LONDON (ICIS)–TotalEnergies will turn off its oldest steam cracker in Antwerp, Belgium by the end of 2027, the producer announced on Tuesday. The decision to stop production was taken in the face of overcapacity in the petrochemicals industry, with significant length expected in the European ethylene market, the company said. TotalEnergies operates two crackers at its Antwerp site, and will close the one that is not integrated with its downstream polymer production. The cracker had historically been dependent on a major contract with a third-party user for offtake of the ethylene it produced, but the buyer decided not to renew its purchase agreement by the end of 2027. The integrated steam cracker will continue to run, with ethylene produced used entirely by TotalEnergies industrial units in Antwerp and Feluy, Belgium. The move to close the cracker will impact 253 employees, but TotalEnergies has not announced any redundancies in line with the decision. Those concerned will be offered “a solution aligned with their personal situation: retirement or an internal transfer to another position based at the Antwerp site,” the energy major said in a statement. “This project is subject to the legally required employee consultation and notification process, which TotalEnergies will initiate with representatives of Antwerp platform employees in late April.” Thumbnail image shows aerial view of petrochemical industry infrastructure along Scheldt River in the Port of Antwerp (image credit Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand upgraded their free trade agreement, which came into force on 21 April, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). The upgraded ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) will, among other amendments, strengthen supply chain resilience during times of crisis, allow for preferential tariff treatment and market access, and improve access to green opportunities among the countries, MTI said in a statement on 21 April. ASEAN comprises 10 countries from southeast Asia, namely, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei and Myanmar. “Amidst the uncertainties in the global trade environment, this agreement is a bright spot demonstrating ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand’s commitment to an open, inclusive and rules-based multilateral trading system,” said Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, who is the concurrent trade & industry minister of the country. In 2023, ASEAN traded a total of $138.4 billion in goods with Australia and New Zealand. The combined GDP of all parties in the deal stood at over $5.6 trillion. The AANZFTA first came into effect on 1 January 2020, eliminating tariffs for 90% of goods traded between the parties, and covers 100% of Singapore’s trade volume with Australia and New Zealand, according to Enterprise Singapore.

NEW YORK (ICIS)–Plunging US chemical stock prices may already be signaling a recession by year-end 2025, one Wall Street analyst said. “Chemical equities have been a good lead indicator for recessionary periods. History shows us that chemical equities start discounting a recession four to six quarters before it happens, suggesting that this time around, almost on cue, the sector was pointing to a recession by year-end 2025,” said Hassan Ahmed, analyst at Alembic Global Advisors, in a research note. US chemical equities started to decline in earnest in mid-2024 with the selling picking up steam in October 2024 and most recently in April 2025. “Analyzing 60 years’ worth of historical data, what’s different this time around is that the average western chemical equity has dropped 22% year-to-date and is down 54% from its 2022 highs, far exceeding the average 31% decline, peak-to-trough, across all US recessionary periods going back to the 1960s,” he added. This would also suggest the decline is overdone, he noted. Being a leading indicator, chemical equities will fall sharply ahead of a recession, outperform the market during the recession in anticipation of an upturn, and rally strongly – 83% on average – coming out of a recession, the analyst pointed out. In his former role as chief economist of the American Chemistry Council (ACC), ICIS senior economist for Global Chemicals, Kevin Swift, analyzed the US chemical industry as a leading indicator for the US business cycle. Swift allocated around a 10% weighting to US chemical stock performance in the ACC Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB). The economist puts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months at 34%. BETTER BALANCE SHEETS“Though some investors fear the emergence of another 2008/2009-type recession, we highlight that today’s western chemical sector is in a far better place, on both a balance sheet and cash flow basis, than during the global financial crisis,” said Ahmed. At the end of 2024, the sector had lower net debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and higher free cash flow, interest coverage ratios, and cash flow coverage ratios of total debt, relative to the end of 2008 when the Global Financial Crisis began, he noted. “Additionally, the sector’s debt maturity profile today is far more spread out than in 2008, with very little debt coming due over the next two years,” said Ahmed. Chemical companies with the best risk/return profile include Celanese, Huntsman, Methanex, Tronox and Westlake, according to the analyst. Chemical stocks down by more than 50% from their 2022 highs to 14 April include Trinseo (-95%), Braskem (-85%), Tronox (-79%), Celanese (-78%), Chemours (-74%), Olin (-69%), Huntsman (-67%), Dow (-59%), Methanex (-52%) and LyondellBasell (-51%). Source: CNBC QUESTIONS ON DIVIDENDSThe selling has accelerated in April amid US tariff announcements. The equity declines have been so pronounced that dividend yields are now around 10.0% for Dow, 9.6% for LyondellBasell and 7.8% for Huntsman. In upcoming Q1 earnings calls, company managements will no doubt field questions about the safety of their dividends, as well as tariff impact. The Alembic Global Advisors analyst does not view dividend safety as a concern, as even in a draconian situation where EBITDA drops to 2020 COVID-19 levels, all companies under coverage with the exception of Dow, Huntsman and LyondellBasell and the industrial gas companies would be able to cover their dividends with cash flow. “We would also highlight that Dow has over $3 billion in cash coming in 2025 from various deals struck and settlements reached so can easily cover their dividend. The remaining five companies could easily tap into the debt markets to raise funds to cover their dividends if the need were to arise,” said Ahmed. (Thumbnail shows stock listings. Image by Shutterstock.)

