Analytics

Price Forecast

What are the Price Forecasts?

The price forecasts are concise monthly reports that include predicted prices, margins, capacity, supply and demand over 18 months of a chemicals commodity, created by carefully assessing market drivers and feedstock prices.

Forecasts are developed by our independent, global network of market experts and analysts across the value chain.

Available for a range of commodities, a forecast covers everything you need to know to understand where the market is heading. They support you when you need to make decisions, fast.

How do I use the Price Forecast?

You can learn everything you need to know about Price Forecasts with this video

How often are the Price Forecasts updated?

The price forecasts are updated monthly, however, when major unplanned market changes occur, our analysts will re-assess and deliver forecast updates through our dynamic digital platform showing the in-time adjustments to their plans.

Check individual commodities Outlook section for the following month’s official publication date.

Do I have access to Price Forecasts?

They are readily accessible through ICIS.com to customers who have opted for an ICIS Analytics subscription package. 

How do I access Price Forecasts?

Access the latest forecast updates and market drivers via the dynamic and interactive Commodity Page.

Do I have access to feedstock forecasts and data?

Feedstock forecasts are not accessible unless subscribing to the feedstock commodity forecasts.

How many years of price history can I add into the forecast graphs?

You can plot up to 5 years of historical data on price forecast graphs.

What factors do you include in the methodology?

ICIS Price forecast models are fully integrated from crude oil, feedstocks to downstream commodities, mapping the strong interconnections across chemical chains.

Where can I find the Price Forecast methodology?

Each price forecast commodity has a specific methodology document. The methodology button can be accessed from the price forecast chart and is also accessible via the ICIS compliance page.

Are the Price Forecasts available on the ICIS App?

The forecasts are not currently available on the native ICIS App on Android / iOS, but we will be exploring this further in future. ICIS.com is optimised for access through popular mobile device browsers, making the forecasts readily accessible.

Margins

What are the latest improvements to the modelling?

We’re amending our model on 3 October 2022, including all historical data so that the market trends and drivers remain clear.

The most significant changes include upgrading the way that we calculate energy costs for our plants to take account of rising gas prices, so that our plants costs are more reflective of the change in the industry.

  • Fuel, fuel gas, natural gas and hydrogen pricing has been revised to better reflect market dynamics, including the impact of elevated natural gas prices
  • More real time and accurate natural gas prices have been incorporated into our models
  • Fuel gas and hydrogen prices based on energy equivalence of fuel oil have now been updated to consider natural gas prices where appropriate

Changes to historical margins from energy costs will now reflect the stark increase in these costs around the world in the last year, although there will be less impact on historical data further back.

We’re also updating some of our modelling yields based on improved industry information; and changing some of our pricing series to reflect industry practice more closely and ensure consistency with other modelling across ICIS.

Finally, we are amending our NE Asian PET margin processes and discontinuing India PET fibre-grade margins, both based on pricing availability.

The impact of pricing changes is minimal, particularly when compared with energy cost increases.

The trends reflected from feedstocks and product values remain consistent. There is no change to the methodology for how variable margins are calculated.

The full history can be downloaded from the margins analytics pages ahead of 3 October 2022 for comparison – see here for how to do this.

Full pricing series changes:

Commodity Feedstock/ Main Product Spot/ Contract Region Previous price series used New price series
Ethylene Main Product Spot Europe Ethylene Spot CIF NWE 0-6 Weeks
Series ID: 4001005
Ethylene Pipeline Spot FD NWE 0-6 Weeks
Series ID: 4001023
PVC Main Product Spot Europe PVC Spot FOB NWE Export 4-6 Weeks
Series ID: 4118018
PVC Spot FD EU 4-6 Weeks
Series ID: 4018038
Methanol Main Product/Feedstock Spot NE Asia Methanol Spot CFR China All Origins 2-9 Weeks
Series ID: 4009020
Methanol Spot CFR China Specific Origins 2-9 Weeks
Series ID: 8602905
Butane Feedstock Spot US Gulf 75/25 Normal/Iso Butane Mix Spot Close FOB Mt Belvieu In Store 10-30 Days
Series ID: 3003017
N-Butane Spot Close FOB Mt Belvieu In Store 10-30 Days
Series ID: 3003007
Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) Main product Spot NE Asia Polyethylene Terephthlate (PET) Fibre Grade Asia NE Spot CFR 2-6 Weeks USD Week (reported in US$)

Series ID: 4060010

Polyethylene Terephthlate (PET) Fibre Grade Asia NE Spot FOB 2-6 Weeks USD Week (reported in US$)

Series ID: 4060012

How far back does your variable margins data go?

Data is available to view and download from January 2014 onwards.

How can I change the currency and unit?

You can currently view data in the Margins charts as US dollars or Euros per tonne – you can also select and download data in ‘US cents per pound’  – simply change the default currency and units selection as needed.

How can I see quarterly margin performance using the tools?

Yes! Within the ‘chart filters’ and ‘download data’ options, you can choose weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly frequency to view or download the average for the selected period.

How far back does your variable margins data go?

Data is available to view and download from January 2014 onwards.

