World energy consumption to grow 44% by ’30 - EIA

27 May 2009 19:46  [Source: ICIS news]

WASHINGTON (ICIS news)--Global energy consumption will grow 44% over the 2006-2030 period with oil prices soon returning to triple digits as the worldwide recession ends and growth trends resume, the Energy Department said on Wednesday.

In its new international energy outlook, the department’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that while the recession dampened global demand for energy in the near term, energy consumption and pricing will again resume upward trends.

“In the longer term, with economic recovery anticipated after 2010, most nations return to trend growth in income and energy demand,” the administration said.

Fossil fuels, including petroleum, natural gas and coal, will continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide through the 2030 projection period, the administration said, assuming that current energy and environmental policies are maintained.

Driven by renewed energy demand growth, average world oil prices “are assumed to rebound and rise in real terms through 2030”, the agency said.

“The price of light sweet crude oil in the US (in real 2007 dollars) rises from $61/bbl in 2009 to $110/bbl in 2015 and $130/bbl in 2030,” the outlook said.

World use of petroleum and other liquids grows from 85m bbl/day in 2006 to 91m bbl/day in 2015 and 107m bbl/day by 2030, according to the EIA. The administration said it expects OPEC nations to meet much of that growth demand with non-OPEC producers making up the balance.

Natural gas consumption worldwide is expected to increase from 104,000bn cubic feet (bcf) in 2006 to 153,000 bcf by 2030, the outlook said.

“To meet the projected growth in demand for natural gas, the world’s producers will need to increase annual production in 2030 to a level that is 49,000 bcf higher than the 2006 total,” said EIA, with “much of the increase in natural gas production expected to come from non-OECD countries”.

Those are nations outside the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which is made up of the western industrialised nations plus Japan and Korea.

Within the OECD, natural gas production is expected to increase by 7,800 bcf in the 2006-2030 period, with the largest OECD natgas gains likely in the US at 5,300 bcf.

Within the US, much of the projected increase in natural gas production is from unconventional resources, such as tight sand formations and shale.

Natural gas is a major feedstock for the US petrochemicals industry.

The unconventional share of US natural gas production is expected to increase from 47% in 2006 to 56% by 2030, the report said.

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By: Joe Kamalick
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