Dow expects China GDP growth of 6-7% in 2013 – CEO Liveris

03 December 2012 19:55  [Source: ICIS news]

NEW YORK (ICIS)--US-based Dow Chemical expects China GDP growth of 6-7% in 2013, its chief executive said on Monday.

“In the past few weeks we have seen an uptick in China activity as small and medium-sized companies are getting more liquidity and manufacturing indices are turning positive,” said Andrew Liveris at a media event at Dow’s annual investor day meeting.

“We are not planning on any big bounce-back but are beginning to see better buying patterns emerge, and would expect 6-7% economic growth in China in 2013 – still less than in previous years,” he added.

For China, the GDP multiplier for chemical demand has historically been 1.5-2 times, with polyethylene (PE) at 2 times, Liveris noted.

The pick-up in China demand has been apparent in plastic films for packaging, he said.

“We had been used to double-digit growth [in chemical demand] but in the past six months that slowed to stopped,” said Liveris.

The low point in China was in April-June when demand growth was at around 2%, noted Deutsche Bank analyst David Begleiter, who met with Liveris, in a research note on 29 November.

The CEO projects global GDP growth of 2.5% in 2012, with the US at around 2.2% or higher, depending on the resolution of the fiscal cliff.

The US fiscal cliff refers to automatic spending cuts and tax hikes amounting to between $600bn-800bn (€462bn-€616bn), starting on 1 January, if the president and Congress cannot come to an agreement on economic policy.

($1 = €0.77)

By: Joseph Chang
+1 713 525 2653

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