PODCAST: Europe naphtha buyers face price premiums as they avoid Russian supplies

Author: Will Beacham


BARCELONA (ICIS)--The invasion of Ukraine means that naphtha buyers in Europe will have to pay a premium as they seek alternatives to Russian supplies.

  • In 2021, Russia supplied 44% of Europe’s naphtha imports, 20% of consumption
  • Europe naphtha buyers face paying a premium for alternative supplies
  • European refiners will have to invest to reduce their reliance on Russian crude
  • Net zero agenda should cut demand for oil, to make Russian phase out easier
  • Pre-Ukraine conflict, Russia exported 4.5-5m bbl/day globally, 2.5m bbl/day to Europe
  • Russian oil exports cut by 1.6m bbl/day since Ukraine
  • Prices fall after EU declined to ban Russian oil imports
  • China COVID-19 lockdowns push prices down further
  • New ICIS forecast is for $110/bbl in second quarter
  • Forecast for 10% increase in third quarter
  • Lower demand will see a fourth quarter decline
  • China’s economy faces multiple challenges
  • Deep operating rate cuts in China polypropylene (PP)

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS senior consultant for Asia John Richardson, ICIS senior oil analyst Ajay Parmar and Michael Connolly, ICIS principal analyst for oil refining.

Click here to listen to the podcast

Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

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