OUTLOOK ’19: US nylon 6 to stay balanced, nylon 6,6 to remain tight

Lucas Hall

07-Jan-2019

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US nylon 6 market is expected to remain largely stable in 2019, while the US nylon 6,6 market is expected to see some demand destruction, owing to severely constrained supply caused by structurally short feedstock adiponitrile (ADN) supply globally.

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Supply of US benzene, which is used to make nylon 6 feedstock caprolactam (capro), is expected to be healthy, and producers of US nylon 6 plan to operate at high utilisation rates, keeping supply stable.

AdvanSix will conduct two routine biannual turnarounds on capro at its Hopewell, Virginia, plant.

These turnarounds may cause short-term supply constraints but are not expected to cause major disruptions in the domestic market.

Meanwhile, demand is expected to incrementally increase throughout the year as some users steadily convert to using nylon 6 and recycled nylon 6,6 amid severely constrained nylon 6,6 supply in the global market.

Nylon 6,6 is expected to remain tight through 2020 as global ADN capacity expansions slowly come on line through 2023.

Ascend is undergoing a 10-15% expansion of its nylon 6,6 supply chain.

The company added 50,000 tonnes/year of ADN capacity by end-2017 and will complete an additional 40,000 tonnes/year of capacity as of end-2018. An additional 180,000 tonnes/year of capacity is slated to be completed by 2022.

The company currently has an ADN capacity of 360,000 tonnes/year at its Decatur, Alabama, plant.

Ascend is on force majeure at its Pensacola, Florida, plant as of mid-December following a fire at the facility in July. The plant is running at high operating rates.

INVISTA is also increasing the ADN capacity at its Victoria, Texas, site, targeted for 2020.

The expansion is in addition to a new ADN plant announced for China by 2023 and new capacities resulting from retrofits of the company’s latest technology at a joint venture with Solvay in Butachimie, France.

Construction of the Chinese plant is slated to begin in 2020.

In the meantime, the market is expected to remain severely short, leading to some demand destruction.

Nevertheless, demand is likely to remain overall strong as the market incrementally adds ADN capacity in order to balance the supply deficit in the global market.

Overall, nylon demand is expected to be steady, in line with GDP growth and stable automotive manufacturing demand in the US.

Major producers of US nylon 6 include AdvanSix and BASF.

Major producers of US nylon 6,6 include Ascend Performance Materials and INVISTA.

Focus article by Lucas Hall

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