SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical shipments rose by 26.5% year on year in April to Singapore dollar (S$) 1.34 billion, reversing the 3.6% decline in the previous month, official data showed on Friday. Overall exports of chemicals and chemical products in April fell by 34.5% year on year to S$3.59 billion, extending the 37% contraction in March, Enterprise Singapore said in a statement. The country’s overall non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell by 9.3% year on year to S$13.9 billion, extending the 20.8% decline in the preceding month. Non-electronic NODX – which includes chemicals and pharmaceuticals – fell by 12.3% year on year to $10.9 billion in April following the 23.2% contraction in March. NODX shipments to the US and EU fell sharply in April, while exports to China rose last month. Singapore is a major manufacturer and exporter of petrochemicals in southeast Asia. Its petrochemicals hub Jurong Island houses more than 100 global chemical firms, including energy majors ExxonMobil and Shell. The drop in the country’s NODX in April mirrors weaker manufacturing activity seen during the month. The country’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped to 50.5 in April from 50.7 in March, marking the eighth consecutive month that the reading has remained above the 50 mark, according to data from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM). A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing economy, while a lower number denotes contraction. In a separate survey of private manufacturers, Singapore’s April PMI eased to 52.6 from 55.7 in March, financial information and services provider S&P Global said on 6 May. For the whole of 2024, Singapore’s economy is expected to expand by 1.0-3.0%, compared with actual GDP growth of 1.1% growth in 2023, the ministry said. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Blood bags, syringes, disposable hospital sheets, gowns and medicine packaging. Modern-day medicine, which has greatly extended the quantity and quality of our lives, would be impossible without the plastics industry. Computers, smartphones, washing machines, refrigerators and automobiles cannot be manufactured without plastics and chemicals. Think of women in the developing world who still have to wash clothes by hand (this is, sadly, how some patriarchal societies work). Imagine the time and energy they would save if their families can afford their first washing machine, enabling girls and women to spend more time at school and freeing them up to attend college. The absence of decent roads in developing countries doesn’t matter a jot because, since the invention of the smartphone, buying and selling goods and services, issuing microfinance and keeping accounts up to date can be done on the go. The scale of future demand for nine of the world’s biggest synthetic polymers is illustrated by the chart in today’s post. We forecast that global demand for the resins will this year total 299 million tonnes, up from just 79 million tonnes in 1992 which I believe was the start of the Petrochemicals Supercycle. By 2024, we predict that demand will reach 515 million tonnes – a 72% increase. The question on the exam paper is how we meet this demand in as sustainable a fashion as possible. This is going to require a new industrial revolution. Jim Fitterling, CEO of Dow Chemical, provided the best summary I have seen of the challenges that lie ahead for the chemicals industry. This was in a speech he gave in New York on 8 May. He highlighted the strain on electricity supply resulting from the growth in artificial intelligence, making it harder for the chemicals industry to secure the renewable electricity it needs to decarbonise. While it was “almost fashionable” to blame producers for plastics waste, around 3bn people around the world lacked access to basic waste management. About 95% of leakage occurs in emerging markets with underdeveloped waste management systems, he said. Demand for recycled plastics outstrips supply and was growing, but the ecosystem to collect, sort and efficiently recycle plastics waste was not keeping up, he added. Government support for these efforts would be critical – policies that preserved the many benefits of plastics while also helping eliminating waste, the CEO said. Through its history, the chemical industry had a formidable record of achievement in overcoming challenges and can do it again in making the energy transition a reality and ending plastics pollution, said the Dow CEO. Key to this was harnessing talent – not just chemical talent, but a new generation of workers who understood robotics, AI, machine learning and analytics, he said. Hear, hear! Let’s get on the with this new industrial revolution. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Dow’s operations in Terneuzen, the Netherlands, and Tarragona, Spain, have attractive costs for a region that is struggling to remain competitive against other parts of the world with cheaper energy, the CEO said on Thursday. Dow has crackers at both sites, and they can use imported liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as feedstock to produce ethylene. The imports give the crackers a cost advantage. “Terneuzen and Tarragona are in great cost positions, and both of those countries, the Netherlands and Spain, have good energy policies,” said Dow CEO Jim Fitterling. He made his comments during an investor day presentation. “Going forward, I feel good about how they are going to wind up, and we have good plans there,” he said. “We have good line of site to keep cost competitiveness.” The company mentioned cracking more LPG at Terneuzen to lower its