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LONDON (ICIS)–There is obvious urgency behind the call on Friday by 31 trade associations for the EU to be clear on how it legally views chemical recycling and how recycled content is tracked in plastic products. It is the tracking of recycled content that is a major issue with industry pressing for the legal acknowledgement of a mass balance approach that excludes fuel use. “Mass balance is a transparent and auditable method to trace a defined material characteristic along the value-chain from material suppliers to consumers,” the trade associations, which represent chemical producers, plastics converters, recyclers and end-use industries, claim. “A mass balance chain of custody is already used and accepted in other domains such as sustainable forestry products and fair-trade cocoa and chocolate,” they said. Essentially, this is push for policy support from the European Commission and EU member states for chemical recycling that could help speed investment and add more overall plastic recycling capability. “The rules currently being developed for the Single-Use Plastics Directive (SUPD) implementing act will have a key impact on both mechanical and chemical recycling investments in Europe,” the associations said. The timelines for targets set out in frameworks such as the proposed Packaging and Packaging Waste directive, which set out goals for chemical recycling capacity by 2030 and 2040, will require the sector to  begin work on commercial-scale production facilities immediately, according to the associations. “It is therefore key that policymakers set a precedent as to when and how a mass balance chain of custody in recycled plastics will be applied in the EU sooner rather than later,” the trade groups said “This precedent should also set the direction of policy in non-packaging sectors such as automotive or construction, where recycled plastics targets are currently under discussion or may arise in the future.” There are clear concerns over the mass balance approach to approximating the recycled content of individual plastic items and customer acceptance is critical. If recycling capacity is to grow however, and the move towards greater plastics circularity accelerated, then clearer policy support is required. The industry view is that the mass balance model can be based on credible third-party verification and certification. Chemicals trade group Cefic says that process losses and outputs, consumed as energy, should not count towards the recycled content targets. “We need all up- and down-stream levers to be deployed, including both mechanical and chemical recycling, to create a circular plastics economy,” added Plastics Europe Managing Director Virginia Janssens on Friday, noting that chemical recycling is the only avenue for reusing certain kinds of plastic waste and to reach quality levels needed for some end markets. “ However, the complexity of the European plastics system, and long-investment cycles, mean investment decisions taken now will determine what the industry looks like in 2050,” she said. Janssens added: “To accelerate the growth of chemical recycling, investors need the confidence provided by a full recognition of chemical recycling and acceptance of the mass balance model by EU policy makers. The window of opportunity to make investment decisions is rapidly closing.” According to Helen McGeough, senior analyst for plastic recycling at ICIS, the open letter is the latest call from the recycling value chain for greater legal certainty from regulators. “The chain is set to invest or seek investment to expand capabilities which will ultimately improve supply of recycled materials and move higher volumes of plastic waste away from the lower echelons of the waste hierarchy and requires this certainty to support those investment decisions,” she said. “The supply chain wants and needs to have clarity on how to prove recycled content, for reporting purposes both legally required and expected from consumers,” she added. At present the sector lacks a standardised approach, according to McGeough, with the commonly-used methodology behind mass balance remaining contentious. “The open letter suggests the use of mass balance for recycling, but it remains unclear from the letter whether the mass balance approach is suggestion application not only to chemical recycling, but to mechanical recycling as well where it is generally not adopted in the same way,” she said. In mechanical recycling mass balance can also refer to the process of using a credit system to substitute the use of recycled material in one end-use for another in order to meet sustainability targets, according to McGeough. “This can generate criticism for failing to fundamentally encourage tangible growth in recycling, increasing claims of greenwashing by the sector.” she said. The concept of greenwashing is coming under increasing scrutiny in the EU, with regulators this week announcing a stronger push on eliminating the practice as deadlines to reach certain thresholds for recycling and carbon abatement draw closer. At present, many of the systems for quantifying decarbonisation and waste-reduction remain fragmented, with McKinsey noting that the environmental, social and governance (ESG) space is currently similar to the state financial reporting was in a century ago. Systems are likely to become more standardised over time, but the complexity of chemical – and even mechanical – makes the process a complex one, with few easy answers. “Although harmonisation in the recycling sector is needed in many areas, in terms of standardising recycled content measurement this is challenging to resolve by a one size fits all approach for a complex industry, where the routes to recycle – and mechanisms involved in each – vary so much.” concluded McGeough. Insight article by Nigel Davis. Additional reporting by Helen McGeough.

LONDON (ICIS)–The ICIS Northwest Europe ammonia-to-hydrogen assessment fell back below the €5/kg mark for the first time in almost two years during week 12 as ammonia pricing slid further down in value. The ammonia-to-hydrogen northwest Europe assessment fell by another €0.23/kg week-on-week to €4.80/kg on 23 March, the first time the assessment has been below €5/kg since the latter part of June 2021. Natural gas-based hydrogen production methods also posted losses in their value. However, with the key TTF hub largely steady during the week, losses were limited and not as pronounced as those on the ammonia-to-hydrogen assessment. Both front-month based unabated steam methane reforming (SMR) and low carbon autothermal reforming (ATR) hydrogen production held discounts of €1.09-€1.40/kg below imported ammonia-for-hydrogen. AMMONIA MARKET Global demand for ammonia has remained subdued, with no shortage of the product in northwest Europe and weak demand for finished products. Weaker gas hub prices have seen ammonia production continue to increase after dropping during the high hub price, limiting requirements for imports and lending itself to a loose market. However, demand expectations could potentially return in Turkey, where enquiries for product have been heard as a result of the low prices. GAS MARKET The ICIS Dutch TTF April ’23 contract was largely rangebound during the week, hovering around the €43/MWh mark with prompt prices on the NBP finding support at 100p/therm. Predominantly mild temperatures are forecast to remain over much of Europe heading into the beginning of April. Nonetheless, some support has come from weaker LNG regasification rates in France due to strike action. With the Summer ’23 contract due to expire at the end of March and a large storage overhang on the horizon, there is potential for some volatility during week 13 as market participants decide to close out the front season or take volume into spot delivery.

LONDON (ICIS)–Germany and Denmark have signed a joint declaration of intent on the cooperation on renewable hydrogen and the realisation of a land-based cross-border hydrogen pipeline. The pipeline, connecting northern Germany and western Denmark, is slated to be operational by 2028. Denmark is seeking to have between 4GW and 6GW of electrolysis capacity by 2030 and is aiming to be a net exporter of certified renewable hydrogen, mainly driven by electricity generated via wind turbines. Germany, according to its National Hydrogen Strategy, is expecting hydrogen demand to reach 90-110TWh/year by 2030 and is set to import the vast majority of the hydrogen used. Germany earlier this year joined the H2Med pipeline project which is set to see 2 million tonnes/year of renewable hydrogen be moved between Portugal, Spain, France, and Germany. Furthermore, Germany has inked several memorandum of understandings (MoU) with multiple different countries in different global regions for the import of renewable hydrogen via ammonia, with some due to be delivered into the Port of Hamburg. The two countries will also assist in potential hydrogen infrastructure operators and users to design and implement their respective projects, support applications for funding via the Projects of Common Interest scheme, review renewable generation targets, coordinate European Union regulatory frameworks, support coordination between national regulatory authorities, and establish a balanced distribution of both costs and benefits. According to the REPowerEU regulation, the EU is seeking to produce 10 million tonnes/year of renewable hydrogen by 2030, and have the same number for renewable hydrogen imports from other regions.

LONDON (ICIS)–European oxo-alcohols market participants are bracing for a slow coatings season as economic turmoil continues. EU construction output is forecast to contract and coatings volume discussions failed to materialise in March. The coatings and construction seasons are likely to be weak and start slowly due to economic pressures Soft demand and downward price pressure has defined the oxo-alcohols market since the third quarter 2022 The coatings and construction sectors are key demand benchmarks in the European oxo-alcohols market. Both sectors normally have a seasonal peak in spring when temperatures are usually mild. The coatings sector typically gains traction in March. However, offtake from coatings has been weak and stable through the first quarter of 2023. Spot demand from the coatings sector is muted as buyers are widely covered by contractual volumes. At least one coatings buyer currently has a low production plan. Sources do not have any clear indication of when coatings volume requirements will pick up. Some are optimistic that discussions at the European Coatings Show (28-30 March) will lead to fresh spot interest. “Maybe next week, after the coatings show, we can see some more trends for the coatings season and the order book and the way forward,” said one coatings buyer. Other sources expect coatings the season will be even slower to start with some anticipating demand will not pick up until as late as the third quarter. One coatings manufacturer does not expect to see improved order intake in the near term and will start a planned maintenance on one production line in April. Whenever the coatings season does begin, it is not expected to be strong. High interest rates and inflationary pressures will likely weigh on demand for architectural and automotive coatings through the second and third quarters. “The major influence on demand in the near future will be inflation, and this is very likely to weigh on all end use sectors for oxo-alcohols,” said Gawaine Preston, ICIS polyolefin analyst. EU construction output is forecast to contract 0.8% this year, according to Oxford Economics. “When you see interest rates it is highly discouraging. No one wants to buy a house,” said one coatings buyer. “Like construction, automotive demand hinges on interest rates or rates of borrowing. The current macro environment of increasing interest rates is leading to a certain level of demand destruction,” explained Jincy Varghese, ICIS analyst. Participants in the NBA derivative markets are also closely monitoring coatings demand indications. In the downstream acrylate esters market, sellers are keen to see coatings activity pick up in Q2 as many buyers are currently utilising their contracted volumes and being cautious when it comes to buying stock and building inventories. “It’s very flat. It’s related to coatings demand and how the coatings market will evolve. We will need to wait until we see this pick up,” said one butyl glycol ethers seller. The consumption of oxo-alcohols has been slow through the second half of 2022 and first quarter of 2023 due to economic pressures and high uncertainty among buyers. Spot prices for all grades of oxo-alcohol have been steadily decreasing since the third quarter of 2022. NBA is a solvent with more than half of its production used as an intermediate chemical in the production of butyl acrylate (butyl-A) for paints, coatings and adhesives, or acetates and glycol ethers. 2-EH is used to make plasticizers. Focus article by Nicole Simpson Thumbnail shows construction site of the Olympic athletes’ village in Saint Denis, outside Paris, ahead of the 2024 Summer Games (image credit: Aurelien Morissard/AP/Shutterstock) 

LONDON (ICIS)–An increase in driving in the second quarter with the beginning of spring will boost demand in the base oils market, although the extent will be governed by the recovery in China and Europe. Europe news editor Morgan Condon talks to senior analyst Alessia Succi about the outlook for the base oils market for the rest of 2023. For more information visit our Price Forecasts | Provided by ICIS.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s Pengerang Energy Complex Sdn Bhd (PEC) expects to make a final investment decision (FID) on its $4.5bn petrochemical project in Johor in the second half of the year, when project financing is expected to be finalised, its CEO Alwyn Bowden told ICIS on Friday. “Equity portion is led by ChemOne Group along with its strategic partners,” Bowden said in an e-mailed response to ICIS queries. ChemOne is a Singapore-based petrochemicals, green energy and natural resources conglomerate. It had developed and arranged financing for Singapore’s Jurong Aromatics Complex, whose plant started up in 2014 and was eventually acquired by US energy giant ExxonMobil in 2017. PEC is ChemOne’s business unit that will operate and manage the proposed petrochemical complex in Johor. “The equity funding breakdown for the project will be disclosed upon financial investment decision (FID) in second half of 2023,” Bowden said. “The debt financing for the project launched into syndication in 2022 and the FID of the PEC is expected to conclude within this year as per financing terms and schedule agreed with leading Global Export Credit Agencies (ECAs), with export guarantee facilities close to $3bn to be available to support the project,” the PEC chief said. The PEC project will be capable of processing 150,000 bbl/day of condensate, which will, in turn, produce 2.3m tonnes/year of aromatics, 3.9m tonnes/year of energy products and 50,000 tonnes/year of hydrogen. “Engineering works for the Pengerang Energy Complex (PEC) is currently underway and the project is slated to be fully operational by late 2026,” Bowden said. The project is expected to produce around 2m tonnes/year of paraxylene (PX), whose main downstream industry is textiles. “From 2026, there will be a lot of traditional downstream capacity which will require paraxylene and there is also an inflection point predicted for China’s import requirements,” Bowden said. The project first announced in early 2020 was delayed from its original start-up timeline of Q4 2022, and the cost has gone up from the initial estimate of $3.4bn. “During the project finance phase, the world has experienced record oil price fluctuations, a global pandemic and geopolitical conflict. Each one of these events has required PEC to re-analyse the project completely to ensure the project is structured in a way that can withstand such events and remain profitable at every level,” Bowden said. “Despite these events creating obstacles and causing delays, it has helped the PEC to futureproof the profitability of the project,” he added. Interview article by Pearl Bantillo Click here to read the Ukraine topic page, which examines the impact of the conflict on oil, gas, fertilizer and chemical markets. Visit the ICIS Coronavirus topic page for analysis of the impact on chemical markets and links to latest news.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS senior industry analyst Anita Yang provides a brief outlook for China’s major refiners distillates exports in Q2 2023. Crude oil processing capacity losses estimated at 12.1m tonnes Domestic distillates demand to rise About 7.4m tonnes of distillates export quotas have not been used  

Updated at 09:00 GMT on 24 March. Please scroll down to see headlines. The war in Ukraine has caused oil and especially gas price volatility, as restricted flows from Russia to Ukraine caused values to spike to record-breaking levels. Since December 2022, unseasonably mild winter weather hit demand, reversing gas prices though  they remain above long-term averages. Millions of tonnes of chemical and fertilizer production are offline across Europe thanks to the elevated gas prices and poor macro-economic conditions which have impacted demand. India is facing a shortage of fertilizers and edible oil amid wide-ranging trade disruptions as the Ukraine war rages on, with financial sanctions tightening on Russia. Europe’s energy challenge is immense and put into stark relief by the response to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Cutting the ties that bind EU and non-EU nations to Russian gas and oil will be extremely painful this year and in years to come. This topic page examines the impact of the Ukraine conflict on oil, gas, fertilizer and chemical markets. Image credit Vadim Ghirda/AP/Shutterstock Europe’s energy markets witnessed a year of record prices and extreme volatility in 2021. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to more difficult conditions for global markets since then. GAS SUMMARY Gas storage remains robust in Europe, winter demand has fallen thanks to mild weather Record shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe so far in 2022/23 LNG plus Norwegian, Algerian, Azerbaijani pipeline imports compensate for Russian supply shortfall Europe LNG processing operating at full capacity Nord Stream I and II pipelines damaged by explosions, zero flows to Europe EU implements voluntary 15% cut to consumption, industry may face much tougher reductions AMMONIA SUMMARY Russia supplies 20% of global seaborne ammonia market Disrupted supply has pushed up fertilizer and food prices OIL SUMMARY Friendship oil pipeline flows through Ukraine Russian oil feeds around a quarter of Europe demand Europe seeks to end reliance on Russian crude oil EU agrees ban on seaborne imports from 5 December 2022, petroleum products from 5 February 2023 From 5 December Russian crude oil cargoes will only be insured if subject to price cap CHEMICALS SUMMARY High Europe gas, electricity prices force capacity closures Volatile oil and feedstock prices dent chemical producer margins Elevated oil, gas prices dent consumer confidence and demand Prospect of recession, more cheap imports from Asia Europe is heavily reliant on Russian gas and exposed to disruptions in supply,  but Russia is also an important oil exporter and a supplier of fossil fuel products, which find their way to international markets via Ukraine’s ports. Sanctions and measures against Russian exports of oil and gas have sent shockwaves across the global economy, lifting the cost of living, impacting industrial and agricultural production and potentially leading to social unrest. How vulnerable are energy and energy-related Russian supplies to disruptions? Europe has historically depended for close to 40% of its annual gas consumption on Russian supplies, imported via four routes – Ukraine, Belarus-Poland as well as the Nord Stream 1 and TurkStream corridors linking Russia to Germany and Turkey via the Baltic and Black Sea, respectively. Overall Russian pipeline supplies were limited throughout 2021 and further reduced in 2022. By the end of last year Russian pipeline supplies fell to less than 10% of Europe’s total gas imports compared to 40% in the previous year. Russian volumes shipped through Ukraine to Europe are now at third of what they should be as part of a five-year transit agreement Russia has banned exports of gas to several EU countries, and the Nord Stream I and II pipelines have been damaged. European petrochemicals players face even higher gas prices as a result. Fertilizer companies – where gas can account for 80% of costs – have been forced to curtail production. Chemicals are also now affected, especially those with high exposure to gas prices through utilities or feedstocks. If the conflict escalates, Ukraine transit pipelines may come under attack but disruptions could be limited because the infrastructure has been built to grant flexibility, allowing the operator to reroute flows away from potentially damaged segments. AMMONIA IMPACT The Togliatti-Azot pipeline, the world’s longest ammonia pipeline stretching 2,471km from the Togliatti Azot plant in Russian Samara Oblast to the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Yuzhny, could be caught up in the cross-fire. Russian ammonia supplies account for around 20% of the global seaborne merchant ammonia market each month. Around two thirds of those volumes are exported via Yuzhny, with the rest reaching European and global markets via Baltic ports. Ammonia is a prime material for fertilizers, so curtailments could potentially lead to higher food prices and shortages. Ammonia market players are scrambling to cover positions and assess options as the Russian invasion of Ukraine saw loadings at the key export hub of Yuzhny halted with immediate effect. Russian nitrogen fertilizer major Togliatti confirmed the suspension of the transit of ammonia to the Black Sea port via pipeline to ensure the safety of people living in the vicinity of the lengthy conduit. OIL PIPELINES VULNERABLE Supplies on the world’s longest oil pipeline, the Friendship (Druzhba) pipeline, could be threatened if the conflict leads to tough sanctions. The pipeline carries oil from central Russia 4,000km west to Ukraine and Belarus and runs close to the Belarus-Ukraine border. Russia exports around 5m bbl/day, of which half are exported to Europe, including via this pipeline. Russian oil accounts for about a quarter of Europe’s consumption, with the Druzhba pipeline carrying close to 1m bbl/day. Should sanctions be imposed and exports hindered, Europe will need to secure alternative cargoes from the global market. Europe consumed most exports of Urals, Russia’s biggest export grade, in 2021 after Saudi Arabia boosted market share in China. Almost 10m tonnes of Urals went through Rotterdam in the first half of last year, up 2m tonnes on 2020. Germany stands most exposed because it gets 25% of its oil from Russia. CHEMICALS IMPACT Gas and electricity are important components in the production costs of many chemicals. Surging gas and feedstock prices in Europe have caused big hikes in contract and spot prices. Now millions of tonnes of fertilizer and chemical capacity are offline in Europe. Click on the image to enlarge it ICIS has also created an interactive timeline which shows the history of the gas impact since July 2021. These products have been most badly affected by outages in Europe, with more than half of capacity offline or running at reduced rates in some cases. Analysis by the ICIS Margin Analytics team shows the products which are most exposed to energy and gas prices in Europe as a feedstock or utility. Europe is at a competitive disadvantage to other regions and some customers are seeking new sources of lower-priced supply, especially from Asia and the Middle East. The conflict in Ukraine has pushed European gas prices back up to record levels, forcing exposed chemical producers to cease production, or add further energy surcharges. Rising oil prices since late 2021 have already put chemical margins under pressure, and volatility has continued into 2022. As oil and naphtha prices soared, margins for ethylene production based on naphtha went negative for the first time ICIS record began. The are now are swinging wildy in tandem with oil price movements. Chemical producers are struggling to pass on increasing feedstock and energy costs in Europe. Elevated oil and gas prices also dent downstream consumer confidence and spending, with recession a possibility later in 2022 or 2023. What contingency plans are being put in place? Europe prepared for a difficult winter although rising storage fullness levels, falling demand and more import capacity for liquefied natural gas (LNG) have helped it get by, assuming there will not be an extensive cold spell. As of 6 March, storage facilities across Europe were 54% full compared with just 20% last March. Some 30bn cubic meters of new capacity were added between September 2022 and March 2023. The capacity includes offshore terminals in the Netherlands, Germany and Estonia/Finland. Demand has been decreasing by more than 20% in the industrial sector in north-west European countries and by 20-30% for households in Germany, according to official data. Nevertheless, there is a possibility that Russia may completely stop its gas supplies to Europe via the last two remaining routes – Ukraine and Turkey, which could lop off some 70 cubic meters of Russian gas entering Europe daily. In such a scenario, the most affected countries would be those in eastern and central Europe, which are landlocked and have been struggling to secure regasified LNG from importing countries. For oil markets, in case of an attack but no international sanctions, the worst-case scenario would be for approximately 240,000 bbl/day of lost Russian exports via Ukraine. There are other seaborne routes, including the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Gas rationing – impact on Europe petrochemicals, fertilizers Embattled European fertilizer and petrochemical producers may be the first in line to cut gas consumption if the region experiences a cold snap in the weather. Russia, Europe’s largest gas supplier, has been limiting exports to less than a quarter of its deliveries two years ago and may stop them altogether amid its political stand-off with the EU. Policymakers recommend voluntary reductions but say these would become mandatory in case of a supply emergency jeopardising the bloc’s security. DEMAND REDUCTION The EU’s largest consumers include households, accounting for 37% of total demand, electricity and heat generation covering around 30% and industrial consumption accounting for another 30%. Record high gas prices and an ongoing gas supply crunch over the least year had forced consumers to limit or stop production or seek import substitution globally. The mild winter has alleviated this situation. FERTILIZERS The fertilizer sector, one of the most gas-intensive industries, has also been one of the most affected so far as gas can account for up to 80% of production costs. Production has been cut back drastically because it is no longer economic. PETROCHEMICALS On the petrochemicals side, there are now deep production cuts for products such as methyl methacrylate (MMA) and melamine which are heavily exposed to natural gas for utilities or as a feedstock. Producers are making detailed plans for rationing, particularly in Germany, where the chemicals and pharmaceuticals industry uses about 140 TWh per year, or about 15 percent of Germany’s gas consumption. Gas is mainly used by petrochemicals to generate energy such as electricity and steam as well as to fire furnaces for production complexes such as crackers. Sites are able to lower operating rates significantly, but they may be forced to close if gas supplies drop so much that production becomes uneconomic or difficult from a technical perspective. Companies with flexibility are switching from natural gas to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) or other sources of energy. Ukraine conflict threatens Europe oil supply, chemicals production With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sanctions