Global economy to grow slowly in 2012 but Europe risks loom – IMF

17 April 2012 18:29  [Source: ICIS news]

HOUSTON (ICIS)--Global economic growth this year is expected to slow from 2011 and improve in 2013, but risks of a renewed crisis in Europe continue to loom large, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday.

World economic output was projected to grow by 3.5% in 2012 – down from close to 4% in 2011 – but would recover to 4.1% in 2013, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report.

IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said, “Our baseline is that growth is going to be slow in advanced economies; sustained, but not great, in emerging market and developing economies. But the risk of things turning bad again in Europe is high.”

In Europe, real GDP was projected to contract in the first half of 2012 but then start recovering, except in Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal, where recovery would only begin in 2013, the IMF said.

Europe would see growth of 0.2% in 2012 – down from 1.4% – in 2011 – and resume to 1.4% next year, the IMF predicted.

In North America, US economic growth was projected at 2.1% in 2012 – up from 1.7% in 2011 – and increase to 2.5% in 2012, reflecting ongoing fiscal consolidation and continued weakness in housing prices.

Overall growth in Asia would average 6.0%, with China slowing to 8.2% in 2012 from 9.2% in 2011, and India to 6.9% from 7.2% in 2011.

“Weaker external demand has dimmed the outlook for Asia,” the IMF said. “But resilient domestic demand in China, limited financial spillovers, room for policy easing and the capacity of Asian banks to step in as European banks deleverage suggest that the soft landing under way is likely to continue.”

Paul Hodges studies key influencers shaping the chemical industry in Chemicals and the Economy

By: Brian Ford
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