SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Japanese yen (Y) fell to an all-time low on Friday after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held interest rates near zero despite rising pressure to support a weakening currency. Yen trades at above Y156 against US dollar BoJ last intervened in forex market in September 2022 Tokyo March consumer inflation eases At 09:07 GMT, the yen was trading at Y156.52 against the US dollar, off the intra-day low of Y156.81, as Japan’s central bank maintained its benchmark policy rate at 0%-0.1% as widely expected. This marked the weakest the yen had been since August 1990​ when it tumbled to around Y150 to the dollar. A weaker yen is a boon for Japanese exporters, making their products competitive in overseas markets, but translates to higher import costs, thereby dampening consumer spending, and hurting smaller businesses, which are struggling to raise wages. With the exchange rate crossing the key Y155 mark, markets are on high alert for some form of or even direct intervention from the central bank. The BoJ last intervened in the foreign exchange market in September 2022, when the yen tumbled to Y145.90 yen against the greenback. “Now that USD/JPY has glided through the 155 level, markets are now on high alert for Japanese FX [foreign exchange] intervention. Recall that 155 had been the level that many in the Japanese banking community had felt would elicit BoJ FX selling operations,” said Chris Turner, ING’s global head of markets and regional head of research for UK and central and eastern Europe. “If and when the BOJ does come in – the amounts could be sizable. However, intervention can at most slow the USD/JPY advance – unless that is the broad dollar trend reverses.” The US, Japan and South Korea on 17 April aired serious concerns over the heavy depreciation of the yen and the Korean won, agreeing  to consult closely on matters relating to exchange rate movement. The trilateral gathering, attended by US treasury secretary Janet Yellen, Japanese finance minister Shunichi Suzuki and South Korean finance minister Choi Sang-mok, was held on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and Group of 20 (G20) finance leaders’ meetings in Washington. The Japanese yen has continued to slide despite the BoJ’s historic monetary policy shift in March, when the central bank hiked interest rates for the first time in two decades, ending eight years of negative interest rates. The decision to abandon negative rates signaled a growing confidence that Japan was finally emerging from a period of falling prices or deflation. In a report released on Friday, the BoJ said that it expects core consumer inflation to average 2.8% for the year ending March 2025, before easing to 1.9% in the following fiscal year. The central bank has a 2% inflation target. Latest data out of Japan’s capital of Tokyo showed that consumer inflation in April eased to 1.6% from 2.4% in March, official data showed. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Siam Cement Group (SCG) posted an 85% year-on-year decline in Q1 net profit on losses from chemicals operations, but the Thai conglomerate expects the segment’s earnings to recover in H2 on improved olefins demand and expected restart of its Vietnam petrochemical complex. H2 conditions to improve on chemicals recovery Long Son Petrochemicals complex restart targeted in July Olefins prices to stabilize in Q2, recover later in 2024 In Thai baht (Bt) million Q1 2024 Q1 2023 % Change Revenue from sales 124,266 128,748 -3.5 EBITDA 12,623 12,170 3.7 Net profit 2,425 16,526 -85.3 *Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization First-quarter EBITDA increased on higher contribution of businesses related to cement and construction. The company’s listed SCG Packaging (SCGP) subsidiary, meanwhile, posted a 15% year-on-year increase in EBITDA to Bt5.2 billion as sales rose by 1% to Bt34.0 billion. Chemicals results in Bt million Q1 2024 Q1 2023 % Change Revenue from sales 45,376 46,805 -3.1 EBITDA 1,289 2,445 -47.3 Net profit -1,866 1,356  – Petrochemicals demand remained weak in the first quarter due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and weak global economic conditions, the company said in a filing to the Stock Exchange of Thailand on 24 April. The first-quarter loss in the chemicals business, however, was mainly due to lower equity income from associates and start-up expenses of the company’s Long Son Petrochemicals Complex (LSP) in Vietnam. Its 100%-owned integrated petrochemical complex completed initial test-runs early this year but was shut in March due to equipment issues and will remain down up to June. SCG expects to restart the facility in July for the final test run, followed by commercial operations beginning August 2024. In the first quarter, the company sold around 306,000 tonnes of both polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) products, down 22% year on year following the shutdown at Rayong Olefins’ (ROC) cracker. SCG now expects olefins demand to improve gradually in the second half of 2024 as supply in the region is expected to be limited due to a series of planned maintenance, particularly in China and southeast Asia. It expects stable olefins prices in the second quarter and a recovery in the latter half of 2024 as demand growth is expected to exceed capacity additions. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand in Asia continues to face challenges due to the persistent real estate crisis in China, while supply is impacted by high inventory in China resulting in more exports to Asia. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman ($1 = Bt37.05)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Indonesia’s central bank has unexpectedly raised its key interest rate to stabilize its slumping currency – the rupiah (Rp) – against the strong US dollar, with further monetary tightening likely given high possibility of worsening global risks. Central bank move prompted by rupiah’s fall to lowest since 2020 Strong US dollar sends global currencies tumbling 2024 GDP growth forecast at 4.7-5.5% At 02:45 GMT, the rupiah was trading at Rp16,223 against the US dollar, easing from a four-year low of Rp16,316 hit on 17 April. On 24 April, Bank Indonesia (BI) hiked its seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to its highest since 2016 at 6.25%, and also raised its overnight deposit and lending rates by a quarter point to 5.50% and 7.00%, respectively. “Bank Indonesia continues orienting exchange rate policy towards maintaining rupiah stability against the impact of broad-based US dollar appreciation,” the central bank said in a statement. RATE HIKES MAY CONTINUE AMID RUPIAH WEAKNESS The rupiah, along with other currencies in Asia, has been tumbling against the US dollar, which is being supported by higher-for-longer interest-rate stance of the US Federal Reserve. The US dollar is also generally considered a “safe haven” for investors in times of global economic distress. From the start of the year to 23 April, the rupiah tumbled against the US dollar by 5.1%, according to Bank Indonesia, noting that the depreciation was less severe compared with the Thai baht’s 6.6% fall, the South Korean won’s 7.9% plunge and the Japanese yen’s 8.9% slump over the same period. “The key message delivered by BI was that developments in the global economy have changed rapidly alongside heightened risks and uncertainties especially due to the shifting stance of the Fed’s rate policy and deteriorating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,” Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research said in a note. BI has been intervening to stabilize the rupiah, which slumped to its lowest since 2020 around mid-April as the US Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates anytime soon while escalated tensions in the Middle East continue. The Indonesian central bank’s April monetary policy decision, like in October last year, was in response to recent foreign exchange (FX) weakness amid worsening external conditions, it said. In October 2023, the central bank had issued an urgent 25bps interest rate hike. It deemed the move a “pre-emptive and forward-looking step” to reduce the impact on imported inflation and ensure headline inflation remains within its 1.5-3.5% target. In March, Indonesia’s inflation was higher than expected at 3.05%. “We think today’s decision was a hawkish hike, and the rationale provided by BI underscores that its strong focus on FX stability remains in place,” Japan’s Nomura Global Markets Research said in a note. “We believe if the external backdrop does not improve and IDR [Indonesian rupiah] pressures persist, this may not yet be the end of BI’s hiking cycle.” GDP ON TRACK FOR SOLID GROWTH Southeast Asia’s biggest economy remains resilient despite the build-up of global uncertainty, BI said in a statement, with average growth in the first two quarters of 2024 likely to exceed the 5.04% expansion in Q4 2023. The central bank forecasts a 4.7-5.5% GDP growth in 2024, compared with the actual 5.04% expansion rate posted the previous year. “Goods exports remain unfazed by declining commodity exports given lower international commodity prices and weak demand from Indonesia’s main trading partners, such as China,” it said. Indonesia has been in trade surplus for the 47th consecutive month in March. The