06 June 2013 16:08 [Source: ICIS news]
TORONTO (ICIS)--Canada’s oil production will more than double by 2030, despite pipeline capacity constraints, according to a forecast on Thursday.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) forecast the country's oil production at 6.7m bbl/day by 2030, compared with 3.2m bbl/day in 2012.
Oil sands production is forecast at 5.2m bbl/day by 2030, up from 1.8m bbl/day in 2012.
CAPP also said that while oil pipeline transportation capacity is tight, there have been no reports that this resulted in shut-ins of Canadian production.
Meanwhile, "protracted approval processes" for new pipeline projects triggered "creative transportation proposals" to access markets, including plans to ship more oil by rail, CAPP said.
CAPP did not specifically comment on the approval process in the US for the long-delayed Keystone XL pipeline project, which would, if realised, enable supplies of western Canadian oil to reach refineries on the US Gulf Coast.
In its forecast, CAPP assumes that Keystone XL – if approved – could be in service in 2015 with a capacity of 830,000 bbl/day.
Another key project, the Northern Gateway oil pipeline from Alberta to the British Columbia coast, could be in service in 2017, with a capacity of 525,000 bbl/day, CAPP said.
The British Columbia provincial government last week rejected Northern Gateway, saying that the project, as proposed, did not meet a number of conditions, in particular with regard to oil spills and oil spill response.
Canada’s federal regulator, the National Energy Board, is expected to issue its ruling on Northern Gateway in December.
"Western Canadian supplies are essentially landlocked and will need additional transportation infrastructure to bring this growing oil supply to markets", CAPP said.
"Timely regulatory decisions" on new pipeline projects would help Canada’s international competitiveness and attract investment, it added.
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