How can I see margins generated using a different feedstock?

To view margins generated using a different feedstock, select the feedstock/process you are interested in using the Chart Filters then click Apply Filter. By default, the charts show data for the feedstock/process type in the selected region that produces the most.

Where can I find out what the charts mean?

On each chart, you will find an Info button. Click on this to find out what is represented on the chart.

Where can I find the margin analytics methodology used by ICIS?

Access the methodology via the link in the Key Developments tab (on the right at the top of the page).

You can also access the methodology through the ICIS compliance and methodology site by clicking here

How can I download margin data?

You can download data from an individual chart by selecting the ‘download’ button in the top righthand corner. You can download data, or the chart itself in a .pdf, .jpg, .png or .svg format.

You can also download all page data from the download function at the bottom of the page, according to the criteria set, or data from the individual charts within the widgets.

How can I download all the available margin data each week?

Use the ‘Generate Link’ feature to avoid having to repeat your queries every time you want to update margins data in an excel file.

  1. Select the criteria for the data you want to download in the Download Data filter dropdown menu.
    If you want to continue to refresh the data in your Excel file offline beyond the date automatically selected in the ‘To’ field, make sure that you select a ‘To’ date well into the future.
  2. Click ‘Generate Link’
  3. Copy the link for your selected data
  4. Open an Excel workbook and select the ‘Data’ tab.
  5. Select ‘New Query’
  6. Click ‘Open As’ and select ‘CSV document’. A data preview will load.
  7. The page will open.
  8. Select ‘Close & Load’. Your data will load.
  9. Save your Excel file, and integrate the data into your files as needed.
  10. To download data for more than one margin into the same workbook, return to the website and select the new filter criteria in the data download function.Generate the link and then copy the link.

    Open the same Excel file and add a ‘New Query’ following the instructions above. Your data will load in a different sheet.

     To update your Excel sheet in the following week:

     If you have used a query with a date in the future, just open your excel file, select the ‘Data’ tab, and click ‘Refresh All’.

Open an excel workbook and select the ‘Data’ tab.

Select ‘New Query’

Select ‘From Other Sources’ and then ‘From Web’. Paste in link and click ‘OK’.

*The page below will open.

Click ‘Open As’ and select ‘CSV document’. A data preview will load.

Select ‘Close & Load’. Your data will load.

Can I access Margin Analytics through my mobile device?

Yes – simply visit the website as normal using your mobile browser – the website is responsive and will resize when viewing on a mobile device.

Can I access margins data via the Excel Plug-In?

No. However, you can use the ‘Generate Link’ function in the ‘download data’ section to set up refreshable queries in an Excel file

How can I download all the available margin data each week?

Live Disruptions Tracker

How do I access the Live Supply Disruptions Tracker? 

Customers can access the Live Supply Disruptions Tracker here or find it via the Analytics channel.

How do I use the Live Disruptions Tracker – Supply

You can learn everything you need to know about the Live Disruptions Tracker (Supply) with this video

How do I use the Live Disruptions Tracker (Impact)

You can learn everything you need to know about the Live Disruptions Tracker (Impact) with this video

How do I report a shutdown?

You can report a shutdown using this link Report a Shutdown to ICIS

Plant Cost Evaluator

What is the Plant Cost Evaluator?

The Plant Cost Evaluator visualises the production costs of individual plants and their relationship to the regional price floor/ceiling; arming you with critical data to act more decisively when  buying, selling, or negotiating.

How regularly is the Plant Cost Evaluator updated?

Weekly through  ICIS’s global network of market experts.

Which commodities are available?

Caustic Soda
Ethylene
Methanol
Monoethylene Glycol
Paraxylene
Polyethylene
Polypropylene
Polyvinyl Chloride
Propylene
Styrene

Which regions are available?

Plant Cost Evaluator is available for EMEA, APAC and Americas

EMEA covers: Europe, Middle East, Africa, Former USSR
APAC covers: NE Asia, S&SE Asia
Americas covers: North America, South & Central America

You can highlight plants in specific countries, or sites on the cost curve.

Is historical cost curve data and/or historical price window data available?

Historical data for cost curves is available back to 2016.

A time series of the price window is not currently available.

How can I download the plant cost evaluator data?

You can download the raw data as a CSV file.

The cost curve chart is downloadable as a PNG file.

How does Plant Cost Evaluator take volatility in prices into account?

Volatility is a factor when unexpected events happen in the market, so Plant Cost Evaluator reflects those changes. It uses spot prices as the basis of its short-term cost calculations, which are typically more responsive than contract prices to changing markets and more closely reflect the absolute price level of deals.

 

When is the pricing analysis available?

Pricing analysis  is available when there is a reported I.C.I.S price against which to compare. Therefore, in regions where there is no I.C.I.S reported price, there is no floor and ceiling.

These are:
Ethylene & Propylene: Middle East, Former USSR, Africa, South & Central America
HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE and PP: Africa
PE: No pricing windows because this is an aggregate of HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE

How do I get access to Plant Cost Evaluator?

Plant Cost Evaluator is an add-on to ICIS Insight or I.C.I.S Analyse