trade surplus for the month at $4.5 billion represents more than a fivefold increase from February’s $800 million. On a month-on-month basis, March exports increased by 16.4%, the first monthly growth this year, supported by the acceleration of non-oil and gas (non-OG) exports, particularly in crude palm oil (CPO), coal, and steel commodities. On a year-on-year basis, however, March exports were down 4.2% to $22.4 billion, but the rate of decline was narrower than February’s 9.6%; while imports fell by 12.8% to $18 billion. Indonesia is one of the biggest net importers of petrochemicals in southeast Asia, fulfilling around half of its PE and PP requirements respectively through imports, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

LONDON (ICIS)–Lower pricing across most business divisions drove a 12.4% drop in BASF’s first-quarter net income year on year, with the chemicals major maintaining full-year guidance as sector demand shows early signs of recovery. in € million Q1 2024 Q1 2023 % Change Sales 17,553 19,991 -12.2 Income from operations before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) 2,655 2,811 -5.6 Income from operations (EBIT) 1,689 1,867 -9.5 Net income 1,368 1,562 -12.4 The decline in sales was mainly driven by “considerably reduced prices” as a result of lower raw materials and energy prices in almost all segments as well as lower precious metal prices in the Surface Technologies segment, the company said in a statement. Despite across the board sales drops, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) firmed for most units other than surface technologies, which posted an 11.5% decline year on year to €327 million. The company saw strongest profitability increases for the materials and nutrition and care divisions, which saw EBITDA increase 21.8% and 37% respectively during the quarter, to €549 million and €261 million. Negative currency effects contributed to the sales decrease in all segments. Q1 EBITDA, adjusted for one-off items, fell by 5.3% year on year to €2.7 billion. Despite the decline in sales, the Germany-based producer projects that EBITDA before special items for 2024 will be between €8.0 billion and €8.6 billion this year, up from €7.67 billion in 2023 and in line with earlier forecasts. Chemicals demand growth in the first three months of 2024 was stronger than levels for the wider industrial sector due to customer restocking, after an extended period of low reserves. “The global chemical industry recovered slightly in the first quarter of 2024. It grew considerably faster than overall industrial production because the customer industries somewhat restocked their very low inventories,” BASF said. The announcement comes as Martin Kamieth steps into the role of BASF CEO, succeeding Martin Brudermuller. A 36-year veteran of the company, Kamieth steps into the CEO role at a point where the company is preparing to cut costs by €1 billion at its Ludwigshafen headquarters, with the form of those cuts and any closures to ensue yet to be announced. Speaking at today’s shareholders’ meeting outgoing CEO Brudemuller acknowledged the challenges facing BASF and Europe’s chemical sector. He spoke about the difficult choices which will have to be taken at the company’s flagship Ludwigshafen Verbund site, adding: “Ludwigshafen will remain BASF’s largest site and should be the leading chemical site in Europe.” The company expects global GDP growth of 2.3%, substantially below IMF forecasts this month of 3.2%. The trend of chemicals demand slightly outpacing general industrial output growth is also expected to continue, according to the company, which forecasts industrial production increases of 2.2% compared to 2.7% for the sector. Despite recent volatility in crude oil pricing on the back of escalated tensions between Israel and Iran, which pushed Brent costs above $90/barrel, the company continues to project average values of $80/barrel for the year. Additional reporting by Nurluqman Suratman and Will BeachamThumbnail photo: BASF’s Ludwigshafen, Germany headquarters (Source: BASF) (Update releads, adds detail throughout)

LONDON (ICIS)–On 19 April 2024, the UK government’s hydrogen support scheme Hydrogen Allocation Round 2 (HAR2) closed for applications. To review the support programme and the current position of the UK hydrogen market, ICIS hydrogen editor Jake Stones speaks with hydrogen consultant and demand-side project manager Duncan Yellen. Over the conversation, Yellen outlines: Potential challenges facing the UK’s hydrogen development plans The best markets for selling hydrogen today and their price points What is the impact of transporting hydrogen When can a tradeable hydrogen market emerge?

