China Oct exports grow 11.6%, further strength doubted - analysts

12 November 2012 06:27  [Source: ICIS news]

By Fanny Zhang

China Oct exports grow 11.6%, further strength doubted - analystsSINGAPORE (ICIS)--China’s exports grew at double-digits in October with the pace of increase accelerating for the past three month, but the strong growth momentum may not be sustained as its major trading partners continue to struggle with their own economic and financial ills, analysts said on Monday.

The country’s overseas shipments in October totaled $175.6bn (€138.7bn), with the year-on-year growth at 11.6% – the first double-digit growth seen since July, official data showed.

In September, annual exports growth was at 9.9% – rising from 2.7% in August.

The rebound in recent months can be considered as a short-term phenomenon and may not continue into the coming months as the world economy has yet to recover, analysts said.

“Although the October export is better than expected, we think it’s mainly driven by Christmas orders and therefore, not sustainable,” said Zhang Junfeng, senior analyst at Shenzhen-based China Merchants Securities.

“US imports may soften in coming months amid the ‘fiscal cliff’, while [the] eurozone is still contracting,” he said, adding that under these circumstances, Chinese exports recovery will likely lose steam.

China’s commerce minister Chen Deming said the “many uncertainties in [the] international economies” spell “tough times” for Chinese exports in the coming months into next year.

Chen said that China may not be able to achieve its 10% export growth target this year. In the first 10 months of the year, the country’s exports were up by an average of 6.3% from the same period in 2011.

China’s trade surplus in October widened to $32.0bn from September’s $27.7bn, with total imports valued at $143.6bn, up by 2.4% year on year, official data showed.

The country, which is the world's second biggest economy, imported 23.7m tonnes of crude in October – the second highest on record after the 25.5m tonnes registered in May 2012. China is also a major importer of petrochemicals in Asia.

 

 

October 2012

Jan-Oct 2012

 

'000 tonnes

chg % (y-o-y)

'000 tonnes

chg % (y-o-y)

Imports

 

 

 

 

Crude

23,680

13.8

224,070

7.1

Oil products

3,200

10.0

32,170

-3.1

Primary shape plastics

1,920

10.3

19,610

3.8

ABS resins

131

0.6

1,404

-8.9

Polyester chips

     12

-25.2

156

-5

Natural rubber

    170

-22.7

1,750

5.6

Synthetic rubber

    125

24.8

1,197

0.5

Exports

Crude

350

250.0

2,230

8.6

Oil products

1,830

15.1

19,620

-7.9

Plastic products

716

14.0

7,047

8.4

Source: China Customs


($1 = €0.79)

Read John Richardson and Malini Hariharan’s blog – Asian Chemical Connections


By: Fanny Zhang
+65 6780 4359



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