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Ethylene22-Apr-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–TotalEnergies will turn off its
oldest steam cracker in Antwerp, Belgium by the
end of 2027, the producer announced on Tuesday.
The decision to stop production was taken in
the face of overcapacity in the petrochemicals
industry, with significant length expected in
the European ethylene market, the company said.
TotalEnergies operates two crackers at its
Antwerp site, and will close the one that is
not integrated with its downstream polymer
production.
The cracker had historically been dependent on
a major contract with a third-party user for
offtake of the ethylene it produced, but the
buyer decided not to renew its purchase
agreement by the end of 2027.
The integrated steam cracker will continue to
run, with ethylene produced used entirely by
TotalEnergies industrial units in Antwerp and
Feluy, Belgium.
The move to close the cracker will impact 253
employees, but TotalEnergies has not announced
any redundancies in line with the decision.
Those concerned will be offered “a solution
aligned with their personal situation:
retirement or an internal transfer to another
position based at the Antwerp site,” the energy
major said in a statement.
“This project is subject to the legally
required employee consultation and notification
process, which TotalEnergies will initiate with
representatives of Antwerp platform employees
in late April.”
Thumbnail image shows aerial view of
petrochemical industry infrastructure along
Scheldt River in the Port of Antwerp (image
credit Shutterstock)
Crude Oil22-Apr-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ASEAN, Australia and New
Zealand upgraded their free trade agreement,
which came into force on 21 April, according to
Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry
(MTI).
The upgraded ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free
Trade Area (AANZFTA) will, among other
amendments, strengthen supply chain resilience
during times of crisis, allow for preferential
tariff treatment and market access, and improve
access to green opportunities among the
countries, MTI said in a statement on 21 April.
ASEAN comprises 10 countries from southeast
Asia, namely, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Laos,
Cambodia, Brunei and Myanmar.
“Amidst the uncertainties in the global trade
environment, this agreement is a bright spot
demonstrating ASEAN, Australia and New
Zealand’s commitment to an open, inclusive and
rules-based multilateral trading system,” said
Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong,
who is the concurrent trade & industry
minister of the country.
In 2023, ASEAN traded a total of $138.4 billion
in goods with Australia and New Zealand. The
combined GDP of all parties in the deal stood
at over $5.6 trillion.
The AANZFTA first came into effect on 1 January
2020, eliminating tariffs for 90% of goods
traded between the parties, and covers 100% of
Singapore’s trade volume with Australia and New
Zealand, according to Enterprise Singapore.
Petrochemicals21-Apr-2025
NEW YORK (ICIS)–Plunging US chemical stock
prices may already be signaling a recession by
year-end 2025, one Wall Street analyst said.
“Chemical equities have been a good lead
indicator for recessionary periods. History
shows us that chemical equities start
discounting a recession four to six quarters
before it happens, suggesting that this time
around, almost on cue, the sector was pointing
to a recession by year-end 2025,” said Hassan
Ahmed, analyst at Alembic Global Advisors, in a
research note.
US chemical equities started to decline in
earnest in mid-2024 with the selling picking up
steam in October 2024 and most recently in
April 2025.
“Analyzing 60 years’ worth of historical data,
what’s different this time around is that the
average western chemical equity has dropped 22%
year-to-date and is down 54% from its 2022
highs, far exceeding the average 31% decline,
peak-to-trough, across all US recessionary
periods going back to the 1960s,” he added.
This would also suggest the decline is
overdone, he noted.
Being a leading indicator, chemical equities
will fall sharply ahead of a recession,
outperform the market during the recession in
anticipation of an upturn, and rally strongly –
83% on average – coming out of a recession, the
analyst pointed out.
In his former role as chief economist of the
American Chemistry Council (ACC), ICIS senior
economist for Global Chemicals, Kevin Swift,
analyzed the US chemical industry as a leading
indicator for the US business cycle.
Swift allocated around a 10% weighting to US
chemical stock performance in the ACC Chemical
Activity Barometer (CAB).
