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Polyethylene07-May-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click
here to see the latest blog post on Asian
Chemical Connections by John Richardson.
No matter which petrochemical or polymer you
examine, the story is similar. To illustrate
this point, let’s today look at polyvinyl
chloride (PVC).
As China’s economy boomed, largely thanks to
the growth in its exports, so did its
petrochemicals demand, increasing the gap
between China’s consumption and that of the
much more populous Developing World ex-China
region.
China’s 2008-2009 US$586bn economic stimulus
package – which largely went into housing and
infrastructure – seems to have had a much
bigger effect on the country’s PVC demand than
in some other products.
Up until the Evergrande turning point in
September 2021, China’s investment in housing
and infrastructure continued at apace.
It appears as if stimulus greatly increased the
importance of Chinese PVC demand as a driver of
global PVC demand: Between 1992 and 2008,
China’s share of global demand averaged 17% per
year; in 2009-2024, the ICIS Supply &
Demand Database expects China’s share to reach
40%.
China’s demand growth averaged 10% per annum
between 1992 and 2023. But growth is forecast
to decline to 3% per year in 2024-2030. This
decline is in line with what ICIS expects in
other products.
Between 1992 (the start of what I see as the
Petrochemicals Supercycle) and 2023, global PVC
capacity exceeding demand was estimated by ICIS
as averaging 8m tonnes a year.
As with many other products, ICIS forecasts a
big increase in global PVC capacity exceeding
demand in 2024 -2030. During this period,
capacity exceeding demand is expected to
average 15m tonnes a year.
In another parallel with other products,
China’s self-sufficiency in PVC has reached the
point where it has swung from being a major net
importer to being a net exporter.
Trade tensions between China and the West have
been building since Mike Pence, the then US
Vice President, made a landmark speech in
October 2018.
Could this translate to more protectionism in
global PVC markets? It is a scenario worth
considering as China seeks to increase its
exports, challenging the US which accounts for
the lion’s share of export trade.
During the Petrochemicals Supercycle, the world
was becoming ever-more globalised rather than
what we are seeing today – the reverse.
China was the tide that lifted all ships.
Almost every year, its growth surprised on the
upside, guaranteeing success for even the
least-competitive plants.
We didn’t we have to worry about big increases
in China’s self-sufficiency in PVC,
polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).
Now everything has changed, making big picture
analysis of China’s economic problems and the
global geopolitical landscape crucial.
This kind of analysis has become as important
if not more important than studying
cost-per-tonne economics.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Ammonia06-May-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US corn plantings are now 36%
completed with soybeans at 25%, according to
the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA)
weekly crop progress report.
The progress on crop sowings comes despite many
states experiencing rough weather conditions
with more forecasted to come this week,
especially within the central US.
The current pace of the corn crop is behind the
42% rate achieved in 2023 and the five-year
average of 39% completed.
North Carolina is now the leading state with
86% of the crop done, followed by Texas at 76%.
There is now 12% of the crop emerged, which is
ahead of the 10% from 2023 and the five-year
average of 9%.
Soybeans are now at 25% completed, which trails
the 30% level from last year, but it is above
the five-year average of 21%.
The top state for plantings is now Mississippi
with 67% of their crop completed, with Arkansas
close behind at 65%.
There is 9% of the crop emerged, which is ahead
of both the 7% from 2023 and the five-year
average of 4%.
For the other key crops, the USDA said cotton
plantings have reached 24% completed, with
sorghum at 23% and spring wheat now at 47%.
Polyethylene Terephthalate06-May-2024
ORLANDO (ICIS)–NPE2024 is underway in
Orlando, Florida, after a six-year hiatus,
and Senior Market Editor Emily Friedman and
Senior Marketing Executive Natalie Stephens
break down the key topics among discussions
and presentations at the show:
Sustainability is a pillar of the
industry, one which companies should
prioritize to future-proof their business
Risk management remains paramount,
following several years of instability and
unprecedented highs and lows
Technology and data have never been more
critical to embed within each step of the
value chain
To learn more, ICIS market experts Emily
Friedman, Kim Haberkost and Ramesh Iyer will
be giving separate presentations at 8:00AM
EST in W414AB on Tuesday, Wednesday and
Thursday mornings, diving into these critical
issues and more.
NPE2024 takes place on 6-10 May in Orlando,
Florida. Please stop by our booth, S20165, to
connect with us at the show!
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Polyethylene Terephthalate06-May-2024
ORLANDO (ICIS)–Headwinds for the plastics
industry including higher cost of capital,
weaker household spending momentum and capacity
adjustments will likely persist through 2024,
according to a presentation by Perc Pineda,
Chief Economist at PLASTICS, at this year’s NPE
show.