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the fortnight ended on 18 April. NEWS Brazil’s chemicals production in ‘free fall’ as idle capacity hits 40%Brazil’s chemicals industry is facing its worst performance in 30 years, with the producing companies in the sector operating at just 60% of installed capacity during January and February, the country’s trade group Abiquim said. Mexico must do homework on USMCA compliance, set policy to prop up nearshoring – Evonik execMexico breathed a sigh of relief when the US spared it from very punitive tariffs, but the country should not turn complacent and use this as a catalyst to step up compliance with rules of origin clauses contained in the North America free trade deal USMCA, according to the director for Mexico at German chemicals major Evonik. US tariffs spark fears in Chile about even higher industrial goods importsUS import tariffs on China and other Asian countries are increasing fears in Chile that even higher amounts of imports will dent domestic plastics and wider manufacturing producers’ competitiveness, according to the CEO at the country’s plastics trade group Asipla. INSIGHT: Argentina’s chemicals remain uninvited to the recovery partyArgentina’s chemicals sector remains in the doldrums, with output in the first quarter lower year on year, according to sources, who are increasingly turning pessimistic about manufacturing’s prospects amid the push for economic liberalization. Brazil’s inflation rises to 5.5% in March, further tightening expectedBrazil’s annual rate of inflation rose to 5.5% in March, year on year, the highest level in more than two years and up from 5.1% in February, the country’s statics office said on Friday. Argentina’s chemicals, plastics output keeps falling but manufacturing, construction upArgentina’s chemicals and plastics output continued falling in February, year on year, but petrochemicals-intensive activity in construction and overall manufacturing rose, according to the country’s statistics office Indec. Argentina’s annual inflation down to 56%; monthly price rises accelerateArgentina’s annual rate of inflation fell in March to 55.9%, down from 65.9% in February, the country’s statistics office said on Friday. Argentina’s IMF bailout confirmed after Milei returns from Washington; tariffs deal more elusiveWhen President Javier Milei of Argentina travelled to Washington last week, most analysts expected him to return with an IMF bailout agreed and ready. On Wednesday, the Fund confirmed a bail out for Argentina for the second time in four years, affirming analyst expectations. PRICINGLatAm PP spot domestic prices lower in Brazil on ample supply, weak demandSpot domestic polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed lower in Brazil on ample supply and weak demand. In other Latin American countries, prices were steady. LatAm PE domestic prices fall in Brazil, Mexico on ample supply, soft demandDomestic polyethylene (PE) prices fell in Brazil and Mexico while being unchanged in other Latin American (LatAm) countries.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 18 April. US tariffs spark fears in Chile about even higher industrial goods imports US import tariffs on China and other Asian countries are increasing fears in Chile that even higher amounts of imports will dent domestic plastics and wider manufacturing producers’ competitiveness, according to the CEO at the country’s plastics trade group Asipla. INSIGHT: Global chemical prices plunge with oil amid tariffs The tariffs imposed by the US and the uncertainty of what will follow has caused a crash in oil prices and is one of the main factors behind a global decline in chemical prices in the days after the country’s April announcement of its reciprocal tariffs. Valero may shut down California refinery in 2026 Valero has submitted notice to the California Energy Commission of its intent to idle, restructure, or cease refining operations at its Benicia Refinery by the end of April 2026, the US refining major said in an update on Wednesday. Brazil’s chemicals production in ‘free fall’ as idle capacity hits 40% Brazil’s chemicals industry is facing its worst performance in 30 years, with the producing companies in the sector operating at just 60% of installed capacity during January and February, the country’s trade group Abiquim said. INSIGHT: Possible US mineral tariffs threaten chem, refiner catalysts The US is taking steps that could lead to tariffs on imports of up to 50 critical minerals, many of which are used to make catalysts for key processes used by refiners and chemical producers. Canada to keep using retaliatory tariffs, regardless of election outcome Canada will continue resorting to retaliatory tariffs against the US – regardless of which party, the incumbent Liberals or the opposition Conservatives, wins the upcoming 28 April federal election.