The economist puts the probability of a US
recession in the next 12 months at 34%.
BETTER BALANCE
SHEETS“Though some investors
fear the emergence of another 2008/2009-type
recession, we highlight that today’s western
chemical sector is in a far better place, on
both a balance sheet and cash flow basis, than
during the global financial crisis,” said
Ahmed.
At the end of 2024, the sector had lower net
debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation and amortization) and
higher free cash flow, interest coverage
ratios, and cash flow coverage ratios of total
debt, relative to the end of 2008 when the
Global Financial Crisis began, he noted.
“Additionally, the sector’s debt maturity
profile today is far more spread out than in
2008, with very little debt coming due over the
next two years,” said Ahmed.
Chemical companies with the best risk/return
profile include Celanese, Huntsman, Methanex,
Tronox and Westlake, according to the analyst.
Chemical stocks down by more than 50% from
their 2022 highs to 14 April include Trinseo
(-95%), Braskem (-85%), Tronox (-79%), Celanese
(-78%), Chemours (-74%), Olin (-69%), Huntsman
(-67%), Dow (-59%), Methanex (-52%) and
LyondellBasell (-51%).
Source: CNBC
QUESTIONS ON
DIVIDENDSThe selling has
accelerated in April amid US tariff
announcements. The equity declines have been so
pronounced that dividend yields are now around
10.0% for Dow, 9.6% for LyondellBasell and 7.8%
for Huntsman.
In upcoming Q1 earnings calls, company
managements will no doubt field questions about
the safety of their dividends, as well as
tariff impact.
The Alembic Global Advisors analyst does not
view dividend safety as a concern, as even in a
draconian situation where EBITDA drops to 2020
COVID-19 levels, all companies under coverage
with the exception of Dow, Huntsman and
LyondellBasell and the industrial gas companies
would be able to cover their dividends with
cash flow.
“We would also highlight that Dow has over $3
billion in cash coming in 2025 from various
deals struck and settlements reached so can
easily cover their dividend. The remaining five
companies could easily tap into the debt
markets to raise funds to cover their dividends
if the need were to arise,” said Ahmed.
(Thumbnail shows stock listings. Image by
Shutterstock.)

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Speciality Chemicals21-Apr-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the
stories from ICIS Latin America for the
fortnight ended on 18 April.
NEWS
Brazil’s chemicals
production in ‘free fall’ as idle capacity
hits 40%Brazil’s chemicals
industry is facing its worst performance in
30 years, with the producing companies in the
sector operating at just 60% of installed
capacity during January and February, the
country’s trade group Abiquim said.
Mexico must do homework
on USMCA compliance, set policy to prop up
nearshoring – Evonik
execMexico breathed a sigh
of relief when the US spared it from very
punitive tariffs, but the country should not
turn complacent and use this as a catalyst to
step up compliance with rules of origin
clauses contained in the North America free
trade deal USMCA, according to the director
for Mexico at German chemicals major Evonik.
US
tariffs spark fears in Chile about even
higher industrial goods
importsUS import tariffs
on China and other Asian countries are
increasing fears in Chile that even higher
amounts of imports will dent domestic
plastics and wider manufacturing producers’
competitiveness, according to the CEO at the
country’s plastics trade group Asipla.
INSIGHT: Argentina’s
chemicals remain uninvited to the recovery
partyArgentina’s chemicals
sector remains in the doldrums, with output
in the first quarter lower year on year,
according to sources, who are increasingly
turning pessimistic about manufacturing’s
prospects amid the push for economic
liberalization.
Brazil’s inflation
rises to 5.5% in March, further tightening
expectedBrazil’s annual
rate of inflation rose to 5.5% in March, year
on year, the highest level in more than two
years and up from 5.1% in February, the
country’s statics office said on Friday.
Argentina’s chemicals,
plastics output keeps falling but
manufacturing, construction
upArgentina’s chemicals
and plastics output continued falling in
February, year on year, but
petrochemicals-intensive activity in
construction and overall manufacturing rose,
according to the country’s statistics office
Indec.