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Latin America’s take-up of electric vehicles (EVs) has started to gain momentum, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) this week, with Chinese producers drawing customers with sharply lower prices than western, established brands. Globally, electric car sales stood at 14 million in 2023. The IEA predicts this could reach around 17 million in 2024, more than one in five cars sold worldwide. In the IEA words, these figures are already showing the update in EVs is “shifting from early adopters to the mass market.” Comparatively, Latin America’s numbers are still very low, however, with EV sales in 2023 at 90,000 units, according to the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2024, its annual report on the industry. In Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy with 215 million people, sales stood at 50,000 units in 2023, which tripled 2022 sales but still represented just 3% of the market. In Mexico, a 130-million-strong country, EV sales in 2023 stood at 15,000, up 80% year on year but still only a market share of just over 1%. Elon Musk’s Tesla reported on Wednesday that Q1 sales and earnings had fallen fell due to increased competition from hybrid models. Meanwhile, China’s EV market has grown exponentially in just a decade as the state helped to ensure firms could compete in favourable conditions. The government took the decision to strongly develop its EV sector, with billions of dollars spent in subsidies over the last decade and a half, and now western players are playing catch up. BRAZIL ETHANOL EXCEPTIONAs well as Europe and the US, another key automotive market for EVs was Brazil. There, however, producers at least had a green fuel to justify their inaction: ethanol, which since the 1970s started to transform Brazil’s transport emissions landscape, although at the time the decision was mostly taken to avoid oil shocks the world had just witnessed. By the 2010s, when the key Paris Accord and successive upgrades to it were agreed, Brazil had already achieved some of the targets for transport emissions reductions. The country’s growing role as one of the world’s breadbaskets and ethanol-powered cars are, of course, related. Transport is going electric, however, and there are some attempts from western established players to start closing Brazil’s gap with the rest of the world – as well as the Chinese producers’ presence. “Growth in Brazil was underpinned by the entry of Chinese carmakers, such as BYD, Great Wall, and Chery, [whose models] immediately ranked among the best-selling models in 2023. Road transport electrification in Brazil could bring significant climate benefits given the largely low-emissions power mix, as well as reducing local air pollution,” said the IEA. “Today, biofuels are important alternative fuels available at competitive cost and aligned with the existing refuelling infrastructure. Brazil remains the world’s largest producer of sugar cane, and its agribusiness represents about one-fourth of GDP.” The Brazilian government approved at the end of 2023 the so-called Green Mobility and Innovation Programme, which provides tax incentives for companies to develop and manufacture low-emissions road transport technology, with nearly Brazilian reais (R) 19.0 billion ($4.0 billion) to be deployed up to 2028. Several major automotive producers do commercialise hybrid ethanol-electric models, but all-electric models have been more elusive. In comes China, again. BYD said earlier this year it plans to invest $600 million in a new plant in Brazil, its first outside Asia, aiming to produce 150,000 units per year. General Motors, long established in Brazil, also said around the same time it was to invest $1.4 billion up to 2028 at its Brazil facilities to implement a “complete renewal” of its vehicle portfolio, focusing on EVs. Stellantis – the company resulting from the merger of Italian-American conglomerate Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and France’s PSA Group – said recently it would invest €5.6 billion up to 2030 in South America, with most of the funds channelled to its Brazilian operations. These investments, overall, have given the beleaguered Brazilian automotive sector the impetus to potentially recover part of its old glory. Just a decade ago, Brazil produced well over 3 million cars per year. In 2023, it produced 2.3 million. But Chinese producers’ strong entry into Brazil’s market – as well as Mexico’s – could have lasting consequences for consumption patterns. Earlier in April, a source at a chemicals producer in Brazil, for whom the established producers are a key customer, conceded with some apprehension it had just purchased a China-made car. “Chinese brands are newcomers and as such they are disrupting the market with lower prices. I paid for my electric