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 17 April. Europe PE endures week of tariff chaos, emerges with softer outlookThe European polyethylene (PE) market has suffered a week of tariff-based turmoil, which resulted in a significant shift in market sentiment. Low river Rhine severely restricts chemical shipping, rates riseDry weather conditions are starving the river Rhine of water, restricting its use for chemicals traffic and pushing up shipping rates, with no improvement forecast until later in April. Europe MPG players say seasonal improvement unlikelyEuropean monopropylene glycol (MPG) sellers do not see any respite from tough market conditions as the construction sector is struggling, arbitrage with Asia is wide and US tariffs are creating uncertainties through the value chain. INSIGHT: Europe chems players move to the side lines on tariff upheavalThe market volatility following the intensification of tariff threats has cast a pall over European chemicals sector activity, with players avoiding committing to long-term orders if possible in the face of demand uncertainty and currency volatility.

MUMBAI (ICIS)–State-owned National Fertilizers Ltd (NFL) plans to acquire an 18% stake in a proposed joint venture (JV) that will build a 1.27 million tonne/year urea plant at Namrup in India’s eastern Assam state. NFL plans to invest Indian rupees (Rs) 5.72 billion ($67 million) in the Namrup IV Fertilizer Plant, the company said in a disclosure to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) on 18 April. The state government of Assam will hold a 40% stake in the proposed joint venture; with NFL and Oil India Ltd (OIL) each holding an 18% stake. Hindustan Urvarak & Rasayan Ltd (HURL) will own 13% and Brahmaputra Valley Fertiliser Corp (BVFCL) will have the remaining 11%. The project, which will be set up within the complex operated by BVFCL, is expected to cost Rs106 billion, it added. The plant is expected to be commissioned within 48 months of the project launch, NFL said, adding that once operational, the plant will help meet the growing demand for urea in northeast India. The Indian government approved the proposal for the new project on 19 March 2025 as part of its effort to reduce urea imports. Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced the project during her budget speech on 1 February 2025. It will be the eighth plant with the same capacity that will be built in the south Asian country since 2019. ($1 = Rs85.12)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 18 April 2025. INSIGHT: China SM feedstocks, end-products outlook clouded by US tariffs By Aviva Zhang 17-Apr-25 12:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Escalating US-China trade tensions have driven significant fluctuations in China’s styrene monomer (SM) market, with feedstock import costs and constraints on end- products exports to continue to affect the market. INSIGHT: ICIS cuts April Asia chemical forecast as recession fears hit global market By Ann Sun 17-Apr-25 12:0 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies and the potential for a global recession continues to weigh on global oil prices, projecting a decline in chemical prices as a consequence. The knock-on effect on end markets, coupled with conservative business sentiment, will shape the price trend. Asia petrochemicals slump as US-China trade war stokes recession fears By Jonathan Yee 16-Apr-25 17:34 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US “reciprocal” tariffs are prompting a shift of trade flows and supply chains as market players in Asia seek alternative export outlets for some chemicals, while overall demand remains tepid amid growing fears of a global recession. INSIGHT: US tariff barriers put further downward pressure on the Asian aromatics market By Jenny Yi 16-Apr-25 17:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The macroeconomic repercussions from the escalating US-China trade war and potential for reduced end-market demand are expected to exert additional pressure on Asian aromatics markets. CHINAPLAS ’25: Asia polyolefin players gather for clarity amid US trade war By Jackie Wong 16-Apr-25 14:34 SINGAPORE/SHENZHEN, China (ICIS)–Polyolefin market players from Asia are gathering in China this week for an annual industry event under a cloud of uncertainty as the US embarks on a trade war that could potentially redefine trade flows in the region. China Q1 GDP growth at 5.4%; outlook dims amid trade war with US By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Apr-25 12:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economy expanded by 5.4% year on year on the first quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter, official data showed on Wednesday, but the world’s second-biggest economy is generally expected to weaken due to the tit-for-tat trade war with the US. INSIGHT: Asia C2 awaits tariff response from Chinese ethane crackers By Josh Quah 16-Apr-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia ethylene markets have settled into a disquieting calm belying the tumult of the past 10 tariff-packed days. The spotlight is now sharply on a segment of players – crackers that crack ethane into ethylene – that may have an impact on the import-export market depending on their response