Niger coup unlikely to hamper EDF’s nuclear fuel supply

LONDON (ICIS)–The military coup in Niger toppling the government of president Mohamed Bazoum on 26 July is unlikely to significantly impact EDF’s nuclear fuel supply in the short term, although a shift towards other key uranium suppliers with a lower geopolitical risk might be seen in the coming years.

A French power trader told ICIS any impact in the short term is unlikely, with only a limited potential support to the Year 2025 product as EDF might have already secured enough nuclear fuel supply for the two years ahead.

Risks are that France state-owned Orano (formerly Areva) – a multinational company active in uranium mining in Niger and a key supplier of nuclear fuel to EDF – could slow its activities in the unstable Nigerien territory.

Over the last weeks, Niger’s air and land borders have been closed, which could hamper the transit of its uranium via Benin to be shipped to France.

However, Riccardo Pennisi, political analyst at Aspen Institute Italia, noted that these restrictions will likely be a temporary measure and the link to Benin should reopen soon.

The military junta led by Niger’s self-declared head of state Abdourahamane Tiani named Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, the former economy minister of the Bazoum’s regime, as prime minister, in a sign of political distension.

“Despite a widespread anti-French sentiment across the population in the Sahel area, French companies continue to operate even in Mali, where the local opposition is stronger. Therefore the uranium mines in Niger and the connection to Benin should not be at huge risk,” Pennisi said.

Orano recently indicated that the activities on the operational site of Arlit and at the headquarters in the capital Niamey were continuing with measures adapted within the framework of the curfew established on the whole Nigerien territory.

On 8 August, an Orano spokesperson told ICIS activities continued with increased vigilance, while the curfew and organisational measures to adapt to it have been lifted.

The geopolitical expert denied the new regime might take the control over uranium mines or increase its ownership share.

“Threatening the control over the uranium mines would be a political suicide for the new military regime,” Pennisi warned.

“One thing the new regime could do is increasing the taxation on uranium exports, which was set at 5% until the 1990s and later rose to roughly 12-15%, although the latter taxation level was never fully implemented by the authorities,” Pennisi noted.

Niger could also menace to allow other countries to exploit its uranium resources should the new regime push an anti-French agenda.

EDF URANIUM MIX

EDF told ICIS that every year it buys nearly 7,000 tonnes of uranium, as well as all the associated transformation services: conversion, enrichment, manufacture of fuel assemblies and fuel recycling.

“This represents almost 10% of global demand. To ensure a secure supply of fuel for nuclear power plants, EDF maximises the diversification of its geographical sources and suppliers.”

A document published by EDF in June 2022 detailed that uranium extracted in Niger accounted for 17% of its supply, while Canada was the top supplier with 21%.

However, a document produced by the French energy ministry for the High Committee for Transparency and Information on Nuclear Security (HCTISN) on 16 June 2023, indicated that the share of uranium from Niger in France was much higher at 35% in 2020 and 34% in 2021.

According to Pennisi, Nigerien uranium might represent 20-25% of the French supply mix and Niger is the top supplier to the EU.

When contacted by ICIS to provide more transparency regarding the amount of Nigerien uranium in its mix, EDF said that “given the confidential nature” of its supply diversification strategy, it is not disclosing details on its supply sources.

EDF stressed that it is not dependent on any site, company or country to ensure security of supply, proving resilient amid recent crises such as the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine.