24 March 2010 22:28 [Source: ICIS news]
HOUSTON (ICIS news)--The world economy, after suffering its worst downturn since the Great Depression, is now in a recovery with little chance of lapsing into a double-dip recession, an economist said on Wednesday.
The world’s economy will likely grow 3-4%/year through 2015, said Arved Teleki, chief economist for Chemical Market Associates Inc (CMAI), a consultancy.
Teleki made his comments during the CMAI World Petrochemical Conference in Houston.
Teleki said the business cycle was the most severe since the Great Depression, with the world economy actually shrinking at one point during the recession.
However, the recent downturn did not match the magnitude of the Great Depression, a forecast that Teleki made during last year's conference.
The world economy has resumed growing, although at a fitful and uneven rate, he said. Some parts of the world could possibly fall into a second recession – even while the overall global economy continues to grow.
Threats remain, Teleki said. Many consumers and corporations are still burdened by excessive debt.
Many governments have relied on heavy deficit spending, a trend that could be difficult to reverse, he said. Unemployment remains high in many parts of the world.
Nonetheless, by the second quarter of this year, the world economy should reach its previous peak, last reached in the third quarter of 2008, Teleki said. A more conservative projection puts the recovery at the fourth quarter of 2010.
In all, the global economy should grow by 3.4% this year, compared with a reduction of 2.1% in 2009.
For 2011, world economic growth should reach 3.7%, he said.
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