The
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.5%
year on year in March, with economists
expecting inflation to average 3.1% this year,
which is above the US Federal Reserve’s target
of 2%. As a result, interest rate futures are
now moving towards fewer cuts.
Elevated interest rates continue to negatively
impact the petrochemicals industry, including
US polyethylene terephthalate (PET), as high
interest rates continue to result in weaker
household spending.
Additionally, the US PET market continues to
experience capacity adjustments. In March of
2023, Alpek Polyester announced it would be
indefinitely shutting down its
Cooper River, South Carolina, PET site. A
few months later in September of 2023 the
integrated polyester plant being built by
Alpek, Indorama and Far Eastern New Century
(FENC), under the joint venture
Corpus Christi Polymers, announced it was
pausing construction at its Corpus Christi,
Texas, site because of inflation as well as
high construction and labor costs.
Globally, Indorama announced in
March 2024 that it is eyeing multiple sites
and it is aiming to shut down.
Without interest rate cuts, headwinds in the US
and global PET market will likely continue
through 2024, despite an optimistic demand
outlook for 2024 compared to 2023.
Thumbnail image shows multicolored PET
preforms for plastic bottles
Produced by Plastics Industry Association
(PLASTICS), NPE: The
Plastics Show takes place 6-10 May in
Orlando, Florida.
Caustic Soda06-May-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Heavy rainfall that caused
flooding from rising rivers over the weekend
was mainly to the north and east of the major
petrochemical plants closer to the Gulf Coast,
and has had little to no impact on operations.
Rainfall totals over the past 48 hours were
around 2 inches at the most, according to data
from the Harris County Flood Control District.
But the region was already waterlogged as
rainfall totals for the previous seven days
were as high as 13 inches, meaning the
additional weekend rains had no avenue to drain
and collected in low-lying areas.
There are no significant chances of more rain
in the near term, according to the latest
forecast from the National Weather Service.
The flooding did not affect power generation or
delivery in the region.
According to poweroutage.us, there were almost
5,000 customers in Texas without power on
Monday morning, with none in Harris county.
Ethylene06-May-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 3 May.
Besieged by
imports, Brazil’s chemicals put hopes on hefty
import tariffs hike
Brazilian chemicals producers are lobbying hard
for an increase in import tariffs for key
polymers and petrochemicals from 12.6% to 20%,
and higher in cases, hoping the hike could slow
down the influx of cheap imports, which have
put them against the wall.
US manufacturing
falls back into contraction in April, prices
rise
Economic activity in US manufacturing
contracted in April after expanding in
March, according to the Institute of Supply
Management’s (ISM) latest purchasing managers’
index (PMI) survey released on Wednesday.
SABIC Q1 net
income falls 62%, warns of industry
overcapacity
SABIC’s net income fell by 62% year on year to
Saudi Riyal (SR) 250 million in the first
quarter amid a drop in prices and sales
volumes, the chemicals major said late on
Wednesday.
US TiO2 producer
Kronos to shut down production via sulfate
process in Varennes, Canada
Kronos Worldwide, a titanium dioxide (TiO2)
producer headquartered in Dallas, Texas, US is
planning to permanently shut down sulfate-based
production at its location in Varennes, Quebec,
Canada.
US Huntsman
assets in Europe spare from energy hit, but EU
policies erratic – CEO
Huntsman’s assets in Europe are not energy
intensive and have been spared from the energy
crisis, but more broadly, the 27-country EU is
still lacking a comprehensive policy to address
the issue, the CEO at US chemicals major
Huntsman said on Friday.
Speciality Chemicals06-May-2024
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories
from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 3
May.
NEWS
Besieged by
imports, Brazil’s chemicals put hopes on hefty
import tariffs hike
Brazilian chemicals producers are lobbying hard
for an increase in import tariffs for key
polymers and petrochemicals from 12.6% to 20%,
and higher in cases, hoping the hike could slow
down the influx of cheap imports, which have
put them against the wall.
Mexico’s
manufacturing slows on weaker exports, Chinese
competition
Mexico’s manufacturing sectors slowed down
slightly in April on the back of tough
competition, particularly from China, and weak
demand from abroad, which caused a fall in
output, analysts at S&P Global said on
Thursday.
Brazil’s
manufacturing at nearly three-year high on
booming demand
Brazil’s manufacturing sectors continued
booming in April on the back of a sharp
increase in new business intakes, which led to
higher output and job creation, analysts at
S&P Global said on Thursday.