could cut supplies of crude oil through the Druzhba pipeline, threatening oil refinery operations and chemicals production at installations in Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland and the former East Germany. Russian oil supplies up to a quarter of Europe’s crude imports, with refineries in central and eastern Europe, which are attached to the Druzhba pipeline, particularly reliant on these supplies. Any interruption to these supplies could force refineries to reduce operating rates unless they can find alternative supplies. Analysis of the ICIS Supply & Demand database shows that the countries Druzhba runs through, except for Germany, are reliant on Russian crude oil for more than half of their imports, led by Slovakia which obtained 96% of its supplies from Russia in 2021. Chemical production downstream of refineries in these countries could be impacted by any reduction in operating rates. The ICIS data forecast that for 2022, 2.79m tonnes of ethylene (11% of total European capacity) and 2.34m tonnes of propylene (12% of total European capacity) are reliant on refineries located along the Druzhba pipeline. While some alternative sources of crude oil could be sourced, it is unlikely normal levels of operations could be maintained. Michael Connolly, ICIS Principal Analyst Refining said: “Although many have built alternate sources, keeping full operating rates would be difficult for them as they rely on a consistent and reliable source of crude. Most refiners in Europe are aware of the risk of Russian crude and over the past 5-10 years have tried to reduce their dependence, or at least to build some capability to have an alternate supply – it doesn’t mean they would be unaffected, but there should be a little bit of resilience, depending on the site.” Connolly explained that some land-locked refineries along the Druzhba pipeline have built pipelines to the coast, allowing alternative sources of crude oil to be sourced. However, these pipelines may not have capacity to feed the whole refinery. A spokesperson for Grupa LOTOS said: “The LOTOS refinery has dealt with suspended supplies by land before. Due to the contamination of Russian oil with chlorines, PERN, the state-owned operator of transmission and storage infrastructure, had to completely discontinue the transmission of crude oil from the eastern direction between 24 April and 9 June 2019.” He added that scheduling of oil supplies by sea helped to secure volumes sufficient to maintain an unchanged level of throughput and maximise fuel production. UKRAINE CHEMICALS UNDER THREAT With Russian forces present in Ukraine, chemical and fertilizer facilities may be threatened by physical damage, interrupted power and gas supplies or logistics disruption. Kalush cracker closed Karpatnaftohkhim’s cracker at Kalush has been closed down because of the imposition of martial law in Ukraine. It has capacity (tonnes/year) of 250,000 (ethylene); 117,000 (propylene) 110,000 (LLDPE), 300,000 (PVC), 100,000 (benzene). Black Sea export hub closed  Ammonia market players have scrambled to cover positions and assess options as the Russian invasion of Ukraine saw loadings at the key export hub of Yuzhny halted with immediate effect. Russian nitrogen fertilizer major Togliatti confirmed the suspension of the transit of ammonia to the Black Sea port via pipeline to ensure the safety of people living in the vicinity of the lengthy conduit. The Samara Oblast-based giant also confirmed the shut down of four of its seven ammonia units, with the other three plants operating at reduced rates. Russia export disruptions to shift global trade flows, future capacities threatened Disruptions to Russia’s chemicals and polymers exports will change trade flows, particularly to Europe and Asia, as international sanctions, lack of logistics and even “self-sanctions” limit volumes. While Russia’s capacities are relatively small on a global scale, they can still have a significant impact on regional markets if these exports are disrupted. Key Russia exports include methanol, polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), styrene and paraxylene (PX). Russia has increased exports of high density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) in particular in 2020 and 2021 as new capacity started up from SIBUR’s ZapSibNeftekhim complex in Tobolsk in 2020. LATEST HEADLINES Asia petrochemicals demand tepid on macroeconomy, oversupply concerns By Nurluqman Suratman 24-Mar-23 14:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical markets continue to face tepid demand as economic recovery in regional bellwether China remains slower than initially expected, with new production capacities adding to oversupply concerns. NE Asia C2 producers mull higher output for May on improved margin By Yeow Pei Lin 24-Mar-23 12:27 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene (C2) supply for May could be boosted by improved production margins following recent declines in feedstock naphtha costs. Eurelectric criticises proposed market reforms By Gretchen Ransow 24-Mar-23 01:54 LONDON (ICIS)–Electricity sector federation Eurelectric has raised concerns about proposed EU electricity market reforms, calling some of the proposals premature and in need of more consideration. European acrylates subdued with underwhelming demand By Mathew Jolin-Beech 24-Mar-23 01:26 LONDON (ICIS)–The European acrylates markets are all currently subdued with demand described as “soft.” Dutch fuel switching to gas likely to continue in April By Rian Flanagan 24-Mar-23 00:35 LONDON (ICIS)–Fuel switching optimisation from hard coal to natural gas prompted by falling wholesale power and gas prices is expected to continue into April despite French nuclear woes, sources have told ICIS. UK likely to maintain power import position through April By Anna Coulson 23-Mar-23 22:50 LONDON (ICIS)–Widening spreads between UK power and European counterpart front-month contracts show that the UK is likely to maintain a net import position from the continent  through April. CDI Economic Summary: US regional banking crisis lowers odds of soft landing By Joseph Chang 23-Mar-23 22:21 NEW YORK (ICIS)–The failure of two sizeable banks (Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank) in the US and the crisis of confidence contagion spreading to other regional banks and now European financial institutions threatens to significantly tighten lending conditions at the very least, further slowing economic growth and potentially tipping US and European economies into recession. Philippine central bank hikes interest rates anew as inflation stays elevated By Pearl Bantillo 23-Mar-23 20:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Philippines’ central bank hiked its policy interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday with inflation expected to remain elevated and projected to average higher than the target this year. PODCAST: Less LNG, more nuclear power for Japan this summer? By Yun Xie 23-Mar-23 20:02 SINGAPORE (ICIS) – Over 5.3m tonnes of Japanese long-term LNG contracts are up for expiry in 2023 at a time when last year’s largest buyer plans to reduce LNG procurement and boost nuclear and renewable power generation. Asia PMDI import markets bearish on poor downstream demand By Shannen Ng 23-Mar-23 15:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian import markets for polymeric methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) were dominated by largely bearish sentiment in the week ended 22 March. PODCAST: Asia, Mideast PS demand tepid on competitive imports, feedstock volatility By Damini Dabholkar 23-Mar-23 11:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian and Middle Eastern polystyrene (PS) markets are seeing slow demand with regional supply remaining relatively unchanged. INSIGHT: US Fed undeterred from 2% inflation goal means more tough times ahead for chemicals By Joseph Chang 23-Mar-23 05:34 NEW YORK (ICIS)–Even amid a regional banking crisis, the US Federal Reserve remains undeterred in its goal of bringing inflation down to its 2% target. This was evidenced by another 0.25 percentage point rate hike and will mean weakening economic conditions, a lower chance of a soft landing and a more challenging demand environment for chemicals going forward. Phenol energy surcharges will start to disappear on lower TTF, but no demand improvement seen By Jane Gibson 23-Mar-23 00:57 LONDON (ICIS)–Falling upstream gas prices may offer chemical sellers and buyers some relief but the impact on demand levels has yet to be significant. PODCAST: Plunging shipping rates point to normalising global logistics, Europe under pressure By Will Beacham 22-Mar-23 22:58 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Steep falls in container shipping rates indicate that the pandemic-induced logistics crisis may be drawing to a close, but this now makes Europe more vulnerable to a flood of cheap imports from Asia. US R-PET buying sentiment weakens in wake of banking crisis By Arianne Perez 22-Mar-23 20:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian exporters of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) cargoes are expected to continue to see cautious buying from converters in the US following the banking crisis. INSIGHT: New PE/PP capacities risk derailing nascent Asia polyolefin recovery By Izham Ahmad 22-Mar-23 17:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A wave of new polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) supply in Asia is threatening to upend the tentative demand recovery the region has been experiencing since the end of the Lunar New Year holidays as new suppliers fight to establish market share in an increasingly crowded market. Asia polyamide 6,6 Q2 mood darkened by fiscal year closing, demand outlook By Josh Quah 22-Mar-23 13:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s nylon polyamide 6,6 (PA66) markets remain weak, ahead of turnarounds coming up for some producers in northeast Asia. China PP prices fall to nearly three-year low amid increasing supply, lower-than-expected demand By Lucy Shuai 22-Mar-23 12:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China polypropylene (PP) prices fell to a nearly three-year-low amid increasing supply and lower-than-expected demand, and the market may remain under pressure in Q2. Asia naphtha swings to multi-month lows on volatile crude By Melanie Wee 21-Mar-23 13:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s naphtha markets can expect heightened volatility, largely tracking crude oil futures movement, as demand prospects are being weighed down by market jitters over the health of the global banking system. PODCAST: Subdued spot trading activity in Europe’s oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets By Marion Boakye 21-Mar-23 03:35 LONDON (ICIS)–Throughout March – the oxo-alcohols and derivative markets in Europe have experienced weak spot demand, ample supply, and thin import opportunities. Europe and US projects may continue increasing Brazil ethanol exports in the long term By Daniel Lopes 21-Mar-23 03:06 HOUSTON (ICIS)–In times of extremely volatile international oil prices, particularly in oil exploration and distribution, Brazil’s ethanol has proven to be a great renewable energy source. INSIGHT: Constrained consumer budgets limit demand for major chemicals consuming sectors By Nigel Davis 21-Mar-23 00:49 LONDON (ICIS)–This is by no means an easy time for chemical producers as the industry’s major downstream markets continue to be influenced by the impact on demand of rising costs and higher interest rates. Europe’s chemical sector shrinks – battered by high costs, poor demand and cheaper imports By Will Beacham 20-Mar-23 23:10 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Collapsing Q4 profits and losses for European chemical majors, together with low expectations for 2023, show just how badly the sector is still suffering. Europe markets firm after emergency UBS Credit Suisse purchase By Tom Brown 20-Mar-23 20:15 LONDON (ICIS)–European markets firmed on Monday after Switzerland-based banking group UBS announced plans to acquire embattled rival Credit Suisse, raising market hopes that banking sector contagion may be limited. Global weekly spot IPEX down on price declines across regions By Will Beacham 20-Mar-23 19:11 LONDON (ICIS)–The global weekly spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) fell by 2.0% week on week on the back of lower index values across regions. PODCAST: Asian PP markets grapple with increased supply, lower-than-expected demand in 2023 By Damini Dabholkar 20-Mar-23 19:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian polypropylene (PP) markets are being challenged by increasing capacity in 2023, especially in the China market, while demand continues to recover more slowly than expected. Crude dips to lowest since December 2021 on banking sector turmoil By James Dennis 20-Mar-23 17:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Crude prices declined on Monday to their lowest levels since December 2021 before recovering on growing financial concerns following equity market losses and instability in the banking sector in Asian trading. China is promoting a new domestic gas price mechanism By Yueyi Yang 20-Mar-23 15:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s National Development and Reform Commission ( NDRC ) is developing a gas upstream and downstream price linkage mechanism to secure gas supply and help suffering city gas companies. Asia petrochemical shares, oil prices weaken after UBS rescue of Credit Suisse By Nurluqman Suratman 20-Mar-23 12:43 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia were mostly weaker and crude futures fell on Monday on fears of a banking crisis contagion, as troubled Credit Suisse was rescued by its Swiss rival UBS in a government-backed deal. INSIGHT: European TiO2 operations at risk, but China may not be the answer By Heidi Finch 17-Mar-23 17:53 LONDON (ICIS)–While energy costs in Europe are more relaxed  compared with 2022 peaks, the TiO2 marketand the wider chemical industry in Europe are still facing residual economic and demand headwinds. European production is at risk, while China/Asia capacity is increasing. Asia glycerine demand weighed down by caution after US bank collapse and turmoil By Helen Yan 17-Mar-23 11:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s glycerine spot demand has been weighed down by prevailing caution following the collapse of two mid-sized banks in the US and plunging bank stocks in Europe. NE Asia June C2 supply to tighten on limited US arrivals, regional outages By Yeow Pei Lin 17-Mar-23 11:23 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene (C2) supply for June delivery could tighten due to limited tonnage for US-Asia trade and a heavy slate of regional cracker overhauls. INSIGHT: Banking contagion threatens to spread, hit chemicals demand hard By Joseph Chang 17-Mar-23 05:47 NEW YORK (ICIS)–The failure of two sizeable banks (Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank) in the US and the crisis of confidence contagion spreading to other US regional banks and now European financial institutions threatens to significantly tighten lending conditions at the very least, further slowing economic growth and potentially tipping the US and European economies into recession. ICIS ANALYST VIEW: The potential of two-way CfDs in the market reform By Matthew Jones 17-Mar-23 02:23 LONDON (ICIS)–One of the key policies in the European commission electricity market design reform proposals is for two-way CfDs to be the exclusive form of government support for new renewables. INSIGHT: LyondellBasell reveals strategy to raise earnings by 59% by ’27 By Al Greenwood 17-Mar-23 00:05 HOUSTON (ICIS)–LyondellBasell’s CEO mapped out on Tuesday the strategy that the company will follow that it expects will increase earnings by 59% in 2027, one that will become more open to profit-boosting operational improvements and sustainable projects while remaining faithful to its legacy as a safe, reliable and producer that is conscious about cost. China’s PO prices fall after spikes, eyes on supply changes By Floria Dai 16-Mar-23 15:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–After spiking to over Chinese yuan (CNY) 10,000/tonne at the end of February/early March amid supply tightness, China’s domestic propylene oxide (PO) prices fell recently as downstream producers had largely completed procurement and held a wait-and-see attitude. Asia naphtha tumbles on tepid demand; crude oil losses By Melanie Wee 16-Mar-23 12:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia naphtha markets are under pressure on the back of fragile demand, while taking cues from global crude oil futures. INSIGHT: Banking woes rattle US chem shares By Al Greenwood 16-Mar-23 05:03 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Shares of US-listed chemical companies fell on Wednesday amid concerns about the implications of a string of bank failures. Coal prices lift slowing bearish run in Europe By Rian Flanagan 16-Mar-23 02:51 LONDON (ICIS)- Rotterdam coal prices have lifted from 7 March to 14 March although European coal profitability continues trending down for the front-month contract. INSIGHT: Small nuclear gaining ground as power provider for industry and the grid By Nigel Davis 16-Mar-23 00:44 LONDON (ICIS)–Small-scale nuclear fusion reactors could provide much needed power for the chemical industry as the transition is made towards cleaner and greener production technologies. Recessionary conditions to define H1, Q1 destocking still ‘palpable’ – LANXESS CEO By Tom Brown 15-Mar-23 21:15 COLOGNE (ICIS)–2023 will be a difficult for the chemicals sector, with market conditions likely to remain bleak through the end of the second quarter, the CEO of LANXESS Matthias Zachert said on Wednesday. Mideast-origin PE pipe grade discussions weighed down by snug supply By Zachary Tia 15-Mar-23 15:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Middle East-origin black polyethylene (PE) 100 pipe grade discussions in Asia and the Middle East were largely weighed down by generally snug supply. Dow aims to pivot to US cracker decarbonisation after Canada net zero project – CEO By Joseph Chang 15-Mar-23 04:24 NEW YORK (ICIS)–US-based Dow plans to quickly move to decarbonise its US cracker sites after building its net zero carbon emissions cracker project in Canada, as the necessary hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS) infrastructure should be available by then, its CEO said on Tuesday. LNG exports are positive for the US chemical industry – Dow CEO By Joseph Chang 15-Mar-23 00:30 NEW YORK (ICIS)–Increasing exports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) are positive for the US chemical industry as it will foster greater production of oil and gas, the CEO of US-based Dow said on Tuesday. INSIGHT: China growth ambitions deliver a reality check while financial risk multiplies By Nigel Davis 14-Mar-23 23:33 LONDON (ICIS)–Petrochemicals production turned up in January following months of decline, as demand started to improve and prospects for growth brightened. But the take-off, from a miserable few months at the end of 2022, was slower than some hoped for – as evidenced by capacity utilisation. Wacker braces for tougher H1 as energy, war, recessionary pressures bite By Tom Brown 14-Mar-23 21:49 LONDON (ICIS)–Wacker Chemie is bracing for a more bearish 2023 as economic headwinds continue to bite, with a slowdown in demand noticeable since Q4 last year and despite a record financial performance in 2022, CEO Christian Hartel said on Tuesday. Asia-US propylene arbitrage hopes hurt by high freight rates, plant restart By Julia Tan 14-Mar-23 19:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A recent gain in the US propylene market has rekindled hopes of increased arbitrage opportunities, with a growing number of traders keen to send Asia-origin cargoes to the US. They do, however, point out that high freight rates remain a major hurdle. Borouge targets developing Asia, Middle East and Africa – CEO By Tom Brown 13-Mar-23 21:13 LONDON (ICIS)–Borouge is looking to developing markets in Asia, the Middle East and Africa to drive growth, the CEO of the Abu Dhabi-based producer said following its initial public offering (IPO) last year. Saudi Aramco posts record ’22 profit on strong oil; sets higher ’23 capex at $45bn-55bn By Pearl Bantillo 13-Mar-23 15:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco has posted a record 2022 net profit of $161bn on strong oil prices, and plans to invest heavily in 2023, setting its capital expenditure at $45bn-55bn. Asia benzene optimism during peak turnaround season wanes By Angeline Soh 13-Mar-23 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia benzene optimism during the peak maintenance season starting March tumbled, as new plants started up amid procurement cutbacks due to margin losses in the derivative sectors. Japan probes domestic R-PET feedstock supply on record-high prices By Arianne Perez 10-Mar-23 12:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan has launched an investigation into the domestic supply of post-consumer bottle bale feedstock used to produce recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) after prices breached record levels in the second half of 2022. NE Asia C2 rangebound as weak China downstream collides with supply constraints By Yeow Pei Lin 10-Mar-23 11:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene (C2) import prices were little changed this week as the slow recovery in China’s downstream demand and a relatively healthy inflow of US cargoes counterbalanced regional supply curtailments. China February petrochemical markets weaken; March outlook cautious By Yvonne Shi 10-Mar-23 10:35 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical markets weakened in February as cautiousness persisted amid a slower-than-expected recovery in downstream demand and a subdued economic outlook. Hydrogen excels as storage for renewable power – Mitsubishi By Al Greenwood 10-Mar-23 05:26 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Mitsubishi is making a case for using green hydrogen as a combustion fuel for power plants because it is a practical way to store large amounts of renewable energy. Nuclear extensions add boost the UK’s security of supply By Anna Coulson 10-Mar-23 02:10 LONDON (ICIS)–EDF have confirmed life extensions at the Heysham 1 and Hartlepool nuclear power stations, with a combined capacity of 2.4GW, until March 2026. INSIGHT: US Congress may make it easier to issue pipeline permits By Al Greenwood 10-Mar-23 00:36 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US energy trade groups see an opening for reforming how the country issues permits for pipelines and other energy infrastructure because Congress is facing several pieces of legislation that it must pass this session. Europe epoxy sourcing from Asia still interesting; limited shifts By Heidi Finch 09-Mar-23 23:17 LONDON (ICIS)–While the Asia-Europe epoxy price gap has narrowed, it is still economically interesting for Europeans to source from Asia, especially from China. INSIGHT: European demand for toluene and MX could see periodic improvement By Zubair Adam 09-Mar-23 20:19 LONDON (ICIS)–Recent demand for toluene and mixed xylenes (MX) in Europe has been mainly spearheaded by interests as octane boosters, and there are some expectations that future bulk requirements will be supported from this application rather than from other downstream outlets. Japan Q4 GDP growth revised down to 0.4% on year, 0.1% on quarter By Pearl Bantillo 09-Mar-23 20:34 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.4% from an initial estimate of 0.6%, and narrowly avoided a technical recession with a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion, official data showed on Thursday. Asia MEG, DEG markets move in opposite directions, wide gap to sustain By Judith Wang 09-Mar-23 16:29 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices have been falling while diethylene glycol (DEG) spot prices have been rising, while the wide gap may continue in coming weeks. Coal front month profitability reaches new low By Rian Flanagan 09-Mar-23 02:40 LONDON (ICIS)–Rotterdam coal prices dropped significantly in the week to 8 March together with European coal profitability, which decreased due to falling gas and power prices and reaching a new low for the front month contract. INSIGHT: EU needs to provide greater clarity on regulation as transition pathway for chemical industry unfolds By Nigel Davis 08-Mar-23 23:05 LONDON (ICIS)–Chemical companies in Europe need greater clarity on at least the shape of the regulatory environment that will ultimately enable the wide-reaching goals of the EU’s Transition Pathway for the Chemical Industry. PVC market expects balanced-to-long March, activity rebound in Turkey By Chris Barker 08-Mar-23 23:04 LONDON (ICIS)–The European polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is balanced-to-long in early March, as market participants expect demand will remain below par through the month. PODCAST: EU market design reform – what to expect By Matthew Jones 08-Mar-23 22:17 LONDON (ICIS)– ICIS Director of Energy Analytics Matteo Mazzoni and Lead Analyst Matthew Jones discuss: what are the European Commission trying to achieve, current situation of PPAs, role of CfDs, main positions of the member states on key issues and what the outcome is likely to be. Weak demand, massive new capacities to weigh on China PE market By Sijia Li 08-Mar-23 15:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s domestic polyethylene (PE) market is expected to face headwinds from softer-than-expected demand recovery and intensive new plant start-ups in the first quarter of 2023. Asia MEC up on China and Middle East demand, EU arbitrage eyed By Keven Zhang 08-Mar-23 12:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Methylene chloride (MEC) in the key China market was higher for four consecutive weeks, supported by higher demand in local and overseas markets. No sign yet of coatings market restocking, stronger demand expected in H2 – Elementis chief By Tom Brown 08-Mar-23 00:04 LONDON (ICIS)–There is little sign of coatings market restocking after a period of inventory reduction across buyer industries in the second half of 2022 the CEO of Elementis said on Tuesday, with demand for that and other core sectors expected to firm in the second half of this year. PODCAST: China to add record-breaking chemicals capacity in 2023, global markets wary By Will Beacham 07-Mar-23 21:27 BARCELONA (ICIS)–This year, China will complete an unprecedented amount of petrochemical and fertilizer capacity, creating oversupply in some global markets and switching the country from net importer to an exporter in certain commodities. Asia etac lacks drive on macroeconomic uncertainty By Melanie Wee 07-Mar-23 16:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s ethyl acetate (etac) and butyl acetate (butac) markets are cushioned by moderate buying, although not particularly robust amid mixed views on demand growth. Softer PE prices in India despite tight GCC-origin supply By Nadim Salamoun 07-Mar-23 15:05 DUBAI (ICIS)–Polyethylene (PE) import prices for all grades decreased in the week ended 7 March, reflecting an overall bearish sentiment in the market. S Korea Q4 ’22 GDP contracts on quarter; full-year ’23 growth to slow on weak exports By Pearl Bantillo 07-Mar-23 13:50 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s economic output shrank by 0.4% in the October-December 2022 from the previous quarter, unchanged from advance estimates, as manufacturing and exports contracted amid a global economic slowdown. Asia MMA to draw strength from tightened supply, feedstock pressure By Jasmine Khoo 07-Mar-23 13:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian methyl methacrylate (MMA) sector has been affected by a slew of pessimistic market factors since late May 2022, but things are potentially looking up for this market in March. East Asia’s plasticizers’ cash margins in the red; frail demand seen By Li Peng Seng 07-Mar-23 12:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The cash margins of plasticizers in east Asia have been  mired in the negative zone since mid-January on