Argentina’s annual
inflation down to 56%; monthly price rises
accelerateArgentina’s
annual rate of inflation fell in March to
55.9%, down from 65.9% in February, the
country’s statistics office said on Friday.
Argentina’s IMF bailout
confirmed after Milei returns from
Washington; tariffs deal more
elusiveWhen President
Javier Milei of Argentina travelled to
Washington last week, most analysts expected
him to return with an IMF bailout agreed and
ready. On Wednesday, the Fund confirmed a
bail out for Argentina for the second time in
four years, affirming analyst expectations.
PRICINGLatAm PP spot domestic
prices lower in Brazil on ample supply, weak
demandSpot domestic
polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed lower
in Brazil on ample supply and weak demand. In
other Latin American countries, prices were
steady.
LatAm PE domestic
prices fall in Brazil, Mexico on ample
supply, soft
demandDomestic
polyethylene (PE) prices fell in Brazil and
Mexico while being unchanged in other Latin
American (LatAm) countries.
Ethylene21-Apr-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 18 April.
US tariffs spark fears in Chile about
even higher industrial goods
imports
US import tariffs on China and other Asian
countries are increasing fears in Chile that
even higher amounts of imports will dent
domestic plastics and wider manufacturing
producers’ competitiveness, according to the
CEO at the country’s plastics trade group
Asipla.
INSIGHT: Global chemical prices
plunge with oil amid
tariffs
The tariffs imposed by the US and the
uncertainty of what will follow has caused a
crash in oil prices and is one of the main
factors behind a global decline in chemical
prices in the days after the country’s April
announcement of its reciprocal tariffs.
Valero may shut down California
refinery in 2026
Valero has submitted notice to the California
Energy Commission of its intent to idle,
restructure, or cease refining operations at
its Benicia Refinery by the end of
April 2026, the US refining major said in an
update on Wednesday.
Brazil’s chemicals production in
‘free fall’ as idle capacity hits
40%
Brazil’s chemicals industry is facing its
worst performance in 30 years, with the
producing companies in the sector operating
at just 60% of installed capacity during
January and February, the country’s trade
group Abiquim said.
INSIGHT: Possible US mineral tariffs
threaten chem, refiner
catalysts
The US is taking steps that could lead to
tariffs on imports of up to 50 critical
minerals, many of which are used to make
catalysts for key processes used by refiners
and chemical producers.
Canada to keep using retaliatory
tariffs, regardless of election
outcome
Canada will continue resorting to retaliatory
tariffs against the US – regardless of which
party, the incumbent Liberals or the
opposition Conservatives, wins the
upcoming 28 April federal election.
Speciality Chemicals21-Apr-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top
stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended
17 April.
Europe PE endures week
of tariff chaos, emerges with softer
outlookThe European
polyethylene (PE) market has suffered a week
of tariff-based turmoil, which resulted in a
significant shift in market sentiment.
Low
river Rhine severely restricts chemical
shipping, rates riseDry
weather conditions are starving the river
Rhine of water, restricting its use for
chemicals traffic and pushing up shipping
rates, with no improvement forecast until
later in April.
Europe MPG players say
seasonal improvement
unlikelyEuropean
monopropylene glycol (MPG) sellers do not see
any respite from tough market conditions as
the construction sector is struggling,
arbitrage with Asia is wide and US tariffs
are creating uncertainties through the value
chain.
INSIGHT: Europe chems
players move to the side lines on tariff
upheavalThe market
volatility following the intensification of
tariff threats has cast a pall over European
chemicals sector activity, with players
avoiding committing to long-term orders if
possible in the face of demand uncertainty
and currency volatility.
Petrochemicals21-Apr-2025
MUMBAI (ICIS)–State-owned National Fertilizers
Ltd (NFL) plans to acquire an 18% stake in a
proposed joint venture (JV) that will build a
1.27 million tonne/year urea plant at Namrup in
India’s eastern Assam state.
