OPEC raises its 2013 world oil demand growth forecast

10 September 2013 12:34  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--OPEC in its latest monthly oil report on Tuesday revised its world oil demand growth forecast for 2013 up by 25,000 bbl/day to 820,000 bbl/day.

The slight upward revision reflects a positive outlook for some OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) economies, particularly the US, UK and Germany, and higher-than-expected actual oil demand data for the first half of 2013.

“The bulk of the positive revision came from the OECD regions as a result of better-than-expected market sentiment,” OPEC said.

Economic growth in the US this year was revised up to 1.7% from 1.6%, however, the 2014 outlook for the US economy remains unchanged at 2.5% growth.

OPEC also noted the return to growth in the eurozone’s second-quarter GDP, which rose 0.3% quarter on quarter. The forecast for the eurozone’s economy in 2013 now stands at a better-than-expected contraction of 0.5% from minus 0.6%, while the forecast for 2014 remains unchanged at a growth rate at 0.6%.

Expectations for China’s economic growth has held steady for 2013 and 2014 at 7.40% and 7.70% respectively, but Japan’s economy in 2013, despite recent gains and its large monetary easing programme, was revised down to 1.7% from 1.9%.

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to rise by 1.10m bbl/day in 2013 on expected gains in the US, Canada, South Sudan, Sudan, Russia, China and Columbia, OPEC said. However, oil supply from Syria, Norway, UK and Australia is forecast to decline.

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2014 is expected to grow to 1.20m bbl/day, it added.

The report also showed that OPEC oil supply in August fell by 124,000 bbl/day from the previous month to 30.23m bbl/day, according to non-OPEC sources.

Demand for OPEC crude is forecast to average 29.90m bbl/day in 2013, which is unchanged from the previous months’ forecast. However, the figure is 500,000 bbl/day lower when compared with the level in 2012.

The declining trend is also expected to continue into 2014, where OPEC forecasts demand for its oil to fall to 29.60m bbl/day.

By: Kawai Wong
+44 20 8652 3214

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