the back of stubborn weak demand, and the lack of buying interest could linger on for some time. UK Government needs to support chems with energy costs or forfeit investments By Morgan Condon 07-Mar-23 01:05 LONDON (ICIS)–The UK’s Chemicals Industries Association (CIA) is urging the UK Government to increase financial aid for energy intensive industries in its Spring Budget or risk losing investment. INSIGHT: Q2 a potential inflection point for Europe PET as buyer interest grows By Caroline Murray 06-Mar-23 22:40 LONDON (ICIS)–The European polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market may be a stone’s throw away from a brighter outlook, after what has been an atrocious period for the industry. Global weekly spot IPEX edge up on price increases in the US Gulf By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 06-Mar-23 21:20 LONDON (ICIS)–The global weekly spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) was up by 0.3% week on week, on the back of higher index values in the US Gulf and despite a small decline in northeast Asia. Firming GCC PP/PE offers despite expected Ramadan slowdown By Nadim Salamoun 06-Mar-23 20:47 DUBAI (ICIS)–Despite an expected slowdown in market activities and demand in the region during mid-March to mid-April due to shorter Ramadan working hours and the Eid Ul-Fitr holiday, March’s regional offers from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) suppliers surfaced at higher levels than those of February. China sets 2023 GDP growth target at 5%, gas demand on watch By Yun Xie 06-Mar-23 15:29 SINGAPORE (ICIS) – China aims to achieve “ around 5% ” GDP growth target in 2023, primer Li Keqiang outlined in the Government Work Report (GWR) delivered at the weekend during the 2023 National People’s Congress in Beijing, with fossil fuel energy demand a key factor in the economic outlook. China sets conservative 5.0% GDP growth target; petrochemical markets cautious By Fanny Zhang 06-Mar-23 14:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has set its 2023 economic growth goal at around 5%, a conservative number underscoring an overall cautious outlook that sent crude prices falling on Monday after recent strong gains, while Chinese petrochemical futures markets largely mixed. China’s phenol-BPA spread sinks to over three-year low; bearishness to stay By Li Peng Seng 06-Mar-23 11:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s phenol to bisphenol A (BPA) spread has tanked to its lowest in more than three years on the back of persistent slow import demand for BPA, and the bearishness may last for a while more. Asian spot BD in flux on wild swings in buying appetite; outlook unclear By Ai Teng Lim 06-Mar-23 10:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian butadiene (BD) spot market was in flux recently, as opposing forces of supply constraints and lacklustre downstream demand wrestled to drive buying in multiple directions. Asia oleochemical players upbeat at key palm oil conference in Malaysia By Helen Yan 06-Mar-23 10:23 KUALA LUMPUR (ICIS)–Asia oleochemical producers expect demand to pick up amid a supply crunch just as China’s economy is rebounding as indicated by its upbeat February manufacturing data. SE Asia manufacturing outlook remains subdued despite Feb improvement By Nurluqman Suratman 03-Mar-23 13:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Southeast Asia’s manufacturing sector improved in February amid expansions in output and new orders, but the outlook remains subdued amid a slowing global economy. NE Asia Q2 C2 supply limited by turnarounds; increased US arrivals help fill gap in May By Yeow Pei Lin 03-Mar-23 12:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene (C2) supply in the second quarter will be curtailed by a heavy cracker turnaround schedule, with the regional capacity loss peaking in May. Robust uptake of Asian R-HDPE to continue as market sentiment improves By Arianne Perez 03-Mar-23 11:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A strong rebound in demand for Asian recycled high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) as March opens is expected to continue in the coming weeks as downstream buyers refill depleted inventories. Tsunami of chemical assets set to hit M&A market in H2 2023 – bankers By Joseph Chang 03 Mar-23 06:30 NEW YORK (ICIS)–A slew of chemical assets are poised to hit the M&A market by H2 2023 as business conditions improve and the financing market stabilises, investment bankers said on Thursday. INSIGHT: US chemicals policy goals target Superfund taxes, tariffs, rail By Al Greenwood 03-Mar-23 01:14 HOUSTON (ICIS)–The new Superfund taxes, the re-authorisation of a chemical-security programme, rail service and the revival of two tariff-relief programmes are among the biggest areas of US policies affecting the chemical industry this year, and they rank as the top priorities of the National Association of Chemical Distributors. Evonik’s strategy factors in uncertainty, volatility – CEO By Morgan Condon 03-Mar-23 00:43 DUSSELDORF (ICIS)–Back in 2020 the pandemic reshaped the landscape for the global chemicals industry, and even for the rest of 2023 it is likely to remain a moving part for producers. Import demand to lift Italian power Q2 ’23 premium to Hungary By David Battista 03-Mar-23 00:06 LONDON (ICIS)–The Italian Q2 ‘23 power contract is expected to remain at a premium to the Hungarian peer ahead of expiry, amid a tight fundamentals picture in Italy driving cross-border import demand. Global acetone supply tightens as phenol market fails to deliver By Jane Gibson 02-Mar-23 22:07 LONDON (ICIS)–Global acetone supply is tightening. Phenol markets and many of their derivatives across the globe remain depressed. As a result, operating rates are low, curbing the supply of co-product acetone. Covestro braced for weak 2023 as energy, pricing headwinds persist By Tom Brown 02-Mar-23 21:51 LONDON (ICIS)–Covestro expects 2023 earnings to fall below last year’s following a sharp increase in energy and raw material prices since early 2022 and difficulties in passing on those costs to consumers. Europe MIBK stable, but threatened by shifting trade flows By Nick Cleeve 02-Mar-23 19:06 LONDON (ICIS)–Rising prices in Asia caused by the sudden closure of the largest methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) plant in China are attracting volumes to Asia and risking tighter supply in Europe, which has become more import-dependent since Shell – its largest producer – stopped production in 2022. Asia fatty alcohols to see improved sentiment following China Feb PMI data By Helen Yan 02-Mar-23 14:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s fatty alcohols and other oleochemical markets are likely to see an improvement in sentiment and demand, following the latest February data showing factory activity rising significantly in China. INSIGHT: Optimism on China recovery as manufacturing PMI leaps into expansion By Joseph Chang 02-Mar-23 07:00 NEW YORK (ICIS)–The long-awaited China recovery may finally be at hand, as a key leading indicator of manufacturing activity surged higher. Rotterdam coal curve gains reduce German plant profitability in February By David Battista 02-Mar-23 01:05 Increases on the ICE Rotterdam coal price curve amid power price losses caused coal plant margins to plummet in Germany between 21 and 28 February. INSIGHT: Encouraging EU study underscores importance of chemical recycling in waste management By Nigel Davis 01-Mar-23 21:15 LONDON (ICIS)–Plastics producers and recyclers in Europe will be encouraged by a new European Commission study that clearly supports plastics recycling over incineration and underscores the role that chemical recycling will play in waste management in future. PODCAST: Asian, Mideast and Europe TDI markets see tepid demand as weak economic factors weigh on foam consumption By Damini Dabholkar 01-Mar-23 20:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Toluene diisocyanate (TDI) markets in Asia, the Middle East and Europe saw lacklustre demand and mixed supply conditions, with consumption in downstream markets being impacted by inflation and seasonal factors. PODCAST: Pakistan’s financial woes disrupt petrochemical demand By Julia Tan 01-Mar-23 16:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Pakistan’s financial woes have led to disruptions in major end-markets such as the textiles and automotive sectors. Market editor Julia Tan speaks with Deputy News Editor Pearl Bantillo to discuss how the economic crisis has affected petrochemical imports, how the pending International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan will help support regional petrochemical demand, and what players in the wider Asian market can expect. Saudi Arabia’s SABIC expects margins pressure to continue in H1 2023 on slow demand By Nurluqman Suratman 01-Mar-23 16:19 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Arabia’s SABIC expects its margins to continue being under pressure in the first half of this year, after its net profit fell sharply in 2022 amid poorer demand and lower prices. Asia MEC supported by China domestic market, rising cost pressure By Keven Zhang 01-Mar-23 14:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia methylene chloride (MEC) stayed afloat against waning regional demand, supported by a rebounding China domestic market. US benzene supply expected to moderately lengthen through end of Q1, as downstream demand remains weak By Deniz Koray 01-Mar-23 07:30 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US benzene supply is expected to gradually lengthen in late Q1, as market participants expect material from Europe to continue arriving due to soft demand abroad, as well as favourable pricing in the US. US ethylene market seeks balance amid low demand, increasing supply By John Donnelly 01-Mar-23 05:09 HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US ethylene market is seeking an improved supply/demand balance as both production and demand remain down and exports have picked up. More demand is on the horizon with the startup of new polyethylene units. India fiscal Q3 GDP growth slows to 4.4% amid high inflation By Pearl Bantillo 01-Mar-23 14:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India’s economy grew at a slower annualised pace of 4.4% in October-December 2022, weakening for the second consecutive quarter in the current fiscal year ending March 2023, official data showed. China Feb factory activity rises strongly, PMI at nearly 11-year high By Fanny Zhang 01-Mar-23 12:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China factory activity posted a strong uptrend in February, with a manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reading of 52.6, the highest since April 2012, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). CRUDE SUMMARY: Crude prices rally on Chinese economic hopes despite US interest rate headwinds LONDON (ICIS) – The April Brent contract expired on Tuesday and will roll into May on Wednesday. Crude prices rallied in typically thin trading for Brent expiry as continued worries over US interest rate rises failed to offset hopes of Chinese economic recovery. INSIGHT: European chemical producers see demand weakness persist but look to H2 2023 By Nigel Davis 28-Feb-23 23:51 LONDON (ICIS)–A slower than hoped for re-start in China but a turn up in key indicators in the US colour the macroeconomic outlook and the driving forces behind industrial production demand for chemicals. PODCAST: Think Tank – Concerns about energy supply to persist through winter 2023 By Morgan Condon 28-Feb-23 21:59 LONDON (ICIS)–A tough energy market which began with the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war looks set to persist in H1 2023, although preparing for next winter will remain the key challenge for European producers. Asia PX faces uncertainties, weighed down by weak downstream By Samuel Wong 28-Feb-23 16:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Persistently uneconomical production margins for downstream Chinese purified terephthalic acid (PTA) makers will continue to exert downward pressure on Asian paraxylene (PX) prices, despite several upcoming plant maintenance shutdowns. Poor economic conditions in Pakistan, PP trade activity still at a halt By Nadim Salamoun 28-Feb-23 14:22 DUBAI (ICIS)–Despite the bearish market sentiment prevailing in Pakistan over the past few months, several traders and buyers hope that the recent government decision to implement the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s requirements to secure a $1.1bn loan would help alleviate the situation in the near future. INSIGHT: US housing market to hit demographic wall by 2030s By Kevin Swift 28-Feb-23 06:06 CHARLOTTE, North Carolina (ICIS)–Demographics will weigh heavily on the long-term outlook for the US housing sector as a much smaller Gen Z population reaches prime home-buying age in the first half of the 2030s, according to an ICIS analysis. German front month upside potential on bullish weather By Anna Coulson 28-Feb-23 03:51 LONDON (ICIS)–German power March ’23 baseload forward assessments are currently at a discount to the French power equivalent however, traders have told ICIS that they are cautious of colder weather which could result in tightening spreads. German gas plant ambitions signal need for domestic baseload capacity By Daniel Muir 28-Feb-23 01:49 LONDON (ICIS)–Ambitious plans to increase German gas fired power generation (CCGT) capacity will play a key role in providing baseload capacity, however lead times and renewables targets are unlikely to ease production deficits through to the end of the decade. NE Asia C3 slips on weak downstream, SE Asia stable on snug supply By Julia Tan 27-Feb-23 22:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The average price of spot propylene (C3) imports in northeast Asia continued to fall in the week ended 24 February, although the weekly price range widened amid greater market volatility. INSIGHT: China imports of Russia oil to rise further in 2023 on cheap prices By Fanny Zhang 27-Feb-23 21:59 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China is expected to boost imports of Russia oil further in 2023 to take advantage of price discounts, with a significant increase likely in volumes flowing to independent refineries in Shandong. Global weekly spot IPEX slightly up on rise in NE Asia By Will Beacham 27-Feb-23 19:02 LONDON (ICIS)–The global weekly spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) was up by 0.3% week on week, on the back of higher index value in northeast Asia. Asian OX supply to stay tight on upcoming maintenance shutdowns By Samuel Wong 27-Feb-23 15:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Supply for orthoxylene (OX) in Asia is expected to stay tight, with several upcoming scheduled plant maintenance, and as existing facilities will continue to operate at low rates. Thailand’s IVL expects demand recovery after destocking weighed on Q4 results By Nurluqman Suratman 27-Feb-23 13:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Indorama Ventures Ltd expects the unusually high level of customer destocking that weighed on its fourth quarter results to recover in the first half of this year, with China’s reopening to further spur demand, the Thailand-listed producer said on Monday. INSIGHT: Uncertainty grips Asia petrochemical markets a year into Russia-Ukraine war By Nurluqman Suratman and Pearl Bantillo 24-Feb-23 15:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical makers will have to navigate through murky waters with production costs remaining high while exports shrink as the global economy grapples with high interest rates a year into the Russia-Ukraine war. VIDEO: Supply change impact on E China toluene, xylene price gap By Veronica Zhang 24-Feb-23 14:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this video, Industry Analyst Veronica Zhang discusses the fundamental changes in the east China market that are behind the change in the toluene-xylene price gap. Nordlink capacity reduction to add German near-curve upside By Calum Andrews 24-Feb-23 02:15 LONDON (ICIS)–A capacity reduction on the 1.4GW NordLink cable between Germany and Norway could see slightly elevated prices on near-term German power contracts, sources have told ICIS. Europe domestic Group I base oils market braces for change in March By Eashani Chavda 24-Feb-23 00:20 LONDON (ICIS)–European domestic Group I base oils players expect the market downtrend to end in March, due to poor refinery margins and discontented suppliers. INSIGHT: Europe races for energy competitiveness as global ‘Green Wars’ intensify (Part 3) By Aura Sabadus 23-Feb-23 19:16 LONDON (ICIS)–In the first two parts of this series of articles on the global race for energy competitiveness we looked at the short windon of opportunity Europe has to formulate a vision and redirect capital to scale up green investments. Asia naphtha buoyed by supply constraints; spot premiums up By Melanie Wee 23-Feb-23 19:05 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia naphtha markets are drawing support from reduced supply as spot demand revs up, lifting cargo premiums. Malaysia’s PCG Q4 net profit falls 76.7%, expects challenging H1 By Nurluqman Suratman 23-Feb-23 15:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–PETRONAS Chemicals Group (PCG) expects slow demand and higher costs arising from inflation to continue to weigh on its earnings for the first half of this year after its net profit fell by 76.7% year on year in the fourth quarter, the Malaysian producer said on Thursday. PODCAST: Global ACN demand below average but shows signs of life as market finds balance By Lucas Hall 23-Feb-23 02:25 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global acrylonitrile (ACN) demand remains below average, but the market shows signs of life as supply and demand find better balance following heavy destocking activities at the end of 2022 and as restocking activities slowly pick up. Europe races for energy competitiveness as global ‘Green Wars’ intensify (Part 2) By Aura Sabadus 23-Feb-23 00:53 LONDON (ICIS)–In the first part of this series of articles on the global race for energy competitiveness we looked at the short windon of opportunity Europe has to formulate a vision and redirect capital to scale up green investments. INSIGHT: Weak consumer confidence weighs on China recovery post-reopening By Pearl Bantillo 22-Feb-23 23:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s prospects turned brighter after it abandoned its zero-COVID policy, but two of its major growth engines – exports and the property sector – may struggle to perform amid a general weakness in consumer confidence. The possibility of the world plunging into recession still cannot be ruled out. GCC spot bottle-grade PET market likely bullish ahead of Ramadan By Zachary Tia 22-Feb-23 14:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The spot bottle-grade polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region could take on a more bullish outlook as demand strengthens ahead of Ramadan. Asia MEC producers brace for challenging regional demand By Keven Zhang 22-Feb-23 12:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Support for Asia’s methylene chloride (MEC) market appears to be waning after recent recovery, with Chinese producers lowering plant operating rates in response to weak demand. PPG sees destocking nearing an end, amid uneven demand recovery – CEO By Joseph Chang 22-Feb-23 04:48 NEW YORK (ICIS)–US-based coatings producer PPG expects customer destocking in the do-it-yourself (DIY) residential paints sector to soon run its course while other sectors such as automotive refinish and aerospace should continue to provide a tailwind, its CEO said. European caustic soda outlook softens as standoff resolved, spot prices fall By Chris Barker 22-Feb-23 00:01 LONDON (ICIS)–The European caustic soda outlook has softened as spot prices fell in mid-February, with new deals fixed in the Mediterranean and a multi-week standoff resolved, mostly in the buyers’ favour. INSIGHT: Global potash market searches for ‘new normal’ By Andy Hemphill 21-Feb-23 23:06 LONDON (ICIS)–By mid-2023 the global muriate of potash (MOP) fertilizer market will have endured two years of upheaval unlike anything seen for a decade. Malaysia Jan chem exports fall 6.6%, external headwinds to continue hampering trade By Nurluqman Suratman 21-Feb-23 12:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s chemical exports will continue to face external demand headwinds this year after contracting in January, with overall shipments abroad posting the smallest gain since October 2020. Global weekly spot IPEX up slightly on increases in NE Asia, US Gulf By Yashas Mudumbai 20-Feb-23 18:10 LONDON (ICIS)–The global weekly spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) was up by 0.5% week on week, on the back of higher index values in northeast Asia and the US Gulf. Asia glycerine weighed down by sluggish ECH market, slowing global economy By Helen Yan 17-Feb-23 15:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s glycerine market may be weighed down in the near term by the sluggish downstream industrial epichlorohydrin (ECH) sector amid lengthened supply and a slowing global economy. High costs limit spot gas flows from Germany to Poland By Jennifer Sanin 17-Feb-23 15:33 LONDON (ICIS)–Polish gas contract premiums to the German THE have soared since the beginning of 2023 to cover high transport costs, but spot flows from Germany to Poland should still remain scarce. Pakistan fiscal H1 industries contract; seven-month imports slump 23% By Pearl Bantillo 17-Feb-23 14:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Production at Pakistan’s large-scale manufacturing industries in the fiscal first half-year to December 2022 slipped by 3.7% from the previous corresponding period. Thailand’s GDP to grow by 2.7-3.7% in 2023, exports headwinds to persist By Nurluqman Suratman 17-Feb-23 12:59 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s economy is expected to grow by 2.7-3.7% this year following the 2.6% expansion in 2022, led by a recovery in tourism receipts and domestic demand, but exports are projected to decline amid a global slowdown. Singapore January petrochemical exports fall by 27%; NODX slumps 25% By Nurluqman Suratman 17-Feb-23 12:43 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical exports in January fell by 26.6% year on year to Singapore dollar (S$) 1.02bn, weighing on overall non-oil domestic exports (NODX), official data showed on Friday. NE Asia C2 stays on recovery track; support from turnarounds, limited deep-sea supply By Yeow Pei Lin 17-Feb-23 12:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene (C2) import prices rose progressively this week to levels last seen in September 2022, as the limited supply for March outweighed China’s tepid recovery in downstream demand. Asia LAB shows signs of revival after prolonged weakness By Clive Ong 17-Feb-23 11:23 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The linear alkylbenzene (LAB) market in east and south Asia showed signs of a revival this month, following a prolonged weakness that began in the third quarter of last year. AUSTRALIA WRAP: Woodside 2023 turnarounds, Po Valley, Santos projects By Yun Xie 17-Feb-23 07:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Australia’s Woodside Energy revealed an extensive 2023 LNG facility maintenance plan, ASX-listed Po Valley sign a new supply deal with BP gas marketing in Italy, and Santos receive regulatory approval for its Dorado project in Australian LNG news this past week. INSIGHT: China bounce a bust By Joseph Chang 17-Feb-23 04:09 NEW YORK (ICIS)–Hopes for a quick rebound in China’s economy and demand for chemicals and plastics after the Lunar New Year and zero-COVID in the rearview mirror have been dashed thus far. While it is still early days and there are some signs of recovery, disappointment reigns for now. INSIGHT: China’s reopening having a gradual, positive impact on PE demand By Amy Yu 17-Feb-23 00:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Polyethylene (PE) markets in Asia are expected to recover more strongly in 2023 but the magnitude of growth may depend on the speed of demand recovery in China. Currently, demand in February is not stronger than expected. French March ’23 power baseload should deliver at discount to UK on easing risks By Karishma Sadanandan 16-Feb-23 19:27 LONDON (ICIS)–French power spot prices in March are likely to continue delivering below the UK counterpart, with French power supply risks gradually declining. India January exports fall 6.6% on weak global demand; imports down 3.5% By Priya Jestin 16-Feb-23 12:31 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s merchandise exports declined for the second month in a row in January, falling by 6.6% year on year to $32.9bn, due to continued weakness in demand from the US and Europe. China PE traders eye SE Asia markets as Mideast supply tightens By Izham Ahmad 16-Feb-23 11:27 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Polyethylene (PE) traders in China are taking advantage of an apparently tight supply of Middle East cargoes to re-export to buyers in southeast Asia, as China’s post-Lunar New Year demand recovery fails to live up to expectations. Europe coal curve weakens amid bearish energy complex By David Battista 16-Feb-23 01:53 The ICE Rotterdam coal curve inched downwards between 7-14 February, as bearish signals from power and gas markets were countered by carbon price gains. Europe domestic Group I base oils prices stabilise after six-week decline By Eashani Chavda 16-Feb-23 00:46 LONDON (ICIS)–European domestic Group I base oils spot prices stabilise for the first time since 20 December, following growing pressure on refinery margins. Downward pressure subsides for H2 (second half) of February. INSIGHT: Asia petrochemical prices to rise but margins under pressure in February – ICIS analysts By Ann Sun 15-Feb-23 20:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Higher prices in most value chains are expected in the Asia petrochemical market in February in view of balanced-to-tight fundamentals driven by subdued supply and restocking activities. However, companies are still struggling with negative margins. Asia naphtha cushioned by modest demand; weak margins counter By Melanie Wee 15-Feb-23 15:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia naphtha markets are eking out gains from moderate buying, while slim arbitrage prospects from the west are keeping supply in check. Asia MEC stable to firm on restocking, feedstock cost support By Keven Zhang 15-Feb-23 11:35 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s methylene chloride (MEC) prices were stable to firm this week on restocking in China amid low inventories for March and cost support from feedstock chlorine. Rebound in China, Europe to lead TiO2 recovery in ’23 By Al Greenwood 15-Feb-23 03:36 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rebounds in China and Europe should lead the recovery in demand for titanium dioxide (TiO2) in 2023, an executive with US-based Chemours said on Monday. NBP discount could maintain Q1 UK gas exports to Belgium By Hector Falconer 15-Feb-23 01:23 LONDON (ICIS)–Britain is likely to continue exporting gas to Belgium via Fluxy’s Interconnector over the remainder of the first quarter amid a wide NBP Day-ahead and front-month discount to ZEE equivalents. China disappoints hopes of swift PP demand lift, global markets eye exports closely By Vicky Ellis 14-Feb-23 20:47 LONDON (ICIS)–A raft of offers of Chinese polypropylene (PP) into other regions, and signs that demand is not pinging back quickly, are denting hopes that a fast Chinese recovery will pull up global markets. UK power imports through front-quarter weather dependent By Anna Coulson 14-Feb-23 16:47 LONDON (ICIS)–UK power Q2 ’23 contracts have maintained a premium to their European counterparts in February, however there is a mixed outlook on what could affect this spread going forward. Thai PTTGC expects demand recovery in 2023 on China reopening By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Feb-23 14:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thai petrochemical major PTT Global Chemicals expects demand for its aromatics and polymers products