IEA estimates Aug global oil supply to have fallen by 770,000 bbl/day

12 September 2013 11:20  [Source: ICIS news]

IEALONDON (ICIS)--Global oil supply in August is estimated to have fallen by 770,000 bbl/day from July to 91.59m bbl/day, with monthly declines being registered for both non-OPEC and OPEC crude supplies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

Non-OPEC supplies fell by 510,000 bbl/day in August to 54.51m bbl/day as "declines in the North Sea, shut-in production in China due to flooding, and offshore maintenance in Kazakhstan and Ghana" offset continued expansion of output in the US and Canada, the IEA said.

Supplies of OPEC crude oil also fell in August on the back of a sharp downturn in Libyan production. This was partially offset by near-record output from Saudi Arabia.

The IEA in its report said August OPEC output was pegged at 30.51m bbl/day, down by 260,000 bbl/day.

The IEA’s  forecast of global demand growth remains flat at 895,000 bbl/day for 2013, “as stronger-than-expected deliveries in July offset concerns about the demand impact of currency fluctuations in emerging market economies”.

In 2014, demand growth is forecast to pick up to 1.1m bbl/day, as underlying macroeconomic conditions improve.

The IEA also reported refinery crude throughputs reached a seasonal peak in July, at an estimated 78.2m bbl/day, which is 1.8m bbl/day above year-earlier levels.

“Runs are set to fall from August onwards, as refiners scale back throughputs due both to planned maintenance and a weakening margin environment. Recent crude price increases have largely outpaced gains in refined product prices, curbing refinery margins and spurring talk of economic run cuts in Europe and Asia,” the IEA said.

“At the same time, refinery maintenance in Europe and Russia is expected to slash crude demand in those regions by a combined 2m bbl/day in both September and October. The scheduled shutdowns, at a time when regional crude supply faces shortfalls from Libya, Iraq and the North Sea, eases somewhat the strain of sourcing alternative feedstocks,” it added.

By: Franco Capaldo
+44 (0)20 8652 3214

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