Mexico increases
PET import tariff again in attempt to shield
economy
In the last week of April, Mexican President
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador introduced an
amended version of the Tariff within the
General Import and Export Duties Law to enforce
import duties, or temporary duties, on products
falling under 504 tariff items, including
polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resin. These
new duties will vary from 5% to 50%.
Brazil’s Braskem
Q1 resin sales fall 5% yearly, on prioritizing
sales with higher added
value
Braskem resin sales in its domestic Brazilian
market dropped by 5% in Q1, year on year, on
the back of prioritizing sales with higher
added value in the period, the Brazilian
petrochemicals major said on Friday in its
quarterly production and sales report.
INSIGHT: Six
decades on, Brazil’s Unigel founder fights the
ultimate battle
The founder of Unigel, aged 87, is actively
fighting the Brazilian chemicals and
fertilizers producer’s most decisive battle,
one for its survival, as it tries to
restructure its debts, one step away from
bankruptcy.
PRICING
Lat Am PE
domestic prices fall in Argentina, Brazil on
cheaper imports, soft demand
Domestic polyethylene (PE) prices fell in
Argentina and Brazil due to competition with
cheaper imports and soft demand. In other Latin
American countries, prices were unchanged.
LatAm PP domestic
prices fall in Argentina, Colombia, Mexico on
lower feedstock costs, soft
demand
Domestic polypropylene (PP) prices fell in
Argentina, Colombia and Mexico on the back of
lower feedstock costs and soft demand.
Speciality Chemicals06-May-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories
from ICIS Europe for the week ended 3 May.
Freight rates spike again, nudging Europe PET
buyers back home
Shipping costs may be making European
polyethylene terephthalate (PET) imports
prohibitively expensive, giving domestic
sellers an opportunity to individually lift
prices.
Eurozone manufacturing activity dips again in
April as order momentum fades
Eurozone industrial sector momentum sank
further into contraction territory in April, to
hit a four-month low as new orders declined by
the sharpest rate seen in 2024.
Legal confusion limits Europe’s pyrolysis oil
trade as tyre-derived price fall
Europe’s tyre-derived pyrolysis oil spot prices
fell this week following discussions of
increased availability as pilot plants continue
to scale, coupled with pressure from low-priced
offers from overseas – particularly Asia.
Europe May benzene contract drops in weaker
market
The Europe benzene May contract price has
settled at €1,117/tonne, down by €151/tonne
from April and snapping an uptrend
that began in January.
European polyols market bearish as demand
pressures continue
Demand for polyols in the European market
remains under pressure, as major end sectors
are facing difficulties, however there are
different views for consumption going into May.
Gas06-May-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week
ended 3 April 2024.
Asian BD discussions under pressure as buying
slows down
By Ai Teng Lim 03-May-24 11:06 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asian spot butadiene (BD) import
discussions are slipping due to slowing demand,
fueled by holiday closures this week and
persistent external macroeconomic headwinds.
SABIC Q1 net income falls 62%, warns of
industry overcapacity
By Nurluqman Suratman 02-May-24 10:55 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–SABIC’s net income fell by 62% year on
year to Saudi Riyal (SR) 250 million in the
first quarter amid a drop in prices and sales
volumes, the chemicals major said late on
Wednesday.
CHINAPLAS ’24: PODCAST: China’s polymer
industry targeting high-end products amid
fierce competition
By Zhibo Xiao 30-Apr-24 16:17 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–ICIS analysts Sijia Li, Yvonne Shi,
Zhibo Xiao, Lucy Shuai, Joanne Wang and Cindy
Qiu discuss the trends in China’s polyolefins
and polyester markets.
China domestic acetic acid demand to weaken;
sellers eye more exports
By Jady Ma 30-Apr-24 11:25 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s domestic acetic acid market may
face headwinds from increased supply and weaker
demand in May after generally firming up in
April, while producers are exporting more
volumes.
Asia BPA makers will not increase run rates
until margins improve
By Li Peng Seng 29-Apr-24 12:25 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asian bisphenol A (BPA) makers are
expected to stay entrenched in the months ahead
despite falling Chinese imports, as they seek
to combat firm feedstock costs.
Saudi Aramco, Chinese Rongsheng plan
liquids-to-chemicals JV in Jubail
By Nurluqman Suratman 29-Apr-24 11:55 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Saudi energy giant Aramco and Chinese
Rongsheng Petrochemical are planning a joint
venture liquid-to-chemicals expansion project
in Jubail, Saudi Arabia.
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