Forecasters raise Atlantic hurricane guidance, call for 18 storms

02 June 2010 16:14  [Source: ICIS news]

HOUSTON (ICIS news)--A team of US meteorologists raised its 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Wednesday, calling for a very active season with 18 named storms, including 10 hurricanes.

Of those 10 hurricanes, five were expected to develop into major hurricanes (winds of at least 111 miles/hour, or 179 km/hour), meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) said.

The estimates were up from the group’s April forecast of 15 named storms, which included eight hurricanes, out of which four would be major.

Forecasters were calling for an active season as a result of much warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and cooling tropical Pacific conditions, they said.

With much of the US petrochemical industry concentrated along the Gulf coast, hurricanes can disrupt offshore crude oil and natural gas production, cut off power and damage plants.

The threat of a hurricane can cause companies to shut down plants as a precaution. In 2008, Hurricane Ike caused several disruptions after making landfall near Houston in September.

The Colorado State team gave a 76% chance for a major hurricane to make US landfall, up from a 69% probability in April and a historical seasonal average of 52%.

Overall, historical averages are for 9.6 named storms, including 5.9 hurricanes.

Forecasters predicted storm activity in 2010 to be 195% of an average season, compared with 69% in 2009.

They noted that climate factors, including the expected development of a weak La Nina as a result of cooling tropical Pacific waters, were similar to conditions in 2005 – the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record.

In that year, hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma all grew to Category 5 (winds of at least 156 miles/hour) strength over Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico waters.

Forecasters noted that Gulf hurricanes passing to the west of the oil spill off the Louisiana coast could drive oil further toward the coast. However, the oil slick was not expected to impede the development of storms, they said.

The Colorado State team, which issues four seasonal forecasts per year along with a recap, said it would issue its final forecast update on 4 August.

The US National National Hurricane Center on Thursday predicted that 8-14 hurricanes would form this year in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

The Atlantic hurricane season began on 1 June and lasts until 30 November.

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By: Ben DuBose
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