to improve this year following China’s reopening. German gas-fired power demand to remain low By Eduardo Escajadillo 14-Feb-23 01:40 LONDON (ICIS)-Gas-fired power in Germany to remain subdued on unfavourable economics, gas demand destruction measures generation is expected to remain stifled in coming months as gas has been ‘out of the money’ for most of 2022 even after the sharp drop in gas prices which began in December last year. Global weekly spot IPEX down on declines across regions By Yashas Mudumbai 13-Feb-23 23:16 LONDON (ICIS)–Spot chemical prices were down by 1.1% week on week on the back of declines across all regions, according to latest figures from the weekly ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX). Spain must up state aid for chemicals, industry as energy crisis to stay – trade group By Jonathan Lopez 13-Feb-23 17:00 MADRID (ICIS)–Spain’s chemicals are resisting the winter crisis better than expected but the government should increase its public support for energy-intensive sectors to match levels in peers within the eurozone, according to the country’s chemicals trade group. Singapore Q4 economy expands by 2.1%, full-year 2022 GDP growth at 3.6% By Nurluqman Suratman 13-Feb-23 11:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s economy grew by 2.1% year on year in the fourth quarter, moderating from the 4.0% expansion in the previous quarter, amid a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, official data showed on Monday. Asia MEG market falls on new supply, slower-than-expected recovery By Judith Wang 10-Feb-23 15:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices have been falling during the week as the upcoming new supply in China and the slower-than-expected demand recovery exerted downward pressure on spot discussions. NE Asia C2 up in supply-led recovery; China downstream demand still slow By Yeow Pei Lin 10-Feb-23 11:43 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene (C2) prices advanced as supply decreased on cracker turnarounds and reduced inflows from other regions. SE Asia: February demand may be less than expected; China will be key By Jackie Wong 10-Feb-23 02:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for polypropylene (PP) in southeast Asia has so far been less stellar than expected earlier and any improvement would likely hinge on how quickly China recovers. Weaker polyolefins margins expected in H1 but outlook remains positive – Borealis CEO By Morgan Condon 10-Feb-23 00:10 LONDON (ICIS)–Borealis is anticipating weaker polyolefins margin developments over the first half of 2023, compared to the same period a year prior, but executives at the petrochemicals arm of Austria’s energy major OMV remain confident in the company’s outlook. INSIGHT: Glimmers of hope in European acetone, phenol and derivatives chain By Jane Gibson 09-Feb-23 22:47 LONDON (ICIS)–There are some small rays of sunshine emerging from the phenol and acetone chain. Lower energy costs are supporting downstream sectors such as methyl methacrylate (MMA)  and polycarbonate (PC) and tightness in acetone is impacting market dynamics. February carbon run pressures long-term German coal profitability By Daniel Muir 09-Feb-23 14:47 LONDON (ICIS)–2023 carbon gains in tandem with far-curve losses on benchmark gas products are pressuring German power plant profitability, according to ICIS Analytics data. INSIGHT: Easing logistics constraints give a boost to US PE exports By Zachary Moore 09-Feb-23 01:20 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Easing logistics constraints have resulted in increased exports of US polyethylene (PE) in recent months, with the outlook suggesting that US PE exports can continue in larger volumes over the next few months. Coal prices decline in February despite rising share of power mix By David Battista 09-Feb-23 00:55 Coal prices across the Rotterdam curve declined during the first week of February, though losses were heavier on the back end. With bearishness going across the commodity mix, German coal plant profitability also took a hit, despite making up an increasing proportion of the country’s power generation mix. French power Q3 ’23 unlikely to flip above UK equivalent as nuke risks fade By Karishma Sadanandan 08-Feb-23 20:42 LONDON (ICIS)–French power prices for delivery in the third quarter of 2023 seem unlikely to flip above the UK counterpart amid recovering nuclear supply in France. India’s RBI hikes policy rate again, raises GDP growth forecast to 7% By Priya Jestin 08-Feb-23 16:10 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate to 6.50% – sixth time it has done in the current fiscal year – and raised its GDP growth projection for the fiscal year ending March 2023 to 7% from 6.8%. China January petrochemical markets rebound; near-term outlook mixed By Yvonne Shi 08-Feb-23 13:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical markets posted strong gains in holiday-shortened January, largely in anticipation of strong demand post Lunar New Year as both production and consumption picked up after the country abandoned its zero-COVID policy. SE Asia SBR, PBR import offers up on costs, demand outlook mixed By Ai Teng Lim 08-Feb-23 13:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Southeast (SE) Asian import offers for styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber (PBR) spiked this week, as producers reeling under cost pressures held firmer targets to contain losses. INSIGHT: Europe biofuels competitiveness at risk on new EU, US climate legislations By Nazif Nazmul 07-Feb-23 22:41 LONDON (ICIS)–The biofuels sector is set for state-led market intervention on both sides of the Atlantic, as per the recently released legislative measures listed in the European Commission’s Green Deal Industrial Plan and the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). INSIGHT: Chemicals ‘the alpha and omega’ of industry, driving need for Transition Pathway legislation By Morgan Condon 07-Feb-23 18:33 LONDON (ICIS)–The chemicals sector was described as “the alpha and the omega” of industry by an EU Commissioner last week who outlined some near-term targets as part of the EU Chemical Industry Transition Pathway. Asia benzene sellers face post-holiday downtrend, lukewarm downstream offtake By Angeline Soh 07-Feb-23 17:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia benzene sellers lamented the unexpected price decline following the Lunar New Year celebrations, as downstream offtake rates were slower than initially anticipated. East Asia, China plasticizers prices at multi-month highs; slow demand seen By Li Peng Seng 07-Feb-23 11:27 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Plasticizers prices in east Asia and China hit multi-month highs recently due mainly to stronger feedstock costs. Europe PE, PP buyers face higher Feb offers after C2, C3 increase; demand still weak By Vicky Ellis 07-Feb-23 04:40 LONDON (ICIS)–European polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) players have received separate higher offers for February contract prices in reaction to the month’s monomer increases. However, underlying demand is still weak and so any settlements are expected to be led by supply and upstream factors. INSIGHT: Petrochemicals beginning to expand again but margins challenged By Nigel Davis 07-Feb-23 00:25 LONDON (ICIS)–Signs of a tentative upturn for the major petrochemicals and polymers are welcome although it is clear that profitability is likely to remain under pressure in the first half. For the big polyolefins, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), additional supply creates a headache that will persist for some time. Global weekly spot IPEX up on gains in NE Asia, NW Europe By Yashas Mudumbai 06-Feb-23 19:23 LONDON (ICIS)–Spot chemical prices were up by 2.1% week on week on the back of rises in northeast Asia and northwest Europe, according to latest figures from the weekly ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX). Asia spot titanium dioxide could see slightly bullish sentiment in February By Joson Ng 06-Feb-23 10:15 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–While there are still uncertainties in demand in China, Asia’s titanium dioxide (TIO2) spot market could now take on a more bullish outlook. Italian gas PSV Q3 could shed risk, power equivalent to stay supported By David Battista 03-Feb-23 14:16 LONDON (ICIS)–Higher gas storage levels and milder temperatures are likely to weigh on the Italian PSV Q3 ’23 gas product’s risk premium ahead of delivery. China to dominate Asian BD talks as supply concerns fuel domestic rally By Ai Teng Lim 03-Feb-23 13:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Discussions for Asia’s butadiene (BD) imports are bullish this week as buying appetite in China spiked alongside a ferocious post-holiday rally in the domestic market. Singapore manufacturing remains under pressure from inflation, external headwinds By Nurluqman Suratman 03-Feb-23 11:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s manufacturing sector will continue to face pressure from weak external demand and high inflation, with data in the first month of 2023 indicating a contraction. Origin Energy: Stronger revenue despite production slip for APLNG By Yun Xie 03-Feb-23 10:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) project will continue to boost revenues on higher gas prices in FY2023, according to the latest quarterly report released by Origin Energy, Australia’s major power and gas supplier, on 31 January. Energy markets to remain dogged by uncertainty, volatility in 2023 – Shell chief By Tom Brown 02-Feb-23 23:36 LONDON (ICIS)–The volatility that has dogged energy markets is likely to persist through this year, with the current tightness of supply/demand balances meaning that small shifts on either side could have a dramatic effect on pricing, the CEO of Shell said on Thursday. European naphtha price spikes ahead of Russian sanctions By Cassandra Abolaji 02-Feb-23 23:05 LONDON (ICIS)–European naphtha open spec prices spiked in January to levels last seen in July 2022, due to upcoming EU sanctions on Russian products and an uptick  in demand. INSIGHT: US Fed sees path to further easing of inflation, sparking optimism By Joseph Chang 02-Feb-23 07:28 NEW YORK (ICIS)–Financial markets are breathing a sigh of relief, even as the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 0.25 percentage points and signalled ongoing increases would be appropriate to bring inflation down to its target of 2%. INSIGHT: EU lays out plans to streamline net zero industry incentives and support By Nigel Davis 02-Feb-23 00:52 LONDON (ICIS)–The European Commission has responded quickly with proposals to streamline the support that might be available across the EU for net zero projects and industries in the face of a shifting international ‘green’ competition. Asia soda ash market firms on limited supply, robust China demand By Helen Lee 02-Feb-23 15:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s soda ash market has firmed on the back of limited export volumes from China, where domestic demand strengthened after the Lunar New Year holidays. US spot propylene prices fall as PDH unit returns, demand stays poor By John Donnelly 01-Feb-23 06:25 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US spot propylene prices have retreated from a sharp mid-January spike as supply concerns relaxed after a downed unit restarted. The first half of the year continues to look challenging as derivative demand is poor, undercut by economic fears. India to allot $4.3bn in fiscal 2023-24 budget to boost clean energy sector By Priya Jestin 01-Feb-23 19:04 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India plans to allocate rupees (Rs) 350bn ($4.3bn) in the fiscal year 2023-24 national budget for energy transition in the pursuit of the country’s net zero carbon emissions objective by 2070. China factory activity needs to grow faster to boost gas demand-traders By Yun Xie 01-Feb-23 14:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s two main manufacturing purchasing managers indices (PMIs) improved in January as the relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions helped ease pressure on manufacturers. South Korea Jan petrochemical exports fall 25%; overall shipments down 17% By Nurluqman Suratman 01-Feb-23 12:51 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s petrochemical exports in January fell by 25% year on year to $3.8bn, with overall shipments also contracting due to a combination of high-base effect and poor global demand. INSIGHT: Europe demand for ethanol, toluene, and MX into gasoline to rise, remain stable for MTBE and ETBE By Zubair Adam 31-Jan-23 22:29 LONDON (ICIS)–Demand in Europe for gasoline blending agents has been somewhat steady recently. Some improvement is expected in the first quarter for bioethanol, toluene and mixed xylenes (MX), while requirements for methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) could remain stable. Better than expected January restocking buoys Europe PA market By Anne-Sophie Briant-Vaghela 31-Jan-23 21:46 LONDON (ICIS)–Demand for phthalic anhydride (PA) is above expectations for some players even though it is below a normal year, and some who say it is  30% below demand in January last year. India fiscal 2023-24 economic growth to fall below 7% on weak global cues By Priya Jestin 31-Jan-23 19:11 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s economy is projected to post a weaker growth for the next fiscal year ending March 2024 from the 7% estimate for the current year as the global slowdown is expected to continue hurting exports. Asian OX supply balanced to slightly tight, downstream poses headwind By Samuel Wong 31-Jan-23 17:08 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian orthoxylene (OX) supply is likely to stay balanced to slightly tight, amid low plant operating rates. NE Asia polyester post-holiday prices stable; players await clearer outlook By Judith Wang 31-Jan-23 13:58 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Spot polyester prices in northeast Asia were stable after the Lunar New Year holiday as most market players have adopted a wait-and-see stance to wait for a clear market outlook to emerge. China 2023 GDP growth forecast revised up to 5.2% as activity recovers – IMF By Nurluqman Suratman 31-Jan-23 11:58 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s GDP growth is projected to rebound to 5.2% in 2023 from 3.0% last year as a sudden lifting of most its pandemic-related restrictions paved the way for a rapid rebound in economic activity, according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released on Tuesday. Developing Asia economic growth forecast raised to 5.3% – IMF By Nurluqman Suratman 31-Jan-23 11:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Economic growth in emerging and developing Asian economies is expected to rise in 2023 and 2024 to 5.3% and 5.2%, respectively, after the deeper-than-expected slowdown in 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. German government to hasten renewables development By Daniel Muir 31-Jan-23 02:46 LONDON (ICIS)–Germany’s ambitious renewable power production goals of 80% of total power consumption by 2030 were boosted on Monday with the federal government’s adoption of a draft formulation aid for the implementation of the EU Emergency Regulation. Europe base oils export supply uncertain for Q1 amid severe drop in margins By Samantha Wright 31-Jan-23 01:22 LONDON (ICIS)–A sharp drop in European base oils export margins has raised some concerns for export availability for the rest of the first quarter. INSIGHT: Speed of change underscored in EU chemical industry transition pathway By Nigel Davis 31-Jan-23 00:31 LONDON (ICIS)–The European Commission’s long-awaited Transition Pathway for the Chemical Industry has been broadly welcomed by the sector in that it reflects the scale of current and future challenges for companies and institutions. Spanish chemical industry in good health, EU funds helped to alleviate crisis – trade union By Jonathan Lopez 30-Jan-23 20:04 MADRID (ICIS)–The Spanish chemical industry has resisted the onslaught caused by the energy crisis in Europe, with producers benefiting from the ‘Iberian exception’ which has lowered their input costs, according to an industry executive at the country’s main trade union CCOO. Global weekly spot IPEX up on chemical price rises across all regions By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 30-Jan-23 18:41 LONDON (ICIS)–Spot chemical prices were up by 1.2% week on week on the back of rises across all regions, according to latest figures from the weekly ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX). China petrochemical futures, spot markets mixed post-Lunar New Year By Yvonne Shi 30-Jan-23 14:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Post-holiday price trends in China’s petrochemical futures and spot markets diverge as sentiment remained cautious despite recent optimism over recovering demand in the world’s second-biggest economy with the lifting of its zero-COVID policy. China PP market rises post-holiday amid bullish sentiment By Lucy Shuai 30-Jan-23 11:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s polypropylene (PP) prices rose after the Lunar New Year holidays on bullish sentiment after China abandoned its zero-COVID policy. INSIGHT: Pakistan rupee plunges to record low amid economic crisis, US dollar shortage By Pearl Bantillo 27-Jan-23 15:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Pakistan’s currency – the rupee – plunged to a fresh record low on Friday as its economic problems pile up amid a severe lack of US dollars to pay for imports, underscoring an immediate need for bailout funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). US’ Eastman plans 3% cut in global workforce, closure of Europe acetate yarn site By Pearl Bantillo 27-Jan-23 12:10 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US specialty chemicals producer Eastman is looking at trimming its global workforce of more than 14,000 personnel “by about 3%” as part of its $200m cost-cutting programme, a company spokesperson told ICIS. US GDP grew at 2.9% annual rate in Q4, led by inventories By Stefan Baumgarten 26-Jan-23 23:30 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US GDP grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in a first estimate of Q4 GDP growth on Thursday. US Q1 TiO2 contract negotiations continue as demand for key end-use markets softens By Deniz Koray 27-Jan-23 05:31 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US titanium dioxide (TiO2) contract discussions are ongoing in Q1. TiO2 prices have seen less volatility than many petrochemicals in the past half-year or so. However, demand has slowed from 2021 and early 2022 levels. Polish PGE Baltica eyes 1.1GW offshore wind project By Simona Uhrinova 27-Jan-23 02:06 LONDON (ICIS)– PGE Baltica could get closer to its 6.5GW offshore wind target in the Baltic Sea by 2040 after its subsidiary Elektrownia Wiatrowa Baltica 1 was awarded on 25 January most points in the offshore wind farms location permit procedure announced by the Polish ministry of infrastructures. Europe Melamine January contracts decrease; gas prices lower but operating rates remain reduced By Melissa Hurley 27-Jan-23 01:09 LONDON (ICIS)–The European January melamine contract prices have decreased on a delta basis compared with December, depending on the starting point and the account. PODCAST: Bulgarian energy developments in doubt as country gears for new elections By Aura Sabadus 27-Jan-23 00:50 LONDON (ICIS)— In 2022, when Gazprom stopped supplies to Bulgaria, the country switched at short notice from nearly full dependence on Russian gas to complete diversification. It commissioned a new interconnector with Greece, tapped LNG imports and ramped up off-takes of Caspian gas. More recently it signed a deal for access to Turkey’s infrastructure, which could open up a new supply route to southeast Europe. INSIGHT: Upcoming US chem earnings to reflect lower margins By Al Greenwood 26-Jan-23 22:53 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-based chemical companies have flagged several reasons why their Q4 earnings have been depressed – from weak end markets to inventory normalisation to a decline in margins. INSIGHT: Dow’s targeted cuts in Europe highlight region’s loss of competitive edge By Will Beacham 26-Jan-23 21:20 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Dow’s decision to target Europe for plant closures as it targets $1bn in cost savings this year highlights the structural cost disadvantage the region’s petrochemical sector suffers. South Korea Q4 GDP growth slows to 1.4% on year, contracts 0.4% on quarter By Pearl Bantillo 26-Jan-23 14:09 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s economy posted a slower annualized fourth-quarter 2022 growth of 1.4%, bringing its full-year pace of expansion to 2.6%, based on the government’s advance estimates released on Thursday. Philippines Q4 GDP expands 7.2%; full-year ’22 growth at 7.6% By Pearl Bantillo 26-Jan-23 13:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Philippine economy expanded at an annualized rate of 7.2% in the fourth quarter of last year, allowing it to log one of the fastest 2022 GDP growths in Asia, beating expectations. Asia naphtha market sentiment mixed; eyes on China’s recovery By Melanie Wee 26-Jan-23 12:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia naphtha markets are being kept afloat by hopes of recovering China petrochemical demand, although diminishing downstream margins are keeping demand cautious. Asia MTBE balance might shift China potential outflow By Keven Zhang 26-Jan-23 11:47 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) market is expected to stay amply supplied with a potential opening of China export arbitrage. France likely to remain at a discount to the UK in February By Karishma Sadanandan 26-Jan-23 01:32 LONDON (ICIS)–France is likely to remain at a discount to the UK during February delivery as nuclear availability is expected to improve while temperatures are forecast to be bearish. New strikes unlikely to hamper French power supply By Andrea Battaglia 26-Jan-23 00:47 LONDON (ICIS)–French power supply could be put to the test again on 31 January as another 24-hour national strike action has been confirmed in opposition to the French government’s pension reform project. February profitability plummets amid good fundamentals picture By David Battista 26-Jan-23 00:37 Wider supply margins in Europe, fuelled by mild temperatures and rising wind power outputs, continue to support Asian market premiums. Bullish outlook prompts trade for West African barrels By Cecilia Barreiro 25-Jan-23 22:59 LONDON (ICIS)–Nigerian and Angolan crude prices are expected to garner support in March amid robust refining margins and a favourable arbitrage window. Uncertainty, weak demand persist in Europe’s oxo-alcohols chain By Nicole Simpson 25-Jan-23 20:45 LONDON (ICIS)–The European oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets continue to be defined by weak demand and uncertainty among buyers. Asia petrochemicals pin hopes on China’s post-holiday demand By Pearl Bantillo 25-Jan-23 14:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical players are largely betting on strong revival of China’s demand following lifting of most COVID-19 curbs, having built up stocks in the weeks leading to the Lunar New Year holiday. Argentina launches first LNG winter tender for 30 cargoes By Ruth Liao 25-Jan-23 12:48 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Argentina’s gas distributor IEASA, also known as Gas Energia, launched its winter buying tender for LNG cargoes, seeking 30 cargoes between March and August 2023 for its Escobar terminal. INSIGHT: Elevated Europe energy prices challenge business cases for some green projects By Tom Brown 24-Jan-23 23:31 LONDON (ICIS)–Higher energy prices in Europe are providing a challenge to the business cases of some green and decarbonisation projects compared to the competitiveness of similar investments elsewhere in the world. PODCAST: Europe MMA stirs as low gas prices reawaken petrochemicals By Will Beacham 24-Jan-23 21:27 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Europe methyl methacrylate (MMA) production is on the cusp of restarting as lower gas prices breathe life back into region’s petrochemical sector. Upcoming shutdowns in GCC to affect PP/PE price stability in Middle East By Nadim Salamoun 24-Jan-23 18:57 DUBAI (ICIS)–A series of shutdowns from GCC producers, some of which are already taking place in January, with others expected to take place between February and March, will likely curtail polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) supply to the region in the near future. Forex shortages damage buying ability of Africa PE/PP players By Ben Lake 23-Jan-23 23:01 LONDON (ICIS)–African polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) prices have shown some sign of life in recent weeks, as some exporters begin to increase their prices. Global weekly spot IPEX up on stronger northeast Asia and US Gulf By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 23-Jan-23 21:03 LONDON (ICIS)–Global spot chemical prices rose by 2.7% in the week to January 20 on the back of firmer prices in northeast Asia and US Gulf, according to latest figures from the weekly ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX). INSIGHT: China polyester industry rebound expected after holiday By Jimmy Zhang 23-Jan-23 20:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Since China has lifted COVID-19 restriction policies, most market participants expect a demand recovery after the Lunar New Year holiday. VIDEO: China chemicals market review and outlook By Chris Qi 20-Jan-23 11:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Watch ICIS China information director Chris Qi review China chemical industry in 2022 and an outlook for the industry in 2023. China ethylene buyers’ price ideas edge up ahead of holiday By Yeow Pei Lin 20-Jan-23 11:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene prices rebounded slightly in recent days, aided by limited offers, improving prices for certain derivatives in China and strong feedstock naphtha costs. European engineering plastics demand stays sluggish in light of persistent economic uncertainty By Yashas Mudumbai 20-Jan-23 00:34 LONDON (ICIS)–The engineering plastics markets for polyacetal (POM) and polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) in Europe are continuing to see lower than usual demand, as macroeconomic challenges cause market players to be circumspect. INSIGHT: Chems face rough earnings season amid warnings, lower margins By Al Greenwood 20-Jan-23 00:04 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Chemical companies have kicked off the earnings season by waring that they could miss analysts’ estimates and struggle to keep up with rising costs. OUTLOOK FOR 2023: Nordic power crucial to Baltic supply security By Calum Andrews 19-Jan-23 19:43 LONDON (ICIS)–Power imports from the Nordics are likely to continue playing a key role in ensuring security of supply across the Baltics through 2023, following halts to Russian power supplies in May 2022. Malaysia central bank maintains 2.75% key interest rate amid economic headwinds By Nurluqman Suratman 19-Jan-23 18:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s central bank on Thursday unexpectedly kept its key benchmark interest rate unchanged amid expectations that the country’s 2023 economic growth will moderate this year amid a global slowdown. Pakistani buyers struggle to pay Asian R-PET, R-PE cargoes By Arianne Perez 19-Jan-23 18:10 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–As Pakistan struggles with a financial crisis, importers of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) and recycled polyethylene (R-PE) have struggled to settle payments with suppliers. China MDI markets see active restocking spurred on by planned turnarounds By Shannen Ng 19-Jan-23 12:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–News of two major methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) producers in China planning turnarounds for February spurred restocking activity in the week ending 18 January, ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Oil falls by more than $1/bbl on surprise build in US crude inventories By Nurluqman Suratman 19-Jan-23 12:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell by more than $1/bbl on Thursday after industry data showed a surprise build in US crude inventories for the second straight week, raising concerns of faltering fuel demand. Asia BDO rebounds as buyers pin hopes on renewed post-holiday demand By Clive Ong 19-Jan-23 11:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market surged this week as buying momentum for February cargoes picked up on expectations of firmer demand post-Lunar New Year. US economy poised to enter mild recession as inflation has peaked – ICIS economist By Joseph Chang 19-Jan-23 05:30 NEW YORK (ICIS)–The US economy is likely to enter a relatively mild recession in 2023, the ICIS chief economist said on Wednesday. Germany-France power Q4 ‘23 spread to tighten on rising nuclear availability By Daniel Muir 19-Jan-23 01:26 LONDON (ICIS)–The German baseload Q4 ‘23 product discount against the equivalent French product should tighten through 2023 on improving fundamentals, market participants have told ICIS. Asian coal premium to Europe shows signs of tightening By David Battista 19-Jan-23 01:26 Rotterdam coal prices moved sideways between 10 and 17 January, resisting the downwards pressure that weighed down most commodity prices, and tightening the Asia premium over Europe. INSIGHT: Poor demand, high costs stifle Europe industry despite falling gas prices By Aura Sabadus 18-Jan-23 22:56 LONDON (ICIS)–Falling gas prices could reignite some interest in European industrial output but a combination of high operating costs and sluggish demand, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, is likely to slow recovery this year, according to ICIS research. European phenol struggles with costs while acetone tightens, but demand remains slow By Jane Gibson 18-Jan-23 22:07 LONDON (ICIS)–The recent fall in gas prices is good news for the phenol and acetone chain. But this alone is unlikely to prompt producers to increase operating rates quite yet. Japan’s Toyota targets record ’23 car output of 10.6m units, with caveat By Pearl Bantillo 18-Jan-23 13:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Global automotive giant Toyota is targeting to produce 10.6m units in 2023, subject to a possible downward adjustment of 10% if problems with supply of semiconductors persist. Bank of Japan maintains low interest rates despite rising inflation By Nurluqman Suratman 18-Jan-23 12:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Wednesday maintained its ultra-low interest rate policy despite rising inflation levels and warned that risks to the country’s economic outlook remain extremely high. Asia MEC underpinned by hopes of post-Lunar New Year recovery By Keven Zhang 18-Jan-23 11:32 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia methylene chloride (MEC) was buoyed by spot demand in the last week before the Lunar New Year. Europe ECH demand muted in Q1, could improve in Q2 By Heidi Finch 18-Jan-23 00:21 LONDON (ICIS)–Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) demand is likely to face a tough first quarter, as macroeconomic headwinds and Asian competition continue to weigh. OUTLOOK ’23: Chemical M&A stymied by rates, uncertainty but may rebound in H2 By Joseph Chang 18-Jan-23 00:00 NEW YORK (ICIS)–High interest rates, lack of available financing and economic and earnings uncertainty are holding back chemical industry mergers and acquisitions (M&A). However, activity may be poised to rebound in H2 2023 as the backlog of undone deals builds up, a clearer earnings picture emerges and especially if the financing market improves. INSIGHT: Asia petrochemicals to rebound in January amid demand recovery – ICIS analysts By Jenny Yi 17-Jan-23 21:45 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asia petrochemical market is expected to rebound from January in view of demand recovery in the coming months with China’s abandonment of its strict zero-COVID policy. The appreciation of Asia currencies against the US dollar should also support the outlook. PODCAST: Europe PE, PP analytical 2023 outlook By Ben Lake 17-Jan-23 19:35 LONDON (ICIS)–European polymer editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake are joined by analysts Emiliano Basualto and Lorenzo Meazza to discuss the year ahead in what could be a transitional 12 months for the polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets. NE Asia polyester prices stable to firm; post-holiday outlook optimistic By Judith Wang 17-Jan-23 16:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Spot polyester prices in northeast Asia were stable to firm during the week, on the back of stronger feedstock prices, while overall buying has slowed ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. China 2022 GDP growth slows to 3%; re-opening to drive 2023 recovery By Nurluqman Suratman 17-Jan-23 16:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economy grew by 3% in 2022, marking its slowest pace of expansion in decades, highlighting the impact of the country’s long-standing zero-COVID strategy. India December exports fall 12.2% amid global economic slowdown By Priya Jestin 17-Jan-23 14:21 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s merchandise exports in December declined by 12.2% year on year to $34.5bn, with further weakness likely in 2023 amid the global economic slowdown, with its major markets – the US and Europe – possibly facing a recession. BPA prices in China, India at more than two-year low; ample supply may linger By Li Peng Seng 17-Jan-23 11:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Import prices of bisphenol A (BPA) in China and India have slumped to their lowest levels in more than two years, weighed down by ample supply. INSIGHT: Weak, sometimes negative product margins challenged petchem players in 2022 By Nigel Davis 16-Jan-23 23:54 LONDON (ICIS)–As in the depths of the COVID-19 downturn, chemical producers, particularly those based largely in northwest Europe, remain focused on cash. Global weekly spot IPEX up on rising chemical prices across all regions By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 16-Jan-23 18:57 LONDON (ICIS)–Spot chemical prices were up 2.2% on the back of firmer values across all regions, according to latest figures from the weekly ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX). Qatar’s $6bn Ras Laffan project to boost Mideast PE exports, shift trade flows By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Jan-23 13:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Qatar’s $6bn joint venture Ras Laffan petrochemicals complex is expected to boost the Middle East’s polyethylene (PE) exports and could result in a major shift to global trade flows once it comes on stream, according to ICIS analysts. China re-opening bodes well for SE Asia PE, but Lunar New Year slowdowns ahead By Izham Ahmad 16-Jan-23 11:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s surprise announcement of the re-opening of its borders and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions has injected renewed vigour into the southeast Asian PE market, but the impact could be short-lived as market activity slows down for the typical Lunar New Year holiday lull. NE Asia C2 at multi-year lows on surge in Mideast, Malaysia exports By Yeow Pei Lin 13-Jan-23 13:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene (C2) prices fell for a second consecutive week due to a supply glut following unexpectedly large exports from the Middle East and Malaysia. S Korea central bank hikes key interest rate; ’23 GDP growth likely below 1.7% By Nurluqman Suratman 13-Jan-23 13:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s central bank on Friday raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% to tame high inflation, with economic growth this year now forecast to be lower than 1.7%. Fourth Ratcliffe-on-Soar unit extended to September 2024 By Anna Coulson 13-Jan-23 01:40 LONDON (ICIS)–Uniper UK confirmed that the fourth 500MW coal unit at the Ratcliffe-on-Soar power plant, originally due to close 31 March 2023, will be extended until the end of September 2024 as requested by the UK Government. INSIGHT: As plastics supply balloons, demand growth is increasingly challenged By Nigel Davis 13-Jan-23 00:58 LONDON (ICIS)–Polyolefins supply is ballooning just as expectations of recession mount and longer-term prospects for demand growth look increasingly uncertain. Global operating rates are under intense pressure. Africa PE/PP volumes reduced after buyers fall into arrears By Ben Lake 12-Jan-23 21:48 LONDON (ICIS)–Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) traders and producers are restricting offers into Africa because many customers owe them payment for previous months’ volumes. PODCAST: China’s MTBE export market to remain active in 2023 amid oversupply By Aviva Zhang 12-Jan-23 16:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this podcast, ICIS analysts Candy Nie and Aviva Zhang review developments in the methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) market in 2022 and discuss its outlook for 2023. OUTLOOK FOR 2023: Less nuke risk could curb French power prices By Karishma Sadanandan 12-Jan-23 13:56 LONDON (ICIS)–In the case that French nuclear availability improves from what was witnessed in 2022, an year of historically low nuclear power capacity and generation, France could see power prices fall in comparison to last year. China petrochemical players build stocks on hopes of strong post-holiday demand By Fanny Zhang 12-Jan-23 11:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Players in China’s petrochemical markets are actively building up stocks on expectation of a strong recovery in post-Lunar New Year demand. Nuclear push unlikely to prevent Swedish power deficit By Calum Andrews 12-Jan-23 01:46 LONDON (ICIS)–Government plans for new nuclear expansion will be “unlikely to prevent a Swedish power deficit” according to ICIS Analyst Nikhil Anand, adding that “nuclear is a very time-consuming technology to bring to market”. Italy’s €210/MWh industrial cap risks lifting energy costs By Daniel Muir 12-Jan-23 01:03 LONDON (ICIS)–Italy’s Gestore dei Mercati Energetici (GME), the operator of the Italian energy exchange, announced on Wednesday the assignment of 16TWh/year to industrial power users at a price of €210/MWh. Europe epoxy prices dip on cheap imports, gas relief; demand outlook fragile By Heidi Finch 12-Jan-23 00:51 LONDON (ICIS)–Europe epoxy resins are under continued pressure into January, amid strong Asian competition and some relief in energy costs. INSIGHT: A turbulent 2020s requires near-term focus but clear, longer-term strategies By Nigel Davis 12-Jan-23 00:49 LONDON (ICIS)–The World Economic Forum (WEF) talks of a global risks landscape this year that “feels both wholly new and eerily familiar” in its Global Risks Report 2023. East Asia, Pacific 2023 growth seen at 4.3% on China rebound – World Bank By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Jan-23 15:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Economies in the east Asia and Pacific region in 2023 are expected to log an average growth of 4.3%, accelerating from the estimated 3.2% pace in 2022 but lower than the previous forecast of above 5% for the current year, the World Bank said. Global 2023 economic growth cut to 1.7% from 3.0% – World Bank By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Jan-23 13:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The World Bank cut its 2023 global GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from a previous projection of 3%, marking a sharp slowdown from the estimated 2.9% growth for 2022. Asia MIBK soars on plant closure; rising COVID-19 cases in China cap gains By Angeline Soh 11-Jan-23 13:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) prices have soared following a surprise end-December shutdown of LCY Chem’s plant in Zhenjiang, China. INSIGHT: Downward pressure on petchem and plastics prices persists globally By Nigel Davis 11-Jan-23 01:19 LONDON (ICIS)–Falling base chemical and polymer prices globally reflect the weaker and uncertain demand environment while shifted supply and demand balances have coloured spot activity at the end of 2022 and the start of 2023 for a handful of chemical commodities. Tighter German-French front-quarter spread to curb exports By Daniel Muir 11-Jan-23 00:49 LONDON (ICIS)–Tightening front-quarter spreads between German and French baseload power products are likely to result in greater oscillation of power flows between the two countries moving through 2023. Global weekly spot IPEX up on firmer prices in northeast Asia, northwest Europe By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 11-Jan-23 00:44 LONDON (ICIS)–Spot chemical prices were up by 1.2% in the week ended 6 January, driven by increases in northeast Asia and northwest Europe values, according to latest figures from the weekly ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX). High interest rates, earnings uncertainty holding back chemicals M&A – banker By Joseph Chang 11-Jan-23 00:27 NEW YORK (ICIS)–High interest rates, lack of available financing and economic uncertainty are holding back chemical industry mergers and acquisitions (M&A). However, activity is poised to rebound after this challenging period as the backlog of deals builds up, an investment banker said. PODCAST: Lower gas prices not yet stimulating Europe chemicals, fertilizers By Will Beacham 10-Jan-23 21:54 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Falling gas prices have not yet revived Europe’s ailing fertilizer and petrochemical sectors as producers fret over recession and future gas market dynamics. Asia C3 may see more spot talks on lower 2023 term volumes By Julia Tan 10-Jan-23 15:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–2023 may see increased liquidity in the Asia propylene spot market as some market participants mull lower term volumes on the back of new capacities in Asia. China phenol oversupply to ease on likely output cuts, more exports to India By Helen Lee 10-Jan-23 14:23 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s phenol oversupply may ease as producers were expected to cut output due to mounting margin pressure, and amid possibility of more exports given an open arbitrage window to India. Spot LNG markets start with a twist in 2023 By Yun Xie 06-Jan-23 15:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ICIS northwest Europe (NEX) spot LNG levels moved back to a discount to East Asian (EAX) spot LNG this week for the first time since mid-December. OUTLOOK ’23: China’s methanol short term demand to remain tepid, long-term outlook better By Sam Liang 06-Jan-23 13:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s methanol traditional demand in the first quarter of 2023 appears to be weak – a trend continuing from the second half of 2022 – though later in the year some recovery is expected as domestic economy is expected to improve. OUTLOOK ’23: China ACN, downstream capacities to expand; oversupply challenges prevail By Candy Nie 06-Jan-23 12:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s acrylonitrile (ACN) market will continue to see a slew of capacity expansions, particularly in the first half of 2023. NE Asia ethylene falls on weak China demand, ample supply By Yeow Pei Lin 06-Jan-23 10:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene market started 2023 on a soft note due to China’s raging COVID-19 outbreak, which has exacerbated the seasonal downstream demand lull ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. OUTLOOK ’23: China MEG supply increase may outpace demand growth By Cindy Qiu 06-Jan-23 09:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) market may continue running into headwinds in 2023 after a downturn in 2022, as increasing supply given multiple new plants’ start-up plans may outweigh demand growth. US paint shares fall after RPM warns of lower earnings By Al Greenwood 06-Jan-23 04:41 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Shares of RPM International fell by more than 13% midday on Thursday, dragging down the stock prices of other companies that make paints, coatings and adhesives, after the company warned that earnings for its upcoming quarter may decline year on year. OUTLOOK ’23: US ethylene exports expected to surge as region maintains competitive edge By John Donnelly 06-Jan-23 00:24 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Despite economic headwinds limiting domestic derivative demand, US ethylene producers are set to take advantage of expanded export capacity and competitive economics through the year. INSIGHT – OUTLOOK ’23: Slowdowns loom for Brazil, Mexico By Al Greenwood 06-Jan-23 00:10 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Economists in Brazil and Mexico expect GDP growth will slow down sharply in 2023, with Brazil losing the benefits of a commodity rally and Mexico suffering from slower growth in the US. OUTLOOK ’23: US chemical equities look to rebound from 2022 backsliding By JT Strasner 06-Jan-23 00:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Chemical equities over the past year reversed gains experienced in 2021, and will end 2022 sharply lower year on year. INSIGHT: ‘Tsunami’ of legislation will harm European competitiveness By Morgan Condon 05-Jan-23 22:30 LONDON (ICIS)–European chemical producers are entering the new year facing a “tsunami” of new regulations, according to the head of the European Association of Chemicals Distributors (FECC) Dorothee Arns. OUTLOOK ’23: Europe MA market could still grow in 2023 after hard winter By Anne-Sophie Briant-Vaghela 05-Jan-23 19:00 LONDON (ICIS)–European maleic anhydride (MA) players are grinding their teeth and hoping for at best a gradual recovery from the weakest activity in three years. China Dec petrochemical markets weak; better post-Lunar New Year demand eyed By Yvonne Shi 05-Jan-23 14:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical markets stayed depressed in December despite substantial relaxation of pandemic-related lockdowns, as a consequent spike in COVID-19 infections continued to restrict logistics operations. OUTLOOK ’23: China’s acetic acid supply-demand fundamentals see expansions in industry chain By Jady Ma 05-Jan-23 12:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s acetic acid and downstream industries will continue to see new capacity coming on line in 2023, but the mismatch between their start-up dates and turnaround schedules of existing plants may lead to a temporary imbalance in the market. OUTLOOK ‘23: Asia ethanol faces uncertain future on unclear economics, tight supply By Izham Ahmad 05-Jan-23 11:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The spot import market for fuel ethanol and b-grade ethanol in Asia faces an uncertain outlook for the new year, based on the cloudy economic outlook and expectations of tighter supply from some of the main suppliers in Brazil. OUTLOOK: Higher PVC prices expected in Latin America in H1 2023 By Daniel Lopes 05-Jan-23 05:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin America are placed to follow Asia market trends in Q1 2023, as Formosa Taiwan raised its prices to all destinations last week and sold out on the same day. OUTLOOK ’23: Plant activity will tighten US propylene balance even as economy undermines demand By John Donnelly 05-Jan-23 03:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Derivative demand for US propylene will remain weak until at least Q3, but plant maintenance and a new propylene oxide/tertiary butyl alcohol (POTBA) plant will help support the market in the first half of the year. OUTLOOK ’23: US PA, OX demand expected to remain weak on economic headwinds By Melissa Wheeler 05-Jan-23 02:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Demand for phthalic anhydride (PA) is expected to remain weak through the beginning of 2023 as the market continues to destock inventories. France pushes for support from energy suppliers By Karishma Sadanandan 05-Jan-23 01:26 LONDON (ICIS)– The French government announced on 4 January that energy suppliers will commit to supporting businesses and communities minimising the impact of high energy costs through various measures. German Year 2024 clean dark spreads hit 15-week low By Anna Coulson 05-Jan-23 01:09 LONDON (ICIS)–Rolling front year profit margins for German coal-fired power plants were assessed at €79.44/MWh on 3 January, their lowest value since 19 September, despite rising week-on-week fuel costs. ICIS TTF February ‘23 gas contract keeps sliding amid bearish fundamentals By Marta Del Buono 05-Jan-23 00:28 LONDON (ICIS)–A combination of ongoing bearish fundamentals is likely to keep the ICIS TTF February ‘23 contract below March ‘23 ahead of expiry. OUTLOOK ’23: US MTBE export demand to remain healthy as gasoline demand recovers By Reilly Radke 05-Jan-23 00:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) exports are expected remain healthy in 2023 as the tightness in octane boosters supply continues and global gasoline demand recovers. OUTLOOK ’23: Economic woes to weigh on Turkish PE/PP demand By Samantha Wright 04-Jan-23 21:30 LONDON (ICIS)–Economic issues will continue to plague the Turkish polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets and determine the outlook for these products in the first quarter of 2023. OUTLOOK ’23: Jet kerosene demand to increase on relaxed COVID-19 restrictions By Cassandra Abolaji 04-Jan-23 20:00 LONDON (ICIS)–The outlook for the European jet kerosene market is optimistic for 2023, as the world reaches almost full recovery from COVID-19 travel restrictions. Singapore manufacturing weakness to persist on poor external demand By Nurluqman Suratman 04-Jan-23 16:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s manufacturing sector faces further downside in the near term due to faltering outlook for electronics and weaker external demand. OUTLOOK ‘23: New capacity, China’s COVID-19 surge weigh on Asia EVA market By Helen Lee 04-Jan-23 15:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s supply of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) is expected to lengthen as new capacities start-up, while surging COVID-19 cases in China following easing of pandemic-related restrictions could cap demand recovery in the first quarter of 2023. OUTLOOK ’23: Asia methanol ready for new demand centres; capacity expansion limited By Keven Zhang 04-Jan-23 12:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–High price volatility dominated the Asian methanol market in the first-half of 2022, but weak macroeconomic performance in China and India led to a drying up of liquidity and stagnant prices in the second-half. OUTLOOK ’23: China plasticizers demand recovery seen remote By Li Peng Seng 04-Jan-23 11:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian plasticizers plants’ average utilization rates for most of first-half 2023 could stay low as poor demand in key market China is expected to linger. UK to bolster domestic nuclear fuel production, aiding nuclear power By Karishma Sadanandan 04-Jan-23 02:17 LONDON (ICIS)–The UK Energy and Climate Minister Graham Stuart announced on 2 January a new £75m fund for the development and commercialisation of domestic nuclear fuel production. OUTLOOK ‘23: US R-PE to see diverging trends on sustainability vs cost-sensitive resin demand By Emily Friedman 04-Jan-23 01:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) market will continue to show diverging market trends in 2023, depending on the recycled resin grade. Sustainability-driven demand for material such as post-consumer, natural coloured recycled high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) or recycled low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE) will continue to be robust as companies make progress against regulatory and voluntary post-consumer recycled (PCR) content targets. European caustic soda prices fall in December, Q1 outlook bearish By Chris Barker 03-Jan-23 23:19 LONDON (ICIS)–European caustic soda prices have trended down strongly in December, driven by weak demand which has outweighed lower production and capacity utilisation. OUTLOOK ’23: Europe capro, nylon demand could stay low as consumer confidence slumps By Marta Fern 03-Jan-23 23:00 LONDON (ICIS)–European demand for caprolactam (capro) and nylon 6 could stay low in 2023, with automotive offtake expected to fluctuate across the year but remain subdued overall. Global weekly spot IPEX up on stronger prices in northeast Asia, US Gulf By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 03-Jan-23 22:31 LONDON (ICIS)–Spot chemical prices were up by 0.7% in the week ended 23 December, driven by increases in northeast Asia and the US Gulf values, according to latest figures from the weekly ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX). OUTLOOK ’23: China’s MTBE export market to remain active as oversupply persists By Aviva Zhang 03-Jan-23 22:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In 2023, with persistent high supply of MTBE in China, the export market is expected to remain active. OUTLOOK ’23: European EO market worries over energy costs continue By Melissa Hurley 03-Jan-23 18:30 LONDON (ICIS)–Production cost uncertainty remains key for European ethylene oxide (EO) market players in 2023. OUTLOOK ’23: Europe epoxy demand stifled by macro woes, Asian competition By Heidi Finch 03-Jan-23 18:30 LONDON (ICIS)–The Europe epoxy resins demand outlook is cautious and muted for 2023, weighed down by ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and Asian competition China Dec PMI at 34-month low; recovery expected to come in Feb By Fanny Zhang 03-Jan-23 15:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slumped to a 34-month low of 47.0 in December amid fast-spreading COVID-19 outbreaks. Caixin’s Dec China manufacturing PMI falls to 49.0 on rising COVID-19 cases By Nurluqman Suratman 03-Jan-23 13:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Caixin’s China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in December from 49.4 in November as a rise in domestic COVID-19 cases continue to weigh on domestic output, the Chinese media firm said on Tuesday. OUTLOOK ’23: Asian PTA supply ample, amid continual expansion plans By Samuel Wong 03-Jan-23 11:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Continual expansion of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) facilities in Asia in 2023 will keep supply more than sufficient, with demand growth expected to lag. OUTLOOK ’23: Asia PX pins hopes on gasoline amid bearish PTA outlook By Samuel Wong 03-Jan-23 10:58 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian paraxylene (PX) markets will ride on the hopes of a strong gasoline market, with arbitrage opportunities to the West to continue, and on the back of capacity expansions in both the PX and downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) markets in 2023. OUTLOOK ’23: US base oil markets start sluggish but could firm By Amanda Hay 02-Jan-23 23:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US base oil supply is long against weak demand heading into 2023, but two major turnarounds in H1 should rebalance the markets. OUTLOOK: Lacklustre demand affecting US paraffin wax business in H1 2023 By Daniel Lopes 03-Jan-23 03:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Paraffin wax business is fiercely competing in many niche markets, including the tire, construction, packaging, candles, and food industries, as product technology, design, and price become even more important in retaining a loyal customer base related to slack and fully refined waxes. OUTLOOK ’23: US fuel, industrial ethanol facing competing factors in H1 By Taylor Merrell 02-Jan-23 18:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US fuel ethanol could face pressure in the new year if there are competing forces such as a recession versus if corn prices and natural gas continue to remain slightly elevated; whereas there could be some upward pressure for industrial ethanol if production and material costs remain elevated. Topic Page by Aura Sabadus and Will Beacham. Additional reporting by  Richard Ewing and Sophie Udubasceanu. Maps and graphs by Yashas Mudumbai.