NFL plans to invest Indian rupees (Rs) 5.72
billion ($67 million) in the Namrup IV
Fertilizer Plant, the company said in a
disclosure to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)
on 18 April.
The state government of Assam will hold a 40%
stake in the proposed joint venture; with NFL
and Oil India Ltd (OIL) each holding an 18%
stake. Hindustan Urvarak & Rasayan Ltd
(HURL) will own 13% and Brahmaputra Valley
Fertiliser Corp (BVFCL) will have the remaining
11%.
The project, which will be set up within the
complex operated by BVFCL, is expected to cost
Rs106 billion, it added.
The plant is expected to be commissioned within
48 months of the project launch, NFL said,
adding that once operational, the plant will
help meet the growing demand for urea in
northeast India.
The Indian government approved the proposal for
the new project on 19 March 2025 as part of its
effort to reduce urea imports.
Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had
announced the project during her budget speech
on 1 February 2025. It will be the eighth plant with the
same capacity that will be built in the south
Asian country since 2019.
($1 = Rs85.12)
Gas21-Apr-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories
from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for
the week ended 18 April 2025.
INSIGHT: China SM feedstocks, end-products
outlook clouded by US tariffs
By Aviva Zhang 17-Apr-25 12:18
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Escalating US-China trade
tensions have driven significant fluctuations
in China’s styrene monomer (SM) market, with
feedstock import costs and constraints on
end- products exports to continue to affect
the market.
INSIGHT: ICIS cuts April Asia chemical
forecast as recession fears hit global
market
By Ann Sun 17-Apr-25 12:0
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Uncertainty surrounding US
tariff policies and the potential for a
global recession continues to weigh on global
oil prices, projecting a decline in chemical
prices as a consequence. The knock-on effect
on end markets, coupled with conservative
business sentiment, will shape the price
trend.
Asia petrochemicals slump as US-China trade
war stokes recession fears
By Jonathan Yee 16-Apr-25 17:34 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–US “reciprocal” tariffs are prompting
a shift of trade flows and supply chains as
market players in Asia seek alternative
export outlets for some chemicals, while
overall demand remains tepid amid growing
fears of a global recession.
INSIGHT: US tariff barriers put further
downward pressure on the Asian aromatics
market
By Jenny Yi 16-Apr-25 17:01 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The macroeconomic repercussions from
the escalating US-China trade war and
potential for reduced end-market demand are
expected to exert additional pressure on
Asian aromatics markets.
CHINAPLAS ’25: Asia polyolefin players gather
for clarity amid US trade war
By Jackie Wong 16-Apr-25 14:34
SINGAPORE/SHENZHEN, China (ICIS)–Polyolefin
market players from Asia are gathering in
China this week for an annual industry event
under a cloud of uncertainty as the US
embarks on a trade war that could potentially
redefine trade flows in the region.
China Q1 GDP growth at 5.4%; outlook dims
amid trade war with US
By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Apr-25 12:31
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economy expanded by
5.4% year on year on the first quarter,
unchanged from the previous quarter, official
data showed on Wednesday, but the world’s
second-biggest economy is generally expected
to weaken due to the tit-for-tat trade war
with the US.
INSIGHT: Asia C2 awaits tariff response from
Chinese ethane crackers
By Josh Quah 16-Apr-25 12:00
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia ethylene markets have
settled into a disquieting calm belying the
tumult of the past 10 tariff-packed days. The
spotlight is now sharply on a segment of
players – crackers that crack ethane into
ethylene – that may have an impact on the
import-export market depending on their
response to the US-China trade war.
INSIGHT: China propylene supply to fall amid
trade tensions with US
By Seymour Chenxia 15-Apr-25 14:4
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Escalating US-China trade
tensions are expected to raise production
cost for Chinese propane dehydrogenation
(PDH) plants and weaken overall domestic
demand for propylene (C3) at the same time.
