US March propylene contracts settle up 4 cents/lb to over two-year highs
Tracy Dang
24-Mar-2017
Focus article by Tracy Dang
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Snug supply and low inventories have pushed
up US propylene prices, prompting contracts for March to
settle at their highest levels in more than two years.
March propylene contracts settled on Wednesday and Thursday
at increases of 4 cents/lb from February, putting prices for
polymer-grade propylene (PGP) at 52.0 cents/lb ($1,146/tonne)
and chemical-grade propylene (CGP) at 50.5 cents/lb.
The settlement marks three consecutive months of hikes and
puts prices at their highest level since December 2014, when
discussions were agreed for PGP at 61.5 cents/lb and CGP at
60.0 cents/lb.
While market participants have been expecting March contracts
to settle higher, some believe that 4 cents/lb is too much of
an increase.
“Too high in my opinion, considering where spot is trading,”
a buyer said. “I expect to get it all back in April.”
Front-month PGP has traded in March at 50.5-52.5 cents/lb, up
from 41.0-51.0 cents/lb in February.
Several buyers accepted the March contract rise of 4 cents/lb
on Wednesday, but others held out for smaller increases of
3.0-3.5 cents/lb.
A source said that the early agreements were “okay at the
beginning of the month but not now”, considering that spot
PGP has fallen since trading at 52.5 cents/lb in the first
days of March.
Availability had been limited by recent cracker turnarounds
and production issues, but supply has improved somewhat as
two olefins units have restarted after completing planned
maintenance.
Additionally, US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
showed that propylene inventories had declined for 10
consecutive weeks, putting stockpiles at their lowest levels
in six months. However, inventory levels have rebounded
in the last two weeks.
Sources said that producers with steam crackers, metathesis
units and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants “all have zero
reason to request an increase”.
While there has been some downward pressure from lower values
for refinery-grade propylene (RGP), which can be used to make
PGP, sources said that the RGP/PGP spread has averaged about
15 cents/lb. This leaves splitter margins healthy, compared
with the typical 10-12 cents/lb seen during much of
2016.
Additionally, sentiment is bearish on expectations of
lengthening supply and lower demand, as several derivative
turnarounds are scheduled for the second quarter.
Some downstream producers are moving up planned maintenance
to late March and early April because of cost pressures from
high-priced propylene.
Sources said that a smaller decrease would have been better
for the derivative markets, as it would have mitigated some
demand destruction, which has already begun occurring.
Nevertheless, several other buyers accepted the 4 cent/lb
increase on Thursday.
US propylene contracts are typically settled in the first
half of the month for the rest of the month.
Major US propylene producers include Chevron Phillips
Chemical, Enterprise Products, ExxonMobil, Flint Hills
Resources and Shell Chemical.
Major buyers include Ascend Performance Materials, Braskem,
Dow Chemical, INEOS and Total.
Image: Propylene is the feedstock for polypropylene, which is commonly is used to make plastic bottles like these. Source: Monkey Business Images/REX/Shutterstock
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