PotashCorp forecasts sharp drop in US nitrogen imports in 2017

Mining operation in Rocanville, Saskatchewan. (Image used under license from Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc.)

LONDON (ICIS)–Canadian producer PotashCorp (PCS) expects the US to continue to drastically reduce imports of nitrogen fertilizer this year, the company said today.

Imports during 2016 were already down on the previous year. Last year, the US is estimated to have imported 13% less ammonia at 4.6m tonnes, 11% less urea at 6.5m tonnes and 11% less UAN at 2.8m tonnes, according to PCS.

The decline in imports is due to new capacity coming on stream in the US in 2016 and 2017, including new plants from CF Industries, Agrium and OCI.

For 2017, PCS forecasts ammonia imports into the US at 4.1 tonnes, down 11% from the 4.6m tonnes it is estimated to have imported in 2016. Trinidad is the biggest exporter of ammonia into the US, accounting for around 65% of market share.

Imports of urea in 2017 are expected to decline to 5m tonnes, down 23% from the 6.5m tonnes it is estimated to have imported in 2016. The Arab Gulf accounts for 60% of urea imported into the US annually. 

UAN imports are expected to decline to 1.5m tonnes this year, down over 46% from an estimated 2.8m tonnes imported last year, according to the fertilizer major. Russia accounts for around 40% of UAN imported into the country and Trinidad around 15%.

Higher domestic production in the US is expected to displace supply from marginal producers in Russia and China, the company said.

The producer also sees lower urea exports from China this year as higher production costs and environmental concerns have forced Chinese producers to cut down output or idle capacity.

In 2016, average operating rates in China were around 62%, but they have fallen to around 52% at present, the producer said.

PCS forecasts that Chinese exports of urea will total between 5.5-7m tonnes in 2017, down sharply from the 8.87m tonnes exported last year – and that in turn was down 35% from the record 13.75m tonnes exported in 2015.