Phenol/Acetone '02: PC mkt faces overcapacity despite growth
22 May 2002 16:40 [Source: ICIS news]
MADRID (CNI)--Automotive glazing will become a significant future market for polycarbonate (PC) in the replacement of glass, predicted Hartmut Loewer, general manager, global marketing polycarbonates, Bayer.
Loewer, who was speaking here Wednesday at the ICIS-LOR Phenol/Acetone* conference, added that challenges in this market are to develop new coatings to give scratch resistance to PC and to integrate PC with other polymers and metals.
Worldwide PC consumption is expected to grow at 9%/year in the 2000-06 period from 1.9m tonne in 2001 to 3.0m in 2006, forecast Loewer. The strongest growth will be in Asia (excluding Japan) at 15%/year. Europe and North America will both see growth at 8%/year while Japan will only record 5% annual growth.
However, overcapacity is a problem for the PC industry with capacity utilisation rates at only 80-85% in 2003-04, said Loewer. Taking into account planned projects and delays in expansions, he expects capacity to reach 3.3m tonne/year in 2006, giving a capacity utilisation rate of 90%.
Strongest growth for polycarbonate will be seen in the optical storage market where consumption will double from 400 000 tonne in 2000 to 800 000 tonne in 2005. However, consumption of PC by media type will change.
The share of pre-recorded CDs will fall from 77% in 2000 to 34% by 2005. Recordable media, both CDs and DVDs, will grow from 19% in 2000 to 44% in 2005 while pre-recorded DVDs will jump from 4% to 22% in the same period.
The global sheet market is likely to grow at an average of 8%/year in 2001-06, predicted Loewer. Multi wall sheet, the major product in Europe, is growing faster than solid sheet, which dominates in America and the Far East.
Loewer noted that globalisation and consolidation is accelerating in the bottled water industry. Global demand for PC in this sector will increase from 70 000 tonne in 2001 to 100 000 tonne in 2006.
*The 2nd ICIS-LOR World Phenol/Acetone conference concludes tomorrow. ICIS-LOR is a sister company to CNI.
By: Peter Taffe
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