OUTLOOK ’14: Shipping markets showing signs of recovery
Sarah Trinder
23-Dec-2013
By Sarah Trinder and Lane
Kelley
LONDON (ICIS)–Although the global
shipping markets have been sluggish during parts of 2013,
some analysts say that this year has in fact seen an
improvement in freight rates.
This is expected to continue in 2014, with
RS Platou, a ship and offshore brokerage and investment bank
company, of the opinion that the chemical tanker market
remains in a steady, cyclical recovery.
“2013 has turned out to be a much better
year for chemical tankers. At +13% year on year, TCE [time
charter equivalent] rates are looking to average at the
highest level since 2009,” brokerage company RS Platou
said.
“However, rates are still a far cry from
the peak levels seen during 2005-2007,” it added.
“Based on our supply-demand forecasts, we
do not expect rates to reach the levels seen during 2005-2007
any time soon but rather improve at a steady pace of 6-7% per
year,” it said.
The outlook for chemical shipping in the
Americas in 2014 in particular, appears more optimistic than
it has been in years, largely because of what brokers and
shipowners say are unmistakable signs of a turnaround in
progress.
US-based broker Netco mentioned a few of
the signs in one of its last monthly reports for 2013, noting
that nearly all freight rates in the western hemisphere’s
major trade lanes were higher than six months previously and
that spot tonnage was getting scarce.
Netco said the strength of the year-end
rally that lasted at least four months posed the question of
whether it was the beginning of a more lasting trend or just
a seasonal spike.
Another US broker said the year-end rally
put shipowners in a generally hopeful mood about the new
year.
“They think a lot of trade lanes are going
to improve, but they say it’s going to be especially a
stronger market to the Far East,” he
said.
Brokers say the US-Asia route has been the main driver behind
improvement in the seaborne chemical market this year, with
higher vessel demand because of increased Chinese imports
from the US.
RS Platou said one shipowner maintained
there were higher volumes on return voyages from Asia to the
US and Europe.
Some shipping sources say the problem that
has plagued the transport of waterborne chemicals for years –
of too many ships chasing too few cargoes – will be swallowed
up by a tidal wave of US exports as the shale gas revolution
converges on a shrinking chemical vessel fleet.
Not everyone agrees. RS Platou called the
US shale gas advantage “a slight positive but no game
changer.” The broker said the driving force for chemical
tanker demand remains the global economy, higher consumer
demand and industrial production.
Furthermore, some European shipping
sources believe shale gas has contributed to slower activity
along the transatlantic westbound route for the foreseeable
future.
“The Americans are producing too much from shale
gas – Europe has nothing to sell them any more,” one ship
operator said.
With the economic climate in the eurozone still experiencing difficulty in some areas, shipping activity is expected to remain at low levels.
“The European economy is still languishing so it should not be a surprise that market activity is slow. While GDP growth is expected to improve somewhat in 2014, the chemical sector needs a jump start before a meaningful recovery can take place in this trade lane,” according to SPI Marine, an independent service provider.
“Everybody is optimistic about next year – I don’t see a big change until 2015-2016. I think it will take more than 12 months for [European] consumption to improve,” one broker said.
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