to the US-China trade war. INSIGHT: China propylene supply to fall amid trade tensions with US By Seymour Chenxia 15-Apr-25 14:4 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Escalating US-China trade tensions are expected to raise production cost for Chinese propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants and weaken overall domestic demand for propylene (C3) at the same time. Singapore slashes 2025 GDP growth on escalating US-China trade war By Jonathan Yee 14-Apr-25 12:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Monday cut the country’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0-2% from a previous 1-3%, citing escalating US-China trade tensions and the impact of reciprocal tariffs on global trade. INSIGHT: China-US trade war to hurt NGL trades both ways By Lillian Ren 14-Apr-25 14:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–As one of the largest petrochemical producers globally, China plays a vital role in taking in US’ natural gas liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, propane and butane for propylene and ethylene production. High tariffs are expected to rule out US NGLs products from China market, which, in turn, will hurt buyers and producers in both countries. INSIGHT: China new energy storage capacity to surge by 2030 By Anita Yang 14-Apr-25 16:19 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–New energy storage plays a crucial role in ensuring power balance in China, especially in effectively addressing the intermittent issues of new energy generation. It helps alleviate the dual pressures of power supply security and consumption.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Newly announced port fees by the US Trade Representative (USTR) are less substantial than the proposal from February, but a shipping analyst expects vessel supply to decrease and rates to climb on certain routes. Theodor Gerrard-Anderson, chemical freight analyst at Lighthouse Chartering, said that most bulk liquid shipowners will not be affected by the USTR’s final plan for port fees on China-linked vessels, but major Chinese operators will see impacts from Annex I. And despite exemptions in Annex II, Gerrard-Anderson anticipates tighter vessel supply and higher rates for vessels transiting the US Gulf. Annexes I and II from the USTR’s final plan are the applicable sections for the bulk liquid transportation market. The effects from Annex I, which focuses on service fees on Chinese vessel operators and vessel owners of China, will be impacted as many of these owners have established a meaningful presence in the US market and maintain large contract of affreightment (COA) portfolios for trading specialty chems and bulk liquid cargoes, Gerrard-Anderson said. Annex II, which essentially impacts the rest of the bulk liquid transportation market, includes exemptions for tankers less than 80,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT) even if they are built in China, and for ships on short sea trades of less than 2,000 nautical miles. Special purpose-built vessels for the transport of chemical substances in bulk liquid forms will not be charged. Another exemption, designed to help maintain US exports, is that ships arriving ballast will not be charged to ensure tonnage is available for export. Analysts at shipping broker NETCO said that most vessels in their segment are exempt under Annex II. On the container shipping side, the softening of the fee structure reduces the risk of severe port congestion and could ease overall upward pressure on freight rates, according to an analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta. Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta senior shipping analyst, said it is significant that the final proposal has fees levied on a net tonnage basis per US voyage, rather than cumulative fees for every port the ship calls at. “We must look carefully at the potential impact of the revised port fees, but changes will be welcomed by the ocean container shipping industry given the significant criticism levelled at the initial proposal during the public hearing,” Stausbøll said. “The fact fees will not be imposed on every port call is particularly important because it lowers the risk of congestion had carriers decided to cut the number of calls on each service into the US,” Stausbøll said. “This port congestion had the potential to cause severe disruption and upward pressure on freight rates.” Stausbøll said costs could still be very high for Chinese carriers and carriers operating Chinese-built vessels – particularly for ships with the largest capacity. “The latest announcement should still be viewed in the context of the original proposal, which offered dire consequences,” Stausbøll said. “The situation has changed for the better, but it isn’t a great victory for the ocean container shipping industry because these fees still add further pressure at a time when businesses are already trying to navigate the spiraling tariffs announced by the Trump Administration.” Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks.