04 February 2013 19:52 [Source: ICIS news]
By Joseph Chang
NEW YORK (ICIS)--Unlimited US exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) could impact domestic supplies of natural gas liquids (NGLs), causing volatility in pricing for the key feedstock for US petrochemical producers, a Dow Chemical executive said on Monday.
“We support LNG exports, but our concern is with an unchecked level of exports. This has the capacity to drive up prices significantly and reintroduce volatility in gas prices and NGLs,” said Kevin Kolevar, vice president of government affairs and public policy at US-based Dow Chemical.
“The fact that so much capacity is being planned to come on in a compressed timeframe causes concern,” he added.
Dow estimates that over a 10-year timeframe, the US could export up to 5-6bn cubic feet/day (bcf) of natural gas through LNG without disrupting the market if that capacity comes on in a linear fashion.
That would amount to 38-46m tonnes/year of LNG.
Yet, there is a total of 154.9m tonnes/year of LNG export capacity being planned in the US, according to an ICIS analysis.
And for those companies that have already announced completion dates in the US from 2015-2018, this amounts to 85.5m tonnes/year.
“It is all about predictability. In the late 1990s, we saw tremendous volatility in natural gas prices, which deterred investment in the chemical sector,” Kolevar said.
“But now Dow is back with $4bn in planned investments in the US Gulf, and there is also about $95bn in other manufacturing projects in the US being driven by affordable fuel and feeds. That could introduce 5m new jobs by 2020,” said the executive.
“The upside to doing this right should be huge, and a win-win for all – the oil and gas producers, the manufacturing sector and for consumers,” he added.
“We support a balanced level of LNG exports, which will drive production and access to NGLs. But it is not a given that NGLs will always be stripped out prior to shipping,” he said.
“For example, Japan has specs for wet gas concentrate in LNG. And to what extent would other countries look to use wet gas? We have not heard assurances from the oil and gas community that they would strip out the NGLs,” he added.
Already, Switzerland-headquartered INEOS is planning to ship ethane in LNG carriers from Marcus Hook, Pennsylvannia, US, to its cracker in Rafnes, Norway, by 2015, but that is specifically for petrochemical production rather than for fuel – the primary use of LNG.
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