Cross-border flows: Supply issues pull power imports into Western Europe

North-western Europe looks likely to absorb greater volumes of electricity in the middle of spring with forecasts of cooler temperatures ahead while poor plant availability in Belgium remains an issue. Forecasts from meteorologist WSI indicate “below-normal temperatures in the UK and western Europe for the May-July period” following changing weather patterns in April. Meanwhile weak nuclear output in Belgium following maintenance issues dating back to early 2014 has been a source of additional pressure.

Further north, Nordic supply margins look strong for Q2 with 58TWh of potential hydro generation stored as snow in the region at the end of Q1, up 8TWh on last year’s levels according to data from Norwegian grid operator Statnett. This is weighing on Nordic forward prices and will boost exports to Germany.

France leads net exporters’ revival

European cross-border flows in March were influenced by increased exporting potential among the region’s greatest net exporters, particularly France, with the largest monthly increases in volumes localised in northwest Europe. France was a net exporter to all of its neighbours in March – the first time this has occurred this year.

Both France and Germany revealed monthly falls in power prices amid stronger supply margins. A combination of improving plant availability, strong renewable generation and milder temperatures contributed to greater net exports from the two countries.

As with the previous month France recorded the more pronounced monthly change with average hourly net flows out of the country rising 33% to 5.2GW/hour. Day-ahead prices averaged €46.67/MWh in March, a monthly fall of 9% with some mild weather softening demand while nuclear availability was stronger year on year. However downside was limited by low hydro availability.

France reverted to exporting power to Spain at 0.1GW/hour from importing 0.6GW/hour in February. Cooler temperatures and weak hydro generation in Spain encouraged the overall switch month on month although strong wind generation ensured that France frequently imported Spanish power through the Peak hours.

The increase in German net exports was less marked, up 1% month-on-month to 7.2GW/hours. Warmer temperatures helped to weaken demand while strong wind outturn and high solar generation, particularly at the end of the month, also contributed to the uptick.

Belgian supply squeeze

North-western Europe largely pulled in greater volumes of power in March with the change partially triggered by a supply squeeze in Belgium

A large proportion of generation was unavailable in Belgium due to nuclear reactor maintenance, while cool temperatures lifted consumption. This combination increased the market’s reliance on imports. The pattern is likely to persist in coming months with 2GW of nuclear capacity not doe to be reconnected to the Belgian power grid until 1 July pending safety reviews.

France switched to exporting power to Belgium at 0.7GW/hour in March from importing at 0.1GW/hour in February. Belgium absorbed power from Germany via the Netherlands – exports recorded a monthly jump of 15% to 3.1GW/hour, one of the more notable changes along the German border.

UK imports also inched upwards on the back of France’s stronger plant availability. UK demand could have been higher but the 2GW IFA interconnector linking the two countries was reduced by 50% because of maintenance work between 23 March and 2 April.

Southern demand capped

There was little change month on month in the direction of power across most of the remaining European borders in March with most flows generally drifting south. The exchange of power lessened between most countries was largely a result of milder temperatures. This trend should continue into May with temperatures in southern Europe predicted to be above seasonal norms.

Flows of power to Italy, one of Europe’s largest net importers, were also affected by maintenance on the interconnectors linking the country to France and Switzerland in March. Flows from France were reduced to zero for planned maintenance during all weekends during the month. The combination of mild temperatures and restrictions on imports put Italian net imports to 5.6GW/hour in March, a monthly fall of 13%. Further interconnector restrictions in April have also affected Italy’s importing potential. Christopher Rene