car around R150,000 [$29,200], but some of the established brands are selling their EV models for well over R200,000,” the source said. While inaccessible for most Brazilians, where the minimum monthly wage stands at R1412 ($275), those who can afford SUVs are increasingly turning their eyes to Chinese brands. “They are good cars, and the prices are just so competitive – the choice for me was clear,” the source concluded. According to automotive publications, the cheapest EV car sold in Brazil, at R120,000, is manufactured by Chery Automobile, a state-owned Chinese manufacturer which is the third largest in its home market. CHINA MOVES INTO MEXICOChina’s approach to subsidising its EV industry is causing concern, especially in the US, now also in a race to prop up its own EV sector. Twenty Chinese EV companies have set up operations in Mexico, which is part of the tariff-free North American trade deal USCMA between Mexico, the US, and Canada. Washington fears Mexico could act as the gate of entry into the USMCA free trade zone after the US imposed hefty tariffs in most EV-related Chinese goods, precisely because of the generous state support they enjoy at home. Last week, Mexican media reported how the US had put pressure on Mexico to withdraw subsidies or any other Federal or state support for Chinese EV manufacturers; Mexican states are in a race to attract foreign direct investment (FID) in manufacturing, tapping into the nearshoring trend. Also last week, the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors (AMDA) showed its concerns about Chinese firms “invading” the country’s automotive sector, according to a report in ABC Noticias. Since 2020, Chinese-manufactured products and brands have gained traction among Mexican consumers, capturing 8.2% of sales during the first quarter of 2024. Guillermo Rosales Zarate, AMDA’s president, said this influx had played a pivotal role in the industry’s recovery following the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, but the polite words stopped there. AMDA published a report, compiled with official data from Mexico’s statistical office Inegi, which showed the sharp increase in China-made automotive parts and vehicles now present in the market. “In this first quarter, the sale of products imported from China, manufactured in China and imported into the Mexican market, and sold through the various participating brands, already represents 19.2%,” said Cristina Vázquez Ruiz, coordinator of economic studies at AMDA. “If we extract Chinese brands from this percentage, this would represent 8.2% [of car sales in Mexico].” The IEA in its annual report stayed away from this controversy. The IEA is a lobby group which advocates for greener technologies and decarbonisation, as most of its key member countries – and financiers – lack the traditional energy sources of their own: the green transition for most of them is a simply a strategic must do. “Given its proximity to the US, Mexico’s automotive market is already well integrated with North American partners, and benefits from advantageous trade agreements, large existing manufacturing capacity, and eligibility for subsidies under the IRA [US regulation propping up green investments],” said the IEA. “As a result, local EV supply chains are developing quickly, with expectations that this will spill over into domestic markets. Tesla, Ford, Stellantis, BMW, GM, Volkswagen (VW), and Audi have all either started manufacturing or announced plans to manufacture EVs in Mexico.” Elsewhere in Latin America, EVs update has been rather poor. In Colombia, a country of 50 million, sales in 2023 stood at 6,000 units. In Costa Rica, with a population of five million, sales stood at 5,000 units. The IEA did not have date for other countries in the region. ELECTRIC BUSES STRONGERUptake of electric buses in Latin America, especially in urban areas where much of the investments required come from public or semi-public entities, has been stronger. City buses are easier to electrify than long-distance coaches thanks to their relatively fixed driving patterns and lower daily travel distances. Once again, Chinese manufacturers are exporting “large volumes” of electric buses, accounting for over 85% of electric city bus deployments in Latin America, said the IEA. “Cities across Latin America, such as Bogota and Santiago, have deployed nearly 6,500 electric buses to date. There are also longer-standing programmes, such as the Zero Emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator partnership that was launched in 2019 to accelerate the deployment of zero-emission buses in major Latin American cities,” it added. “Buenos Aires is targeting a 50% zero emission bus fleet by 2030, and a wider study of 32 Latin American cities expects that 25,000 electric buses will be deployed by 2030, and 55,000 by 2050.” Globally, almost 50,000 electric buses were sold in 2023, equating to 3% of total bus sales and bringing the global stock to approximately 635,000, concluded the IEA. Front page picture: EV charging points. Source: Shutterstock Insight by Jonathan Lopez

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd (BEPL) plans to nearly triple its acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) capacity at Abu Road in the northwestern Rajasthan state to 200,000 tonnes/year by March 2026. The plant’s current capacity is 70,000 tonnes/year. The company has determined that a bigger expansion than initially planned is possible after awarding work on the expansion to Japan’s Toyo Engineering, it said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) on 20 April. In January 2024, BSEL had proposed a capacity expansion to 145,000 tonnes/year. “After [a] detailed analysis [by Toyo Engineering] it was concluded that overall ABS capacity of 200,000 tonnes/year can be achieved and will be a better option compared to the earlier proposal,” BEPL said. The expansion project will be funded through internal accruals, it said, adding that cost of the expansion project will be finalised by June.

TORONTO (ICIS)–Following the conclusion of a consultation period, Canada’s federal government has published a formal notice in the Canada Gazette for its planned Federal Plastics Registry. The registry will require plastic resin manufacturers, producers of plastic products and service providers to annually report on the amounts and types of plastic they put out in the market, and where the plastic ends up. Environment minister Steven Guilbeault said at a webcast press event on Monday that the registry would create an inventory of plastics data, with the objective of providing transparency about the production, distribution, sale, use and disposal of plastics in Canada. Industry knew what kind of plastics is being produced, to whom it is sold, and how it is used, the minister said. The registry, in turn, would put this information into one place and make it accessible to the public, researchers and non-governmental organizations, enabling them to track plastics production and plastics use, he said. The registry would have a similar role in fighting plastic pollution as the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory reports the government uses in combatting emissions, he said, adding that without this information it was hard to tackle these challenges. The first phase of reporting to the plastics registry’s IT system is due to begin on 29 September 2025. UN PLASTICS POLLUTION TREATYIn related news, delegates from more than 170 countries on Tuesday gathered in Ottawa for the fourth session of the UN’s Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution (INC-4) to develop an international legally binding treaty on containing plastic pollution. The event runs from 23-29 April. German chemical producers’ trade group VCI and Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC) said they are supporting the fight against plastics pollution. VCI is looking to INC-4 and a subsequent final INC-5 to be held in South Korea in November for a global commitment to a circular economy, in which plastic products are reused or recycled, rather than ending up as waste in the environment, it said. At the same time, VCI stressed the benefits of plastics. An across-the-board “demonization” of plastics would end up harming the climate and the environment, rather than helping it, said VCI director general Wolfgang Grosse Entrup. “A sustainable future requires plastics,” he said and pointed, as examples, to plastics used in wind turbines, electric vehicles (EV) and packaging – applications in which plastics help avoid carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, he said. Likewise, CIAC vice president of policy Isabelle Des Chenes told media in a webcast event that plastics, for example, help preserve food. “There’s a lot of plastic and there’s a lot of plastic for a reason,” she added. Additional reporting by Tom Brown Thumbnail photo of environment minister Steven Guilbeault; photo source: government of Canada

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Recent cracker closure announcements in Europe and Japan may be the first of many as the industry grapples with chronic overcapacity driven by China and the Middle East. Three cracker closure announcements in Europe, Japan since late March 1.4 million tonnes of capacity affected, but up to 20 million may be needed Europe, Japan, South Korea suffer from higher costs Negative chemicals demand growth possible in China China still dominates global chemical markets Opportunity to pivot sites to low carbon, local markets In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Nigel Davis, ICIS Senior Consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.