Asia’s petrochemical markets continue to face tepid demand as economic recovery in regional bellwether China remains slower than initially expected following its reopening from the pandemic, with new production capacities adding to oversupply concerns. While China is on a recovery path after three years of intermittent COVID-related lockdowns, oil demand from the world’s second-biggest economy has so far fallen short of expectations. Nonetheless, China’s oil demand in 2023 is expected to post a strong growth from 2022. The country will account for more than 47% of the projected 2023 global oil demand growth of around 2m bbl/day, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). With the last wave of new capacity additions and easing of logistics constraints, the US petrochemical sector has a clear path to boosting exports to new records in 2023. Even with a recessionary global economic outlook dampening demand overseas and capacity surging in China, the US cost advantage is simply too great to hold back the floodgates. However, US petrochemical exports will run into a big headwind from a surge of new projects starting up in China. China will be adding record-breaking chemical and fertilizer capacity in 2023 of 137m tonnes/year, dwarfing the previous record of around 93m tonnes/year in 2014 and driving global oversupply, according to an ICIS analysis. Updated on 23 March 2023 On this topic page we analyse the impact of coronavirus and oil price dynamics on chemical markets and bring together the latest news reported by ICIS.  Scroll down to see the latest interactive graphics, podcasts and videos.  Click here to register for regular updates to help you navigate these challenging times. LATEST HEADLINES (Last updated at 07:00 GMT on 23 March 2023) Southeast Asia PP market braces for a tough Q2 By Jackie Wong 18-Mar-23 00:35 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–With demand on a considerable slowdown since the end of the Lunar New Year holiday in early February, the polypropylene (PP) market in southeast Asia is now bracing itself for an even tougher Q2 as different elements come together, threatening to create a perfect storm. Intra-Asia chemical tanker demand hampered by aromatics plant turnarounds By Hwee Hwee Tan 21-Mar-23 17:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Aromatics plant turnarounds in Asia and cargo diversions to the US gasoline blending sector are expected to continue to curtail intra-regional shipping demand into the second quarter. China PP prices fall to nearly three-year low amid increasing supply, lower-than-expected demand By Lucy Shuai 22-Mar-23 12:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China polypropylene (PP) prices fell to a nearly three-year-low amid increasing supply and lower-than-expected demand, and the market may remain under pressure in Q2. Asia petrochemicals demand tepid on macroeconomy, oversupply concerns By Nurluqman Suratman 24-Mar-23 14:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical markets continue to face tepid demand as economic recovery in regional bellwether China remains slower than initially expected, with new production capacities adding to oversupply concerns. Recessionary conditions to define H1, Q1 destocking still ‘palpable’ – LANXESS CEO By Tom Brown 15-Mar-23 21:15 COLOGNE (ICIS)–2023 will be a difficult for the chemicals sector, with market conditions likely to remain bleak through the end of the second quarter, the CEO of LANXESS Matthias Zachert said on Wednesday. Zachert also said the destocking trend that emerged in the closing months of 2022 continues to be felt. The impact of weaker demand in a high-cost, low-growth environment is likely to weigh on chemicals players globally through the first six months of 2023, with destocking continuing and customers hesitant about making substantial new commitments, according to Zachert. INSIGHT: China growth ambitions deliver a reality check while financial risk multiplies By Nigel Davis 14-Mar-23 23:33 LONDON (ICIS)–Petrochemicals production turned up in January following months of decline, as demand started to improve and prospects for growth brightened. But the take-off, from a miserable few months at the end of 2022, was slower than some hoped for – as evidenced by capacity utilisation. Subsequently, the brightness seen by some around the Lunar New Year holiday in China in February has dimmed and China’s government has delivered a dose of reality. ICIS data focus on basic chemicals and synthetic materials (that is, resins, elastomers and fibres), so the core petrochemical industry building blocks and the major polymers. In January, production of those materials rose 0.9% globally, to 280.9m tonnes. As ICIS chief economist, Kevin Swift, notes, this follows a 0.1% decline in December, a 1.9% decline in November “and generally declining activity since March”. The sector is by no means in a good place. Overall, production volumes were down 5.2% year on year in January with gains largely centred on North America, Central & South America, Europe and the Middle East. Production in northeast Asia was weak. Capacity utilisation improved in January by 0.4 percentage points to 66.2% which was encouraging but this rate compared with a much more robust 71.7% in January 2022. INSIGHT: US petchem exports to hit record on capacity surge, easing of logistics constraints By Joseph Chang 14-Mar-23 01:00 NEW YORK (ICIS)–With the last wave of new capacity additions and easing of logistics constraints, the US petrochemical sector has a clear path to boosting exports to new records in 2023. Even with a recessionary global economic outlook dampening demand overseas and capacity surging in China, the US cost advantage is simply too great to hold back the floodgates. US petrochemical exports will run into a big headwind from a surge of new projects starting up in China. China will be adding record-breaking chemical and fertilizer capacity in 2023 of 137m tonnes/year, dwarfing the previous record of around 93m tonnes/year in 2014 and driving global oversupply, according to an ICIS analysis. S Korea Q4 ’22 GDP contracts on quarter; full-year ’23 growth to slow on weak exports By Pearl Bantillo 07-Mar-23 13:50 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s economic output shrank by 0.4% in the October-December 2022 from the previous quarter, unchanged from advance estimates, as manufacturing and exports contracted amid a global economic slowdown. For the whole of 2022, manufacturing growth decelerated to 1.4% from 6.9% in the previous year, while export of goods posted a much slower growth of 3.4% from 10.5% in 2021. For 2023, full-year growth is projected to slow down to 1.6% amid high inflation and interest rates. “Growth will fall even further below its pre-pandemic average this year on a tougher base effect, high energy prices and higher interest rates. However, eased Covid-19 restrictions will provide some support,” said Matthew Cunningham, economist at Spain-based FocusEconomics had stated in a recent note. China sets conservative 5.0% GDP growth target; petrochemical markets cautious By Fanny Zhang 06-Mar-23 14:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has set its 2023 economic growth goal at around 5%, a conservative number underscoring an overall cautious outlook that sent crude prices falling on Monday after recent strong gains, while Chinese petrochemical futures markets largely mixed. At the start of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) in Beijing on 5 March, Chinese Premiere Li Keqiang announced the GDP growth target, lower than the previous year’s target of around 5.5% although the figure represents an acceleration from the actual 3.0% growth recorded in 2022. China’s parliament will be in session for 10 days to outline the country’s broad goals and plans for 2023. Economists deemed the GDP target realistic as the economy recovers from severe COVID-19 impact over the past three years. INSIGHT: LatAm petchems at mercy of global markets as China’s reopening key for prices By Jonathan Lopez 04-Mar-23 00:26 SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Latin American petrochemicals companies are dependent on a recovery in global prices to post healthier spreads in 2023 as all eyes are now on China’s economy reopening. Although Latin American petrochemicals producers and distributors concentrate on domestic consumers, China and other foreign markets are important for the region because they influence margins and stimulate demand for commodity exports. INSIGHT: Optimism on China recovery as manufacturing PMI leaps into expansion By Joseph Chang 02-Mar-23 07:00 NEW YORK (ICIS)–The long-awaited China recovery may finally be at hand, as a key leading indicator of manufacturing activity surged higher. Asia fatty alcohols to see improved sentiment following China Feb PMI data By Helen Yan 02-Mar-23 14:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s fatty alcohols and other oleochemical markets are likely to see an improvement in sentiment and demand, following the latest February data showing factory activity rising significantly in China. INSIGHT: European chemical producers see demand weakness persist but look to H2 2023 By Nigel Davis 28-Feb-23 23:51 LONDON (ICIS)–A slower than hoped for re-start in China but a turn up in key indicators in the US colour the macroeconomic outlook and the driving forces behind industrial production demand for chemicals. INSIGHT: East China toluene xylene price gap fluctuates amid shifting market dynamics By Veronica Zhang 28-Feb-23 19:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The East China toluene-xylene price gap has fluctuated widely in 2022 and early 2023 amid a shift in supply-demand fundamentals as export demand grew and domestic consumption remained more subdued. China phenol, acetone industry out of the red; uncertainties loom in March By Yoyo Liu 27-Feb-23 15:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s phenol and acetone industry has emerged from the red on increased prices after the Lunar New Year holiday on 21-27 January. INSIGHT: China imports of Russia oil to rise further in 2023 on cheap prices By Fanny Zhang 27-Feb-23 21:59 SINGPORE (ICIS)–China is expected to boost imports of Russia oil further in 2023 to take advantage of price discounts, with a significant increase likely in volumes flowing to independent refineries in Shandong. INSIGHT: Northeast Asia plasticizers exports to drive intense competition globally By Nicole Simpson 27-Feb-23 21:40 LONDON (ICIS)–Northeast Asian plasticizers exports are expected to continue to drive strong competition between sellers globally as China import interest remains low. INSIGHT: Weak consumer confidence weighs on China recovery post-reopening By Pearl Bantillo 22-Feb-23 23:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s prospects turned brighter after it abandoned its zero-COVID policy, but two of its major growth engines – exports and the property sector – may struggle to perform amid a general weakness in consumer confidence. The possibility of the world plunging into recession still cannot be ruled out. Bank of Korea pauses interest rate hikes, lowers economic growth forecast By Nurluqman Suratman 23-Feb-23 10:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s central bank on Thursday kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50% and lowered its economic growth forecast for 2023 amid slowing domestic consumption and exports. Asia Group II base oils supply to dip slightly on China demand pick-up By Matthew Chong 23-Feb-23 12:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s Group II base oils spot supply is expected to be slightly reduced in the coming months, after being in relative abundance since late 2022. INSIGHT: China bounce a bust By Joseph Chang 17-Feb-23 04:09 NEW YORK (ICIS)–Hopes for a quick rebound in China’s economy and demand for chemicals and plastics after the Lunar New Year and zero-COVID in the rearview mirror have been dashed thus far. While it is still early days and there are some signs of recovery, disappointment reigns for now. INSIGHT: China’s reopening having a gradual, positive impact on PE demand By Amy Yu 17-Feb-23 00:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Polyethylene (PE) markets in Asia are expected to recover more strongly in 2023 but the magnitude of growth may depend on the speed of demand recovery in China. Currently, demand in February is not stronger than expected. INSIGHT: Asia petrochemical prices to rise but margins under pressure in February – ICIS analysts By Ann Sun 15-Feb-23 20:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Higher prices in most value chains are expected in the Asia petrochemical market in February in view of balanced-to-tight fundamentals driven by subdued supply and restocking activities. However, companies are still struggling with negative margins. Global oil supply to exceed demand in H1 2023 – IEA By Tom Brown 15-Feb-23 19:54 LONDON (ICIS)–Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand for the first half of 2023, but the balance could quickly snap the other way later in the year as demand recovers and some Russian output and is shut out of parts of the world, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. Thai domestic PET average prices rise on increased buying pressure By Zachary Tia 14-Feb-23 22:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The average price for Thailand domestic spot bottle-grade polyethylene terephthalate (PET) cargoes firmed on the back of higher buying pressure in the week ended 10 February. China disappoints hopes of swift PP demand lift, global markets eye exports closely By Vicky Ellis 14-Feb-23 20:47 LONDON (ICIS)–A raft of offers of Chinese polypropylene (PP) into other regions, and signs that demand is not pinging back quickly, are denting hopes that a fast Chinese recovery will pull up global markets. Thai PTTGC expects demand recovery in 2023 on China reopening By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Feb-23 14:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thai petrochemical major PTT Global Chemicals expects demand for its aromatics and polymers products to improve this year following China’s reopening. Singapore Q4 economy expands by 2.1%, full-year 2022 GDP growth at 3.6% By Nurluqman Suratman 13-Feb-23 11:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s economy grew by 2.1% year on year in the fourth quarter, moderating from the 4.0% expansion in the previous quarter, amid a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, official data showed on Monday. INSIGHT: Petrochemicals beginning to expand again but margins challenged By Nigel Davis 07-Feb-23 00:25 LONDON (ICIS)–Signs of a tentative upturn for the major petrochemicals and polymers are welcome although it is clear that profitability is likely to remain under pressure in the first half. For the big polyolefins, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), additional supply creates a headache that will persist for some time. Thailand R-PET feedstock supply rises on recovering tourism By Arianne Perez 07-Feb-23 12:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Spot availability of post-consumer bale feedstock in Thailand has been increasing for weeks now due to more tourists coming back to the country. China January petrochemical markets rebound; near-term outlook mixed By Yvonne Shi 08-Feb-23 13:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical markets posted strong gains in holiday-shortened January, largely in anticipation of strong demand post Lunar New Year as both production and consumption picked up after the country abandoned its zero-COVID policy. NE Asia C2 up in supply-led recovery; China downstream demand still slow By Yeow Pei Lin 10-Feb-23 11:43 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene (C2) prices advanced as supply decreased on cracker turnarounds and reduced inflows from other regions. Asian EPDM stays soft, eyes on Q2 China recovery By Ai Teng Lim 08-Feb-23 11:51 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Discussions are limited this week in Asia’s spot market for ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) imports, as sluggish buying persisted. Lower demand drives down slack wax prices in the US By Daniel Lopes 09-Feb-23 07:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US slack wax prices are falling based on lacklustre demand and ample supply in Q1. A market participant said sales in January were particularly low when compared to the same period last year, and this is due to continued high inflation and economic uncertainties, which have changed consumption habits. Asia naphtha buoyed by crude oil; thin demand limits gains By Melanie Wee 08-Feb-23 17:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia naphtha markets are being propped up by gains in global crude oil futures although a lack of robust demand is keeping a lid on the upward pressure. Asia BDO extends post-Lunar New Year gains amid snug availability By Clive Ong 03-Feb-23 11:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s butanediol (BDO) market extended gains after the Lunar New Year holidays, while snug availability and renewed demand in the region fuelled talk of further potential strength in the market. Asia soda ash market firms on limited supply, robust China demand By Helen Lee 02-Feb-23 15:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s soda ash market has firmed on the back of limited export volumes from China, where domestic demand strengthened after the Lunar New Year holidays. China post-holiday demand key indicator for oleochemical trade flows By Lucas Hall 02-Feb-23 02:48 ORLANDO (ICIS)–Chinese demand following the end of Lunar New Year will be the key indicator in determining oleochemical trade flows in 1H 2023, according to sources on the sidelines of the American Cleaning Institute (ACI) annual meeting and industry convention. US styrene market stabilises after plants return to production By John Donnelly 31-Jan-23 22:55 HOUSTON (ICIS)–After several plant outages that boosted spot prices, the US styrene market has stabilised with units back in operation although running at reduced rates. Soft demand and rising feedstock costs promise to pressure margins through Q1. China official Jan manufacturing PMI swings to expansion mode at 50.1 By Nurluqman Suratman 31-Jan-23 12:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) crossed to expansionary territory in January at 50.1, from a 34-month low of 47.0 in the previous month as the country relaxed its zero-COVID policy, official data showed on Tuesday. China 2023 GDP growth forecast revised up to 5.2% as activity recovers – IMF By Nurluqman Suratman 31-Jan-23 11:58 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s GDP growth is projected to rebound to 5.2% in 2023 from 3.0% last year as a sudden lifting of most its pandemic-related restrictions paved the way for a rapid rebound in economic activity, according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released on Tuesday. Developing Asia economic growth forecast raised to 5.3% – IMF By Nurluqman Suratman 31-Jan-23 11:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Economic growth in emerging and developing Asian economies is expected to rise in 2023 and 2024 to 5.3% and 5.2%, respectively, after the deeper-than-expected slowdown in 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. Dow expects Chinese stimulus, reopening to boost demand By Al Greenwood 27-Jan-23 03:37 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Dow is seeing signs that China’s reopening from COVID-19 lockdowns is progressing, and that should increase demand for its products, along with government stimulus, the CEO said on Thursday. “We’re seeing China opening up. We’re not seeing issues with people coming to work,” said Jim Fitterling, CEO. He made his comments during an earnings conference call. Other CEOs have also remarked that employees are returning to work, according to Fitterling. Right now, Dow is not seeing any COVID-19 outbreaks that China cannot manage, he said. Asia naphtha market sentiment mixed; eyes on China’s recovery By Melanie Wee 26-Jan-23 12:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia naphtha markets are being kept afloat by hopes of recovering China petrochemical demand, although diminishing downstream margins are keeping demand cautious. Spot naphtha CFR (cost and freight) Japan indicative prices averaged at $715.50/tonne for first-half March delivery at midday session on Thursday, holding on to the previous day’s Asia close. Prices have climbed by some 10% compared with month-earlier levels, fluctuating with volatile crude oil futures, ICIS data shows. CRUDE SUMMARY: Oil prices steady as market awaits OPEC+ panel meeting By Eloise Radley 26-Jan-23 04:27 LONDON (ICIS) – Crude prices remained relatively steady on Wednesday, staying within $1/bbl of Tuesday’s settlement price. Hopes of increased demand in China balanced builds in US crude and gasoline stocks.Weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude stocks saw a marginal build of 0.53m bbl last week. Despite this build, the rise was over six times smaller than the anticipated 3.4m bbl. This applied slight upwards pressure to prices in afternoon trading. However, gasoline stock increased by 1.76m bbl, over double the expected 0.62m bbl. US distillate stocks fell by 0.51m bbl, less than the predicted 1.90m bbl drop. Asia petrochemicals pin hopes on China’s post-holiday demand By Pearl Bantillo 25-Jan-23 14:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical players are largely betting on strong revival of China’s demand following lifting of most COVID-19 curbs, having built up stocks in the weeks leading to the Lunar New Year holiday. At midday, naphtha, as well as aromatics products benzene and toluene, were trading higher on the back of crude gains, which were being driven up by optimism over China’s economic prospects after the world’s second-biggest economy abandoned its zero-COVID policy. China is on holiday the whole week for the Lunar New Year festivities. Most other countries in northeast Asia and southeast Asia also observed the holiday at the start of the week. VIDEO: China chemicals market review and outlook By Chris Qi 20-Jan-23 11:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Watch ICIS China information director Chris Qi review China chemical industry in 2022 and an outlook for the industry in 2023. China ethylene buyers’ price ideas edge up ahead of holiday By Yeow Pei Lin 20-Jan-23 11:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene prices rebounded slightly in recent days, aided by limited offers, improving prices for certain derivatives in China and strong feedstock naphtha costs. European engineering plastics demand stays sluggish in light of persistent economic uncertainty By Yashas Mudumbai 20-Jan-23 00:34 LONDON (ICIS)–The engineering plastics markets for polyacetal (POM) and polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) in Europe are continuing to see lower than usual demand, as macroeconomic challenges cause market players to be circumspect. INSIGHT: Chems face rough earnings season amid warnings, lower margins By Al Greenwood 20-Jan-23 00:04 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Chemical companies have kicked off the earnings season by waring that they could miss analysts’ estimates and struggle to keep up with rising costs. Malaysia central bank maintains 2.75% key interest rate amid economic headwinds By Nurluqman Suratman 19-Jan-23 18:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s central bank on Thursday unexpectedly kept its key benchmark interest rate unchanged amid expectations that the country’s 2023 economic growth will moderate this year amid a global slowdown. Pakistani buyers struggle to pay Asian R-PET, R-PE cargoes By Arianne Perez 19-Jan-23 18:10 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–As Pakistan struggles with a financial crisis, importers of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) and recycled polyethylene (R-PE) have struggled to settle payments with suppliers. China MDI markets see active restocking spurred on by planned turnarounds By Shannen Ng 19-Jan-23 12:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–News of two major methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) producers in China planning turnarounds for February spurred restocking activity in the week ending 18 January, ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Oil falls by more than $1/bbl on surprise build in US crude inventories By Nurluqman Suratman 19-Jan-23 12:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell by more than $1/bbl on Thursday after industry data showed a surprise build in US crude inventories for the second straight week, raising concerns of faltering fuel demand. Asia BDO rebounds as buyers pin hopes on renewed post-holiday demand By Clive Ong 19-Jan-23 11:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market surged this week as buying momentum for February cargoes picked up on expectations of firmer demand post-Lunar New Year. US