costs. Exports of LPG should increase from the US in the next couple of years as midstream companies complete terminal expansions. The US Gulf Coast is running out of export capacity to handle growing amounts of propane being produced in the country. EUROPE LACKS COST POSITION TO EXPORTOther companies are selling European businesses or shutting down plants because of excess global capacity and high costs. Fitterling sees no signs that Europe is considering any policies that could address high energy costs. “Europe is focused more on the stick, on carbon emissions reductions,” he said. “They are not focused at all on energy policy to drive down energy costs. Energy costs are going to continue to rise.” Dow’s cost position does allow it to serve the domestic market, but it is not in Europe to export, Fitterling said. “Europe doesn’t have the cost position any more to export.” Dow will continue find ways to improve its cost position at its European operations, he said. But the company’s growth investments will be in low-cost regions and in high value projects.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Six years after the disaster at Braskem’s rock salt mines in Brazil’s state of Alagoas, the polymers major could continue facing legal cases which could dent its cash flow, according to analysts at US credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch downgraded the company’s credit rating in December 2023 and placed it on what it called ‘Negative Watch’. This week, following a very damning report issued by Brazil’s Senate following a public enquiry into the Alagoas disaster, the agency’s analysts said that Braskem is likely to face increase costs related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) challenges. That would add, they said, to the expected poor spreads for global petrochemicals in general, which would be here to stay for at least the remaining of 2024. “Increased ESG risks and potential new claims associated with the geological event in Alagoas could worsen the company’s credit profile,” said Marcelo Pappiani, a Fitch analyst covering Braskem. Fitch said Braskem has since 2019 disbursed approximately Brazilian reais (R) 10.0 billion ($2.0 billion) on relocations, compensation, the closure and monitoring of salt cavities, and environment and other technical matters. A spokesperson for Braskem said to ICIS on Thursday the company would continue collaborating with the authorities in their enquiries about the Alagoas disaster but did not comment on the specifics of the Senate’s report. “Braskem reiterates it was always willing to collaborate with the public enquiry, promptly collaborating providing all the information and measures requested,” said the spokesperson. “The company remains available to collaborate with the authorities, as it has always been.” NEVER-ENDING DISASTERLate on Wednesday, the Brazilian Senate published the final report after its public enquiry into the Alagoas disaster in 2018 which caused thousands to be displaced from their homes in Maceio, the capital’s state. The report is to be voted by the Senate’s plenary on 22 May. Braskem’s rock salt mining caused the displacement of the subsoil; the company used the rock salt for production of caustic soda and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), among others. The 765-page report was highly damning for Braskem, with vice president Marcelo Cerqueira and other seven people accused of environmental crimes as the company’s activities resulted in the geological event. Nearly 15,000 households had to be relocated, and some of Maceio’s neighborhoods evacuated in 2018 remain ghost areas to this day. The report was not only damning for Braskem but also for Brazil’s authorities, especially the National Mining Agency (ANM) as well as the Ministry of Mines and Energy for failing to implement the controls which are required. THE GROUND KEEPS MOVINGTo make matters worse for Braskem, just last December there were further movements in the subsoil which made residents and authorities fear another geological event, a prospect which in the end did not materialize. Those recent events, as well as this week’s report, keep bringing back the Alagoas disaster into the spotlight and seem set to keep haunting the company for several quarters to come, said the Fitch analysts. “We believe the environmental and ecological impacts of the salt mine collapse in the context of sinking land in Alagoas could damage Braskem’s financial position … Uncertainty about current and upcoming lawsuits is high, with negative outcomes potentially pressuring cash flow and adversely impacting the company’s financial results,” they said. “The company could also face social impacts from new claims and reparation costs to victims and neighboring communities, in addition to the 14,446 families relocated to other areas.” The Alagoas liabilities are casting such a long shadow for Braskem that Abu Dhabi’s energy major ADNOC, who seemed the strongest candidate to acquire Novonor’s controlling stake in Braskem, walked away earlier in May, reportedly on the back of those liabilities. “We believe the prospect of Novonor selling its stake in Braskem hit an impasse after the December 2023 salt mine collapse, with ongoing uncertainty regarding the repercussions of the geological event,” said Fitch. Neither the Senate report nor Fitch’s credit rating warning seemed to dent investors’ interest on Braskem’s stock on Thursday though, with shares trading nearly 1.45% higher on the Sao Paulo stock exchange Bovespa by midday local time. Following ADNOC’s announcement it was throwing the towel on Braskem, Braskem’s shares opened the next trading session down more than 14%.

