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We offer the following regional Jet kerosene coverage to keep you informed of factors and developments affecting prices in the Global Jet kerosene marketplace.
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Insight and analysis of factors driving prices.
Updated to Q1 2017
At the start of first quarter of 2017, the market in Asia remained well supplied with jet-kerosene, which was reflected in the contango structure of the forward market. Increased Chinese exports of jet-kerosene have weighed on the market. Cold winter weather in Japan and South Korea has buoyed demand for heating kerosene. Unplanned refinery outages and upcoming refinery maintenance in the second quarter could serve to tighten supply. In Europe, there is a steep contango in the ICE gasoil futures market at present and this is encouraging the storage of jet kerosene. An increase in ARA stocks has already been noted, with cargoes said to be coming in from South Korea. The barge market has been illiquid amid low water levels on the Rhine river. Water levels are expected to increase slightly in the coming weeks and it remains to be seen whether this will boost activity in the barge market. US jet fuel prices increased by about 57% in 2016, mostly following the recovery in crude oil over the course of the year. Prices will likely continue to follow crude oil in the first quarter, when demand is normally low. Exports should remain strong, maintaining healthy refiner crack spreads, which are up by 25-33% year on year.
Updated to Q3 2017
Jet kerosene stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region rose by 88,000 tonnes to 731,000 tonnes in the week to Wednesday 12 July, according to PJK International. Stock levels declined further in July-August, before picking up to 603,000 tonnes in the week ending on 30 September. The European jet markets were supplied by intermittent imports from South Korea and occasionally from the Middle East. Supply logistics was negatively impacted by a drop in Rhine water levels from levels seen in June.
The ICE gasoil futures market stayed in weak contango for most of the third quarter, shifting to backwardation only occasionally, and encouraging traders to purchase product for storage. Summer was peak demand season for jet fuel as people travelled on holiday. The spot market was fairly illiquid during July and August, but only because airlines had met their product requirements well in advance. In addition, Shell was active in the jet open market window following an outage at its Pernis refinery in the Netherlands, purchasing product and thereby pushing up jet differentials.
Updated to Q3 2017
Asian jet-kerosene prices rallied during the third quarter buoyed by gains in crude oil and gasoil during the period. In late September, Asian jet prices peaked above $70/bbl for the first time since July 2015. Gasoil and jet values were supported by refinery shutdowns in India which markedly reduced exports. The Asian market was well supplied with jet-kerosene through most of the third quarter. Where possible refiners reacted by cutting jet production and shipping cargoes from northeast Asia to southeast Asia where market conditions were more favourable. Chinese demand was increasingly covered by domestic production. Open arbitrage windows and resulted increased demand reduced supply towards the end of the quarter.
Peak summer air travel in the northern hemisphere lifted demand as did import requirements from the US following disruption to US Gulf refining capacity following Hurricane Harvey. Arbitrage windows opened up to Europe and the US west coast later in the third quarter which removed surplus supply and helped tighten the market in Asia. Refining margins also improved during the quarter with the crack spread between Dubai crude and physical jet-kerosene rising above $15/bbl for the first time since November 2015. The improved market condition were reflected in the forward curve moving into backwardation.
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ICIS price assessments are based on information gathered from a wide cross-section of the market, comprising consumers, producers, traders and distributors from more than 250 reporters world-wide. Confirmed deals, verified by both buyer and seller, provide the foundation of our price assessments.
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