economy poised to enter mild recession as inflation has peaked – ICIS economist By Joseph Chang 19-Jan-23 05:30 NEW YORK (ICIS)–The US economy is likely to enter a relatively mild recession in 2023, the ICIS chief economist said on Wednesday. INSIGHT: Poor demand, high costs stifle Europe industry despite falling gas prices By Aura Sabadus 18-Jan-23 22:56 LONDON (ICIS)–Falling gas prices could reignite some interest in European industrial output but a combination of high operating costs and sluggish demand, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, is likely to slow recovery this year, according to ICIS research. European phenol struggles with costs while acetone tightens, but demand remains slow By Jane Gibson 18-Jan-23 22:07 LONDON (ICIS)–The recent fall in gas prices is good news for the phenol and acetone chain. But this alone is unlikely to prompt producers to increase operating rates quite yet. Japan’s Toyota targets record ’23 car output of 10.6m units, with caveat By Pearl Bantillo 18-Jan-23 13:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Global automotive giant Toyota is targeting to produce 10.6m units in 2023, subject to a possible downward adjustment of 10% if problems with supply of semiconductors persist. Bank of Japan maintains low interest rates despite rising inflation By Nurluqman Suratman 18-Jan-23 12:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Wednesday maintained its ultra-low interest rate policy despite rising inflation levels and warned that risks to the country’s economic outlook remain extremely high. Asia MEC underpinned by hopes of post-Lunar New Year recovery By Keven Zhang 18-Jan-23 11:32 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia methylene chloride (MEC) was buoyed by spot demand in the last week before the Lunar New Year. Europe ECH demand muted in Q1, could improve in Q2 By Heidi Finch 18-Jan-23 00:21 LONDON (ICIS)–Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) demand is likely to face a tough first quarter, as macroeconomic headwinds and Asian competition continue to weigh. OUTLOOK ’23: Chemical M&A stymied by rates, uncertainty but may rebound in H2 By Joseph Chang 18-Jan-23 00:00 NEW YORK (ICIS)–High interest rates, lack of available financing and economic and earnings uncertainty are holding back chemical industry mergers and acquisitions (M&A). However, activity may be poised to rebound in H2 2023 as the backlog of undone deals builds up, a clearer earnings picture emerges and especially if the financing market improves. INSIGHT: Asia petrochemicals to rebound in January amid demand recovery – ICIS analysts By Jenny Yi 17-Jan-23 21:45 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asia petrochemical market is expected to rebound from January in view of demand recovery in the coming months with China’s abandonment of its strict zero-COVID policy. The appreciation of Asia currencies against the US dollar should also support the outlook. PODCAST: Europe PE, PP analytical 2023 outlook By Ben Lake 17-Jan-23 19:35 LONDON (ICIS)–European polymer editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake are joined by analysts Emiliano Basualto and Lorenzo Meazza to discuss the year ahead in what could be a transitional 12 months for the polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets. NE Asia polyester prices stable to firm; post-holiday outlook optimistic By Judith Wang 17-Jan-23 16:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Spot polyester prices in northeast Asia were stable to firm during the week, on the back of stronger feedstock prices, while overall buying has slowed ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. China 2022 GDP growth slows to 3%; re-opening to drive 2023 recovery By Nurluqman Suratman 17-Jan-23 16:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economy grew by 3% in 2022, marking its slowest pace of expansion in decades, highlighting the impact of the country’s long-standing zero-COVID strategy. India December exports fall 12.2% amid global economic slowdown By Priya Jestin 17-Jan-23 14:21 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s merchandise exports in December declined by 12.2% year on year to $34.5bn, with further weakness likely in 2023 amid the global economic slowdown, with its major markets – the US and Europe – possibly facing a recession. BPA prices in China, India at more than two-year low; ample supply may linger By Li Peng Seng 17-Jan-23 11:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Import prices of bisphenol A (BPA) in China and India have slumped to their lowest levels in more than two years, weighed down by ample supply. INSIGHT: Weak, sometimes negative product margins challenged petchem players in 2022 By Nigel Davis 16-Jan-23 23:54 LONDON (ICIS)–As in the depths of the COVID-19 downturn, chemical producers, particularly those based largely in northwest Europe, remain focused on cash. Global weekly spot IPEX up on rising chemical prices across all regions By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 16-Jan-23 18:57 LONDON (ICIS)–Spot chemical prices were up 2.2% on the back of firmer values across all regions, according to latest figures from the weekly ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX). Qatar’s $6bn Ras Laffan project to boost Mideast PE exports, shift trade flows By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Jan-23 13:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Qatar’s $6bn joint venture Ras Laffan petrochemicals complex is expected to boost the Middle East’s polyethylene (PE) exports and could result in a major shift to global trade flows once it comes on stream, according to ICIS analysts. China re-opening bodes well for SE Asia PE, but Lunar New Year slowdowns ahead By Izham Ahmad 16-Jan-23 11:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s surprise announcement of the re-opening of its borders and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions has injected renewed vigour into the southeast Asian PE market, but the impact could be short-lived as market activity slows down for the typical Lunar New Year holiday lull. INSIGHT: A turbulent 2020s requires near-term focus but clear, longer-term strategies By Nigel Davis 12-Jan-23 00:49 LONDON (ICIS)–The World Economic Forum (WEF) talks of a global risks landscape this year that “feels both wholly new and eerily familiar” in its Global Risks Report 2023. INSIGHT: Downward pressure on petchem and plastics prices persists globally By Nigel Davis 11-Jan-23 01:19 LONDON (ICIS)–Falling base chemical and polymer prices globally reflect the weaker and uncertain demand environment while shifted supply and demand balances have coloured spot activity at the end of 2022 and the start of 2023 for a handful of chemical commodities. The ICIS Petrochemical Index tracked down further in December with the focus on the US Gulf basket of prices: the 12 commodities and polymers collated for the index. China petrochemical players build stocks on hopes of strong post-holiday demand By Fanny Zhang 12-Jan-23 11:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Players in China’s petrochemical markets are actively building up stocks on expectation of a strong recovery in post-Lunar New Year demand. East Asia, Pacific 2023 growth seen at 4.3% on China rebound – World Bank By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Jan-23 15:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Economies in the east Asia and Pacific region in 2023 are expected to log an average growth of 4.3%, accelerating from the estimated 3.2% pace in 2022 but lower than the previous forecast of above 5% for the current year, the World Bank said. NE Asia ethylene falls on weak China demand, ample supply By Yeow Pei Lin 06-Jan-23 10:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene market started 2023 on a soft note due to China’s raging COVID-19 outbreak, which has exacerbated the seasonal downstream demand lull ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. China Dec petrochemical markets weak; better post-Lunar New Year demand eyed By Yvonne Shi 05-Jan-23 14:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical markets stayed depressed in December despite substantial relaxation of pandemic-related lockdowns, as a consequent spike in COVID-19 infections continued to restrict logistics operations. Any recovery in demand is unlikely until after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday on 21-27 January. OUTLOOK ’23: US PVC and vinyls chain face new year of weakened demand By Bill Bowen 05-Jan-23 04:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) enters 2023 with mixed outlook: nominations for price increases for January and an economic outlook that runs counter to those separately proposed increases. OUTLOOK ’23: China ACN, downstream capacities to expand; oversupply challenges prevail By Candy Nie 06-Jan-23 12:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s acrylonitrile (ACN) market will continue to see a slew of capacity expansions, particularly in the first half of 2023. Downstream demand is also expected to rise with new downstream units coming online and some COVID-19 restrictions gradually easing since end-2022. OUTLOOK ’23: Plant activity will tighten US propylene balance even as economy undermines demand By John Donnelly 05-Jan-23 03:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Derivative demand for US propylene will remain weak until at least Q3, but plant maintenance and a new propylene oxide/tertiary butyl alcohol (POTBA) plant will help support the market in the first half of the year. OUTLOOK ’23: Weak demand, import pressure to persist in Europe MPG market By Nicole Simpson 05-Jan-23 18:30 LONDON (ICIS)–Demand in the European mono propylene glycol (MPG) market is expected to remain lacklustre, especially in Q1, as macroeconomic headwinds and pressure from Asian imports persist. OUTLOOK ’23: Jet kerosene demand to increase on relaxed COVID-19 restrictions By Cassandra Abolaji 04-Jan-23 20:00 LONDON (ICIS)–The outlook for the European jet kerosene market is optimistic for 2023, as the world reaches almost full recovery from COVID-19 travel restrictions. OUTLOOK ‘23: New capacity, China’s COVID-19 surge weigh on Asia EVA market By Helen Lee 04-Jan-23 15:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s supply of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) is expected to lengthen as new capacities start-up, while surging COVID-19 cases in China following easing of pandemic-related restrictions could cap demand recovery in the first quarter of 2023. China Dec PMI at 34-month low; recovery expected to come in Feb By Fanny Zhang 03-Jan-23 15:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slumped to a 34-month low of 47.0 in December amid fast-spreading COVID-19 outbreaks. Recovery is expected to happen in February when factories come back on stream from the Lunar New Year holiday break. OUTLOOK ’23: Mid East, South Asia PS markets to hinge on SM trend, China’s recovery By Damini Dabholkar 29-Dec-22 10:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Q1 2023 outlook for polystyrene (PS) markets in the Middle East and South Asia remains uncertain and will largely be dependent on the availability and prices of upstream commodities. The market is not expected show any strong signs of recovery, however, at least until end January, which is when many countries in Asia celebrate the Lunar New Year. Post Lunar New Year, demand is likely to see an uptick, as has been observed historically. OUTLOOK ’23: Automotive sector hits the brakes for growth prospects By Morgan Condon 28-Dec-22 22:30 LONDON (ICIS)–Conditions have been challenging for the automotive industry in recent years, and no immediate reprieve is expected in the near term against a backdrop of geopolitical volatility. Growth expectations for 2022 were not fulfilled and the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the end of February stifled any post-pandemic macroeconomic recovery. This trend looks set to continue in the industry in 2023. China downgrades COVID, stops quarantine for inbound travellers By Fanny Zhang 27-Dec-22 11:29 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China will downgrade COVID-19 to a more common infectious disease, manage it at Category B instead of the top-level Category A and scrap quarantine for inbound travellers from 8 January, the National Health Commission (NHC) announced late on Monday. Currently, COVID-19 is classified as Category B but managed as Category A that applies to diseases like plague and cholera in China. OUTLOOK ’23: Europe naphtha demand to improve, Russian sanctions to tighten supply By Cassandra Abolaji 23-Dec-22 00:30 LONDON (ICIS)–The Europe naphtha market ended 2022 on a volatile note and will remain volatile at the start of 2023. This after months of weakening feedstock demand partially caused by China’s absence from the market due to lingering COVID-19 restrictions and high oil prices. OUTLOOK ’23: Europe MX to lag behind pre-COVID-19 levels despite improved consumption By Zubair Adam 23-Dec-22 00:30 LONDON (ICIS)–2022 has been a rough year for mixed xylenes (MX) in Europe mainly due to issues with gasoline and global events impacting chemical demand with no significant recovery prior to pre-pandemic levels. OUTLOOK 23’: China toluene market may face oversupply and trade flow change China toluene market pivoted from net import to net export in 2022 amid Russia-Ukraine war, but in 2023 the domestic market might face increased supply whereas demand weakness may persist putting pressure on the export market. OUTLOOK ’23: Asia PP’s potential oversupply may outweigh China’s demand recoveryPossible oversupply in Asia’s polypropylene (PP) market may outweigh the impact of demand recovery in China in 2023. OUTLOOK ’23: Asia BDO to struggle with long supply while awaiting demand rebound The Asian 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market continues to be mired in weakness, while the malaise could extend into the new year given the slow market conditions amid the yearend lull and the upcoming Lunar New Year holidays in the second half of January. OUTLOOK ’23: Asia IPA to see poor demand, ample supply in H1 2023 Asian isopropanol (IPA) spot markets will likely face headwinds in the first half of 2023 on poor demand and ample supply. OUTLOOK ’23: Asian PET to face headwinds as supply likely to outstrip demand Asia’s polyethylene terephthalate (PET) supply will likely outstrip demand in 2023 on the back of new capacities scheduled to come online in the upcoming year. OUTLOOK ’23: Asia adipic acid supply to increase amid demand concerns Asia’s adipic acid market will see an increase in overall production capacity in 2023, however, the bigger question for the industry is whether its downstream derivatives are growing at a pace quick enough to support it. OUTLOOK ‘23: China’s MX to face further uncertainty from downstream PX China’s mixed xylene (MX) prices surged to a decade-high level on soaring crude oil prices in the first half of 2022, before fluctuating downwards in the second half of 2022. In 2023, the market may see support from the launch of some downstream paraxylene (PX) units, but this could depend on the profitability of the PX industry. OUTLOOK ’23: East, south Asia ethanolamines to face supply headwind The ethanolamines market in east and south Asia remains under downward pressure towards the end of the year. Tepid demand appears entrenched with limited signs of any significant rebound in the near term. OUTLOOK ’23: East and South Asia LAB mired in weakness although optimism remains The linear alkylbenzene (LAB) markets in east and south Asia continue to be mired in weakness with demand in a low ebb. Buyers remain mostly unhurried with supply ample in most regions. Asia petrochemicals sector to bottom out in December By Jimmy Zhang 16-Dec-22 12:15 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Although bullish sentiment has started to develop in Asian petrochemical markets from early December amid China’s easing of pandemic curbs, concerns are still in place amid the global economic headwinds and slowing of trading activity ahead of year-end holidays. China petchems demand recovery unlikely before Q2 2023 despite easing COVID restrictions By Jenny Yi 14-Dec-22 23:34 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s zero-COVID strategy has been eased since early December. ICIS analysts expect, however, that demand for most commodity petrochemicals will not improve significantly in the short term, and that large-scale recovery may only begin in the second quarter of 2023. Asia fatty acids near-term demand tepid; may pick up after Lunar New Year By Helen Yan 14-Dec-22 12:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s fatty acids demand will remain tepid in the near term amid the year-end holiday lull but will likely pick up after the Lunar New Year holidays next year. INSIGHT: Chemicals output falls as industrial activity contracts globally, 2023 expected weak By Nigel Davis 14-Dec-22 00:23 LONDON (ICIS)–It is not so much a question of how low will it go but how slow will it be – and for how long? Capacity utilisation data show that the chemicals sector globally has geared down in the face of current headwinds. And there are many of those. China petrochemical futures mixed; near-term demand recovery in doubt By Fanny Zhang 08-Dec-22 13:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical futures markets were mixed on Thursday morning as demand may remain soft despite a further relaxation in the country’s COVID-19 curbs. “We don’t see any strong demand recovery for commodities in the short term,” said Zhang Junfeng, an analyst at brokerage China Merchant Securities. “Consumer confidence still needs time to rebuild,” Zhang said. Late on 7 December, the Chinese government announced 10 measures to optimise its COVID-19 policy, including allowing people with mild or no symptoms to quarantine at home, and cancelling of testing requirements for domestic travelers. GPCA ’22: Supply chain localisation could help reduce logistics pressure – Saudi society By Tom Brown 07-Dec-22 23:15 RIYADH (ICIS)–Supply chain operators should shift further towards localised operations and away from globalisation to build resilience and adapt to the volatility that has strained logistics for several years, the chairman of the board for the Saudi Supply Chain and Procurement Society said. The current state of extreme stress on global trade links that has been seen since the COVID-19 pandemic decoupled movement along traditional supply routes is unlikely to be a temporary phase, and further localisation of supply chains could be a solution, according to Supply and Procurement Association board chair Saleh Ibrahim Al-Shabnan. INSIGHT: Easing in supply chains could signal further problems for Europe’s chems sector ahead By Morgan Condon 02-Dec-22 20:46 LONDON (ICIS)–Easing supply chain disruption has given petrochemical producers in Europe some respite in the wake of recent crashing demand. But the smoother flow of product could lead to further destabilising of market fundamentals, rather than providing balance to the market. As new orders in Europe have subsided, this has given room for producers to catch up with backlogs, smoothing out extended lead times, and allowing congested bottlenecks to dissipate. While this has been some help in the short-term, the likelihood is that diminished appetite for materials could eventually disrupt logistics, as deliveries slow down to match need. US manufacturing contracts for first time in 30 months By Stefan Baumgarten 02-Dec-22 01:04 HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell by 1.2 points from 50.2 in October to 49.0 in November – pushing the index into contraction territory, last seen in May 2020 during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, ICIS senior economist Kevin Swift said. He was commenting on the November PMI report by Institute for Supply Management (ISM), released earlier on Thursday, which showed the first contraction in manufacturing after 29 consecutive expansions. Caixin’s Nov China manufacturing PMI rises to 49.4 By Nurluqman Suratman 01-Dec-22 10:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Caixin’s China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 49.4 in November from 49.2 in October but remained in contractionary territory as ongoing COVID-19 containment measures continued to weigh on the sector, the Chinese media firm said on Thursday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates  expansion in the manufacturing economy, while a lower number denotes contraction. Manufacturers in China registered a further fall in output, with the rate of contraction picking up slightly from October, amid a sustained reduction in sales, Caixin said in a statement. Companies frequently linked the decline to the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on operations and customer demand,” Caixin said. UK manufacturing woes continue as output, new orders and employment fall By Jonathan Lopez 01-Dec-22 20:45 MADRID (ICIS)–The UK’s manufacturing sectors remained in contraction territory in November because of lower output, shrinking orders, and reduced employment levels, analysts at S&P Global said on Thursday. The UK’s PMI index came in at 46.5 points in November, a slight improvement from October’s 46.2 points, but any reading below the 50.0 points mark shows contraction. “The intermediate goods sector fared especially poorly, while downturns also continued at consumer and investment goods producers,” said the analysts. INSIGHT: Preparing for a difficult winter in Europe and a tougher 2023/24 By Nigel Davis 26-Nov-22 00:56 LONDON (ICIS)–A mild autumn has alleviated some of the tension in Europe’s energy markets and the pressure on natural gas availability. But colder weather beckons and gas usage will rise putting, as it does in normal years, upward pressure on gas prices. The filling of storage tanks across the continent has provided a buffer against the worst damage that the Russia-Ukraine war can do to Europe’s energy supply, while reduced demand by industry has made a significant contribution. What is not clear is how energy availability to industry, and the costs of that gas and power, change moving into 2023. NE Asia ethylene output to remain weak up to at least H1 2023 By Yeow Pei Lin 25-Nov-22 11:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s ethylene production is expected to be constricted by heavy cracker turnarounds, poor margins and weak downstream demand up to at least the first half of 2023. China’s weak phenol imports to prompt deeper output cuts in Asia By Helen Lee 25-Nov-22 16:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s phenol imports are being weighed down by a combination of ample domestic supply, rising COVID-19 caseloads, easing upstream markets, and the absence of restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in late January. SE Asia PE market dazed by China stop-start demand By Izham Ahmad 24-Nov-22 16:36 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Initial spot import offers for December shipments of polyethylene (PE) in southeast Asia were announced in the same range as the previous week’s assessment or softer this week, with market players baffled by the stop-start nature of China’s demand for PE. German manufacturers increase warehouse capacity post-pandemic By Morgan Condon 23-Nov-22 20:40 LONDON (ICIS)–German industrial players have expanded warehouse capacity and focus more on supply chains in the wake of the pandemic, according to the latest data released by the Ifo Institute on Wednesday. Results of the study from the economic research group found that 68% of companies surveyed increased warehouse sizing, with 65% seeking additional suppliers since 2020, and 54% of firms now monitor their supply chains more closely. The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 initially caused a slowdown in manufacturing, as regions applied lockdowns, and implemented restrictions at ports and borders to contain the spread of the virus. IMF urges China to further recalibrate COVID-19 strategy By Nurluqman Suratman 23-Nov-22 18:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged China to further recalibrate its COVID-19 strategy and provide additional support to its beleaguered property sector to mitigate risks from a global economic slowdown. Following the recovery from the initial impact of the pandemic, the world’s second-biggest economy remains under pressure, with growth projected to slow to 3.2% in 2022, from an 8.1% pace last year, before improving to 4.4% in 2023 and 2024, the IMF stated on 22 November following a review of China’s economic conditions. PODCAST: Sustainable development may create new growth space for petrochemical industry By Yvonne Shi 18-Nov-22 11:29 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS analysts Jady Ma and Yvonne Shi discuss how sustainable development is working on the petrochemical industry and subsequent reactions. PODCAST: Macroeconomics prove challenging for global chems in 2023, although some bright