LONDON (ICIS)–ICIS hydrogen editor Jake Stones meets with Hydrogen Europe CEO Jorgo Chatzimarkakis to discuss some of the largest developments to befall the EU hydrogen market this year, namely the progression of the Net Zero Industry Act, the new terms and conditions for the second EU Hydrogen Bank auction, and lastly the results of the pilot auction were published to the market, indicating the first projects to be granted a fixed subsidy via the bank’s mechanism. Over the episode Chatzimarkakis weighs in on key considerations around these topics, such as what the budget might be for the second auction, how the criteria for the new auction has changed compared to the first, and the importance of the pilot auction’s results are for the wider European hydrogen economy.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ample supply of propylene in Asia and new polypropylene (PP) capacities in China are expected to weigh on discussions in southeast Asia over the coming months. Asia C3 to lengthen after PDH restarts in China, SE Asia volumes China PP exports to weigh on SE Asia discussions Asia PP prices to come under pressure in June-July In this podcast, ICIS editors Julia Tan, Jackie Wong and Lucy Shuai discuss current trends in Asia’s propylene and PP markets, and what we can expect going forward. Visit us at Booth 13 at the Grand Ballroom Foyer at the Grand InterContinental Seoul Parnas! Book a meeting with ICIS here.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s economy shrank by 2.0% on an annualized basis in January-March 2024 as domestic consumption and capital spending weakened. Weak yen fuels inflation, hurts consumer spending Core inflation slows but remains above 2% target Japan central bank faces tough challenge of balancing growth and inflation The first-quarter reading reverses the 0.4% year-on-year growth in October-December 2023. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Q1 GDP posted a 0.5% contraction, according to preliminary data released by Japan’s Cabinet Office on Thursday. Private consumption, which makes up more than half of Japan’s economic growth, fell by 0.7% in the first three months of 2024, marking the fourth straight quarter of decline and extending the 0.4% decline in the last three months of last year. Capital spending – a crucial component of private demand – decreased by 0.8% in the first quarter, reversing the 1.8% expansion in the fourth quarter. Net exports of goods and services fell by 0.3% in the first quarter. The sharp decline of the Japanese yen (Y) to levels not seen since 1990 has raised concerns about increasing living costs and depressed consumer spending. At 04:12 GMT, the yen was trading at around Y154 to the US dollar, strengthening from the recent record low of around Y159 in late April. In March to April, the yen had continued to weaken despite the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision to hike interest rates in March for the first time in 17 years, ending eight years of negative rates. The central bank is expected to proceed cautiously in tightening monetary policy due to the fragile state of the economy. Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food items but includes energy items, rose by 2.6% year on year, data from the BoJ showed on 14 May. The number represented a deceleration from February’s 2.8% print but remained well above the central bank’s 2% target. “The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be in the range of 2.5-3.0% for fiscal 2024 [year ending 31 March 2025] and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026,” Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) said in a report on 15 May. Meanwhile, underlying consumer inflation, which excludes temporary fluctuations, is expected to increase gradually and then be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%, it said. “If the BOJ also expects GDP to recover in 2Q24, then the BoJ’s focus should remain on high inflation and the JPY [Japanese yen] as a major contributor to high inflation,” Dutch banking and financial information services provider ING said in a note on Thursday. “April inflation is expected to ease quite sharply due to a high base last year, but pipeline inflation indicates upward inflationary pressures building for the coming months,” it said. “We believe that the BoJ is ready to act in July, as it confirms that strong wage growth is boosting household spending,” it added. Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies growing moderately, as well as financial conditions being accommodative, the finance ministry said in its 15 May report. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell sharply in May as higher mortgage rates “hammer” confidence, the National Association of Home Builders said on Wednesday. Mortgage rates averaged above 7% for the past four weeks as a lack of progress on reducing inflation pushed long-term interest rates higher, NAHB said. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell by six points from April to 45 in May – its first decline since November 2023. HMI readings below the 50 neutral mark indicate that builders are pessimistic, readings above 50 that they are optimistic. The high mortgage rates have pushed many potential buyers back to the sidelines and the market has slowed, NAHB said. Another worry are new code rules that require the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Department of Agriculture to insure mortgages for new single-family homes only if they are built to the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code. This would further increase the cost of construction in a market “that sorely needs more inventory for first-time and first-generation buyers”, said NAHB chairman Carl Harris. NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz added: “The last leg in the inflation fight is to reduce shelter inflation, and this can only occur if builders are able to construct more attainable, affordable housing.” The housing market is a key consumer of chemicals, driving demand for a wide variety of chemicals, resins and derivative products, such as plastic pipe, insulation, paints and coatings, adhesives and synthetic fibers, among many others. Please also visit the ICIS construction topic page and Macroeconomics: Impact on Chemicals. Thumbnail photo source: NAHB

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian oxo-alcohols buyers maintained a wait and watch approach, amid the possibility of added plant capacities in China weighing on market sentiment. The acrylonitrile (ACN) market continues to see limited spot demand in the northeast Asia market. Even as downstream acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) has seen higher production rates recently, ACN producers were unlikely to increase operating rates. For the acrylates downstream, butyl-A market in Asia continues to take direction from Chinese domestic prices. With India’s Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) requirements preventing Chinese origin imports, cargoes from China were flowing into SE Asia and NE Asia. In this podcast, ICIS editors Julia Tan and Corey Chew discuss trends in the Asia propylene and derivatives markets. Visit ICIS during APIC ’24 on 30-31 May at Booth 13 in the Grand Ballroom Foyer in the Grand InterContinental Seoul Parnas. Book a meeting with ICIS here.