HOUSTON (ICIS)–The biggest plastics trade show in the Western Hemisphere returned last week after a six-year hiatus. Delegates returned to consider an industry that is increasingly being shaped by government policy which is favoring sustainability and electric vehicles (EVs) while restricting the use of some classes of chemicals that are used in processing aids. SUSTAINABLE CONTENTThe regulatory outlook is influencing companies’ sustainability goals, and that is influencing which plastics they buy and which ones are made by producers. Sustainability was the most prominent theme at the show. The title of the keynote address given by BASF Corp CEO Mike Heinz was “Our Plastics Journey: The Road to Shaping a Sustainable Future”. Other examples of sustainability at the show include the following: Executives from SABIC and NOVA Chemicals talked at lengths about what their companies are doing to incorporate more recycled content into their materials. Renewable plastics producers CJ CheilJedang and Danimer Scientific had booths showcasing their grades of polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA), a renewable polyester. GREENMANTRA showcased its chemical recycling technology, which breaks down plastics to produce waxes, which are then then uses to make additives that make it easier to incorporate waste plastic into finished products. If the exhibitor booths and keynote address weren’t enough to drive home the prominence of sustainability, delegates only had to consider the recent round of talks for the UN plastic waste treaty. It was held just days before NPE. While the plastics industry is advocating curbs on pollution, several groups at the talks were pushing for curbs on production. US lawmakers have repeatedly introduced bills that would impose moratoria on new plants. A small number of US states are adopting mandates that require minimum amounts of recycled content. A few states are also adopting policies calling for extended producer responsibility (EPR). The outlook of regulations is causing consumer goods producers and other plastic consumers to start seeking out sustainable materials now, so they have time to rearrange their supply chains and so prepare for the anticipated regulations. POLICIES PROMOTING EVS, LIGHTWEIGHTINGGovernment support should rekindle sales of EV and pull them out of what could be a temporary lull, according to BASF. The world will need more EVs if it wants to achieve its carbon-cutting goals. In the US, the federal government and individual states are adopting and proposing policies that will promote EV adoption. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduced a new tailpipe rule that will require the US light vehicle fleet to emit progressively smaller amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2). The EPA is expected to decide if California can adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II), which would phase out the sale of ICE-based vehicles by 2035. If the EPA grants California’s request, that would trigger similar programs in several other states. The US Department of Transportation (DOT) is proposing stricter efficiency standards under its Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program. EVs have material challenges that are different from automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs), and these are increasing demand for new grades of plastics. Some plastics will need to tolerate higher voltage environments, while others will need good thermal management properties. BASF and other companies at NPE showcased how several of their materials were meeting these challenges. At the same time, auto companies will want materials that will lighten their vehicles so they can travel farther on a battery charge. ICE automakers also want to lighten their vehicles, in part to comply with stricter emission requirements. Longer term, Dow highlighted the revolutionary ramifications that autonomous vehicles will have on the plastic industry. Such vehicles are driven almost entirely by machines, which should greatly reduce crashes and accidents. Dow said automakers could replace nearly all steel and aluminum paneling used in automobiles with plastic alternatives. SUBSTANCES OF CONCERNDow and Clariant highlighted the ramifications of substances of concern, so called because regulators are concerned about their effects on safety. The latest such substance include per- and poly fluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS), which are used in many polymer processing aids (PPAs). Clariant has recently introduced a hydrocarbon-based processing aid. Longer term are the possible ramifications of the prioritization process that the EPA has started on five chemicals. The regulator would like to start the prioritization process on five additional chemicals each year. The prioritization process is the first step in determining whether a chemical poses an unreasonable risk. If the EPA makes such a finding, then it will proceed with the risk management phase, in which it will propose ways to manage the unreasonable risks. If the chemicals are used in plastics, then any subsequent restrictions could cause companies to find alternative materials. EXCESS PLASTICS CAPACITYExcess plastic capacity will likely persist even as destocking ends and demand recovers. NOVA Chemicals expects future expansion will be on pause until later in the decade. Lost cost regions like North America should suffer less than higher cost regions like Europe. SABIC recently started up its first ethylene and PE production in the US through its joint venture with ExxonMobil, while announcing plans to shut down a cracker in Europe. The company did not rule out further capacity rationalizations Produced by Plastics Industry Association (PLASTICS), NPE: The Plastics Show took place 6-10 May in Orlando, Florida. Insight by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows cups made out of plastic. Image by Shutterstock.

BARCELONA (ICIS)–The closure of chemical plants in Europe and elsewhere could remove essential raw material supplies, threatening the future of downstream industrial value chains. Global oversupply, driven by China, forecast to reach over 200 million tonnes/year by 2028 Interconnected value chains threatened if important raw materials cease production Globally 20 million tonnes of ethylene capacity may need to shut down to keep operating rates healthy In Europe 5.6 million tonnes/year of polypropylene (PP) capacity may need to close Integrated chemicals sites under threat if parts shut down Industry associations could help plan to maintain critical raw materials supplies Anti-dumping measures could protect exposed markets China polyvinyl chloride (PVC) overcapacity may increase exports globally In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Nigel Davis, ICIS Senior Consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

LONDON (ICIS)–Increases in crude oil supplies from outside the OPEC+ bloc of countries is expected to decline slightly year on year in 2025, with the US and Canada expected to remain the backbone of OECD production increases and Latin America driving the rest of the world, according to OPEC. The group projects that crude supply growth from countries that are not signed up to the declaration of cooperation (DoC)– encompassing OPEC member states and ally nations that have agreed to coordinated production cuts – will stand at 1.1 million barrels/day next year. Representing a modest decline from the 1.2 million barrel/day production growth OPEC projects for non-DoC nations this year, the 2025 increase is expected to drive total output from the region to 54.1 million barrels/day. The US is expected to drive a substantial proportion of the total production growth expected from non-DoC nations, representing nearly half of the total projected growth at 0.5 million barrels/day, while Canada is expected to increase output by an average of 0.2 million barrels/day. Latin America is expected to be the key source of non-OECD growth excluding OPEC+ countries, with output expected to grow 0.3 million barrels/day next year on average, a slight decline from the 0.4 million barrels/day projected for this year. Interest rates, inflation, geopolitics and reduced investment in exploration and production by oil majors as players seek to clip costs are all serving to cloud the picture on future demand and output, OPEC added. “The anticipated trajectory and pace of inflation’s decline, particularly within the services sector, are poised to influence crude oil production costs going forward,” OPEC said in its monthly oil report. “The potential influence of the present limited investment commitment in upstream E&P projected for 2024 and 2025 on production levels remains uncertain amid an ongoing drive for efficiency and enhanced productivity throughout the industry,” the cartel added. The organization left its 2024 non-DoC oil supply, global demand and GDP forecasts unchanged from its April report, at 1.2 million barrels/day, 2.2 million barrels/day and 2.8% respectively. Thumbnail photo: An oil well in Jebel Dukhan, Bahrain. Source: Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

LONDON (ICIS)–German economic sentiment improved further in May from the previous month following stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter, research institute ZEW said on Tuesday. Its sentiment indicator increased by 4.2 points from April to 47.1, the highest level since March 2022. Source: ZEW The Mannheim-based group’s assessment of the current economic situation in Germany was also higher, by 6.9 points to -72.3. Source: ZEW In the wider eurozone, ZEW’s economic sentiment indicator and current assessment were also up from April. “The confidence increases. Following the stronger-than-expected growth of the German economy in the first quarter of 2024, both the assessment of the current situation and economic expectations have become more favourable,” ZEW President Achim Wambach said. Signs of an economic recovery are growing, bolstered by better assessments of the overall eurozone and of China as a key export market. “The increased optimism is reflected in particular in the sharp rise in expectations for domestic consumption, followed by the construction and machinery sectors,” Wambach added.

NEW YORK (ICIS)–Chemicals distributor Univar Solutions is seeing relatively steady demand this year with greater strength on the specialties side versus industrials. Meanwhile, the North America reshoring trend is set to drive demand in later years as new manufacturing plants are built, its CEO said. “We had a good Q1. We saw modest growth in our industrial business and better growth in our ingredients and specialties business. Our results on [the latter] side would have stood out very favorably against our public peers in that space,” said David Jukes, CEO of Univar Solutions, in an interview with ICIS. Looking ahead, while a number of chemical producers expect a stronger demand pick-up in H2, there is little evidence to point to that at the moment, he pointed out. “Whether there will be a [meaningful] recovery in H2, I don’t see what that’s based on, other than hope. Hope is not a strategy and so we’re managing our business very carefully,” said Jukes. “We have grounds for optimism that we’re going to see some growth, irrespective of what the market does. Whether the market will have a H2 recovery, I have absolutely no idea. I think that’s based on, ‘It’s got to get better some day’. If it does, that’s great but I’m not banking on that. We think our future is very much in our own hands,” he added. Univar has improved its reliable delivery performance and customer NPS (net promoter scores) to record levels, with its digital channels helping to keep customer business “stickier”, as well as attract new customers, the CEO said. Demand for durables continues to lag, and there is no surge of restocking yet. “Consumers don’t think the economy is going very well… That’s [US President Joe] Biden’s problem right now. No matter how much you say it, consumers aren’t seeing it. Airline tickets and hotel rooms may be expensive, but refrigerators and cars are still on discount,” said Jukes. “We’re through all the destocking of last year but you’re not seeing wholesale restocking. You’re seeing people buying for what they need today and what they need for tomorrow [rather than longer term],” he added. Univar’s fast and reliable service model can help customers stock up when they need it, but one consequence is that it does not have solid medium-term visibility since customers are not ordering for six months from now, he pointed out. “We’re seeing steady demand. People are not expecting prices to fall and not expecting them to rise, and are buying things as they need them. If something fundamental changes in demand patterns, it would be nice, but we don’t bank on that,” said Jukes. HEIGHTENED COMPETITION LEADS TO INNOVATIONA more competitive market in chemicals is leading to greater demand for innovation when it comes to formulations, the CEO said. “When markets get highly competitive as they are now, the specialty players look for ways to differentiate their products. Our formulation labs and kitchens, and our applications development people are really busy being innovative,” said Jukes. “People will want to change a formulation, and create something different as a way of getting competitive advantage, particularly as you think about having more sustainable products in those portfolios. We’re seeing a lot of activity and growth in this area,” he added, pointing to more innovation taking place in the specialties and ingredients area. RESHORING/NEARSHORINGMeanwhile, the reshoring/nearshoring trend is pointed to boost demand for chemicals in North America in the coming years, with some impact already kicking in, he said. “This is happening, and macroeconomics and global events are feeding into that, whether it’s Red Sea disruptions, worsening relations with China or [turmoil] in the Middle East. We’re having them all at once at the moment, so there is a heightened trend to that reshoring and nearshoring,” said Jukes. “Some of that we won’t see the full impact of, for a couple of years because it takes time to build the infrastructure. But certainly for our North America business, we are seeing good signs, and that will only pick up over the coming years,” he added. DOMESTIC SOURCING AND TARIFFSFor many years, Univar has deliberately sourced the vast majority of its products domestically. Thus, even being a global distributor, the rising trend of protectionism through tariffs is not a major concern. “It’s been a deliberate strategy for us for a number of years… What it does create are some opportunities for us to move domestically sourced product for people who are being impacted by it. That tends to be some of the smaller companies,” said Jukes. “We source domestically and sometimes that means you perhaps find yourself on the wrong side of a very competitive product that’s coming in, but we’re not running this business for this month. You’ve got to take a longer view on this – you can’t live from transaction to transaction,” he added, noting that Univar is celebrating its 100th year anniversary this year. “We’ve taken a much more longer-term strategic view, and it’s served us well,” said Jukes. North America accounts for 75-80% of Univar’s sales, with Europe at 20-25%. The distributor also has a very small presence in China. Interview article by Joseph Chang

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Up to 29 April, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva may have been feeling optimistic: the economic recovery seems to have now reached all economic sectors, including manufacturing, where he promised to create more and better paid jobs. However, on 27 April heavy rainfall started in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul and two days later, large parts of the state were flooded, hundreds of roads blocked, landslides were widespread, and a dam collapsed. More than 150,000 have been displaced. As of Sunday, the death toll stands at 136 and as many remain uncounted for.  In the 12-million-people state, it is estimated two million have been affected by the floods. While the rains have mostly stopped, many cities remain still at risk of flooding as the stream of several overflown rivers advances towards the sea. The state’s economy has come to a standstill. Not many GDP growth forecasts have been updated yet following the floods, but last week a report by bank Bradesco said output could be flat in 2024, compared with 2023. Rio Grande do Sul is the fifth largest economy in Brazil and an agricultural stronghold, concentrating around 70% of the country’s rice output. It is estimated 10% of it could have been lost, and Lula has said imports will be stepped up to cover for any shortfall of the grain, which is on every Brazilian table, every day. Petrochemicals plants at the Triunfo production hub, near the city of Porto Alegre, remain under force majeure, mostly due to the difficulty of bringing workers in, and fertilizers players fear a hit to demand as the planting season for some crops is set to be affected. KATRINA 2005; RIO GRANDE DO SUL 2024As the days went by, the extent of the disaster was becoming clearer, and the scenes broadcast to the world from Rio Grande do Sul were sadly very similar to those seen in 2005 in the US in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Financial newswire Bloomberg quickly came up with the analogy: Brazil’s worst floods in nearly a century were Lula’s ‘Katrina moment’. US former President George W Bush became the quintessential example of lack of leadership skills in a crisis and, many criticized, lack of compassion for the Black residents of poorer areas of New Orleans, which were practically left to fend for their own. “His [Lula’s] advisers say he’s keenly aware this may be his ‘Katrina moment,’ a reference to the 2005 hurricane that caught US President George W Bush off guard and entered the global lexicon as shorthand for the failure of leadership in a crisis,” said Travis Waldron on 9 May on Bloomberg. “The response to the devastation is particularly important for Lula’s leftist presidency, premised on the philosophy that governments should do more to meet the people’s basic needs. The tragedy has consumed Lula’s government.” Hurricane Katrina caused 1,836 fatalities and the economic damage was estimated at between $97 billion and $145.5 billion. LULA AND HIS PLACE IN HISTORYSeventy-eight-year-old Lula is a true post-modern, spinning-expert politician. Brazilian newspapers often report on his inaccuracies in speeches and, just last week, he and his Workers Party (PT) were under scrutiny after Lula took part in a rally which could be in breach of electoral regulations. Under his spinning, Lula wanted his third term – Lula 3, to differentiate it from the first and second terms between 2003 and 2011 – to be remembered as the Administration that “re-built” Brazil after Jair Bolsonaro’s pandemic-hit and rather divisive term (2019-2023). Facing his biggest test yet, Lula’s response during the first week of the disaster was rather slow. However, as the country enters the third week of the calamity, there are indications Lula is getting it, and has now put his government on turbocharge mode and practically all ministers are focused on Rio Grande do Sul. Following months of almost daily public quarrels between ministers in the coalition cabinet – Lula’s PT does not command a majority in parliament – the renewed sense of common purpose can only be a good thing for a country in crisis. Lula’s global commitments in 2024, with Brazil holding the G20 presidency and hosting the annual summit in Rio de Janeiro in November, and in 2025, when the city of Belem will host the COP30 climate summit, have now taken something of a back seat. Perhaps because of the authorities’ slow response, the country at large seemed to be on a wait-and-see mode during the first week, hoping for the best but fearing the worst. WAR EFFORT-LIKEBut when the disaster was apparent both government and citizens alike started a remarkable, war-like almost effort to alleviate the pain of gauchos, as citizens of the state are called in Portuguese. The President finally proposed the declaration of state of emergency, which can speed up the release of funds and the state’s wider machinery to assist in the aftermath of the floods, on 5 May: a week after the floods started. Parliament greenlit the proposal on 7 May, a quick turnaround considering Brazil’s standards. Finance and Treasury ministers have announced special credit lines for citizens and companies, and low paid workers will have access to special subsidies, while payments for other benefits they are entitled to will be brought forward. Lula has visited the state three times. Lula’s left-leaning cabinet does not hide its intention to increase public spending although, as long as taxation remains unchanged, higher proceeds can only come from higher debt, which has slightly increased under Lula 3. That’s another debate for another day. However, in what concerns the current crisis, further increasing the debt burden to speed up Rio Grande do Sul’s recovery will be good debt in any case, the state being one of the most prosperous in the country. As we enter the third week of the floods, for any of the 215 million residents in this subcontinent-like country the disaster is now inescapable and calls for action are everywhere. From workplaces to residential buildings, from schools to universities, from civil associations to companies, there is practically no place where an effort to collect goods, food, and money is not being deployed. And, in a country where poverty levels are still very high, it is humbling to see that some of those who have very little are giving a little bit, something. When tragedy strikes next door, it is hard not to be moved. Some personal thoughts to wrap up. Living in Brazil and wishing this rich country could deliver more of its wealth to many more of its people, one can only hope Lula does not repeat a ‘Bush moment’, not for his own sake or his place in History books, but for the sake of gauchos and Brazilians at large. Hurricane Katrina and, mostly and foremost, the poor way its aftermath was handled left deep scars which are still evident. In 2019, a long 14 years after the Hurricane, this correspondent visited outer areas of New Orleans and, indeed, they were in stark contrast with the quickly refurbished, fancy-again, and tourism-heavy city center. For many residents of the suburbs, most of them Black, President Barack Obama’s promises of reconstruction never materialized, while his successor Donald Trump seemed to ignore the issue altogether, they said. The same cannot happen to the dynamic and prosperous Rio Grande do Sul, an export-intensive and diversified economy accustomed to trade with the rest of the world as much as with other Brazilian states. The state has an edge in several economic sectors, not only in agriculture but also in industry and services. Its GDP per capita stood at Brazilian reais (R) 50,700 ($9,830), versus a national average of R42,250, according to the country’s statistics office IBGE. The poorest state in Brazil, Maranhao in the north, had a GDP per capita of R17,500. Rio Grande do Sul’s ambitions go as far as having some wineries, a rarity in what is considered a Tropical country. It is the only state to produce wine because, given its southernmost latitude, it has an actual winter – of sorts – and wine connoisseurs will know grapes can only thrive with cold in winter months and decent heat in the summer. Brazil needs more states like Rio Grande do Sul, so any setback to its economic development must be averted. Brazilian politicians, often more focused on themselves than in those they are meant to serve, have a golden opportunity to show to the world that this is the new Brazil they have been promising for decades. The steps announced in the second week of the disaster go in the right direction. Brazil’s economy and its macro stability leave room for the state to step in and support citizens and companies in Rio Grande do Sul at their time of most need. The political tits-for-tats of the first week, with exchange of futile accusations between the conservative-led state and the left-led Federal Administration, while on the ground the disaster was exploding, cannot be repeated. “Public anger over the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic by his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, helped propel Lula to a narrow victory in Brazil’s 2022 presidential contest. Now he faces a calamity of his own,” concluded Bloomberg’s Waldron. “Lula’s response could help him regain public approval of his leadership — or propel his presidency into a downward spiral that he can’t escape.” ($1 = R5.16) The second part of this article, to be published on Wednesday 15 May, will look at Brazil’s climate change-related challenges; whether extreme and rare events like the floods in Rio Grande do Sul could become more common; and the country’s preparedness for such scenario Insight by Jonathan Lopez

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 10 May. NPE ’24: Plastics industry headwinds likely to persist through 2024 Headwinds for the plastics industry including higher cost of capital, weaker household spending momentum and capacity adjustments will likely persist through 2024, according to a presentation by Perc Pineda, Chief Economist at PLASTICS, at this year’s NPE show. IPEX: April index rises for fourth month in a row on firmer pricing in northwest The ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) was up 1.5% in April month on month as production constraints continue to push contract prices up across some commodities, mainly in northwest Europe and northeast Asia. NPE ’24: SABIC eyes growth opportunities in Americas amid era of global overcapacity SABIC is looking for further opportunities for growth in the Americas as part of its strategy to navigate an era of excess capacity around the world, one that has led it and other producers to shutter capacity in high-cost regions, an executive said. Brazil’s Braskem deliveries safe despite Triunfo shutdown taking off third of capacity – CFO Braskem will be able to deliver material to its customers from its other three sites in Brazil after it declared force majeure at its Triunfo complex following heaving flooding in the area, Brazilian polymers major CFO Pedro Freitas said on Thursday. Brazil’s Indorama suspends operations at Triunfo, ports still closed, fertilizers demand to be hit Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul remains at a standstill from the floods, with Thai petrochemicals major Indorama’s subsidiary in the country also suspending operations at its Triunfo facilities, a spokesperson confirmed to ICIS.

LONDON (ICIS)–It is rare to see sulphur or sulphuric acid take center stage in Europe when discussing a lack of feedstock for downstream petrochemicals – but the tight supply of both have been key talking points in Q1 and Q2. Senior editor for sulphuric acid, Andy Hemphill, and Julia Meehan, managing editor of ICIS Fertilizers, take a look at the origins of this current tightness and explore any options the industry has to counter it.

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at the latest demand shifts in the smartphone market. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.