US presidential race a dead heat 10 weeks out

20 August 2008 19:58  [Source: ICIS news]

WASHINGTON (ICIS news)--The two US presidential candidates are in a dead heat just ten weeks from the election, but Republican John McCain has pulled ahead of Democrat Barack Obama among independents in part due to energy policy, pollsters said on Wednesday.

 

Leading pollsters for the Republicans and Democrats said their latest joint survey of US voters, conducted last week, shows Senator McCain of Arizona with 40% of the electorate to Illinois Senator Obama’s 39% with 21% of likely voters unsure.

 

“The bottom line is that the race is simply too close to call at this point,” said Brian Nienaber, vice president at the Republican polling firm Tarrance Group, Inc.

 

“The race is a dead heat and voter turnout will be the key,” said Celinda Lake, president of Democrat pollster firm Lake Research Partners.

 

Both candidates were said to have more or less secured the base of support among their respective party faithful, but Nienaber and Lake noted that McCain recently has made strong gains among independent voters who are considered key in the 4 November national elections.

 

Lake said that in a poll the two companies conducted in May this year, Obama led McCain by 14 points among independent voters but by last week McCain had taken a 10-point lead over his Democrat rival among voters not affiliated with either main party.

 

In addition, said Lake, 58% of independent voters polled said they feel favourable toward McCain while 51% said they view Obama favourably.

 

At a press conference on Wednesday, both Lake and Nienaber said part of McCain’s increased favourability among independent voters can be attributed to his energy policies. 

 

McCain supports expanded offshore drilling in US outer continental shelf (OCS) regions now closed to development under a congressional moratorium. 

 

That policy draws strong support among US chemical producers and other manufacturers who are dependent on natural gas as a feedstock and energy resource.

 

Obama is opposed to expanded offshore drilling and wants to impose a windfall profits tax on oil companies.

 

In the polling completed last week, Lake and Nienaber said 72% of voters support more offshore drilling, including a 58% majority who favour energy development in the controversial Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR) in Alaska.

 

In addition, 40% of voters polled said McCain is more likely to reduce US gasoline and energy prices against 37% who said Obama would do a better job in that area.  When this question was asked of likely voters in May this year, 50% thought Obama was more likely to fix US energy problems compared with 31% for McCain.

 

To discuss issues facing the chemical industry go to ICIS connect

By: Joe Kamalick
+1 713 525 2653

For the latest chemical news, data and analysis that directly impacts your business sign up for a free trial to ICIS news - the breaking online news service for the global chemical industry.

Get the facts and analysis behind the headlines from our market leading weekly magazine: sign up to a free trial to ICIS Chemical Business.

Printer Friendly