Singapore slashes 2025 GDP growth on
escalating US-China trade war
By Jonathan Yee 14-Apr-25 12:06
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s Ministry of
Trade and Industry (MTI) on Monday cut the
country’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0-2%
from a previous 1-3%, citing escalating
US-China trade tensions and the impact of
reciprocal tariffs on global trade.
INSIGHT: China-US trade war to hurt NGL
trades both ways
By Lillian Ren 14-Apr-25 14:39
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–As one of the largest
petrochemical producers globally, China plays
a vital role in taking in US’ natural gas
liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, propane and
butane for propylene and ethylene production.
High tariffs are expected to rule out US NGLs
products from China market, which, in turn,
will hurt buyers and producers in both
countries.
INSIGHT: China new energy storage capacity to
surge by 2030
By Anita Yang 14-Apr-25 16:19
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–New energy storage plays a
crucial role in ensuring power balance in
China, especially in effectively addressing
the intermittent issues of new energy
generation. It helps alleviate the dual
pressures of power supply security and
consumption.
Speciality Chemicals18-Apr-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Newly announced port fees by
the US Trade Representative (USTR) are less
substantial than the proposal from
February, but a shipping analyst expects vessel
supply to decrease and rates to climb on
certain routes.
Theodor Gerrard-Anderson, chemical freight
analyst at Lighthouse Chartering, said that
most bulk liquid shipowners will not be
affected by the USTR’s final plan for port fees on
China-linked vessels, but major Chinese
operators will see impacts from Annex I.
And despite exemptions in Annex II,
Gerrard-Anderson anticipates tighter vessel
supply and higher rates for vessels transiting
the US Gulf.
Annexes I and II from the USTR’s final plan are
the applicable sections for the bulk liquid
transportation market.
The effects from Annex I, which focuses on
service fees on Chinese vessel operators and
vessel owners of China, will be impacted as
many of these owners have established a
meaningful presence in the US market and
maintain large contract of affreightment (COA)
portfolios for trading specialty chems and bulk
liquid cargoes, Gerrard-Anderson said.
Annex II, which essentially impacts the rest of
the bulk liquid transportation market, includes
exemptions for tankers less than 80,000
deadweight tonnage (DWT) even if they are built
in China, and for ships on short sea trades of
less than 2,000 nautical miles.
Special purpose-built vessels for the transport
of chemical substances in bulk liquid forms
will not be charged.
Another exemption, designed to help maintain US
exports, is that ships arriving ballast will
not be charged to ensure tonnage is available
for export.
Analysts at shipping broker NETCO said that
most vessels in their segment are exempt under
Annex II.
On the container shipping side, the softening
of the fee structure reduces the risk of severe
port congestion and could ease overall upward
pressure on freight rates, according to an
analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics
firm Xeneta.
Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta senior shipping
analyst, said it is significant that the final
proposal has fees levied on a net tonnage basis
per US voyage, rather than cumulative fees for
every port the ship calls at.
“We must look carefully at the potential impact
of the revised port fees, but changes will be
welcomed by the ocean container shipping
industry given the significant criticism
levelled at the initial proposal during the
public hearing,” Stausbøll said.
“The fact fees will not be imposed on every
port call is particularly important because it
lowers the risk of congestion had carriers
decided to cut the number of calls on each
service into the US,” Stausbøll said. “This
port congestion had the potential to cause
severe disruption and upward pressure on
freight rates.”
Stausbøll said costs could still be very high
for Chinese carriers and carriers operating
Chinese-built vessels – particularly for ships
with the largest capacity.
“The latest announcement should still be viewed
in the context of the original proposal, which
offered dire consequences,” Stausbøll said.
“The situation has changed for the better, but
it isn’t a great victory for the ocean
container shipping industry because these fees
still add further pressure at a time when
businesses are already trying to navigate the
spiraling tariffs announced by the Trump
Administration.”
Container ships and costs for shipping
containers are relevant to the chemical
industry because while most chemicals are
liquids and are shipped in tankers, container
ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene
(PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in
pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also
shipped in containers.
They also transport liquid chemicals in
isotanks.
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