackers
Cuckoo James
27-Jan-2017
LONDON (ICIS)–European petrochemical producers are set to
increase use of feedstock naphtha in steam
cracking, particularly in coastal areas, because of
higher cracker margins, good availability and a bullish
outlook on co-products.
If producers were to ramp up naphtha usage, it could
potentially increase butadiene and aromatics supply in Europe
to an extent, as naphtha yields a larger volume of
these products.
Amid the on-going decline in LPG (liquefied petroleum gas)
margins, several sources said that European crackers would
be reaching a switching point from LPG to naphtha.
Some have already made the switch, a feedstocks trader
said.
Steam crackers produce ethylene, propylene, and
co-products butadiene and aromatics-rich pygas. Close to 80%
of steam cracking capacity in Europe is configured to employ
the typically costlier naphtha feedstock. The remainder of
the continent’s capacity has more flexibility over feedstock
use.
Producers have been maximising propane use for the remainder
capacity, especially in coastal areas, as contract
naphtha-based margins in 2016 were on average at €542/tonne,
while contract cracker margins based on LPG for 2016 stood at
an average of €601/tonne. The cost of transporting
propane to inland markets destroys some of its value relative
to naphtha.
In the new year, contract naphtha margins have outperformed
LPG cracker margins (see chart).
Source: ICIS cracker margin report
Market sources are expecting naphtha-based contract cracker
margins to increase further on a bullish co-products market.
Naphtha yields a larger amount of co-products butadiene and
aromatics-rich pygas.
European aromatics prices have surged higher this week,
largely driven by sharp increases in the benzene spot market
as January draws to a close. January and February benzene
prices have breached the $1,000/tonne CIF ARA level for the
first time since November 2014.
Tight regional supply as well as continued upward momentum in
the US Gulf has supported the bullishness in the benzene
market ahead of February. This has also supported some higher
numbers for toluene and mixed xylenes (MX), with more export
demand emerging due to higher global pricing.
With the naphtha/benzene spread approaching $600/tonne as
January draws to a close, many aromatics players are
questioning whether the current prices levels seen for
benzene are sustainable. With healthy HDA (hydrodealkylation)
production economics into March due to the widening
toluene/benzene spread as well as the various global styrene
turnarounds from February onwards, some sources are expecting
a sharp downward correction on benzene before the end of the
first quarter.
Benzene-naphtha price spread is approaching $600/tonne
Meanwhile, pricing is also bullish for co-product
butadiene, with the February contract price settling up
49% at €1,400/tonne. The hefty increase for butadiene will be
key to cracker operators’ choice of feedstock.
Given better-than-expected Q4 demand following a string of
hiccups and outages throughout 2016, the European butadiene
supply/demand balance was already fairly tight heading into
the new year. Asian demand has rocketed, as have spot prices,
meaning that the pull on European volumes have been huge.
European export prices reached five-year highs this month,
quadrupling year on year.
At the same time, domestic butadiene consumers well aware of
potential supply tightness have exercised their rights to
maximise contract volumes, leaving butadiene producers
ostensibly short on spot volumes with which to play the
arbitrage game. However spot deals have been found and
sources link this largely to the reduction in light feedstock
– LPG – cracking, although there is the suggestion that
smaller butadiene consumers might have been seeing some cuts
in volume.
Apart from margins, availability is an overriding factor in
feedstock choice. Prompt LPG supply is tight, particularly
that of propane due to advantageous arbitrage opportunities
for US volumes in Asia which is displacing some
volumes normally destined for Europe. The market
is more balanced going into the second half of
February.
On the other hand, naphtha availability is healthy, partly on
a reduction in US gasoline blending demand.
Focus article by Cuckoo James, Nel
Weddle and Truong Mellor
(pictured above: BASF’s cracker in
Ludwigshafen, Germany. Source: BASF)
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