China exports jump 44% in June; may slow in H2 '10 - analysts

12 July 2010 09:18  [Source: ICIS news]

GUANGZHOU (ICIS news)--China’s exports surged 44% year on year in June due to a recovery in global demand, but the strong numbers may not be sustained through the second half of 2010, analysts said on Monday.

The country's decision to remove tax rebates on exports, as well as an expected weakening of demand from Europe would weigh on China’s overall shipments, they added.

The world’s third-biggest economy exported $137bn (€108bn) worth goods in June, while its imports totalled $117bn, representing a 34% increase, based on latest data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) of China.

For the first six months of 2010, total exports rose 35% to $705bn, while imports were up 52.7% to $650bn, the GAC data showed.

China’s trade surplus had declined 42.5% year on year to $55bn in the January-June period, it added.

 “We estimate that exports had peaked last month with resilient international demand for Chinese goods and there would be a gradual decrease in the coming six months,” said Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at Beijing-based brokerage CITIC Securities.

Effective 15 July, China would cancel the tax rebates on exports of 406 products, including some chemicals. This could pull the export numbers down, Zhu said.

The country may also feel some repercussions from the ongoing eurozone debt crisis in terms of weaker demand for Chinese goods, he said.

China is a net importer of petrochemicals in Asia.

Based on official statistics, its polyester chips imports fell by a hefty 37% to 19,175 tonnes in June, while its imports of ABS resins eased 11% to 176,473 tonnes and its rubber imports slipped 15% to 248,227 tonnes.

Its crude imports, meanwhile, jumped 34% year on year to a record high of 22.3m tonnes last month.

($1 = €0.79)

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By: Fanny Zhang
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