US shale oil ‘bonanza’ has not shifted global trends yet: analyst

18 June 2013 23:17  [Source: ICIS news]

US shale oil ‘bonanza’ hasn’t shifted global trends yet: analystWASHINGTON (ICIS)--Despite increased production and outlooks for US shale gas plays in the coming years, it is still too early for shale trends to impact the global market, industry analysts said on Tuesday.

“When we look at product imports through time, the US used to be a large gasoline and distillate importer,” said John Powell of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) during its 2013 Energy Conference. “Currently with large amounts of tight oil, US refiners have exports as the next level of demand since US demand is not sufficient.”

However, these are very early days in terms of the global impact and what will happen in the rest of the world.

“Tight oil is driving US crude oil production toward 8m bbl/day and probably through that,” said Andrew Slaughter of IHS during a panel discussion. “Deepwater and conventional oils are still there so we mustn’t forget those, but tight [oil] is where growth is for the next 20 years.”

Chaos in the futures markets of conventional oil in the US, which is not as liquid as it was five to six years ago on more producer hedging, has also paved the way for more shale oil to flood the market.

But, according to Jan Stuart of Credit Suisse, the US tight oil bonanza isn’t shifting global trends just yet.

“Overall, even in the high price era, efficiency has been overwhelmed by rising standards of living and demographics,” he said.

According to Stuart, conventional oil futures markets are not perfect, but they do reflect supply and demand in the end.

The EIA 2013 Energy Conference runs through Tuesday.

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By: Anna Matherne
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