spots remain By Morgan Condon 16-Nov-22 22:50 LONDON (ICIS)–After several challenging years in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, volatile geopolitical conditions and a tough macroeconomic backdrop mean that things are unlikely to turn a corner for global chemicals producers heading into the new year. Senior economist for global chemicals Kevin Swift talks to senior reporter for Europe Morgan Condon about the outlook for the coming year, and the key features for the market in 2023. INSIGHT: Lacklustre demand from various outlets impacting polyols, TDI and toluene By Zubair Adam 17-Nov-22 21:03 LONDON (ICIS)–Weaker activity from the automotive and flexible foam industries is impacting the consumption of polyols and toluene diisocyanate (TDI), with some additional impacts from the latter on feedstock toluene due to lower production. No short term demand recovery is envisaged for the whole value chain. INSIGHT: China’s property rescue plan to boost some petrochemicals By Fanny Zhang 16-Nov-22 20:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s latest measures to rescue the stressed property sector are expected to lift some petrochemicals, although they are unlikely to reverse bearish sentiment on the sluggish property market, according to economists and analysts. China outlook dims further on fresh COVID-19 surge, real estate slump By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Nov-22 13:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economic outlook just turned dimmer amid downbeat October data, with surging domestic COVID-19 infections and slumping real estate market threatening to aggravate weak petrochemical demand. Asia soap noodles to remain sluggish in near term on year-end holiday lull By Helen Yan 16-Nov-22 10:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s soap noodles market is likely to remain sluggish in the near term as buyers remain cautious and are reluctant to lock in large forward spot volumes ahead of the year-end holiday lull. China’s zero COVID-19 policy has had an impact on regional trade. Weak demand outweighs refined COVID-19 policy, capping China PP price rise By Zhibo Xiao 15-Nov-22 16:02 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s polypropylene (PP) futures surged following the release of the refined COVID-19 policy on 11 November, but the market may still face pressure toward the year-end amid tepid demand recovery, intensive arrivals of competitively-priced imports and expected new plant start-ups. Asia’s MIBK players pin hopes in 2023 rally By Angeline Soh 15-Nov-22 16:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) players expressed hopes in a 2023 rally, after the easing of global COVID-19 infection rates, and China’s easing of some of its strictest restrictions based on its zero-Covid policy. China eases COVID-19 curbs, petrochemical futures boosted By Fanny Zhang 11-Nov-22 16:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China will relax its COVID-19 control measures in view of changing circumstances, shoring up equity markets accordingly. The National Health Commission (NHC) announced 20 measures on Friday in a push for more targeted and optimised control of the pandemic. Under the new policies, the quarantine time for close contacts of cases is shortened to five days in centralised locations from seven previously. Asia ethylene little changed as players await direction from ’23 term talks By Yeow Pei Lin 11-Nov-22 11:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s ethylene spot import prices for December-arrival cargoes were broadly stable this week, as the weak downstream margins and strong US arrivals continued to be counterbalanced by limited regional supply. Bearish sentiment dominates Asia November petrochemical markets By Amy Yu 11-Nov-22 10:29 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Bearish sentiment in Asian petrochemical markets has risen due to weak demand from late October, and we expect prices of most products in the region to remain on a downward trend in November. US chem shares surge as broader market rises on positive inflation data By Adam Yanelli 11-Nov-22 06:23 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-listed shares of chemical companies surged on Thursday, largely outperforming the broader market which rose significantly on favourable economic data on inflation.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 3.7%, while the Dow Jones US Chemicals Index rose by 4.95% and the S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index rose by 5%. Europe PET buyers lured by imports, but demand questionable By Caroline Murray 11-Nov-22 01:58LONDON (ICIS)–The window of opportunity for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) importers appears wide due to Europe’s unique cost situation, but demand is so low that PET buyers are unsure how to proceed. British industrial demand to remain below previous years By ICIS Editorial 10-Nov-22 01:05 LONDON (ICIS)–Despite recent pressure to NBP Day-ahead and front month gas prices, a return to high levels of industrial offtake in Britain is unlikely, ICIS analysis shows. Normal industrial demand over the past five years has averaged 10mcm daily. However, since the rise of gas prices in Britain, industrial gas offtake has dropped to around 5.6mcm from January to November 2022. EU, eurozone September chems prices decline modestly in split market By Morgan Condon 10-Nov-22 01:30 LONDON (ICIS)–Chemical pricing in September was mixed for European producers, with some key manufacturing nations bucking the modest declines recorded in the eurozone and wider EU, according to the EU’s statistical agency, Eurostat. The latest data from Eurostat indicates that Italy and Poland recorded single-figure gains compared with the previous month, supported by smaller gains in France and Germany. Asia BDO retreats on poor demand, weak domestic China market By Clive Ong 10-Nov-22 11:27 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market trended lower as demand in the region dissipated amid a poor economic outlook. Some participants believe that demand in the region, in particular China, could remain weak until after the Lunar New Year in late January. Asia petrochemical markets mixed amid high inflation By Felicia Loo 09-Nov-22 14:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical markets were mixed amid economic headwinds and dampening consumption in China amid a slowing economy, with no let-up on its harsh zero COVID-19 policy, dampening consumption. China, India ethanolamines markets under downward pressure as demand wanes By Clive Ong 10-Nov-22 14:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ethanolamines markets in China and India remain under downward pressure amid prevailing weak demand and ample supply. Participants continue to expect weak markets in the near term as the global economic outlook remains uncertain. China’s MEC demand disrupted by zero-COVID strategy By Keven Zhang 09-Nov-22 11:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s methylene chloride (MEC) prices saw steep falls in the past two weeks due to disruption to its domestic demand by the new round of lockdowns implemented to contain the COVID-19 spread in the country, although production cutbacks may provide some support in the near term. INSIGHT: More pain for chemicals as US Federal Reserve has ‘a ways to go’ on rate hikes By Joseph Chang 03-Nov-22 06:25 NEW YORK (ICIS)–US and global chemical producers will likely see more pain ahead as the US Federal Reserve still has a “ways to go” in its tightening cycle to bring inflation down to its 2% target. It’s not pausing or pivoting, and not budging from its target. The US equity market as measured by the S&P 500 fell 2.5% on 2 November on disappointment that the Fed gave no indication it will stop interest raising rates, other than acknowledging it has already tightened monetary policy significantly. The Fed hiked its benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage points – its third consecutive hike of that magnitude – to a range of 3.75-4.00%. “Our message is clear – we think we have a ways to go. We have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to that level… we think is sufficiently restrictive,” said Fed chair Jerome Powell at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference. INSIGHT: Asia October PMIs point to broadening export downturn By Nurluqman Suratman 02-Nov-22 17:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Amid falling new orders and inventory build-up, Asia’s export downturn is broadening with the latest data pointing to further weakness in factory activity across the region. The slowdown in manufacturing activity has now widened from northeast Asia to also include southeast Asia amid waning export demand. Asia’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMIs) fell in October to an average of 49.6, down from 50.7 in September, due largely to a fall in new orders and lower production as export orders weakened further. China’s Oct petchem market falls on oversupply, poor confidence By Yvonne Shi 02-Nov-22 12:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical market fell significantly in October. As of October 31, the ICIS China Petrochemical Price Index (which tracks 17 commodities) dropped 5.4% from September 30 to close at 1220.11 points. The quick fall after a sharp rise after the National Day holiday reflects sluggish demand and lack of market confidence. China’s petrochemical market started the downtrend from the middle of the month till the end. An official source before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China disclosed that China’s epidemic prevention and control will continue to adhere to the zero-COVID policy, which hit market confidence severely. UK manufacturing sector output contracts further as new orders dry up By Tom Brown 01-Nov-22 20:00 LONDON (ICIS)–UK manufacturing sector output slipped further into contraction in October, and hit a 29-month low as new order volumes shrank at the fastest rate since May 2020, according to data from S&P Global on Tuesday. The sector purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell further in the month, dropping to 46.2 from 48.4 in September, although they were stronger than initial readings for the month of 45.8. A PMI score below 50.0 signifies contraction. It was the third consecutive month of contraction for the sector, as the economic outlook continued to deteriorate. New orders and new export business both declined in the month. Players in the UK cited softer demand from China, the war in Ukraine and ongoing obstacles to exporting posed by Brexit. Business optimism slipped to the lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. China posts 3.9% Q3 GDP growth; President Xi secures third term By Pearl Bantillo 24-Oct-22 13:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China posted an annualised GDP growth of 3.9% in the third quarter, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter, but a combination of a zero-COVID policy and a property downturn will continue to weigh on the world’s second-biggest economy. US economy continues to slow, recession likely – NABE survey By Stefan Baumgarten 24-Oct-22 22:00 HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US economy continues to slow and is likely already in recession or may soon be in recession, according to findings in the latest business conditions survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) on Monday. INSIGHT: Asia C3 to face headwinds in fourth quarter By Julia Tan 25-Oct-22 10:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian propylene market is facing headwinds as it steps into the fourth quarter as demand looks likely to remain weak until the end of the year on poor derivative margins. China PP lacks post-holiday support as weak demand overshadows high costs By Zhibo Xiao 27-Oct-22 12:34  SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Domestic polypropylene (PP) prices in China rose and then fell after the country’s National Day holiday on 1-7 October as bearish demand outweighed the brief surge in crude values. INSIGHT: A new world for Asia olefins as capacity surges, demand remains uncertain By Amy Yu 28-Oct-22 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asia olefins industry is witnessing a new world of significantly squeezed margins for all producers, with incremental capacity addtions set against the backdrop of weak demand. CDI Economic Summary: Recession odds rise as slowdown takes hold amid Fed tightening By Kevin Swift 27-Oct-22 23:07 CHARLOTTE, North Carolina (ICIS)–Monetary tightening across the world led by the US Federal Reserve, protracted inflation and geopolitical events have raised the odds of recession in many major economies. Asia petrochemicals stay bearish as China keeps zero-COVID policy By Nurluqman Suratman 21-Oct-22 11:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Bearish sentiment prevails across Asia’s petrochemical markets with no immediate end in sight on China’s zero-COVID strategy, which has been weighing on overall industrial activities of the world’s second-biggest economy. South and East Asia LAB quiet while rising feedstock costs squeeze margins By Clive Ong 20-Oct-22 17:02 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The linear alkyl benzene (LAB) market in East and South Asia remains quiet while suppliers talked of squeezed margins from rising feedstock costs. The desire for higher values, however, were countered by the persistently weak demand in the region. India, SE Asia ethanolamines remain under pressure from competitive offers By Clive Ong 20-Oct-22 15:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)—The ethanolamines markets in southeast Asia and India remain under downward pressure from competitive offers and tepid demand. Participants anticipate further weakness in the near term as the Chinese market looks set to remain weak. INSIGHT: Japan economy to find succor in automotive output recovery By Pearl Bantillo 20-Oct-22 12:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan may be able to count on a recovery in car production, which should provide much-needed boosts to related industries, including petrochemicals, to cushion its economic downturn. INSIGHT: European home improvement sector slumps on economic slowdown, post-COVID effects By Nicole Simpson 19-Oct-22 21:33 LONDON (ICIS)–As the threat of recession looms over Europe and consumers look to cut back on unnecessary spending, demand for home improvement and do-it-yourself (DIY) goods has plummeted. Asia oleochemicals market likely flat in Q4 on zero-COVID policy in China By Helen Yan 19-Oct-22 12:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s oleochemicals market is expected to remain flat in the fourth quarter due to the prevailing sluggish demand from China amid its zero-COVID policy, which is expected to remain in place for the rest of this year. INSIGHT: Global demand slump eclipses Asia export benefits from currency falls By Pearl Bantillo 18-Oct-22 13:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s tumbling currencies will not spell strong exports for the region as a combination of surging inflation and high interest rates slows the pace of global economic activities. EPCA ’22: Chemicals supply chains lengthening, security of supply increasingly important – Vopak CEO By Nigel Davis 07-Oct-22 17:40 BERLIN (ICIS)–Chemicals supply chains are becoming necessarily longer as consumers and producers see markets balancing between imports and local production, the CEO at tank storage operator Vopak said this week. China September petrochemical markets up; demand outlook still bleak By Yvonne Shi 11-Oct-22 14:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical markets were mostly higher in September on supply tightness in some products and aided by pre-holiday restocking, but overall demand is not expected to improve by much in the coming months. IMF trims developing Asia growth outlook on China weakness By Nurluqman Suratman 12-Oct-22 12:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has trimmed its economic growth forecast for emerging and developing Asian economies on account of China’s slowdown. Asia BDO market faces lengthening supply, uncertain demandBy Clive Ong 13-Oct-22 13:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The nascent recovery in Asian’s 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market in September now faces the challenge of lengthening supply with demand staying uncertain. Singapore Q4 GDP growth slows to 4.4%, monetary policy tightened By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Oct-22 11:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s central bank on Friday tightened its monetary policy to dampen persistent price pressures which has slowed its economy to a year-on-year growth of 4.4% in the fourth quarter. EPCA ’22: Chemical industry may slow but must manage through cycle, Equate CEO By Nigel Davis 06-Oct-22 17:11 BERLIN (ICIS)–The chemical industry may slow over the next 12 months but it is a question of managing through the cycle, Equate’s CEO Naser Aldousari said on the sidelines of EPCA 2022 on Wednesday. Aldousari remains optimistic for the sector and emphasises its resilience. Asia Q4 petrochemical demand faces headwinds as global economy slows By Felicia Loo 06-Oct-22 14:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Petrochemical demand in Asia will be largely undermined because regional factories face continued weakness in export demand in the fourth quarter. EPCA ’22: COVID-19 pandemic set gender parity back a generation – Dow exec By Tom Brown 05-Oct-22 23:21 BERLIN (ICIS)–The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic set the progress of gender parity back 30 years, Dow’s head of inclusion and diversity said on Wednesday, because of the disproportionate impact it had on women’s participation in the labour market. EPCA ’22: Europe ADA, nylon 6,6 demand may weaken further in October By Marta Fern 05-Oct-22 16:00 LONDON (ICIS)–European adipic acid (ADA) and downstream nylon 6,6 markets face affordability concerns, high costs of production and competition with lower priced imports from Asia. EPCA ’22: European auto output will only recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2025 – analyst By Jonathan Lopez 04-Oct-22 18:21 BERLIN (ICIS)–Production from the European petrochemicals-intensive automotive sector is unlikely to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2025 at the earliest, a chemicals analyst at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) said on Tuesday. Andreas Gocke, global lead for chemicals at BCG, said the war in Ukraine and supply-chain issues have only seen a further deterioration in the outlook for the automotive sector, which was already negative in 2021. EPCA ’22: Weak demand, wider uncertainty shapes Europe acrylate esters outlook By Mathew Jolin-Beech 04-Oct-22 22:00 LONDON (ICIS)–Europe’s acrylate esters markets are set to be gripped by ongoing weak demand and wider macroeconomic uncertainty in Q4 and early 2023. EPCA ’22: PODCAST: Europe petrochemicals face ‘winter of discontent By Will Beacham 04-Oct-22 15:19 BERLIN (ICIS)–Europe’s petrochemical sector faces a ‘winter of discontent’, battered by high energy costs, collapsing downstream demand and increased imports from Asia. In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight editor Nigel Davis, ICIS senior analyst Lorenzo Meazza, and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. The European Petrochemicals Association (EPCA) annual meeting runs on 4-6 October in Berlin. EPCA ‘22: Demand concerns loom over Europe PC market in Q4 By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 03-Oct-22 19:14 LONDON (ICIS)–Pessimism reigns in the European polycarbonate (PC) market moving into the end of 2022 as demand from the key customer sectors is likely to remain tepid due to Europe’s dim macroeconomic outlook. INSIGHT: Trends converging to create Q4 glut in US plastics By Al Greenwood 30-Sep-22 05:21 HOUSTON (ICIS)–North American polymer markets are facing a growing glut because of weakening demand, expanding capacity and rising inventories. Europe economic sentiment dropping as Germany on brink of recession By Morgan Condon 29-Sep-22 23:13 LONDON (ICIS)–European economic sentiment continued falling in September, for both the EU and the eurozone, and the German economy is heading towards a recession, as sentiment is shaped by sustained high energy prices. Lockdowns, property crisis to slow China 2022 GDP growth to 2.8% – World Bank By Nurluqman Suratman 29-Sep-22 13:3 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China, the world’s second-biggest economy, is projected to grow at a much slower pace of 2.8% this year compared with an earlier forecast of 5.0%, according to the World Bank, amid the country’s zero-COVID policy and ongoing property crisis. INSIGHT: India PVC market weathers stormy first half, safeguard investigation begins By Damini Dabholkar 29-Sep-22 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS) –India’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market stabilised slightly in September, after having weathered a storm over the previous 12 months. China’s PE prices rebound, eyes on demand sustainability By Sijia Li 28-Sep-22 12:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s polyethylene (PE) prices have rebounded following continual declines in the past two months, finding support from improved end-user demand during the September-October traditional peak season. INSIGHT: High cost threatens Asia petrochemical output as regional currencies tumble By Pearl Bantillo 27-Sep-22 12:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical production is at risk of shrinking further as imported raw materials get more expensive each day that Asian currencies tumble to new lows. INSIGHT: Russia-Ukraine war, surging inflation continue to dim growth expectations By Tom Brown 27-Sep-22 00:17 LONDON (ICIS)–The outlook for global growth is continuing to darken as the economy loses momentum in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, with fresh economic projections pointing to a substantial deterioration in prospects from 2023 even relative to a few months ago US HB Fuller sees rebound in Asia, slowdown in Europe By Al Greenwood 23-Sep-22 05:43 HOUSON (ICIS)–HB Fuller began to see a rebound in Asian demand during its fiscal third quarter because China is reopening from its COVID-19 lockdowns, the US-based adhesives producer said on Thursday, a trend that other chemical producers have yet to see. INSIGHT: US plastics becomes sixth-largest industry By Melissa Wheeler 22-Sep-22 23:21 HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US plastics industry has moved two spots up to become the sixth-largest industry in the country, according to the Plastics Industry Association (PLASTICS). Asia MEG market under pressure as downstream cuts operation to ease high inventories By Judith Wang 22-Sep-22 18:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) market has been under pressure during the week as downstream polyester sector initiated another round of operation cuts in a bid to relieve inventory pressure. INSIGHT: Widespread demand reduction makes a tough quarter tougher By Nigel Davis 21-Sep-22 23:49 LONDON (ICIS)–It has been a tough third quarter for most upstream producers of chemicals and others as weaker demand and rising costs have combined to hit earnings and shift guidance. US inland truck capacity increases as demand remains firm By Adam Yanelli 21-Sep-22 05:15 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Spot and contract rates for inland truck deliveries have fallen from record-highs as capacity has increased and demand has remained strong, according to panelists on a webinar hosted by supply chain market intelligence provider Freightwaves. INSIGHT: Asia petrochemical market to rebound in September By Amy Yu 15-Sep-22 18:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)– Some Asia petrochemical prices rebounded in early September after the decrease in August. ANALYSIS AND RESOURCES

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–au Jibun Bank’s flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for Japan rose to 48.6 in March from 47.7 in February as output and new orders contracted at a slower pace, the Japanese bank said on Friday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing economy, while a lower number denotes contraction. “Both output and new orders were scaled back further in the latest survey period, although the respective rates of reduction were the softest for five months,” au Jibun Bank said in a statement. Moreover, there was some evidence of easing cost pressures as seen by the rate of input price inflation dipping to the lowest since August 2021, it said. Japanese manufacturers were also buoyed by improving supply chains with average lead times for inputs extending to the lowest extent for 29 months, the bank said. “Concurrently, business sentiment strengthened at the end of the first quarter to reach the strongest since last October,” it added.