24 February 2009 16:14 [Source: ICIS news]
LONDON (ICIS news)--Global chemicals output could fall 6% this year with output from the EU, the US and Japan down by 8.25% and that from emerging markets flat, UK-based Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) said on Tuesday.
Chemicals output from the triad regions of the EU, US and ?xml:namespace>
Total chemicals output by
The national pattern in the triad in 2009 is likely to be similar to the end of 2008 with total German chemicals output down 10%.
Chemicals output fell more sharply that expected in the fourth quarter of 2009 with end use demand collapsing and customers de-stocking. Quarterly total chemicals output from the triad was down 6.1% and that from emerging markets down 4.3% quarter on quarter.
Countries heavily dependant on basic chemicals such as
“Within the triad pharmaceutical output may be 1% down this year while basic chemicals and man-made fibres will see the worst of the fall dropping by over 16%. Soaps and detergents will be protected from any major downturn but paints and other chemicals must await recovery in motors and construction before they improve significantly,” it added.
“In our view there still remains considerable downside to these numbers in the next couple of quarters with a significant probability then of a stronger recovery beyond that,” OEF consultant, Davis Thomas said.
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