2012 global oil demand falls on continuing economic weakness – IEA

13 November 2012 12:48  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--Persistent economic weakness in Europe and the impact of post-tropical storm Sandy in the US has led the International Energy Agency (IEA) to lower its global oil demand forecast for 2012.

In its latest monthly oil market report, the organisation lowered its forecast by 60,000 bbl/day, estimating 2012 global demand now to be at 670,000 bbl/day.

The IEA also reduced its fourth-quarter 2012 growth forecast by 290,000 bbl/day from its previous estimates, to 90.1m bbl/day.

Following seasonal maintenance and weather disruptions throughout September, supplies from non-OPEC nations rebounded by 840,000 bbl/day in October to reach 53.4m bbl/day, the IEA said.

The organisation also reported that OPEC crude oil supplies hit a nine-month low in October to reach 31.15m bbl/day – a decline of 30,000 bbl/day.

“The call on OPEC crude and stock change for [the fourth quarter of 2012] has been lowered by 500,000 bbl/day to 30m bbl/day, due to a weaker demand outlook and a stronger forecast of non-OPEC supply,” the report said.

September Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) total commercial oil inventories increased by a counter-seasonal 15.2m bbl, while preliminary data indicate that OECD oil stocks rose by 5.5m bbl in October, the IEA added.

Recovering Chinese refinery runs and strong OECD margins led global refinery throughputs to average 75.9m bbl/day during the third quarter of 2012, however, a “seasonal dip” led the IEA to project fourth-quarter 2012 runs at 75.5m bbl/day.

The report follows the release of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook on Monday, which predicts the US to overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, as it discovers more of its own unconventional oil reserves.

By: Neha Popat
+44 208 652 3214

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